分析师舒心

There are currently two major positives that are coming but have not yet been released. The first is FTX's 16 billion repayment plan, which has been delayed for a month and is expected to be realized soon. Once this news is announced, it is likely to directly push Bitcoin to break through the 100,000 mark.

Another relatively clear positive is that Trump will take office on January 20 and Musk will officially serve as the Minister of DOGE, so the current price will definitely not be the top.

CPI is also in line with expectations, which greatly increases the probability of a rate cut on December 19. At present, the Federal Reserve has an 82% probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at that time. This will be a very good positive, because the first two rate cuts were on September 18 and November 7, respectively. You can see the trend of the currency circle after that, which has risen a lot.

In addition to the FTX repayment and Trump's inauguration mentioned earlier, don't doubt that a bigger market is coming, and this is also the beginning of retail investors changing their destiny. Are you ready?

Classic trend of bull market

Step 1: After Bitcoin breaks through the new high, it starts to suck blood, most of the altcoins do not rise, and a small number of popular altcoins are flying around
Step 2: When Bitcoin reaches its peak, it starts to pull back, and the altcoins also fall collectively
Step 3: After Bitcoin pulls back and stabilizes, most altcoins start to fly around

Let's analyze the key points of these two days and next week:

1: Next week, Nvidia will release its financial report in advance, and AI sectors Render, Arkm, and FET should rise!

2: Zhu Su re-bought ETH and SOL at $3090 and $211. The small cycle has not stabilized yet, so try to wait for it to stabilize before buying.

3: The speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan attracted attention, and the possibility of a rate hike in December is 53%, which increases the risk in December.

4: Powell spoke at 4 a.m., saying that there is no need to cut interest rates in the near future, and the market plunged.

5: GSR Markets may become a market maker for TAI, and it received 5 million TAI yesterday.

6: There is still one month before Christmas. In the past, there was a wave of adjustments around Christmas, that is, there will be adjustments in late December.

7: Since winning the presidential election on November 5, ETF has experienced capital outflows for the first time.

8: The next three time points in December will drive Btc up.

1: Microstrategy is included in the S&P 500 index.

2: Microsoft will review the Bitcoin investment margin.

3: FASB's new rules take effect, allowing companies to measure. If the cottage continues to sluggish, you can selectively continue to increase your position, instead of choosing to chase PEPE PNUT, etc., looking back at the cottages that others entered at low positions, and eating other people's melons is not sweet in your mouth.

Since it is a bull market, rotation is inevitable. After several rounds of bull and bear baptism, the way to play this round is not to move easily in the bull market, don't fomo when you see a surge, and don't be discouraged when you see your own market lying down. Move quickly, and if you really can't move, then consider changing positions. Don't think about making all the money, and don't always think about the band. You must be in line with the reality of the market, and don't always think about making money from all the rotating sectors. In the end, it is easy to wave and make nothing.

This round of super bull market, everything is just beginning.

Series 1 of 20x Altcoins in the Bull Market: For reference only
Not filtering but only counting, the coins recommended more than once are for your reference, the more recommended, the higher the ranking.
First place: Pnut
Second place: Bome
Third place: Doge
Neiro, Pepe, Sui, Ban, Act, Sei, Gmx, Fil, Daram, ice, terminus.
The high-quality potential coins mentioned only once will be analyzed later, so please look forward to it.

The AI track should be the second largest track in this round of bull market, only after the MEME track

FET: Ethereum ecosystem, a public chain deeply integrated with AI, including smart contracts that can write AI models

IO: An AI generative avatar project invested by Binance, with investment from Mark Cuban

RNDR: A decentralized rendering GPU computing network that can be used for the metaverse and AI

ARKM: AI blockchain trading platform

PHB: Domestic AI coin various hype

TAO: Grayscale holding AI coin

This round of bull market focuses on AI RWA SOL ecosystem and MEME tracks, there must be one on the bus. ​#DOGE飞”狗“在天 #BTC创历史新高

As soon as BTC retreated recently, many people said that the four-year bull market pattern of Bitcoin has been out of balance and the bull market is gone.

In the past two years, Bitcoin has risen from 15,000 to 74,000, nearly five times. Isn’t this a distinctive feature of the bull market? From the top to now, BTC has corrected by 24%. In the past bull markets, corrections of more than 20% were common. However, the current bull market has been shaken and washed for too long, and it is only a bull market for Bitcoin and has nothing to do with copycats. #美国8月非农就业人数不及预期 $BTC $ETH $BNB

In a bull market, the adjustment time of Shanzhai is generally not too long, and it can be completed in 3 months at most and 3 to 4 weeks at least. This is fundamentally different from the monthly adjustment of more than 1 year in the bear market cycle.

So, we will not hold on for too long. In principle, the main force will not let us easily achieve our profit expectations, nor will it exhaust the market sentiment. To put it more bluntly, the main force wants to cut the leeks, but it will not cut the leeks completely. It will explode again in the future and cut the next batch of leeks. The main force will repeat this cycle and take the long-term sustainable development path.

At present, we have no other way but to move forward firmly. We believe that we will eventually get through it, break through the siege of sluggish prices, walk out of the darkness of the wash, and usher in the light of a sharp rise in prices. #美联储何时降息？ #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 $BTC $ETH $BNB #杰克逊霍尔年会

Stick to the belief in the leader
1. Always study the main leader and always participate in the main leader.

2. Don't be blinded by one leaf, you must have a big picture of the leader.

3. Don't participate in non-mainline, don't participate without the leader!

4. Always believe that the leader has many lives. If it is easy to die, it is not the leader.

5. Always buy the leader at the point where the divergence turns to consensus, and buy the leader when it is not consistent.

6. Choose the leader and find the buying point of the leader, it is always like this.

7. Never be afraid of heights, because the leader is the safest! #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储何时降息？

Predict the trend of cryptocurrency this year
1. Fed rate cut: If the Fed cuts interest rates in mid-September, then the market may see a "gold pit" in the next month.

2. Black swan event: After the rate cut, US dollar assets may flow out of the United States to find other high-quality assets. This may lead to unpredictable events in the market.

3. Pick the bottom when the market fluctuates: When the market fluctuates, calculate the time from one month after the rate cut so that you can invest at the right time.

For example, if the Fed cuts interest rates in mid-September, mid-October may be the time when the bull market starts; if the rate cut is not until November, then December is the time when the bull market starts! #美联储何时降息？ #比特币大会 $BTC $ETH $BNB #美国大选如何影响加密产业？

The currency market plummeted, the non-agricultural data was not good, and the market was no longer speculating on interest rate cuts and rising, because interest rate cuts are equivalent to landing.

In the short term, we mainly observe whether Bitcoin 58,000 and Ethereum 28,000 can hold, which is also the previous low of most currencies. Of course, there will definitely be weak new lows.

This time, the global stock market also plummeted. Japan slightly exceeded the historical high and continued to plummet. The German stock market has broken the recent head. The British and French stock markets fell sharply with a small double top on the weekly line. The US Dow Jones was the weakest, with two weekly top divergences. The S&P and Nasdaq fell sharply to the monthly rising trend line. This time it is estimated that the rebound will continue to fall.

The interest rate cut is not enough to offset the market's concerns about the risk of a US recession. The Wall Street panic index VIX soared 50%, breaking through the bottom of a year. Intel and Amazon's financial reports were not as expected. The quarterly financial reports of Google and Tesla released earlier were also disappointing.

Last time, the panic caused a rebound of half a month. This time, the big break of 60,000 was a technical break. The last break did not last, and the next week, the big sun recovered the lost ground. Ether 2800 repeatedly did not break, forming several supports, so the position is very critical. We must be cautious this time. SOL's strong support is around 135.

If there is no panic plunge, we must observe more and wait until the short-term technical side stabilizes and wants to rise before buying the bottom. Prevent extreme market conditions from happening. #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $SOL #比特币大会 #美国大选如何影响加密产业？

How do you view the current situation of the cryptocurrency circle?

Retail investors are running out of patience, and there is a lack of incremental funds.

The interest rate hikes and stricter regulation in the United States have led to the loss of large funds. Domestic regulation is also strict, and it is difficult for project parties to innovate.

On-chain opportunities are limited, and there is a lack of sufficient incremental funds, so it is difficult for retail investors to reach a consensus.

The solution lies in the United States to release water again, increase market liquidity, Hong Kong to relax policies to attract more institutional funds, and optimize ETH on-chain transaction fees.

The current market is difficult, and retail investors have suffered serious losses from airdrops or buying local dogs, and spot holdings have shrunk by 60%-90%.

The market needs to wait for the United States to cut interest rates.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, grasp the trend and rhythm of the bull-bear cycle and maintain faith in the cryptocurrency circle.

The cryptocurrency circle is indeed not easy, but if you grasp the market trend and have firm faith, you still have a chance to succeed. #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $BNB

Many people say that this round of bull market is not as good as the previous bull market and is much worse than the previous ones.

Now the patience of retail investors is almost worn out, and the proportion of capital inflow is small.

Previously, large amounts of funds flowed out from American banks because of strict supervision, so you know, plus the sluggish environment this year, there are not many chips in hand.

Recently, there are few innovative things in the circle. Most of them are just the same old things. There are no new things with enough breakthroughs, which leads to the unsustainable money-making effect.

In this case, only when the interest rate is lowered and the liquidity of market funds increases, so that funds can flow into the market from more channels, the market can become active again.

Now the interest rate cut is certain, it is just a matter of time. We are optimistic about the fourth quarter. The rest is to persist. #美联储何时降息？ #BTC☀ $BTC $ETH $SOL