东山再起500

当时我懒得反驳他，这会儿无聊随便贴几张A股个股吧，看一下A股港股现在有多火爆。币圈？币圈是什么垃圾。一潭死水，还在这自我麻痹呢。

Is there still a profit-making effect in the crypto world? Bitcoin has risen from over 60,000 last September to over 110,000 now, Ethereum has gone from 2,600 to 4,200, while altcoins have been halved again and again. The key is that this is still under a bull market, and it's actually quite average, or even can be said to be poor.

I don't know how long it has been since anyone has heard the term 'hundredfold coin', let alone 'thousandfold coin'. In previous bull markets, everyone was looking for and discussing: which is the next hundredfold coin? Yes, it's not that there are no hundredfold coins, but rather who the next one is? When altcoins surged a hundredfold, they attracted a large number of retail investors from outside the market, bringing about a huge wealth effect. New wealth, in order to stabilize, then transferred to holding Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin continued to rise, and the prosperity of the Ethereum ecosystem also pushed Ethereum higher, forming a positive cycle.

However, this time, hundredfold coin?? How many people now view altcoins as not even a hundredfold, being thankful if they see a threefold increase. Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum completely rely on institutions to hype them up, while in reality, regardless of the application ecosystem, it is all stagnant. Funds are only pulling Bitcoin and Ethereum, completely neglecting altcoins and public chain ecosystems, ultimately resulting in a bizarre scene where retail investors are not entering, and institutions are hyping themselves. However, how long can this situation last? When Bitcoin reached a new high of 120,000 USD, it was calm everywhere. When Ethereum hit 4,800, it was still calm, with no discussions and no one showing interest. This is very normal; the wealth creation effect is too low. The key is, if a new industry and new market have no wealth creation effect, why should I go into this uncertain new market? New funds are not coming in, and the funds entering from institutions cannot afford to lose, so they can only continue to maintain. Now, the circulating Bitcoin in the market is decreasing, and the voice of mining farms is also getting smaller. The cryptocurrency market dominated by institutions is becoming increasingly distorted. Without a season for altcoins, can this false prosperity really continue?

The semiconductor stocks I bought in the A-shares have skyrocketed. However, I only invested about 300,000... Now A-shares are really hot, and to prevent a repeat of last year's history where foreign capital heavily bottomed out in A-shares due to the US interest rate cuts, we have learned to be smart this time. We are continuously cutting interest rates to drive up the market, and by the time you Americans slowly cut rates, we will have already risen, especially in the semiconductor chip industry, which is crucial for the future outcome of the US-China competition. This also indicates one thing: our higher-ups are betting on the fact that the US will cut rates in September.

This also reminds me of the drawbacks of the so-called democracy and political struggles in America. Even today, I still believe that the rate cut in June was the right decision, as the A-shares had just hit the bottom in June. Trump's tariff policy is essentially aimed at revitalizing American manufacturing. Some say it's to pay off the national debt, which is pure nonsense; the small amount of tariffs collected is nothing compared to the massive interest on the national debt. The goal is to prevent the hollowing out of American industries, which is actually very similar to what the Dragon Country did in the past: using tariffs to enhance the advantages of domestic industries while lowering interest rates to decrease financing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises, promoting the revival of American SMEs. At the same time, by using both coercion and incentives, making overseas companies return to build factories in the US with tariff exemptions, achieving Made in America once again. This combination is sound and the thinking is correct. In fact, while this approach may only temporarily raise prices, once American entrepreneurs build a large number of manufacturing plants through low-interest financing, the increase in domestic production will eventually suppress prices again and reduce inflation. However, the key point is: the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates. If they don't cut rates, companies won't be able to secure financing, and entrepreneurs won't dare to take loans to build factories. The tariff policy then becomes meaningless and merely raises prices; the little tax collected is not enough to cover the additional 0.25% or 0.5% interest on the national debt, rendering tariffs meaningless. Therefore, interest rate cuts must accompany tariffs. This is why Trump is so anxious and often criticizes Powell: you are making my policies meaningless!

Thus, the political struggles and so-called democracy in America create an extremely inefficient situation. In the past, I was also a supporter of America, but now I feel that, indeed, the American system is also fraught with problems. There are too many meaningless party struggles and inefficient decision-making.

If 111800 cannot hold, then we need to look for support at 108800. This bull market cycle will basically be confirmed to be extended.

Last September, it was thought there would be a gradual 25 basis point cut, but it unexpectedly came in at 50 basis points, which was very generous, coinciding with the last two months of Biden's term, showcasing some political achievements. Then it got to Trump; the market initially predicted June, but it was postponed to July, and then to September. It started with 50 basis points, then 25, and now it’s said there won’t be a cut. No one believes the Federal Reserve has no political bias.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits this week is slightly higher than expected, but not by much, so the impact is minimal. It is worth noting the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which is released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and serves as an economic indicator to measure the health of manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region of the United States. This number is actually much lower than expected, indicating that the manufacturing sector in some parts of the U.S. is clearly facing issues. However, since it is only in certain areas, the overall impact is still limited.

The focus is still on Powell's speech tomorrow. Whether this old man can be dovish or not may even determine whether the cyclical patterns in the cryptocurrency market are still effective. Sigh, you win, Federal Reserve, you have truly managed to make all dollar-denominated assets heed the Federal Reserve. What a load of nonsense indicators, sentiment, and liquidity are all useless.
The global liquidity index and Bitcoin prices continue to diverge, with the degree of divergence being the most exaggerated in the entire bull market cycle; it has never been this extreme before. As for sentiment, whether it's the Google search index or the fear and greed index, they are all irrelevant and completely ineffective.

Powell doesn't care about the crypto world, but he certainly cares about the US stock market. Just with the recent pullback in the stock market, if he excessively pours cold water on it, it will surely cause a significant drop in the US stocks.

In fact, the performance of the US stock market today is also putting pressure on Powell: Old man, hurry up and cut rates, if you don't lower interest rates soon, I will show you how I can die any minute.

Now Ethereum is like a company with a market value of hundreds of billions, but an annual revenue of only a few million. It really is that exaggerated. Without a thriving ecosystem, without a season of knockoffs, the crypto world is just a stagnant pool; it’s useless to keep pulling up a second pancake, this is unsustainable. Once you calm down, you'll realize there are problems everywhere; it has risen so much, yet the on-chain activity is still painfully quiet, with no heat at all.

怎么感觉币圈好冷清啊现在，明明比特币11万多，以太坊接近新高。可是无论是交易所还是链上都极其的冷清。甚至没有大A的讨论度高。散户快跑光了。

事实证明，光拉大饼或者以太是没热度的，太贵了，你别说大饼12万，就是新闻报道涨到20万了，身边的人也不会考虑进场了。这轮牛市对币的讨论度最高的时候还是上年特朗普币发行也就是meme币最高潮的时候，当时身边的人是真的有四五个人都在问怎么买币怎么下交易所，只可惜这个进程被关税和停止加息双管齐下给打断了。想吸引场外散户还得靠这些个山寨或者meme。大饼破新高12万4时，以及以太4800的时候，我身边没有一丁点的讨论，都在看大A，现在大A真的随随便便翻倍，12万的大饼和4000多的以太，对散户真的没什么吸引力了

All flat. This guy is still relatively calm, not getting carried away.

I really spoke too soon, over a hundred million, just like that it’s gone

This guy's best outcome is to stop now, the liquidation price of 4257 is too easy to reach, just a matter of a needle. Once these whales' positions come under scrutiny, if they don't stop, the current outcome will be targeted until liquidation, without exception.

The water temperature is finally about to gradually rise. The moment the pancake rebounds again will be the day when the counterfeit fully erupts.

The chart below shows the latest comparison between Bitcoin prices and global liquidity. Currently, it is still in a severe lagging state. Such a prolonged lag has led me to a conjecture:

The current Bitcoin price in this bull market may really be nearing its peak. The current global liquidity will correspond not to the Bitcoin price, but to the total market value of cryptocurrencies. This means that while the Bitcoin price will continue to rise in the coming period, its market share will consistently decrease, while the total market value of cryptocurrencies keeps increasing. I mentioned this phenomenon a long time ago; once it occurs, it is the moment of a mad bull.

After waiting nearly a year, can it happen?

Why do I say that human nature doesn’t change?

When Ethereum was at 1600, I called for a bottom, and the comments section was saying it would drop to 800.

At 2600, I called for a long position, and the comments section said it would drop to 1300.

At 3600, I said it would go up to 4000, and soon it reached 4800. Finally, the comments section had a unified opinion. Most believed it could reach 4000, and 4800 was also not a problem.

A few days ago, when it reached 4800, I said that after Ethereum hits 5000, the attraction would greatly decrease. Instead, the comments section was looking at 10,000. What the second coin was is no longer what it used to be, and institutions have entered the market.

To be honest, the current price of Bitcoin has basically lost all appeal for retail investors outside the market. It's hard to imagine someone earning a salary of 10,000 yuan buying Bitcoin at 120,000 USD. Ethereum is somewhat appealing, but after breaking its previous high, the appeal of Ethereum above 5,000 has also significantly decreased for retail investors.

Some people might say that retail investors are not needed and that institutions are enough; the US stock market is mostly institutional with very few retail investors. This is true for the US stock market, as it is the most mature market globally, but the crypto space is not like that. Institutions have only recently entered, and it can't instantly become like the US stock market. For example, last night, a small PPI data release caused Bitcoin and Ethereum to drop significantly, while the US stock market hardly moved.

Therefore, this market still needs a large number of retail investors. Institutional participation is increasing, but it is far from the level of the US stock market. A slow bull market like that in the US stock market? Don't count on it. If the US stock market reaches a peak and starts to decline, just wait and see how low Bitcoin and Ethereum can drop at that time.

The point I'm trying to make is that the crypto market still needs to attract a large number of retail investors from outside. The current price of Bitcoin cannot attract retail investors, and the appeal of Ethereum has also greatly diminished after breaking its previous high, while mainstream coins like XRP, ADA, etc., have already risen to high levels. So, to attract retail investors from outside the market, we still have to rely on the explosive growth of small-cap altcoins, especially meme coins. At this time, asking retail investors from outside to study which coins have strong technology is unrealistic. The only thing that could attract them is the explosive growth of meme coins, with daily increases of several percent or even over a hundred percent, rising every day. Coupled with terms like "crazy bull market," "altcoin season," and "get rich quickly," who with a bit of spare money wouldn’t want to come in and give it a try? The final result will always be the same; there are no new stories in the trading market. The process may vary, but the outcome remains unchanged because human nature does not change!

Rest assured, interest rates will still be cut in September. This PPI data is just an unimportant number that no one pays attention to; it is merely an opportunity for capital to drop under the guise of cleaning up high leverage.

As for Powell, even if he tries to use this as an argument, it won't change the outcome of the rate cuts. Because the composition of the Federal Reserve Committee has fundamentally changed this month compared to last month. First, one of the hawkish members resigned, allowing Trump to replace him with someone who will definitely support his views, and who will likely be the chair next year. Secondly, last month two committee members completely switched sides to support Trump, advocating for rate cuts. So now three members are definitively in favor of the cuts, while the remaining four, besides Powell, are still swing voters. This means Powell is becoming quite isolated within the committee.

This structural change is far more important than this insignificant data. Not to mention that the most critical non-farm payroll and CPI also indicate that rate cuts should happen.

US July PPI month-on-month annual rate significantly exceeds expectations, the market estimates that there is fear that old man Powell will use this to delay rate cuts again, although this data has not been very important in the past.

The K-line chart of pepe is becoming increasingly clear, making me more certain that the main force is washing the chips. Including popcat, they have all shown the same trend - a converging triangle.

The high point of this pattern is lower than the previous one, while the high points of the pullbacks are higher than the last, presenting a converging triangle shape. The price is gradually converging towards the right angle of the triangle, while the trading volume is decreasing. After the washing process is completed, the trading volume will increase, and the converging triangle pattern will be broken. The following image shows the almost identical patterns of pepe and popcat.

This pattern is a very torturous trend, with high points getting lower, but the decline does not break the previous low point, accompanied by decreasing trading volume. Many people's chips are either cleaned out during the repeated and frequent trading process (for example, the recent large holder of pepe, James Vyn, repeatedly going long and short until zero), or they lose confidence and abandon their chips after prolonged torment (many retail investors). The operators completed the washing process through this method, clearing the chips of those who bought the bottom in April.

I saw a very good phenomenon, the big pie dropped two points, and there was no panic selling in the altcoin market. This indicates that market sentiment is slowly warming up, and optimism towards altcoins is gradually taking the upper hand. Just let them wash it, the longer it washes, the more it grinds on people, and when the price rises, it will leave people in awe.

Just be a little more patient, dawn is really not far away.

Funds in the market always gradually flow into the hands of those who are patient.

Together with Dong Ge, witness the arrival of that day.

You see pepe struggling and feel despair, but to me, pepe looks like eth three months ago. I just want to keep increasing my position, worrying that I don't have enough chips.