东山再起500

If the cyclical patterns of the cryptocurrency market still hold, then the next half month is the final window period. Whether a bull market can come will depend on this last half month. Bitcoin's market share has risen again to 63.9%. Based on past bull market experiences, a market share above 64% is already considered a very high proportion, and it will gradually decline into altcoin season. Meanwhile, according to cyclical patterns, this round of bull market in the cryptocurrency world will end after October this year. The remaining months of July, August, September, and October are the last chances for altcoins to inflate and sell. Otherwise, the time is too short; the operating time and space are simply insufficient for the whales. Therefore, we have already entered the final critical time stage. Based on Bitcoin's implied volatility, Bitcoin's implied volatility has recently dropped to the low point of September 2023, which means that the cryptocurrency market will soon determine its direction completely.

It will either be a black swan that completely breaks the cyclical patterns or a bull market that starts adhering to the cyclical patterns. After a month of decline due to a black swan, consolidation usually requires two months, meaning that even if we do not enter a bear market after the black swan, the cyclical patterns will be completely broken and rendered ineffective.

I still tend to believe that the cyclical patterns will be followed; this can be considered a kind of faith. If there is risk, I will reduce my holdings in a timely manner. If I find that the direction is completely downward, it will mean that the cyclical patterns of the cryptocurrency market are completely invalidated, and I will stop loss and accept the loss in a timely manner while considering exiting this circle. Because the charm of the cryptocurrency market lies in its strong cyclicality. With this in place, the speculative value of the cryptocurrency market is far higher than that of the stock market. If there are no longer any cyclical patterns, then I believe that the cost-effectiveness of the cryptocurrency market is gone, and it is better to invest in stocks. So, this half month is crucial.

The super box of Ethereum ETH's two bull markets mentioned in my previous article is still oscillating within the box. Last week, it completely broke through the box and surged past the 2857 high point, and I thought the market had started. Unexpectedly, the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran caused capital to create a false breakout and return to the box, continuing to wash and oscillate. I estimate that many who went long with high leverage during this false breakout have already been liquidated and left the market, yet another large batch has died before dawn. This highlights the importance of risk management and position management.

Next, we can only continue to observe Ethereum's performance within the subsequent box and wait for the next breakthrough of the super box, which I named Super Box. My original viewpoint remains: a complete breakthrough of the Super Box and a firm hold above it would point straight to 4000, and it would also be the starting point of a crazy bull market.

Below are the four-hour, daily, and weekly charts of the Super Box.

The implied volatility IV of Bitcoin has fallen to near historical lows close to September 2023, which means:

- Short-term price stability: With lower implied volatility, Bitcoin prices may remain relatively stable in the short term, fluctuating within a certain price range without significant upswings or downswings.

- Potential breakout after accumulation: Historically, Bitcoin often experiences significant price breakouts after periods of low volatility. Although the current implied volatility is low, it may simply be the market building energy for the next major fluctuation. Once significant positive or negative factors emerge, prices may experience explosive increases or decreases.

What needs to be done now is to guard against black swan events; if no black swan occurs or the market withstands the negative factors, then the entire cryptocurrency market could see a huge surge. Specifically, refer to the collective surge in the cryptocurrency market after September 2023, including altcoins.

Therefore, caution + patience

Patience

Setting the stop loss too close is one of the reasons why many people fail to make money. You know in your heart why your stop loss is set so close. Either it's high leverage, or you don't even understand the basic structure, or it's greed, or it's a narrow mindset. If you overcome all of these, it is impossible not to make money.

The Ethereum weekly chart pattern is currently not looking good. We need to observe whether it can close above the box on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. If it closes negative or as a doji, it is best to reduce positions to lower the risk of spikes. If it closes above the box, specifically above 2800, then continue to be bullish.

I know that many people will criticize me for expressing the view of mad cow disease now. That's normal, just let time verify it.

Observe whether Ethereum can completely transform the pressure level on the upper side of the box into a support level during the downward test. There is currently this momentum. If it falls by 2 points as before, Ethereum would have already collapsed by 5 or 6 points.

The path to 4000 for Ethereum is smooth sailing, get ready to say goodbye to the 2000s.

I smell a faint scent of mad cow.

No need for many words.

Reminder, Ethereum is just one last tremor away from completely breaking through the super box in the two rounds of bull markets.

Focus on the two positions: 2820, 2857.

Mad cow will still come, it's just that the timing prediction was a bit off, so be patient and wait. All I can say is that the left-side trading was not done well, and the timing for the market arrival was too optimistic. Now we can only focus on defense + right-side trading.

Trump: I'm free, you should also open a position, shall we put on a show together?
Musk: No problem
Trump: Let's say something harsh, give the market a little shock
Musk: Got it, don't worry

Last night, Tesla plummeted by 17%, tonight it is expected to soar, the market is unpredictable, we must manage the risks well.

Pay attention to tonight's non-farm payroll report.

Article from May 8. Let's see if the prediction comes true. Will the non-farm payrolls surprise on the day after tomorrow?

Many of my previous articles were swallowed for some reason.

In May, the ADP employment number in the U.S. was 37,000, with an expectation of 110,000 and a previous value of 62,000.

The ADP employment number, officially known as the ADP Employment Report, is an employment survey report published by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. This report mainly tracks employment trends in the U.S. private sector and is considered one of the important indicators of the health of the U.S. job market.

The ADP employment report is often referred to as the "little non-farm" because it is released on the first Wednesday of each month, ahead of the non-farm payroll report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the first Friday of each month, serving as a leading indicator for non-farm employment.

Previously, I predicted that the non-farm payroll on June 5 would be a big surprise, and the little non-farm ADP has already shown a surprise, so it is very likely that the non-farm data the day after tomorrow will turn out to be a big surprise as I expected.

Can this sand b shut up?

Shielding noise, global M2 is still reaching new highs.

Trade, always pay attention to the market, but don't overdo it; filter out the noise. If you're afraid of liquidation, set your stop-loss. Celebrate when it's time, and remember that position management is very important. If you can't sleep at night, can't enjoy tea, and can't think about food because of your positions, and you can't even enjoy the festivities, then you shouldn't doubt that your position management is not done well, and the risk is too high.

When chatting with trading experts, they will definitely talk to you about position management and mindset management rather than candlestick charts and financial theories.

When chatting with trading masters, they will definitely discuss philosophical questions and life insights.

I don't think the upward trend has ended; I will continue to go long. However, the pullback of altcoins is indeed surprising to me, as many altcoins' weekly support levels have not held, and they are still very weak.

The clear leader of this bull market in meme tokens is definitely Pepe, which has become almost a market consensus. A leader means that while it may not have the highest gains, it will certainly not be left behind when there is a market trend, and it has stronger support. If you are optimistic about memes, Pepe is definitely a coin that cannot be overlooked.

The image below shows Trump's latest tweet, and Musk has also tweeted images featuring Pepe in the background. Just like Doge in the last bull market, Pepe's performance will gradually influence the nerves of the meme sector. As long as you are optimistic about the meme sector, holding Pepe can serve as a ballast to some extent. Even during last year's massive drop in August and this year's significant drop due to tariffs, Pepe did not break through key positions during these two epic corrections, and particularly this year's tariff drop, its performance was even better than ETH, showing very strong support. I remain optimistic about the subsequent market trends; surpassing SHIB is just a matter of time.