币圈胡先生

8.7 Financial News Early Edition
1. Trump claims the U.S. will impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors.
2. Last night, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with Apple surging over 5%. The Dow rose 0.19%, the Nasdaq rose 1.21%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.73%.
3. Apple announced it will collaborate with Samsung to launch innovative chip manufacturing technology to supply products like the iPhone.
4. The financing balance in the two markets increased by 8.868 billion yuan.
5. Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on India.
6. Indian media: Modi will visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin.
7. Three departments issued the "New Round of Rural Road Improvement Action Plan" aiming to complete the reconstruction of 300,000 kilometers of rural roads nationwide by 2027.
8. South Korea announced visa-free entry for Chinese group tourists starting at the end of September; the Chinese ambassador posted a welcome message, and the South Korean foreign minister reposted in support.
9. The 11th batch of national organized drug procurement reporting officially begins.

What is the impact of the Fed's interest rate cuts in September, and potentially consecutive cuts in September, October, and December?

First of all, the dollar will return to depreciation. Now that fiscal policy is loose and monetary policy is also loose, economic data is also fabricated, so there are almost no factors to support the currency. The only factor currently supporting the dollar is that Europe is doing worse. We can see the trend of the dollar; Japan and Europe signed unequal tariff agreements one after the other, which allowed the dollar to rebound. However, after encountering fraudulent non-farm data, it quickly fell back. In the future, it is highly probable that the dollar will continue to weaken, which is more beneficial for the U.S. to reduce its debt and restore trade balance.

Secondly, our central bank will also follow suit with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. The reason for the major policy shift in September last year was mainly due to external conditions from the Fed's interest rate cuts. However, at that time, Powell cut rates by 50 basis points to support Biden's campaign, which greatly exceeded market expectations. But then he saw that Biden's momentum was gone and instead chose not to cut again. This put us in an awkward position. Since our monetary policy shifted to a moderately loose stance, interest rate cuts have actually decreased. The main concern is that the interest rate spread between China and the U.S. is too large. If we cut rates first, all the money will be sucked away by the U.S. Conversely, if they cut rates first, then all the money will flow to us. So it’s a battle of high blood pressure versus low blood sugar; both sides are just wearing each other down. In fact, both sides are in a difficult position. Americans always feel that if they hold on a little longer, their local debt and real estate will explode, while we also feel that if we hold on a little longer, American inflation and its national debt interest will blow up. But in the end, it seems like neither side can explode the other. Our current advantage is that we are relatively unified internally, while the U.S. is in chaos. Trump replacing Powell might actually be a big help for us. Once the dollar tide opens up again, the external constraints on our domestic economy will be lifted. Monetary policy can take over from fiscal policy and manage the economy for the second half of the year.

In the evening, Lao Te will speak with important news. Everyone should pay attention to avoiding risks and strengthen their defense.

8.6 Financial News Morning Brief
1. State Council: Exempt public kindergartens from childcare education fees for children in their final year of preschool.
2. Shanghai Stock Exchange: In accordance with regulations, took self-regulatory measures to suspend account trading for some investors of Shangwei New Materials.
3. People's Daily Commentary: Allow more people to rent good houses.
4. Advanced Micro Devices second-quarter revenue of $7.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32%.
5. AMD fourth fiscal quarter net sales of $5.76 billion.
6. Last night, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively, with the Dow down 0.14%, S&P 500 down 0.49%, and Nasdaq down 0.65%.
7. Global nuclear power generation continues to grow.
8. The China Securities Regulatory Commission is working to strengthen constraints on third parties involved in capital market fraud.
9. Trump: Will announce drug tariffs within the next week.

Today, the A-share market is led by high-standard pharmaceutical stocks on the decline list. Last week's leader, Qizheng Tibetan Medicine, hits the limit down and leads the decline. Pharmaceutical stocks are trending, with no stocks exceeding 3 consecutive limit ups. The leading trend stock, Angli Kang, is nearing the limit down. Lide Man stops at 3 consecutive limit ups, surging and then plummeting; Asia-Pacific Pharmaceuticals drops 8CM, while Xinguang Pharmaceuticals, Nanxin Pharmaceuticals, Guizhou Moutai, Chenxin Pharmaceuticals, and Shutaishen also experience significant declines.
The pharmaceutical sector leads the decline in the entire A-share industry, with high-standard pharmaceuticals leading the way, indicating that the market is recovering and rebounding, with funds cutting across high and low, experiencing supplementary declines at high positions and rotational increases at low positions.
Apart from pharmaceutical stocks, the biggest decline today was seen in Dongxin Co., which dropped 11CM. This stock has experienced significant volatility with large fluctuations between rising and falling; buying high is not advisable, only low buying is recommended. Additionally, the PCB leading trend stock, Honghe Technology, hits the limit down as a supplementary decline.
Today's decline list also features a 'Heaven and Earth' board, with Shengtong Energy directly hitting a limit down, resulting in a 'Heaven and Earth' board. Recently, high-standard stocks have frequently shown this pattern, accelerating to a limit and then suddenly hitting a 'Heaven and Earth' large decline. Therefore, short-term limit trading requires caution, and accelerated relay trading with reduced volume must be approached carefully; if the wrong relay is made, it will lead to a significant 'Heaven and Earth' decline.

Opened on Tuesday, attention, urgent reminder to 250 million stock investors, just now, two major news broke in the A-share market: no nonsense, let's get straight to the point:
1. In July, the number of new A-share accounts reached 1.96 million, a year-on-year increase of 71%, far exceeding the level of new accounts in the same period last year!
In January, the total number of new A-share accounts was 1.57 million, February saw a nearly doubled growth to 2.84 million, March broke through 3 million, April saw a 37.22% month-on-month decline due to market fluctuations caused by tariff disputes, May fell back due to holiday effects, June saw a slight recovery, and July increased by 19.27% month-on-month.
Personal opinion: From May to August last year, there was continuous shrinking and a downward trend, while this June the market built a bottom and rebounded, and July saw a surge in volume, which aligns with expectations for year-on-year growth in account numbers. It is also worth noting that last October, the historical peak at 3674 points saw a trading volume of 2.6 trillion, which has not yet been resolved, indicating a need for larger incremental funds from outside the market to break through the previous highs.
2. The 2025 World Robot Conference will also be held from August 8 to 12 in the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone. Additionally, Zhiyuan Robotics announced that it will hold its first partner conference in Shanghai on August 21, 2025, where hundreds of robots will make their appearances, and a "mysterious new product" will also be launched!
Personal opinion: Today's rise in the robotics concept is driven by two news items: first, the global robotics conference will be held on August 8, and second, the global robotics sports event will take place until August 17 after the conference. Yesterday, it was emphasized that the main players in robotics were returning, so pay attention to buying on dips. Today, the sector has reached a new peak, and the next step is to explore opportunities for supplementary gains in the sector.
3. How will the market unfold next?
Today, the Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in the semiconductor sector, and the main players in A-share semiconductor chips have returned, including a significant increase in positions in the robotics concept. The technology industry chain is expected to take off in August. Remember what I said yesterday: in August, the mainstream focus will be on self-control, robotics, and restructuring concepts!
Tomorrow, the market will primarily focus on recovery, and then we will see the strength of the main line in August after the recovery! Today, as expected, it retreated to around 3547 points to build momentum for an upward attack, which reflects the trend of sector rotation and rebound. Tomorrow, on Tuesday, we will first look for a surge near 3590. The ChiNext is expected to have supplementary gains! The ChiNext candlestick pattern shows a small upward line following a doji star, indicating a stop in the downward trend and a quick return to an upward momentum, building up for a rebound!

8.4 Financial News Morning Briefing
1. Experts: It is expected that before and after the end of the third quarter, the central bank may again implement reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions.
2. OPEC+ has once again significantly increased production to compete for market share.
3. CITIC Construction Investment: The short-term bond market has a certain tendency to strengthen, pay attention to the new direction brought by subsequent incremental news.
4. In the first half of this year, the national corporate sales revenue has steadily increased.
5. The summer movie box office has surpassed 7 billion yuan.
6. The wholesale price of Moutai zodiac snake liquor has fallen below 2,000 yuan.
7. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September.
8. Japan's high temperatures have broken historical records, and the country faces a new rice crisis due to the heat.
9. Starting from August 8, value-added tax will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued government bonds.

In this round of US stock decline, unless the US really enters a recession, a drop of about 10% is about right and it won't be as severe as in April.
So, the game in this round of decline is whether the market thinks interest rate cuts are more beneficial or if a recession is more detrimental.
Is it that halfway through the decline, the benefits of interest rate cuts promote a rebound, or is it that a recession shock prompts Powell to intervene in the market?
Only God knows about this; no one can predict it accurately.
I only know that I won't make the same mistake I made in April (liquidating positions to wait for a decline but not buying enough).
Please remember: being overly conservative is a form of risk, and not taking risks is the biggest risk.
Additionally, if A-shares also crash next week, I strongly recommend stocks related to brokerages, or just mindlessly buy brokerage ETFs; it's a stable investment with a 20% return in a year.

Market Analysis
As expected. The pullback has arrived as anticipated; on July 22, I mentioned that the market was at its peak. At that time, I said that Bitcoin was very weak, just waiting to sell at the Ethereum 3900 position. Then both fell simultaneously. It cannot be denied that institutions are still continuously buying Ethereum, but they have unlimited resources, which you cannot compete with. Institutions can lower their position costs through long-term purchases. Now, let me predict a bottom: Ethereum around 3000, and for Bitcoin, first look at the support level of 10.9. If it can't hold, then it will go to 9.8. As for now, Bitcoin can enter a small position at 10.9. Then on September 18, interest rates will be cut, starting a major bull run. In August, many altcoins will suffer a significant loss. I will gradually release the altcoin levels, and if you want to ask about any cryptocurrencies, you can leave a message in the comment section.

《At 3 AM, Trump's Statement Shakes the World! The Federal Reserve's Shocking Reversal, Has the Bitcoin Bottom Code Been Deciphered?》
“Political big shots change their minds faster than turning pages, but the money bags of the capital market always keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's printing press!”

Plain language breakdown:
Old man Trump issued a harsh statement early in the morning, threatening to “immediately replace” Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but then backed down: “Forget it, I’m afraid the market will crash!” In simple terms, it means two things:
Discontent with high interest rates (implying a desire to cut rates and inject liquidity)
Afraid to make a real move (worried about the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency crashing together)
Subtext: The Federal Reserve will eventually open the floodgates; the flood of dollars is on the way!
The logic of getting rich through cryptocurrency + personal opinion:
Why should the crypto circle rejoice?
The historical script has already been written! In 2020, Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and Bitcoin soared from $3,800 to $69,000! This time, when he shouts “interest rates are too high,” it’s like he’s holding a megaphone saying: “Quickly inject liquidity! The crypto circle gets ready to take off!”
My exclusive operating strategy:
“Panic discount buying”: If Trump’s rhetoric causes BTC to drop to around $90,000, close your eyes and buy the dip!
“Interest rate cut expectation ambush”: Focus on staking tracks (ETH, SOL) and AI tokens (RNDR, FET) — when liquidity comes, the high leverage tracks will surge first!
“Hedging against black swans”: Use 5% of your position to buy Meme coins (PEPE, DOGE); if Trump really loses it and makes a change, these worthless coins might just bounce back!
Bloody lessons learned:
Last October, when the Federal Reserve hinted at pausing interest rate hikes, how many people hesitated and missed the opportunity? As a result, BTC rose for four consecutive months! This time, with Trump personally “forcing a rate cut,” do you still want to wait? What you’ll get by waiting is just missing out and getting hurt!
#FederalReserveInterestRateDecision #PowellCommentsMarketAdjustsRateCutExpectations

Breaking: Financial Black Friday + Little Black Swan Crashes US Stocks and Cryptocurrency
1. Last night, the non-farm payroll data came in unexpectedly low, causing US stocks to open lower. At 2 AM, it was revealed that the data was fabricated, and the person responsible was none other than the President of the United States. This kind of absurd event has never happened in human history before. US stocks directly plummeted, and the cryptocurrency market followed suit.
2. One hour later, the President issued another statement (image), and he did not forget to emphasize in the last sentence: The United States is thriving.
3. The cryptocurrency market has once again reached a watershed moment—some anticipate a bullish trend by the end of the year, predicting ETH in the five figures, while others foresee a bearish trend, predicting three figures. Five figures or three figures? A bull market sprint or a bear market abyss? What you've heard are other people's choices.
What truly matters is how you choose.
#CryptoMarketCorrection #NonFarmEmploymentData #USTariffs
$ETH

【Bitcoin Suddenly Plummets! These Key Points You Need to Know】
Bitcoin has caused quite a stir today! It plummeted from a high of $120,000 directly down to $116,000, setting a new three-week low, and the entire market is in chaos — with a total liquidation of $631 million across the network. The current price is fluctuating between $113,000 and $115,000, and the key point is that it broke below the important support level of $117,000, triggering a chain reaction, leading to panic in the community.
Why did it drop so sharply? There are several reasons:
The Federal Reserve has announced interest rate hikes, coupled with escalating international tensions, creating a double whammy that has investors feeling anxious;
Major institutions have also begun to liquidate their positions on a large scale (selling off holdings to reduce risk), leading to a lack of buy orders around $115,000, which worsened liquidity;
On-chain data shows that the "Greed Index" has declined (indicating a shift from euphoria to calmness, even bordering on panic), while large whales have started transferring large amounts of funds, possibly reallocating their holdings;
From a technical standpoint, the price has broken key levels, and combined with poor macroeconomic conditions, these two factors together have caused the drop to be like a runaway wild horse.
For friends looking to buy the dip or stop losses, pay attention to these key points and strategies:
✅ Focus on the "Market Liquidation Zone" at $114,000, where there are sell orders for 320,000 BTC; if the price hits this point, there could be a wave of selling pressure;
✅ Don’t dump all your money at once; it’s recommended to buy 10% of your position every time the price drops by $500 (for example, buy 10% if it drops to $110,000, then another 10% if it drops to $109,500); this staggered buying can reduce risk;
✅ Keep an eye on the funding rate for USDT (currently at 0.03%); if this rate suddenly spikes, it indicates that the cost of borrowing money to trade cryptocurrencies has increased, which could signal a market reversal;
✅ If Bitcoin's volatility drops to around 55%, or if the long-to-short ratio decreases from 1.8 to below 1.4, options volatility reaches 65%, and the daily selling volume of miners falls below 0.35 BTC, these signals coming together could indicate a potential bottom is near, at which point you might consider initiating a hedging plan (such as buying put options to protect against further declines).
$BTC

BTCUSDT
Perpetual
113,532
-1.38%
$ETH

ETHUSDT
Perpetual
3,504.13
-4.81%
$BNB

BNBUSDT
Perpetual
763.51
-2.91%

24-hour major events in the crypto space! A 1-minute overview of the overnight market
Last night's collection of explosive information from Crypto!
1⃣ Cryptocurrency market declines across the board, with crypto-related stocks in the U.S. also falling sharply, of course, the three major U.S. stock indices also dropped.
2⃣ Trump is stirring things up again! He signed an executive order to adjust the reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries, creating uncertainty that worries the market.
3⃣ Good news but no rise, resulting in a big drop~ The U.S. SEC has launched Project Crypto to promote the on-chain transformation of financial markets. The SEC chairman stated that a framework will be established to allow parallel trading of crypto securities and non-crypto securities.
4⃣ The Ethereum Foundation dropped to 4th! BMNR holds 625,000 ETH in 1st place, SBET holds 438,200 in 2nd place, and The Ether Machine is in 3rd. A total of 64 entities are holding $ETH reserves.
5⃣ $PENGU surged temporarily, as the CEO of Fat Penguin revealed that the team has participated in U.S. cryptocurrency legislation and submitted a PENGU ETF application covering tokens and NFTs.
6⃣ The flagship coin of the Base chain, Zora, plummeted, dropping over 30% in two days, but the enthusiasm for issuing tokens is high, with its issuance volume crushing Letsbonk and Pumpfun for several consecutive days.
7⃣ You guys are too rich, the Ethereum 10th Anniversary Torch commemorative NFT minting consumed approximately $584,000 in GAS, with holder addresses exceeding 660,000.
8⃣ ENA performed strongly, rebounding over 5% after a big drop. This may be due to USDe's 20-day surge of $3.1 billion, with a total market cap surpassing $8.5 billion, and an increase of $2.8 billion in market cap in July alone. $ENA
9⃣ Can Hong Kong concepts still be speculated? The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulations came into effect on August 1, and reportedly, issuing banks such as Bank of China and Standard Chartered are expected to be among the first to be approved for Hong Kong stablecoin licenses.
🔟 Crypto is truly profitable! Tether's Q2 financial report shows a net profit of $4.9 billion. Coinbase's Q2 financial report shows a net profit of $1.43 billion, but its trading revenue fell by 39% quarter-on-quarter, while institutional business is taking off.
#Ethereum10thAnniversary

Latest news: Canadian tariffs raised to 35% by Trump, is the crypto market going to collapse?
Answer: 1. The tariff issue has been finalized, with Europe, Japan, and South Korea reaching agreements on tariffs with the U.S., which Trump flaunts as an achievement. The impact of Canadian tariffs on the market is extremely limited and is expected to be digested soon.
2. The drop of ETH to around 3700 at night was due to the PCE being lower than expected, which reduced the Fed's rate cut expectations for September, but this expectation has already been digested by the market during Powell's speech.
3. Currently, BTC and ETH are considered quality assets in U.S. stocks due to the support from ETFs. The fundamentals of U.S. stocks are strong, the tariff issue has been settled, and recent earnings reports from leading U.S. companies have exceeded expectations. The view on the crypto market warming up in August remains unchanged.
# U.S. initial jobless claims # Federal Reserve interest rate decision # Crypto market decline $BTC $ETH

Someone has to pay for this feast in the end