紫英草
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Based on this indicator, it is possible to run away before October
CryptoChan
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【Indicator Update】
1067 days from the cycle low in 2015 to the bull market high ($19666)
1060 days from the cycle low in 2018 to the bull market high ($69000)
It has been 884 days since the cycle low in 2022
1067 days from the cycle low in 2015 to the bull market high ($19666)
1060 days from the cycle low in 2018 to the bull market high ($69000)
It has been 884 days since the cycle low in 2022
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《Little Lessons in Playing Contracts》
Before, in February and March, I followed a big guy to play contracts for the first time. The big guy asked me to prepare some money and set the parameters according to the parameters he gave me. At that time, Bitcoin was just bursting, and for safety reasons, I asked me to pull the forced liquidation price to a low enough level (within 50,000). I set it up like this with the idea that it is better to make less money than to make no money or even to blow up the position.
In the end, it was indeed relatively smooth. I slept on the night when it broke 69,000. The 10,000-point retracement did not blow me up. Later, I closed it at 68,000. I was quite happy to make a lot of money. At that time, I didn’t expect Bitcoin to go all the way to 73,000.
Later, when Bitcoin retreated to more than 60,000, I followed the big guy to short, and ended up being trapped. It was just that the forced liquidation price was high enough to not blow up (79,000), but it was still very uncomfortable because of the floating loss. Although I later added margin, I still took a few days to close it. Now I think if I didn’t close it at that time, I would have made money on this order.
To be honest, it is really uncomfortable to resist orders, a kind of taste of putting yourself on the fire rack. I haven't played with contracts since that order. It's not that I won't play anymore, but I'm just not in the mood for it right now.
It's best to keep the forced liquidation price far enough away when playing with contracts. If the general direction is fine, you can theoretically make money, but you need to have a strong enough mental quality, which is perhaps the most difficult part.
Before, in February and March, I followed a big guy to play contracts for the first time. The big guy asked me to prepare some money and set the parameters according to the parameters he gave me. At that time, Bitcoin was just bursting, and for safety reasons, I asked me to pull the forced liquidation price to a low enough level (within 50,000). I set it up like this with the idea that it is better to make less money than to make no money or even to blow up the position.
In the end, it was indeed relatively smooth. I slept on the night when it broke 69,000. The 10,000-point retracement did not blow me up. Later, I closed it at 68,000. I was quite happy to make a lot of money. At that time, I didn’t expect Bitcoin to go all the way to 73,000.
Later, when Bitcoin retreated to more than 60,000, I followed the big guy to short, and ended up being trapped. It was just that the forced liquidation price was high enough to not blow up (79,000), but it was still very uncomfortable because of the floating loss. Although I later added margin, I still took a few days to close it. Now I think if I didn’t close it at that time, I would have made money on this order.
To be honest, it is really uncomfortable to resist orders, a kind of taste of putting yourself on the fire rack. I haven't played with contracts since that order. It's not that I won't play anymore, but I'm just not in the mood for it right now.
It's best to keep the forced liquidation price far enough away when playing with contracts. If the general direction is fine, you can theoretically make money, but you need to have a strong enough mental quality, which is perhaps the most difficult part.
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Mark it
Crypto飞哥
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In September, even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, US stocks may experience a pullback
Making a guess that might backfire. The current market is too crazy and has already priced in a lot of expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Therefore, according to the iron rule of 'Buy the rumor, sell the news', it is highly likely that after the official announcement of the rate cut, there may be a pullback of about 10% (to be completed within 2 weeks). The overall peak prediction will be in October-November, after which the market's heat is expected to drop sharply, and stock indices are estimated to pull back by 30% or more.
From the monthly chart, US stocks have risen for 5 consecutive months. Based on past monthly chart analysis, a small pullback usually occurs after five consecutive months of increases. Therefore, the best scenario for September should be consolidation, and I am not optimistic about September's single-month returns. It may be wise to hold some funds on the sidelines and, when a downward trend occurs, to buy the dip and continue to go long!
Making a guess that might backfire. The current market is too crazy and has already priced in a lot of expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Therefore, according to the iron rule of 'Buy the rumor, sell the news', it is highly likely that after the official announcement of the rate cut, there may be a pullback of about 10% (to be completed within 2 weeks). The overall peak prediction will be in October-November, after which the market's heat is expected to drop sharply, and stock indices are estimated to pull back by 30% or more.
From the monthly chart, US stocks have risen for 5 consecutive months. Based on past monthly chart analysis, a small pullback usually occurs after five consecutive months of increases. Therefore, the best scenario for September should be consolidation, and I am not optimistic about September's single-month returns. It may be wise to hold some funds on the sidelines and, when a downward trend occurs, to buy the dip and continue to go long!
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Yes
麻子新
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As someone who has experienced more than two bull markets, I sincerely have a few insights, all of which are hard-earned experiences from my own mistakes that have caused me considerable losses!
First, stop always thinking about making short-term trades.
At this stage, the market is in the mid to late phase of a bull market, coupled with favorable factors like interest rate cuts, and the price can change dramatically in an instant. Corrections often just serve as a breather after a significant rise, resulting in many people trying to catch the bottom and sell at the top, thus missing the main upward trend.
Especially during a bull market, sometimes the price rise is just a straight line on a five-minute candlestick chart, and if you react slowly, you get left behind.
If you really want to make short-term trades, it’s not impossible—but you have to pick moments when there is a first breakthrough of a large round number or a historical resistance level, and just make small moves; absolutely do not be greedy.
Second, stop trying to guess the top.
In the mid to late bull market, especially when there are significant positive factors, trying to guess the top is simply asking for trouble. When the market is about to force a short squeeze, you might see various indicators diverging, feeling that a pullback is due, but it just doesn’t fall. By the time you wait long enough, the price increase has already taken off.
The real top is actually very obvious when it arrives; at that time, you will have plenty of opportunities to sell without having to guess in advance.
This point is meant for those who have positions—if you don't have a position, don't chase too high. If you want to participate, use a small position to feel the rhythm of the market, and save some bullets for the next more stable opportunity.
Third, stop buying more as the price rises higher, and definitely don't use leverage.
Many people start off hesitantly, waiting for a pullback, but the market doesn’t pull back. When they can’t stand it anymore, they bite the bullet and jump in at a high price, only to use leverage to make up for the regret of missing out.
This is a deadly operation—bull market pullbacks happen faster than you can imagine. Once your principal loss expands, it not only affects your future profitability but also directly impacts your trading mindset.
If you make a mistake, acknowledge it, wait for the next rhythm, and don’t think you can gamble your way back.
First, stop always thinking about making short-term trades.
At this stage, the market is in the mid to late phase of a bull market, coupled with favorable factors like interest rate cuts, and the price can change dramatically in an instant. Corrections often just serve as a breather after a significant rise, resulting in many people trying to catch the bottom and sell at the top, thus missing the main upward trend.
Especially during a bull market, sometimes the price rise is just a straight line on a five-minute candlestick chart, and if you react slowly, you get left behind.
If you really want to make short-term trades, it’s not impossible—but you have to pick moments when there is a first breakthrough of a large round number or a historical resistance level, and just make small moves; absolutely do not be greedy.
Second, stop trying to guess the top.
In the mid to late bull market, especially when there are significant positive factors, trying to guess the top is simply asking for trouble. When the market is about to force a short squeeze, you might see various indicators diverging, feeling that a pullback is due, but it just doesn’t fall. By the time you wait long enough, the price increase has already taken off.
The real top is actually very obvious when it arrives; at that time, you will have plenty of opportunities to sell without having to guess in advance.
This point is meant for those who have positions—if you don't have a position, don't chase too high. If you want to participate, use a small position to feel the rhythm of the market, and save some bullets for the next more stable opportunity.
Third, stop buying more as the price rises higher, and definitely don't use leverage.
Many people start off hesitantly, waiting for a pullback, but the market doesn’t pull back. When they can’t stand it anymore, they bite the bullet and jump in at a high price, only to use leverage to make up for the regret of missing out.
This is a deadly operation—bull market pullbacks happen faster than you can imagine. Once your principal loss expands, it not only affects your future profitability but also directly impacts your trading mindset.
If you make a mistake, acknowledge it, wait for the next rhythm, and don’t think you can gamble your way back.
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What a coincidence, I also entered the market because I saw the emotional index was low🤩
The strongest indicator for escaping tops and bottom fishing during the bull and bear cycles – it's hard not to get rich if you want to
If you like to observe sentiment, then this indicator is a legendary champion
Market sentiment is the most direct price feedback
Red box for bottom fishing, blue circle for escaping tops
The value range is
Enter the market gradually below 20
Sell gradually above 80
If you like to observe sentiment, then this indicator is a legendary champion
Market sentiment is the most direct price feedback
Red box for bottom fishing, blue circle for escaping tops
The value range is
Enter the market gradually below 20
Sell gradually above 80
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$BTC $ETH #山寨季來了？ #以太坊突破3700 This is the breath of a bull market, vibrant vitality, everything is striving to grow
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Congratulations🎉, it's been over a year, how rare!
CryptoChan
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Brothers, we made it through!! 🚀🚀🚀
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Hehe, I blew up, let's take a look at the escape time 🥳
CryptoChan
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__ Blast on, hot and ongoing😏
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Run when the time comes
CryptoChan
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In the history of BTC's major cycles, among the 5 main peaks of this indicator—
4 peaks occurred before the bull market peak (February 2013, October 2013, December 2016, November 2020)
1 peak occurred at the bull market peak (October 2021)
Currently, this indicator has also reached a considerable height
The indicator in the chart represents the number of coins held by long-term holders on the BTC chain (holding period > 155 days) that are in profit, as a percentage of the total circulating supply of BTC.
4 peaks occurred before the bull market peak (February 2013, October 2013, December 2016, November 2020)
1 peak occurred at the bull market peak (October 2021)
Currently, this indicator has also reached a considerable height
The indicator in the chart represents the number of coins held by long-term holders on the BTC chain (holding period > 155 days) that are in profit, as a percentage of the total circulating supply of BTC.
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Still holding on, just wait until the time comes to run
CryptoChan
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In June 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a small rally. In September 2020, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a large rally. In October 2024, this indicator broke 0.12, and then BTC experienced a small rally. Recently, this indicator broke 0.12.
The indicator in the chart represents the concentration of long-term holders (holding for >155 days) chips within ±10% of the Bitcoin spot price. That is, among the long-term holders' chips, the number of chips with a buying cost price within ±10% of the spot price accounts for the percentage of the total amount of chips held by long-term holders.
The indicator in the chart represents the concentration of long-term holders (holding for >155 days) chips within ±10% of the Bitcoin spot price. That is, among the long-term holders' chips, the number of chips with a buying cost price within ±10% of the spot price accounts for the percentage of the total amount of chips held by long-term holders.
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Impressive
Maybe you remember, maybe you forgot, at the beginning of the month, on the 9th, I gave everyone a warning in advance, be cautious when chasing highs, do not blindly look for new highs, pay attention to the risk of pullbacks! Double top pressure, pullback, short positions should take 100500 here, if it breaks below this, medium-term players should take 97000 and 93000, it hasn't been long since then, has it been realized? Does everyone still remember, did anyone follow the medium-term short positions? #比特币跌破十万美元
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You really have to be quite cautious when opening contracts.
The market crash time will not be now. If the market experiences panic selling, you should be bold enough to buy long and purchase spot positions. This article is valid for 3 days.
Trading Plan ｜ June 17
1. Why do I say the crash time is not now?
According to the behavior of the main force distributing their assets, the current market has already experienced two major levels of bullish distribution.
The first was when it broke through the new high position, marking the main force's first distribution dump.
The second was when BTC surged to 110,000; I mentioned in a previous article that whether the main force breaks the new high is not important. We are not the main force, so we don't need to care about where they push the price. We just need to understand what they are doing.
Now, we still need one more extreme bullish trap that makes people believe this is a new trend to rush to buy BTC. In this process, the main force will distribute the remaining chips completely. I won't go into detail about this today; I will post a weekly follow-up on the main force's distribution. If you want to see previous trend tracking, please refer to earlier articles or follow up this weekend.
The explanation here is to let you know that KOLs are placing a lot of panic short orders at this position. However, these short sellers will make some profit, but in the end, they will all be squeezed out by the main force's final short positions and will switch to long positions. Ultimately, near the new high, the main force's dumping will create a large-scale double kill of bulls and bears. I will screenshot this statement and post it again in a future article.
2. Current 4-hour buy points
The current 4-hour level is undoubtedly a bearish trend, having broken below the 4-hour EMA moving average group.
At this position, the first scenario is that the main force rapidly dumps, causing panic and leading retail investors to sell their chips, resulting in small-scale accumulation before reaching a new high.
The second scenario is a sideways movement plus a spike. If there is support for buying long, I will analyze the market and post accordingly.
The buy position during this dump is around 103,000. This dump has a certain probability of being relatively deep because sometimes the main force cannot control the spikes that occur during a chain liquidation. Therefore, do not use high leverage and risk being liquidated. You can use a one-position double-entry strategy, which means entering one position first, then adding more if it drops, or chasing if it rises. This way, the initiative always remains with the trader.
The reason for buying long at this position is that the main force will not break their established support for distribution before completing the distribution. Just like I wouldn't lift a stone to smash my own foot.
Thank you.
Trading Plan ｜ June 17
1. Why do I say the crash time is not now?
According to the behavior of the main force distributing their assets, the current market has already experienced two major levels of bullish distribution.
The first was when it broke through the new high position, marking the main force's first distribution dump.
The second was when BTC surged to 110,000; I mentioned in a previous article that whether the main force breaks the new high is not important. We are not the main force, so we don't need to care about where they push the price. We just need to understand what they are doing.
Now, we still need one more extreme bullish trap that makes people believe this is a new trend to rush to buy BTC. In this process, the main force will distribute the remaining chips completely. I won't go into detail about this today; I will post a weekly follow-up on the main force's distribution. If you want to see previous trend tracking, please refer to earlier articles or follow up this weekend.
The explanation here is to let you know that KOLs are placing a lot of panic short orders at this position. However, these short sellers will make some profit, but in the end, they will all be squeezed out by the main force's final short positions and will switch to long positions. Ultimately, near the new high, the main force's dumping will create a large-scale double kill of bulls and bears. I will screenshot this statement and post it again in a future article.
2. Current 4-hour buy points
The current 4-hour level is undoubtedly a bearish trend, having broken below the 4-hour EMA moving average group.
At this position, the first scenario is that the main force rapidly dumps, causing panic and leading retail investors to sell their chips, resulting in small-scale accumulation before reaching a new high.
The second scenario is a sideways movement plus a spike. If there is support for buying long, I will analyze the market and post accordingly.
The buy position during this dump is around 103,000. This dump has a certain probability of being relatively deep because sometimes the main force cannot control the spikes that occur during a chain liquidation. Therefore, do not use high leverage and risk being liquidated. You can use a one-position double-entry strategy, which means entering one position first, then adding more if it drops, or chasing if it rises. This way, the initiative always remains with the trader.
The reason for buying long at this position is that the main force will not break their established support for distribution before completing the distribution. Just like I wouldn't lift a stone to smash my own foot.
Thank you.
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These coins have really dropped badly
Crypto飞哥
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For cryptocurrencies that drop over 50% in a single day, it can basically be said that the project is dead and unlikely to recover. A drop of over 50% in one day clearly indicates that the market manipulators have abandoned the project and fled. There are many such coins, for example: WCT, MASK, LAYER, etc. You can see from the price action of ACT that after the manipulators fled, it has been hovering at the bottom. Even though meme coins and AI coins surged recently, they couldn't lift ACT; it hasn't recovered in months. Don't think that a drop of 50% in a day means the market has been washed out; a more likely scenario is that the manipulators have run away. Don't easily try to catch the bottom of these coins, or you will find it very painful to hold.
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Hahaha, there isn't much money in the account
This is your 'Forever Earning Teacher'
In fact, tens of thousands of dollars can't be withdrawn.
In fact, tens of thousands of dollars can't be withdrawn.
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The market has dropped significantly
分析师舒琴
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Cryptocurrency Financial Bombshell! The Federal Reserve meeting is approaching; will there be an unexpected rate cut this time? Powell will unleash a flood of liquidity on this day! Ethereum is soaring! Is it going to hit 3000? I was stunned after reviewing the on-chain data. Is the altcoin season coming? Let's discuss Pepe's operations. Sudden news from ZK, can we still short?
The Federal Reserve meeting is about to begin. Will there be an unexpected rate cut this time? The outcome is surprising! Ethereum has broken its previous high! Have institutions increased their positions? After looking at the on-chain data, I couldn't help but break out in a sweat. Let’s take a look together with Shu Qin~
First of all, there is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which may change all current trends. Because at the June meeting, in addition to announcing the interest rate cut results, they will also release the future rate dot plot. This dot plot is the Federal Reserve's most intuitive expectation of when and how much they will cut interest rates in the future, and each time it stirs up a storm.
First of all, there is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which may change all current trends. Because at the June meeting, in addition to announcing the interest rate cut results, they will also release the future rate dot plot. This dot plot is the Federal Reserve's most intuitive expectation of when and how much they will cut interest rates in the future, and each time it stirs up a storm.
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Let's take a look next 👀
$BTC Currently, the short-term view is a 4-hour bottom divergence, the medium-term view is whether the daily line rebounds from the zero axis, and the long-term view is whether the 5-day line and weekly line can effectively diverge.
The market sees half potential for new highs and half for a bear market.
The key is how to firmly act based on your own positions and capital situation; it cannot keep rising, and it cannot keep falling! There will be signals at the top, and there will be signals at the bottom as well. If this time it didn't reach the top at 119, then be patient and buy at the bottom! Don't look at 130,000 as soon as it rises, and 80,000 as soon as it falls. Take one step at a time, eat one bite at a time!
There are 2 days left in the first week of the new moon, and there will definitely be a low point. From a technical perspective, the possibility of breaking 1068 is currently very low, so it hasn't finished falling yet; we can only wait for the bullish entry signal!
In the future, I will basically present market analysis through videos. This is my first time uploading a video, and there are many issues; I hope all the experts can be forgiving and also provide guidance~🤝
The market sees half potential for new highs and half for a bear market.
The key is how to firmly act based on your own positions and capital situation; it cannot keep rising, and it cannot keep falling! There will be signals at the top, and there will be signals at the bottom as well. If this time it didn't reach the top at 119, then be patient and buy at the bottom! Don't look at 130,000 as soon as it rises, and 80,000 as soon as it falls. Take one step at a time, eat one bite at a time!
There are 2 days left in the first week of the new moon, and there will definitely be a low point. From a technical perspective, the possibility of breaking 1068 is currently very low, so it hasn't finished falling yet; we can only wait for the bullish entry signal!
In the future, I will basically present market analysis through videos. This is my first time uploading a video, and there are many issues; I hope all the experts can be forgiving and also provide guidance~🤝
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Re-editing the article, right?
Why is everyone a god in the square? Why does everyone always post at precise entry points?
The reason is that after posting, one can edit the article content,
turning long positions into short positions 😂😂,
see the image below
Image 1: First, post an article calling for long positions
Image 2: Discover a crash and immediately edit the article
Image 3: The original long position in Image 1 is changed to a short position
Everyone should stay vigilant and beware of various scammers in the square!!!
The reason is that after posting, one can edit the article content,
turning long positions into short positions 😂😂,
see the image below
Image 1: First, post an article calling for long positions
Image 2: Discover a crash and immediately edit the article
Image 3: The original long position in Image 1 is changed to a short position
Everyone should stay vigilant and beware of various scammers in the square!!!
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Sometimes even the candlestick is the same, second-level synchronization 🙄
Quoted content has been removed
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In the car, too intense, really too intense
Over 4 billion long positions were established by the main forces within 24 hours! Do not short at this moment!
1. At this moment, BTC has returned to the long-lost 101000, and ETH has risen above 2050; I reiterate the content released at 2 PM today, do not short against the market at this moment!
2. The main forces for ETH and BTC have been almost crazy today, with over 2 billion in long positions entering for each coin within 24 hours, nearly 5 billion in long positions are about to explode the short positions.
3. Meanwhile, the long forces for BTC and ETH are decreasing, starting to turn into short forces, which means that there will be further upward trends and explosions of positions.
4. Outside the market, Trump announced that the UK has once again become his long-time friend, making some substantial progress on tariff exemptions, while the UK's automotive tariff restrictions have also been significantly reduced.
5. Half an hour ago, Trump called for buying again: now is the best time to buy US stocks. The US stock market is also surging at this moment, indirectly boosting the cryptocurrency market.
In summary, shorting in the short term is challenging, do not short now!
#BTC重返10万 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场盘整
$BTC $ETH
1. At this moment, BTC has returned to the long-lost 101000, and ETH has risen above 2050; I reiterate the content released at 2 PM today, do not short against the market at this moment!
2. The main forces for ETH and BTC have been almost crazy today, with over 2 billion in long positions entering for each coin within 24 hours, nearly 5 billion in long positions are about to explode the short positions.
3. Meanwhile, the long forces for BTC and ETH are decreasing, starting to turn into short forces, which means that there will be further upward trends and explosions of positions.
4. Outside the market, Trump announced that the UK has once again become his long-time friend, making some substantial progress on tariff exemptions, while the UK's automotive tariff restrictions have also been significantly reduced.
5. Half an hour ago, Trump called for buying again: now is the best time to buy US stocks. The US stock market is also surging at this moment, indirectly boosting the cryptocurrency market.
In summary, shorting in the short term is challenging, do not short now!
#BTC重返10万 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场盘整
$BTC $ETH
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