擎天柱

Two things today:

(1) I will not participate in deposits for the new L2blast created by the founder of blur.

My blur has already participated in the activity of staking to obtain blast, and I can no longer place another asset (eth) on the same project at the same time. If something goes wrong with blast, my eth and blur will go wrong at the same time, and I cannot afford this result. So for blast, I will only participate by staking blur, and will not use eth to deposit. At the same time, I looked at the data and found that more than 20,000 people have deposited into blast in just one day. If you don’t participate with large funds, I guess you don’t have many points. The way I get blast points by staking blur should be far better than using a little eth to deposit.

(2) Binance incident

The general content of this Binance incident includes:

1. Binance was fined US$4.3 billion and settled with the United States, and CZ was personally fined US$50 million.

2. CZ is about to leave his job and will no longer be allowed to participate in any business management of Binance within 3 years. At the same time, cz’s sentence will be judged in a final trial in 6 months. He is now expected to be sentenced to 18 months in prison.

3. The United States retains access to Binance’s ledger data for five years. In other words, for the next five years, Binance’s data must be disclosed to the United States.

The Binance incident has had a great impact on the industry. The largest exchange has finally bowed its head, which means that the industry has begun to officially turn to compliance, which is a sign that the industry is transitioning from the early to the mid-term.

Binance’s ledgers and systems will be accessible from the United States at any time within five years, which means that many funds that manipulate tokens will have nowhere to hide, or at least they will not dare to mess around on the Binance exchange anymore.
, including Binance’s own listing of tokens or IEO in the future, it will be very strict. These manipulated funds will flow to small exchanges or decentralized exchanges in the future.

In a word, the barbaric era will eventually pass, and market manipulation will be greatly reduced. At the same time, in terms of long-term trends, the future of def decentralized projects is getting brighter and brighter, and the trend is becoming more and more obvious.

11.15 Quick overview of currency circle data (neutral)
Fear Greed Index: 60 Greed
Ahr999 currency hoarding indicator: 0.69, suitable for fixed investment
BTC liquidation chart: support below $34971, pressure above 37275
Bitcoin mainstream miner shutdown price: $21269 (S19Pro+Hydro)

BTC’s biggest pain point: 36250
ETH’s biggest pain point: 2050
Market prices tend to move closer to the biggest pain points

24-hour long-short ratio: 47.66%/52.54% long shorts
24-hour liquidation: $300 million long orders: short orders = 6.56:1, accounting for about 90%
Total crypto market capitalization: 1.37 trillion

161 days until Bitcoin halving

Strong currencies: DYDX, TIA, CAKE, KAS, RLB
Recent large-amount unlocks: APE (November 17), ROSE (November 19), DYDX (November 21)

key message
Macro aspect (more biased):
CPI is significantly better than expected. U.S. stocks continue to rise and have risen for eight consecutive years. This is a sign of a bull market for U.S. stocks.
The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates for the first time by 25 basis points in June next year (90% probability)
Wednesday (11.15) 21:30 US retail sales monthly rate
Thursday (11.16) 21:30 Number of unemployment benefits

Currency news (neutral):
OKX launches based on X1 network. X1 is based on Polygon
DYDX unlock market breaks out and hits the price increase list
The market value of USDT increased by US$22 billion in the past year, while USDC fell by US$21 billion during the same period
Data: Bitcoin mining revenue reaches $44 million in a single day, setting a record
Bitget acquires OSL and enters Hong Kong with license

Market evaluation: The Asian market opened with general gains, and the U.S. stock market has risen for eight consecutive years. This is something that can only be seen in a bull market. It is expected that there will be an adjustment after a short-term rise. The trends of BTC and U.S. stocks are completely opposite, which means that in a tightening environment, funds in the crypto market are being withdrawn from U.S. stocks, but the adjustment is not expected to last long.

There are still 3 to 6 months left to prepare our positions.

Choose 20 targets that you are optimistic about, classify them into “head + blue chip + value + dark horse”, and make different proportions of allocations based on risk tolerance levels.

Then according to the general rhythm of the later development of the market, sell and exit in batches.

Taking high-risk and high-reward position allocation as an example, the possible rhythm and corresponding operations can be: (This is just an analysis of ideas, not investment advice!)

Q1~Q2/2024, probably even: fixed investment stage (6 months)
Q3/2024, approximately 100% increase: Fixed sell price of 10%
Q4/2024, about 300% increase: fixed selling price of 15%
Q1/2025, about 500% increase: fixed selling price of 20%
Q2/2025, about 700% increase: fixed selling price of 25%
Q3~Q4/2025, about 900% increase: fixed sale of 30%

On average, in the best case scenario, the profit after all sales is about 600%.

The reason for this is that no matter where the bull market reaches and starts to turn around and return to the bear market, you will most likely be able to lock in good profits. For example, by Q1/2025, basically all your investment costs will be recovered. If the market continues to rise later, you will get back multiple returns. Since the market is unpredictable, all we can do is make the best arrangements in advance.

The position allocation of different risks can be adjusted accordingly, but there must be a selling plan.

Of course, the premise for such consideration is that there will be a rising bull market in the future. This kind of planning is not a strategy to resist risks, but to ensure that we will not sell too early or too late due to human nature during a bull market.

Shipments can be exchanged for USDT or BTC/ETH, depending on whether you are U-standard or currency-based.

Why will the BTC ecosystem prosper? This is not fomo, it is what the market needs.

1. Miners and miners
BTC will be halved after May 2024. For them, it is directly related to the issue of income. Should they shut down for maintenance or participate with part of the profits? The prosperity of the BTC ecosystem affects their packaging interests. Although we don’t know what will happen to BTC by then, the prosperity of the BTC ecosystem is a way for them to steadily increase their income.

2. New direction of traffic in centralized exchanges
It has become a thing of the past for institutions to crowdfund and issue tokens on the second level of exchanges. (Of course, there will definitely be high-traffic institutional crowdfunding and token issuance in the future, but that is not a long-term solution.) At present, everyone is not stupid, and ordinary people It is difficult for people to get a share, but the Bitcoin ecosystem is relatively easier to participate in, and various applications will become more prosperous. In the future, there will definitely be leaders in BTC lending, swap, domain names, decentralized contracts, cross-chains, etc. This is the long-term new direction of choice for centralized exchanges. There will not only be one Ordi exchange, but there will even be a dedicated inscription section. For the sake of traffic + income + innovation, they will definitely participate deeply and long-term!

3. Ordinary people
Participating in the BTC ecosystem is an opportunity to turn around. Of course, it is very likely that you have chosen an unreliable project to take over and fell into the gutter. That is not the fault of the ecosystem, but your choice. It is because you have not considered the application level for a long time. .

4. Institutions
Large institutions will not participate in minting or issuing coins. Some of them will hold BTC or invest in relatively reliable projects in the BTC ecosystem. There are also some harvesters who are eager to try, but they often use unfair distribution methods. We will never participate!

Summary: By breaking the monopoly of institutions, ordinary people can have a chance to stand up. Behaviors such as minting transactions will bring greater benefits to miners. The participation and attention of ordinary people will bring traffic to exchanges and bring new currency listing logic and logic to exchanges. direction, this is a win-win situation for the three parties that can last for a relatively long time. Of course, it will also be accompanied by the rise and fall of BTC.

Seven Bull Market Guidelines to be added

🔸If the ETF passes, BTC will be 100,000; if it fails, the price will not drop much
🔸Bull market requires imagination, the most selling is flying, the band is very bad
🔸The protagonist of the last bull market was ETH, and this round is BTC
🔸In the past it was BTC>ETH>Copycat>meme, this time it is BTC>BTC Ecosystem>Others
🔸It is difficult for old trees in the BTC ecosystem to bloom new flowers
🔸Value determines bear market support, but narrative and MLM determine bull market gains
🔸Novices lose more money in the bull market because there are more traps

⛳Bitcoin halving is an event in which miner rewards are reduced by 50% and occurs every four years. The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur around April 2024.

Historically, after every#BTChalving, the price rises and reaches new peaks

The next#BTChalving price may go up or down from now on, but I still believe in history, a new peak is set after every#BTChalving 💪

⛳️This is my personal opinion. Do you believe it as much as I do? $BTC #比特币减半

Compiled the 90-day rising ranking of currencies that outperformed BTC. The strong ones are stronger. Among the coins here, they can still outperform BTC after a correction. What do you think?

The last bull market revolved around the ecological construction of Ethereum. DEFI, NFT, Gamefi, Layer 2, etc., witnessed the growth of Ethereum step by step.

I think this bull market may start with the explosion of the BTC ecosystem. Recently, the inscription on BRC20 is hot. It is a very early project. At present, some big guys are starting to pay attention to it. BRC20 is related to the most popular concept Ai. The product of the combination is very forward-looking and creative. At this stage, the construction of BRC20 has just started. I think this kind of narrative-capable project has great potential.

The number of $sats holders is close to 40,000, ranking first among all BRC20 inscriptions. There are many holders, and the current market value is close to 300 million US dollars. Brc-20 swap uses $sats as miner fees, which is the first This is the beginning of the real use of BRC20 inscriptions. With the development of some Bitcoin ecosystems, I think there will be more and more subsequent uses, and there is a lot of room for imagination.

At present, as long as there is a hotspot for inscription, everyone will frantically pump gas on the chain to cause a gas war. It reminds me of the time when everyone pumped gas to play NFT in 21 years. It was a very affecting experience. The development of the Lightning Network is urgently needed to solve this problem. This is a question. Currently, Nostr will be launched on fairmint, which is very popular. If you are interested, you can follow up. #BTC #rodi

Bullish on ORDI reaching $380. ORDI is fully circulated, making it fairer than all other cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, ORDI overlaps with multiple concepts and appeals to a wide range of people in the crypto community. Meme gamers and veteran Bitcoin enthusiasts come together.