牛总解盘

One of China's five major festivals: Dragon Boat Festival, zongzi hidden in hand:
ca:
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More than 300 days of OG foreign market, currently 5k, low market value, do not buy more

After the short-term price began to pull back on Monday, the bullish liquidity around 93,000 has slightly increased;

However, I still believe that the quick shift to bearish sentiment won't materialize so soon, as there are still three obvious bullish liquidity gaps below the current price;

Therefore, the current market seems to be waiting for this week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, and the probability of maintaining range-bound fluctuations is relatively high;

If the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at 2 AM on Thursday gives a hawkish or dovish stance, then breaking out or breaking down from this range would seem very natural...

After all, whether upwards or downwards, the liquidity in the futures market is somewhat insufficient, the bearish liquidity above is virtually non-existent, and most short positions may have already been closed before liquidation;

Moreover, there is relatively little new bullish liquidity below, not to mention three obvious gaps...

Therefore, allowing the price to fluctuate for another two days to continue accumulating futures liquidity before leaving the range can ensure that whether it goes up or down, it maintains continuity;

The current situation actually does not make me very confident about being bearish; I always feel that the fluctuations here will last a bit longer than expected.
The rising expanding wedge and the decline in spot premiums are indeed not very optimistic.
Let’s wait and see after the interest rate meeting.
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The relationship between price and liquidity

During the decline in the trade war, it was indeed after the long liquidity was completely cleared that the bottom was reached...

This is not to say that the manipulators did it intentionally, but liquidity itself is a price magnet;

From this perspective, the price is not intentionally looking to liquidate a position, but rather when a position experiences a large amount of futures liquidity, it will spontaneously attract the price;

Imagine you opened a position in the wrong direction, and then as the price moves in the opposite direction, if people who made the same wrong directional bet start to get liquidated in a specific range, then as the price gets closer to that liquidation price, there will always be someone unable to resist closing their position early...

The act of closing positions brings more momentum for the price to move forward, leading to more people closing positions to stop losses, forming a cycle, until the price enters the area where everyone has to close their positions, which is the forced liquidation area, and the positions that are wrong directionally have all closed, and those that needed to be liquidated have been...

Thus, the price loses its previous momentum and naturally reaches a bottom or a top...

So, in conclusion, it is not the price that is searching for a liquidation area to settle, but rather the liquidation area itself that is attracting the price!

In this process, the buying and selling behavior in the spot market acts as a trigger, while the actions in the futures market are a passively triggered chain reaction;

Can we conclude that in a market like Bitcoin, most of the time, the participants in the game are futures, which will accumulate liquidity in the price fluctuation range, preparing for the next trend;

However, during this process, the price will not show a clear direction until the spot market finally presents strong supply or demand, forcibly changing the balance of the futures market, leading to a chain reaction, and the price begins to break out, thus initiating a trend until the liquidity in that direction is completely liquidated
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During the price increase on Friday, there was no liquidation of short liquidity above 98000, which is indeed a point worth noting. If this indicates insufficient short liquidity above 98000, then the price is likely to gradually start moving towards the long liquidation zone;

Currently, the optimistic aspect is that the accumulated long liquidity below 95800 is not much, with the majority below 93000;

So subjectively, as long as the price does not fall below 92800 to trigger a long liquidation, the probability of maintaining a range is very high;

In the futures market, the purpose of the range is not to balance supply and demand like in the spot market, but simply to accumulate long and short liquidity until the liquidation intensity of either side reaches a threshold, after which it may act as a catalyst in response to some news or spot market fluctuations, ultimately leading to a breakout;

The current situation is that the range time is still not enough, and the accumulation of liquidity is not sufficient, so I personally believe that this kind of range may continue until new long and short liquidity accumulates close to the level of 96500...

In the short term, it seems that there is no trading value...

Prices always move in the direction of least resistance.

Whether it is long or short, the amount currently bet is still not enough to attract market makers or large funds to conduct directed liquidation operations, and thus there will be no significant fluctuations.

I just suddenly realized that when the candied orange confirmed the breakthrough of 95,000, there was a very large bullish liquidity at 76,000. Based on the price at that time and the position of the liquidation liquidity, it can be judged that it was exactly a 5x long position;

This indicates that futures bulls are finally willing to open larger positions!

Currently, there are clearly more people in the market expecting a pullback than those expecting the price to continue rising, so a lot of bearish liquidity has appeared again above the price...

However, it is worth noting that last night's market did not liquidate these newly added liquidity, especially when a breakout acceleration liquidation market could have occurred after breaking through 98,000, but ultimately did not...

Combining with the significant decrease in the proportion of candied oranges following the rise of U.S. stocks on Friday, we can speculate that the bearish liquidity above 98,000 may not be as much as we see on the liquidation map.

Therefore, to accumulate new bearish liquidity as fuel, we must use a long-term oscillation over the weekend to achieve this.

Thus, the current logic returns to last weekend's situation, which is that if a large amount of bearish liquidity begins to accumulate at 98,500, there is still hope for a higher high next week.

And if a significant bullish liquidity starts to accumulate below the price, the price may begin to pull back.

The current market logic is still not a spot-dominated buying situation, as the spot premium index has consistently remained at a high level without showing significant increases, indicating that buying is more likely to come from bearish stop-loss and forced liquidation. In this market, we should still observe more and act less.
Endure the solitude, and you can preserve the prosperity!