薛定谔的牛

大盘还没稳住，市场正处于多空激烈博弈的关键阶段，保持谨慎、多看少动、等待更明确的信号，才是当下最稳妥的策略。

Yesterday I warned of a deep pullback, advising to be well-prepared, but it happened so quickly and fiercely that even I was caught off guard. Are we really preparing for a bear market, or is it just a pullback? History often repeats itself in astonishing ways, yet there's always something unexpected in between. If every cycle of bull and bear market were identical, then escaping the peak and bottom-fishing would become simple, but this cycle is even more different from the past.

这次回调后，大饼的上行动能明显疲软，此前在12万美元附近形成的“双顶”结构更是高悬于顶的技术利剑。

市场的资金流向正在悄然生变。一个明显的迹象是：机构和其它大资金正将目标转向以太坊。这是ETH/BTC交易对的触底反弹，更是市场对即将到来的以太坊现货ETF 的预期博弈。叙事焦点短期内的转移，抽走了比特币所需的流动性。

当前的市场正处于一个微妙的平衡点。比特币现在最紧迫的任务是承接住获利盘和恐慌盘的抛压，完成高位筹码的充分换手。如果能在这个位置稳住，哪怕横盘震荡，都为后续的上涨保留了火种。

反之，如果比特币无法有效承接，失守关键支撑11万美元颈线位，那么一场较大幅度的回调将不可避免。这不仅是技术面的需求，更是资金轮动下的必然结果。

说人话就是，大饼如果不能接住抛售，顺利完成换手，将带着市场来一个深度回调，不要对市场过度乐观，做好两手准备

After two days of consolidation, there should be a direction during the workweek, most likely upwards. If the amplitude is large, consider reducing some positions at a high point and wait for a pullback to add back.

Now many people are concerned about the altcoin season, where many altcoins are still at the bottom of the grinding wheel. According to past patterns, the bull market cycle is almost complete. Those holding a lot of altcoins are anxious, and a large number of retail investors are trapped yet still harbor illusions. Can the market rise in the future? The key lies in:
1. Whether there is enough new capital and market sentiment to drive funds to rotate into altcoins.
2. Whether there can be a strong narrative to attract funds into specific sectors.
3. Whether the market makers can create volatility driven by their own interests to indirectly push prices upward.
4. The collective behavior of retail investors, whether it is FOMO buying high or rushing to sell to cut losses, will also affect the trend.
This round is indeed very difficult; it seems that a widespread rally like before in the altcoin market is no longer possible because there isn't that amount of capital. Institutions and companies will not play these games with you; they seek stable growth, so projects that can yield interest through staking and have practical utility will be their first choice.

Even the best traders cannot achieve 100% accuracy in bottom fishing and top escaping. The market has entered a critical period. Those interested can check the homepage introduction and join together to navigate through this bull market.

How the market will move in the future, now it's the end of August, and the probability of interest rate cuts in September is very high. Even if the rate cut does not happen, there are still expectations for October, November, and December. Therefore, if there are no major negative factors in August and September, it can basically be considered safe. Hold onto the spot, and if there is a significant pullback, it's also fine to appropriately add to the position.

I said yesterday that the pullback would not be small. First, we are at the tail end of a bull market, and whether it's taking profits or stopping losses, nerves are very fragile, and panic can easily arise. Second, there are indeed large profit-taking positions. If there were no institutional support, it would have fallen through by now. The only relatively safe investment is still Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin ecosystem seems to be stirring and about to cause some trouble again

Api3 called 0.8 ambush, now it has doubled, today's increase is significant, take the profit while you can, generally if there's this much fluctuation in a day, you should exit first, even if you are optimistic about this project, you should lock in profits first, and then enter again when it pulls back.

BlackRock's Ethereum ETF product ETHA currently holds 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 58.03% of the total Ethereum ETF volume. BlackRock's cost price is approximately $3,300, with a profit margin of over 34%.

If it weren't purely a knockoff, most people would probably have made a good profit by now; this correction will not be small.

In this market, it's really not easy. It takes months to see a 10% rise in the overall position, while a 20% drop can happen in just one hour.

Ethereum is favored by institutions, and SoL is also being accumulated by institutions. Why does the price of SOL always drop around $200? I think it’s because the weight is too heavy, and the initial increase was too much. Retail investors hold relatively low positions. As long as the bull market continues, SOL is in a consolidation phase. In terms of fundamentals, nothing has changed; what has changed is that some people are comparing it to other public chains that have experienced explosive growth. SOL will not break its previous high, but it at least needs to reach near that high. Therefore, I think if there is a major upward trend later, SOL under $200 is a good choice.

On-chain data shows that Ethereum reserves on CEX continue to decrease, with only 18.39 million ETH remaining, marking the lowest level since October 2022. The same trend is observed in Bitcoin, with current Bitcoin reserves on CEX at about 2.52 million, also the lowest level since October 2022.

Don't forget, our current opponents are Wall Street and large institutions, these old-timers can be very tricky. Pay special attention to two indicators: significant and long-term bullish signals but with large institutional sell-offs, such as a single-day net outflow greater than 5%, is a danger signal!

2. If Ethereum holds above $4000 and the staking ratio breaks 35%, then on-chain scarcity will have real value support.

Let's talk about Ethereum again. The second coin is currently experiencing a transition from retail and community consensus to institutional financial assets. It hasn't completely switched to institutional ownership yet, and is currently undergoing some painful adjustments. I had already cleared half of my position and was planning to gradually reduce my holdings at new highs, but now I've changed my mind and will buy back on dips. The second coin is gradually acquiring long-term value, and previous lows will only slowly build higher.

I built my position around $6, called for layout between 10-12, and it has already doubled. It’s wise to exit with the principal first if you want, or you can hold on. This coin has relatively low risk. It has a higher probability of breaking previous highs in the future.

The expectation of a rate cut in September is still highly probable, the debate is whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points. The reason for the decline is the PPI exceeding expectations, raising concerns about deflation, and it happened over the weekend. I believe the trend has not changed, and the Russo-Putin meeting will also impact market sentiment; hold on to good spot positions.

Next, the weekend will drop and not come back so quickly, plus there is not much good news, so it will stay where it falls.

There are too many people who feel that opportunities have come and are constantly bottom-fishing, so first stabilize, don't rush.