There is a friend who believes that the Trump Foundation bought it, and it shouldn't drop like this. There should be many friends who are interested in seeing what certain institutions have bought, and they blindly believe that the coins bought by certain institutions won't fall.
Let's discuss this topic.
We can think of it this way: two mindsets:
The first mindset: The institutional main force is omnipotent; it can achieve anything. This means it won't lose money, right? Then what's the point? If they won't lose money, then money has no meaning for them, right? So what's the use of all these flashy things?
Institutions are not only powerful in terms of funding but also in information, thinking, and their ability to grasp the overall situation. In short, they are capable of anything.
If that's the case, an institution with infinite energy is unpredictable and immeasurable.
We should not blindly follow rumors about certain institutions.
Because since they are omnipotent, they can change their stance at any time and pull the market in the opposite direction. Their temporary position is therefore unreliable.
The second mindset: Institutions cannot manipulate the market. Even if they concentrate funds to push or suppress a temporary market trend, since they can push it, they can also suppress it. If they can suppress other institutions, they might also pull the market.
Naturally, this makes it very difficult to predict.
Since they cannot control the market according to their wishes, even if they can influence it, they can also be influenced by other institutions at any time.
So they can only be right or wrong like us, just like an ordinary person beside us. Would you still want to take their movements as a direction?
4/20 Welcome to Commander C's today's commentary channel
1/3 #WCT
I. Technical Analysis
1. The close did not stabilize above the previous high, breakout failed
2. Did not break below the bearish MBS, combined with the previous trend, there is a high probability of forming a consolidation range
3. Still in an uptrend, the uptrend line has not been broken, currently just returning from an overbought state
4. Price rises, open interest rises; price drops sharply, open interest drops rapidly; the futures market is dominated by bulls
II. Data Analysis:
1. High leverage and liquidity risk:
Position/Market Value ≈ 111.4%: Derivative leverage is extremely high, price fluctuations can be amplified, need to be cautious of flash crashes or short squeezes.
Surge in trading volume: Short-term funds drive enthusiasm, but if subsequent trading volume drops sharply, it may lead to liquidity exhaustion.
2. Divergence in long and short positions:
Retail investors generally bearish (long-short ratio < 0.5): If the price rebounds, it may trigger concentrated short covering, forming a short squeeze.
Large holders' positions are neutral to bearish: The number ratio and position ratio diverge, reflecting the complexity of institutional strategies (such as hedging or cross-platform arbitrage).
3. Pressure from negative funding rates:
Accumulation of short position costs; if the price stabilizes, they may be forced to close positions, pushing prices up.
III. Trading Strategy:
Short: Break below MBS, short to the uptrend line
Long: If it does not break below MBS, go long at the bottom, treat it as a consolidation range to trade, buy low sell high, set stop loss below MBS
#FARTCOIN This trading strategy has some substance. I was deceived yesterday, but fortunately, I was waiting for right-side trading and did not enter the market.
Mistake: There were all large bearish candles on the 4H chart, and while the price was falling, the open interest increased, so I assumed it was a short entry without checking the 1H structure.
If I switch to the 1H chart, I find that there were consistent declines followed by a reversal candle. If it were a short entry, there wouldn't be a reversal candle because the shorts would accelerate the selling pressure.
Therefore, the correct logic here could be:
1. Bulls counter-trend buying: Retail traders or institutions believe the price is oversold, buying at each dip, forming support, which leads to an increase in open interest as both long and short positions are opened simultaneously.
2. Major players gradually shorting: Large funds build positions slowly to avoid a price crash while attracting retail traders to buy the dip, maintaining high open interest.
Specific logic chain:
Shorts open positions to suppress the price → Price falls.
Falls to a key level (such as a support line or psychological level) → Bulls see good value and enter the market → Price rebounds (bullish candle).
Shorts continue to add to their positions → Open interest continues to rise, but the price fails to decline smoothly due to the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Final result: The price declines in a stepwise manner, and open interest remains high.
trader—c
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Bearish
$FARTCOIN
1. The 1.4H level has achieved a 4-hour bearish MSB.
2. Change in OI: Price drops while OI rises, in the most recent candlestick, price rises while OI drops, which is standard evidence of contract positions being mainly short.
3. With a market cap of 700 million, the contract positions have reached an astonishing 400 million, with a very high leverage ratio. This means that the contract can easily manipulate prices, and the unique leverage mechanism of the contract can easily trigger price fluctuations with small amounts of capital.
4. Therefore, our strategy shifts to being willing to short, waiting for a retest of the range high and the 4H Supply.
At the same time, we initiate a bearish Fibonacci.
This commentary on the war regarding $BTC continues.
At a glance, it is a converging triangle pattern.
The market is always in a cycle of convergence and explosion.
The continuous decrease in volatility can be understood as a precursor to a storm.
My view remains unchanged; I still see the MM level at 88k, as there is a large upward trend behind it, and it can't drop below that, it's that simple.
How to get there? That is key. The best scenario, I believe, is: Many people's long positions will trigger stop losses, and some who place STOP ORDERS will hang short positions in the demand zone, leading to a large amount of liquidity in the lower demand zone.
Without affecting the structural integrity, we can visit the demand zone once; thus, some aggressive traders will think: the rising trend line is broken, the converging triangle pattern is destroyed, and they will enter short positions, thereby providing liquidity.
As shown in the image, many will also see that it can't break through here and will enter short positions, thus providing enough fuel to break through the resistance level at 86k.
trader—c
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Bullish
This war about $BTC
I. Short-term (now)
1. I don't really want to do anything in this range, but the premise for shorting is to extend yesterday's downtrend and intensity today. However, it is clear that, although the market hasn't closed today, I haven't seen the situation I want.
2. Even if there are changes tonight, the fact that the market can't go down during the day still indicates that a significant portion of participants are bullish, which is also the reason why prices can't go down.
3. Unless the daily line forms a hammer, I will consider continuing to short. If I have to do something now, I am inclined to establish long positions. Since I am a right-side trader, this trade, which is equivalent to left-side trading, I will only use an ant position to participate in the breakout.
4. As I mentioned earlier, I have been waiting for the position at 88k subjectively, and the reason has been elaborated in previous text. From a technical perspective:
88k is a resistance level, the upper bound of a consolidation range, and the MEASYRED MOVE position for a significant breakout of a double bottom structure on the daily chart.
II. Medium-term (trading strategy)
I believe friends who follow me know clearly: if it were my style, I would not consider the current divergent market and would not participate. I will wait for the divergence to end and then join the winning side.
Let's look at the chart and see what I will do: I will wait until I reach near the 88k level, observe the price reaction, and if the bulls can strongly break through and seize the 88k position, I will join the bulls to bet on upward gains.
If the 88k level faces strong counterattacks from the bears, it will prove that the downward pressure of the larger trend still exists, and I will join the bears. The risk-reward ratio for betting at such key positions is extremely strong, but it is essentially exchanging time for space.
(I really hope for a bear victory because if the bears win, I might gain 13% profit, while if the bulls win, I can only gain 5% profit, excluding the ant position)
1. The 1.4H level has achieved a 4-hour bearish MSB.
2. Change in OI: Price drops while OI rises, in the most recent candlestick, price rises while OI drops, which is standard evidence of contract positions being mainly short.
3. With a market cap of 700 million, the contract positions have reached an astonishing 400 million, with a very high leverage ratio. This means that the contract can easily manipulate prices, and the unique leverage mechanism of the contract can easily trigger price fluctuations with small amounts of capital.
4. Therefore, our strategy shifts to being willing to short, waiting for a retest of the range high and the 4H Supply.
At the same time, we initiate a bearish Fibonacci.
$XRP XRP In terms of daily line structure, the upward movements are large bullish candles, while the downward strength is relatively weak. My expectation for this round of rebound is actually around 2.3.
In the 4H structure, the higher and lower points of this round have not been broken yet. If a double bottom forms here and continues to rebound, it is a very good entry point for long positions.
The bearish perspective is to break below 2, which is a long-term support-resistance exchange level.
The current issue is that the data and the K-line trends are in contradiction. Analyzing from the data, most people are bullish and holding long positions, but the price is just not rising and is dropping sharply instead.
If these bulls could push the price up, it would be one thing, but if the price continues to follow this downward trend line, then these bulls holding long positions will turn into waiting bombs ready to explode.
If the price continues to decline, the bulls will lose confidence and close their long positions, leading to selling pressure. The more bulls there were before, the greater the impact on the price will be.
1. I don't really want to do anything in this range, but the premise for shorting is to extend yesterday's downtrend and intensity today. However, it is clear that, although the market hasn't closed today, I haven't seen the situation I want.
2. Even if there are changes tonight, the fact that the market can't go down during the day still indicates that a significant portion of participants are bullish, which is also the reason why prices can't go down.
3. Unless the daily line forms a hammer, I will consider continuing to short. If I have to do something now, I am inclined to establish long positions. Since I am a right-side trader, this trade, which is equivalent to left-side trading, I will only use an ant position to participate in the breakout.
4. As I mentioned earlier, I have been waiting for the position at 88k subjectively, and the reason has been elaborated in previous text. From a technical perspective:
88k is a resistance level, the upper bound of a consolidation range, and the MEASYRED MOVE position for a significant breakout of a double bottom structure on the daily chart.
II. Medium-term (trading strategy)
I believe friends who follow me know clearly: if it were my style, I would not consider the current divergent market and would not participate. I will wait for the divergence to end and then join the winning side.
Let's look at the chart and see what I will do: I will wait until I reach near the 88k level, observe the price reaction, and if the bulls can strongly break through and seize the 88k position, I will join the bulls to bet on upward gains.
If the 88k level faces strong counterattacks from the bears, it will prove that the downward pressure of the larger trend still exists, and I will join the bears. The risk-reward ratio for betting at such key positions is extremely strong, but it is essentially exchanging time for space.
(I really hope for a bear victory because if the bears win, I might gain 13% profit, while if the bulls win, I can only gain 5% profit, excluding the ant position)
First of all, don't think that this is the impact of the news from bybit. No matter what the impact is, the price change is the spontaneous behavior of the market.
Figure 1, from 99 to 98k, the air force entered the market many times to establish positions.
Figure 2, this time it was reversed near 99k, and the subsequent continuous negative K followed. The fuel for the bullish sentiment in the past few days is very sufficient. As long as the air force attacks, the resistance will be small.
$BTC
trader—c
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Bearish
A BTC war
Similarly, institutions build short positions in batches and absorb funds.
This time there is no volume, it is likely that retail investors are buying, and institutions are waiting for retail investors to buy up the price to start building short positions.
Compared with the previous period, low points are constantly created, and the trading volume is sluggish.
Between 98k and 99k is a long period of support and resistance exchange position.
After rebounding to this vicinity many times and starting to fall, it is bold to guess that the cost line of the institution is between 98k and 99k, and there have been many recent pins near 97k.
Similarly, predictions are predictions. What we have to do is to prepare bullets and wait for this war without gunpowder to come. $BTC
Nothing to say, it's exactly the same as what I said
Every time it rises to this position, something strange will appear, regardless of whether you are objective or subjective.
You can tell by the huge short-order entry volume when the price reaches this point.
A rise without volume is a paper tiger, which will fall apart as soon as it is blown
$ETH
trader—c
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Bearish
A War of ETH
Institutions need to accumulate in batches due to the large amount of funds, and the accumulation will take a long time.
Assuming that after the last major drop, institutions were preparing to establish short positions, this makes sense. There is no volume because it is retail investors buying, and institutions are waiting for retail to drive up the price to establish short positions.
In the chart, compared to earlier, this rebound's price movement is flat and slow, and there is still no volume.
Every time it reaches 2800, Ethereum falls back. This could be the cost line for institutional shorts.
However, speculation is always speculation; what we need to do is wait for events to unfold and engage in right-side trading. $ETH
TAO is really strong, starting from a month ago, this has been solid. This time, it rebounded, being the only one to directly break the Fibonacci 0.618, rebounding over 30%+
Good things must be reflected in the price. A high price does not necessarily mean it's a good thing, but no price definitely means it's not a good thing.
Therefore, if the price is going to rise, there must be a reason, and the price will reflect that. Compared to ETH and BTC, it's been dragging on, how can people be optimistic??? $TAO