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Today's Market View
Currently, the market is above 83000, and I personally lean towards a bullish outlook with a small stop loss, aiming for 84500. If today is Black Friday, then observe around 79000. If it reaches the 84500-85000 range, monitor it; if it fails to break through, consider a small short position. Alternatively, if it breaks below 82000, go short.
For 74944487309, either it stabilizes above 1930 with a small stop loss for a long position, or it retraces to 1820 without breaking down for a long position. The conditions for shorting are to break below 1880 for a short position or to reach around 2020 for a short.

🚨 Bitcoin Faces Downward Risk Alert
Crypto analyst Tony Severino has issued a warning that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a new round of price corrections. He noted that the monthly LMACD indicator of the S&P 500 has turned bearish, with the histogram turning red, and there is a high positive correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500; this technical signal could put pressure on Bitcoin's price. However, he also pointed out that if the bulls can show strength in the next 20 days, there is still a chance to reverse this trend.
Market opinions are divided: Is this the onset of a bear market, or a short-term adjustment?
Severino stated that if the bearish signal is confirmed by the end of the month, it could trigger a significant pullback similar to past LMACD crossovers. Bitcoin recently dropped to a low of $76,000, raising market anxiety.
In contrast, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes remains more optimistic, believing that the current 30% pullback is a normal fluctuation within a bull market and expects that once the Federal Reserve implements loose monetary policy, Bitcoin will regain its upward momentum.
Another analyst, Kevin Capital, pointed out that although the price is under pressure in the short term, the overall trend of Bitcoin remains manageable. He predicts that the price may dip to the $70,000-$75,000 range, but if the 3-day MACD resets, the key support level holds, and the latest CPI data shows a slowdown in inflation, the market may experience a turning point.
$BTC

To reasonably speculate on the future trend of BTC, one should primarily focus on BTC's own cyclical patterns, while also considering the movements of macro risk capital as a supplementary factor to comprehensively analyze future trends. Below are some of my personal speculations regarding future trends: Around May 2024, BTC may stabilize after some fluctuations; starting in June, a gradual upward trend may begin; in October, there is hope for a breakthrough of the historical high (ATH); by December, it may reach $120,000 or higher. By February 2026, the price could further climb to $140,000 or even more.
The strategy suggestion for the current stage is to gradually buy in during price declines, especially to accumulate assets like BTC and ETH through regular investment in the bottom range. The above is merely a personal subjective judgment, speculative in nature, lacking absolute basis, and is for reference only; those who find it unreliable can simply ignore it.
$BTC