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Bitcoin – Should You HODL or Have a Trading System?
Bitcoin’s tremendous gains suggest buy-and-hold is favored. However, we demonstrate that compounding trading systems can outperform such a strategy-deprived approach.

Hold On For Dear Life
The term “HODL,” also known as “Diamond Hands” or “buy-and-hold (BNH),” first emerged in an online cryptocurrency forum in 2013 as a misspelling of the word “hold” — a typo that readers quickly embraced. HODL, which stands for “Hold On for Dear Life,” refers to the strategy of retaining one’s digital assets, even in the face of extreme price fluctuations. Given Bitcoin’s (BTCUSD) recent bout of volatility, HODL remains relevant more than a decade later, in 2025.

However, blind faith in any financial product can be seen as a disadvantage for an investor, particularly given that Bitcoin has experienced three bear markets with declines ranging from 78% to 86% since 2011. See Figure 1 below. Nevertheless, this behavior can be a rational response to a market characterized by significant fluctuations.
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Bitcoin’s price action since 2012 with a 4-year cycle, Elliott wave count, and long-term trading system buy (green boxes) and sell (red boxes) signals.
If you purchased BTC in 2013 and held onto it through these three bear markets, you would now be sitting on a substantial gain of 7,335% to 665,590%, depending on when you bought it. Since the lowest price in 2013 was $13 and the highest was $ 1,163, timing your purchase is critically important. This underscores that HODL/BNH lacks a strategy due to the absence of an entry or exit plan.

Therefore, let’s compare this with active position management. In the next section, we will evaluate a long-term trading system that generates monthly BUY, SELL, and HOLD signals, allowing for the reinvestment of profits. Please refer to Table 1 ( pic 2 )below.

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