Louvenia Scala DeEH

#美国非农数据即将公布
The plunge in the past few days was because the Federal Reserve said in January that the probability of cutting interest rates does not exceed 95%. This probably means that the United States will no longer cut interest rates four times like in 2024.
Cut interest rates less!
Every time interest rates were cut in the past, there would be a sharp rise, and the circulation of US dollars would flood into the market. The rise would drive the global economy and the currency circle.
Let’s look at the U.S. unemployment rate first. It is expected to be 4.2%. If the announced value is lower than this number, it means that the U.S. market economy is relatively good, more people are employed, and the economy is better and more people pay taxes, which may prompt the U.S. to raise interest rates. If it is higher than On the contrary, this value will reduce interest rates. If local companies are supported to solve employment problems, interest rates will be reduced.
Then there is the non-agricultural employment population, which was previously 228,000, and the market expected 160,000. A value lower than this proves that the market economy is relatively good, and more funds will flow to the currency circle, which is good. If it is higher, the United States may adopt some other policies to subsidize it. In this gap, the biggest problem for each country is its people and economy. This is why the stock market and currency market will rise or fall with a slight fluctuation.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not contain any investment advice! #美国非农数据即将公布

$BTC

$BTC Determining the “fair” value of Bitcoin (BTC) is a complex and controversial topic. Here's a breakdown of the factors that influence its value and some perspective on its fairness:
Factors affecting the value of Bitcoin
*Scarcity: Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million coins, so there is the potential for scarcity to drive value.
*Demand: Demand for Bitcoin is driven by a variety of factors, including its use as a store of value, medium of exchange, and speculative asset.
* Network effects: As more people and businesses adopt Bitcoin, its value will likely increase due to network effects.
*Technological Developments: Advances in blockchain technology and institutional adoption of Bitcoin may affect its value.
* Regulatory environment: Government regulations and policies on cryptocurrencies may significantly affect the price of Bitcoin.
* Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment, news, and events can cause rapid fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin.
Thoughts on Bitcoin’s fairness
* Fair value models: Some analysts attempt to determine Bitcoin’s “fair value” using various models, such as those based on network value, mining costs, or future cash flows. However, these models are often complex and prone to controversy.
* Intrinsic value vs. speculative value: Some believe that Bitcoin’s intrinsic value is based on its underlying technology and potential use cases. Others believe that its value is driven primarily by speculation and market sentiment.
* Volatility and Risk: Bitcoin’s high volatility can be unfair to investors looking for stable returns. However, proponents argue that volatility is inherent in early-stage assets and can also create profit opportunities.
* Accessibility and Distribution: Concerns have been raised about the uneven distribution of Bitcoin wealth and the accessibility of the cryptocurrency market to different groups of people.
in conclusion
Whether Bitcoin's current price is "fair" is a subjective question with no easy answer. It depends on one's perspective, risk tolerance and investment objectives

#加密市场回调

#加密市场回调 The altcoins have now fallen below the support level and are entering an unmanaged area. High market cap coins may pull back by around 75%, while low market cap ones might even return to their starting point. But don’t think that just because it fell, the bull market is over; that could lead to significant losses. Remember, in a bull market, going long still gives you a chance to break even even if you get stuck; but if you go short and get stuck, you might as well prepare for liquidation.
If you have long positions, don’t rush to cut losses; if you sell and the price rebounds, you’ll regret it. You could try taking some short positions to hedge a bit. Wait for strong reversal signals before adding to your positions to lower the average cost of your long positions. This way, you can embrace the cryptocurrency frenzy after Trump takes office next year. The altcoins have now fallen below the support level and are entering an unmanaged area. High market cap coins may pull back by around 75%, while low market cap ones might even return to their starting point. But don’t think that just because it fell, the bull market is over; that could lead to significant losses. Remember, in a bull market, going long still gives you a chance to break even even if you get stuck; but if you go short and get stuck, you might as well prepare for liquidation.
If you have long positions, don’t rush to cut losses; if you sell and the price rebounds, you’ll regret it. You could try taking some short positions to hedge a bit. Wait for strong reversal signals before adding to your positions to lower the average cost of your long positions. This way, you can embrace the cryptocurrency frenzy after Trump takes office next year.

#比特币市场波动观察
$BTC
In this round of bull market cycle, there are 4 waves of main upward trends.
The first wave, from January to April 2023, lasted for 4 months and completely emerged from the bear market cycle;
The second wave, from mid-October 2023 to mid-March 2024, will last for 5 months and kick off a small bull market,
A small number of people have captured many airdrops and opportunities for dozens or even over a hundred times returns in brc20 and inscriptions.
In February to March, there will be another wave of Depin and AI meme market on Sol, which is the first wave of this cycle with profitable effects.
The third wave, from mid-October 2024 to now, may continue until February to April next year, focusing on new opportunities in sectors.
Recently, after communicating with friends in the studio, many people have incurred losses in the past few months, mainly for three reasons:
1. BTC has been shorting all the way, resulting in liquidation or serious resistance.
2. Full position in junk altcoins, getting hit multiple times when switching, and stop-lossing repeatedly.
3. Heavy positions in memes, especially some new meme coins, with several rounds of 70% cuts.
Buffett once said, if you are not willing to hold a stock for ten years, then do not hold it for even a day. If a coin does not have a logic for long-term holding, participating in short-term speculation will likely lead to being cut. If you do long-term investment, these coins are far inferior to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and also not as good as the leading sectors, so some junk altcoins have little investment and trading value, and it is best not to touch them in the long term, otherwise there will be a risk of missing out on a bull market.
#PCE Inflation Cooling #USUAL Trend Analysis #比特币市场波动观察 #加密市场回调

#市场调整後的机会？

This round of decline has utilized the speech of the Federal Reserve, triggering panic in the sentiment. As long as Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see net inflows and Ethereum spot ETFs have a net inflow relationship, the market trend remains unchanged. Each decline in a bull market is an opportunity to get in. Whether you can seize it depends on your emotional management skills and capital management abilities.
If you have to gamble, then gamble on the outcome of the game between Trump + Musk and the Federal Reserve.
The chips of ETH have not been sufficiently absorbed, so there will be continuous volatile market conditions. Therefore, the capital utilization rate for trading waves will be relatively high. For altcoins, reference the bottom phase of Ethereum for spot entry. If you can't choose, then new coins can also be played with small positions, taking a chance. If you seek stability, then buying $BNB is sufficient; while earning interest on financial management, you will also receive airdrop rewards when new coins are issued.

This coin, $BNB , is meant for fixed purchases, long-term holding, and waiting for it to allocate new coins to make money. It's that simple.
I suggest everyone start accumulating BNB at any time; it doesn't matter when you start or how much you accumulate. In a few years, you will thank me.
As for those looking to trade short-term, I don't recommend buying this; you would be better off buying Bitcoin or Ethereum for quicker profits. This coin, Binance Coin, focuses on the concept of wealth accumulation...
It's easy to earn; let's all make free coins together. I've calculated that from holding until now, I've also gotten several U for free. It's so satisfying!

#市場回調 #BNB