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Discussion on Buying Points Based on Bottom Volume Reduction
In the field of cryptocurrency, technical analysis acts like a compass, guiding investors in their trading direction. This article will delve into practical cases, such as today's explosive eos, shell, bmt, etc., fully unlocking the reference value of the key indicator of volume reduction in cryptocurrency technical analysis, helping everyone to discover the hidden wealth codes within.
Avoid pitfalls: When looking for bottom volume reduction varieties on CEX, avoid choosing those with excessively small market capitalizations, as they face the risk of being delisted from CEX.
Bottom volume reduction has various reference significances in cryptocurrency analysis:
Coin price stop-loss signal: When the coin price has undergone a long-term decline, and trading volume gradually shrinks to a lower level in the bottom area, this is usually a sign that selling pressure is gradually weakening. During the coin price decline, as the price continues to drop, the panic among holders gradually releases, resulting in a large volume of selling, which leads to increased trading volume. However, when the trading volume shrinks to a very low level, it indicates that there are few people willing to continue selling, and the coin price may soon stop falling and stabilize.
Avoid pitfalls: When looking for bottom volume reduction varieties on CEX, avoid choosing those with excessively small market capitalizations, as they face the risk of being delisted from CEX.
Bottom volume reduction has various reference significances in cryptocurrency analysis:
Coin price stop-loss signal: When the coin price has undergone a long-term decline, and trading volume gradually shrinks to a lower level in the bottom area, this is usually a sign that selling pressure is gradually weakening. During the coin price decline, as the price continues to drop, the panic among holders gradually releases, resulting in a large volume of selling, which leads to increased trading volume. However, when the trading volume shrinks to a very low level, it indicates that there are few people willing to continue selling, and the coin price may soon stop falling and stabilize.
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US stocks squat, does the cryptocurrency market signal a rebound?
This week, the NASDAQ RSI is close to 11 (a two-year low), and the S&P 500 is as oversold as during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023 - the technicals have marked a "squat zone". More crazily, the trading volume of put options has surged by 33 million contracts, setting a new high since the panic of the 2020 pandemic, and even the "fear index" VIX has soared to 29.56, with bearish sentiment almost overflowing the screen.
History always rhymes: over the past two years, the NASDAQ has experienced two 15%+ pullbacks (July 24 / this time), both triggering violent rebounds after being oversold. Last night's CPI data was released, and tech stocks were the first to "jump the gun," with Tesla and Nvidia recovering more than 5% in a single day, which is a typical scenario of short covering. Currently, the NASDAQ at 17,000 points has erased all gains from Trump's election victory, and the selling pressure is gradually exhausting, with even Goldman Sachs hinting that CTA selling may end this week.
History always rhymes: over the past two years, the NASDAQ has experienced two 15%+ pullbacks (July 24 / this time), both triggering violent rebounds after being oversold. Last night's CPI data was released, and tech stocks were the first to "jump the gun," with Tesla and Nvidia recovering more than 5% in a single day, which is a typical scenario of short covering. Currently, the NASDAQ at 17,000 points has erased all gains from Trump's election victory, and the selling pressure is gradually exhausting, with even Goldman Sachs hinting that CTA selling may end this week.
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Let's talk about this week's US stocks and the crypto circle. Continuing last Friday's trend, if US stocks open low tonight, they are likely to open low and then rise, extending the rebound seen over the past few days. The correlated crypto market may also briefly hit the bottom tonight and follow with a rebound for several days. However, a rebound is not a reversal; it is not the time to enter the market. Instead, it is when friends with high leverage should consider reducing their risks. Currently, there are no signs of a bottom in this round of downward adjustment. #加密市场观察 #美股
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Ethereum ETH is currently in the strong support area around 2100, with a certain level of support from the lower bound of the long-term trend. However, it is important to note that the long-term 120-day bull-bear line has already turned downward, and the bears currently dominate. If it lingers around 2100 for too long, it may lead to fluctuations. It is recommended that everyone be prepared for both scenarios: on one hand, hope that it can successfully hold - build a bottom - and rebound; on the other hand, if it cannot hold, it will continue to decline, possibly in a waterfall-like manner. It is emphasized: be sure to manage your position control, and absolutely avoid leverage. Consider a dollar-cost averaging strategy within 2100. In the 1-2 quarters before the midterm elections in November next year, the US stock and crypto markets are likely to welcome favorable 'candy' news.
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The Truth About Bitcoin Reserves Revealed, Strategic Games Are About to Begin
Some Bitcoin holders feel that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) has not played a substantive role, as it is merely confiscated assets without any actual purchasing actions. However, there will be buying operations in the future; methods like issuing Bitcoin bonds and selling gold in a 'budget-neutral' way can acquire Bitcoin and will drive implementation, so everyone should be patient.
SBR is significant; ETFs make Bitcoin a legitimate asset class and open the doors for institutional investment. Now, a command grants Bitcoin equal status with gold, and SBR resembles a digital version of 'gold reserves.' The competition between nations for Bitcoin has just begun, and SBR also means that the United States' Bitcoin holdings will undergo an official audit; the current numbers are only estimates, as the U.S. FJ has been selling BTC over the past few years.
SBR is significant; ETFs make Bitcoin a legitimate asset class and open the doors for institutional investment. Now, a command grants Bitcoin equal status with gold, and SBR resembles a digital version of 'gold reserves.' The competition between nations for Bitcoin has just begun, and SBR also means that the United States' Bitcoin holdings will undergo an official audit; the current numbers are only estimates, as the U.S. FJ has been selling BTC over the past few years.
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【Trump states that XPR, SOL, and ADA will be included in cryptocurrency reserves】A certain insider trading group yesterday established a $120 million Ethereum long position and a $70 million Bitcoin long position with 50x leverage. A mere 2% price drop was enough to trigger the liquidation mechanism. As liquidation hung by a thread, Trump subsequently stepped in to make a statement, turning the tide. Is it little Trump calling for his dad?
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Currently, the market sentiment in the United States is on the verge of extreme panic. AAI's sentiment survey shows that the proportion of bearish individuals in the market has risen to the seventh highest level in history. In this situation, the trend of U.S. Treasury prices is highly likely to have begun a reversal process. Generally speaking, market sentiment serves as a contrarian indicator. However, this time is quite special; the S&P index is less than 5% away from its historical high, while Buffett's cash holdings have surged to an all-time high. This undoubtedly sends a strong signal, as the saying goes, 'When Buffett is afraid, I am afraid.' At this moment, do not act rashly; wait for the momentum to end.
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My friends, the Ethereum upgrade date has been officially announced, and it is scheduled for April 8! From a technical analysis point of view, the current daily RSI index has bottomed out and has entered the buying range, with considerable room for subsequent gains. The accuracy of the RSI index has always been well-known. According to experience, it is right to buy at a low price at this time. Usually the market will start more than a month before the upgrade, so I am looking forward to the trend in late February, and I believe there will be surprises! In addition, the altcoin market has also been very active recently. Friends who want to invest in small currencies can focus on storj, api3 and agld, and maybe they can catch the next wave of wealth codes! #EthereumUpgrade##RSIIndex##AltcoinOpportunity#
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The essence of trading is 'sticking to the fundamentals while being innovative'! The larger the capital, the heavier the focus on fundamentals should be; just target the top 3 by market cap. As for those knockoffs, it doesn't really matter whether they succeed or not, because they hardly contribute anything significant for large capital. However, if the capital is relatively small, being innovative by investing in some knockoff products, like the few fan tokens I mentioned yesterday, can be worthwhile. After all, for smaller capital, there is still operational space and significance in knockoff products. #Trading Insights#
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Ethereum is in the repair zone after breaking and pulling back this week, and is still supported by the large rising lower rail. Today, the Ethereum Foundation officially announced that the Pectra network upgrade plan will be launched on the test network. Test network schedule: The Pectra upgrade will be launched on the Holesky test network at 05:55 Beijing time on February 25, and will be activated on the Sepolia test network at 15:29 on March 5. Core content of the upgrade: Through EIP-7702, the account abstraction function is realized. Users can use a variety of tokens to pay transaction fees, lowering the threshold for wallet operations; EIP-7251 increases the upper limit of a single validator's staking from 32ETH to 2048ETH, simplifying node management and enhancing network decentralization; optimize the underlying protocol to improve the compatibility of Layer2 solutions and reduce the risk of on-chain congestion. $ETH #以太坊坎昆升级
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Family, I've found several treasure coins that can currently be entered at swing trading! $SANTOS $PORTO $LAZIO bar, currently at the bottom, small market cap and low price, with a lot of upward potential, has the lineage of meme coins and an independent speculation cycle. Importantly, from the perspective of project compliance and the resources behind it, it is unlikely to be delisted by Binance. However, the cryptocurrency market is risky, this is just my personal discovery and analysis, please invest cautiously, and you bear the gains and losses. If you're interested, you can research further on your own.
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Could FTX founder Sam be pardoned by Trump?
Recently, Trump signed a series of pardons, including one for the Silk Road founder related to cryptocurrency. This has led some people to discuss whether FTX founder Sam has a chance of being pardoned. Below are my thoughts.
Conclusion: There is a possibility that FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried could be pardoned by Trump, but it is very small for the following reasons:
1. Nature of the crime and Trump's stance: The FTX founder is involved in serious financial crimes such as fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering, causing massive losses to numerous investors. Trump's previous pardons have mostly been for individuals related to the 'Capitol riot', or for people like Ross Ulbricht, the founder of 'Silk Road', who some supporters believe received an excessively harsh sentence and whose case has a certain special connection to the development of cryptocurrency. In contrast, the nature of the FTX founder's crimes lacks a fitting point for a pardon from Trump's perspective.
Conclusion: There is a possibility that FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried could be pardoned by Trump, but it is very small for the following reasons:
1. Nature of the crime and Trump's stance: The FTX founder is involved in serious financial crimes such as fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering, causing massive losses to numerous investors. Trump's previous pardons have mostly been for individuals related to the 'Capitol riot', or for people like Ross Ulbricht, the founder of 'Silk Road', who some supporters believe received an excessively harsh sentence and whose case has a certain special connection to the development of cryptocurrency. In contrast, the nature of the FTX founder's crimes lacks a fitting point for a pardon from Trump's perspective.
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The prototype of the meme originator doge is a Shiba Inu named Kabosu. Kabosu's owner also has a cat named $ginnan. $neiro, which is launched on Binance, is the new dog adopted by his owner after Kabosu's death. In short, $ginnan is the cat sister of Kabosu and $neiro. If Neiro flies, he will take Ginnan with him.
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The next meme golden dog is $wdog. It has no official website or official community. KOLs continue to join. It holds 11,000 coins and has remained in the top 5 of dexttools for several consecutive days. If you don’t believe it, you can post a tweet about wdog to see how many likes and attention you can get.
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The current cycle trend is that BTC's dominance is declining, while altcoins are repriced. There are two very obvious winners in this cycle, sol and meme. Future market capitalization share expectations: BTC-40%, ETH-15%, SOL-15%, MEME-10%, stablecoins + others-20%, and the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies in this round reaches 10 trillion US dollars. Therefore, both absolutely and relatively, the biggest opportunity lies in the field of sol+memes. #sol##wif##bonk##popcat##selfie#
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Trump has been very supportive of cryptocurrencies from a series of recent performances, even exceeding market expectations. This attitude will be followed by candidates in the United States and other countries, because it can capture voters in the crypto field, so it is foreseeable that Ethereum ETH will have to be approved, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission SEC is only in a passive dominant position. Now large foreign institutions, mainly banks and financial institutions, are actively supporting cryptocurrencies, and they can charge commissions. Overall, the situation of cryptocurrencies looks good, and the bull market will last longer and reach higher heights.
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In the early hours of this morning Beijing time, the US SEC approved multiple Ethereum spot ETF 19b-4 forms, including those from BlackRock and Fidelity, which are almost the same as the Bitcoin spot ETF. The specific listing will be in a few weeks. This means that traditional funds will be able to allocate ETH like stocks. BTC allocation represents optimism about new crypto finance, and ETH allocation represents optimism about the entire Web3. Behind all this is the will of Wall Street, which continues to inject positive energy into the cryptocurrency circle.
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[May 17th Option Delivery Data]
18,000 BTC options are about to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.63, a maximum pain point of $63,000, and a nominal value of $1.2 billion.
320,000 ETH options are about to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.28, a maximum pain point of $3,000, and a nominal value of $930 million.
This week, stimulated by the Meme trend in the US stock market, BTC ETF also received significant capital inflows, and BTC rose sharply to break through $65,000, but the crypto market outside the Meme was relatively weak, and the trading volume continued to fall. The divergence of BTC and ETH option data can reflect this.
From the perspective of block trading and market trading structure, the IV decline trend of major terms has ended and entered a sideways trend, and there is currently little room for decline. BTC longs and shorts are relatively balanced, while the weakness of ETH currency prices has led to a continuous weakening of market confidence, and selling bullish has become the absolute main transaction.
The seller's cost-effectiveness is average under the current IV, and it would be a better choice to buy at the right time. It is recommended to pay attention to the ETH BTC exchange rate pair transaction.
18,000 BTC options are about to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.63, a maximum pain point of $63,000, and a nominal value of $1.2 billion.
320,000 ETH options are about to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.28, a maximum pain point of $3,000, and a nominal value of $930 million.
This week, stimulated by the Meme trend in the US stock market, BTC ETF also received significant capital inflows, and BTC rose sharply to break through $65,000, but the crypto market outside the Meme was relatively weak, and the trading volume continued to fall. The divergence of BTC and ETH option data can reflect this.
From the perspective of block trading and market trading structure, the IV decline trend of major terms has ended and entered a sideways trend, and there is currently little room for decline. BTC longs and shorts are relatively balanced, while the weakness of ETH currency prices has led to a continuous weakening of market confidence, and selling bullish has become the absolute main transaction.
The seller's cost-effectiveness is average under the current IV, and it would be a better choice to buy at the right time. It is recommended to pay attention to the ETH BTC exchange rate pair transaction.
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In this wave of market, $FTM in the public chain is about to show its dominance. Can it break out of the trend of “small $SOL ” in March?
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Circle (CRCL) surged 34% to a new all-time high after the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act — fueling optimism for stablecoin regulation and crypto equities. With Circle’s blowout IPO, many now see this as the start of a broader wave of crypto public listings.
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The Fed held rates steady for the 4th meeting in a row. Chair Powell said more data is needed before cutting, even as inflation cools. The Fed’s 2025 outlook shows two possible rate cuts. Meanwhile, Trump reignited tensions, calling Powell “stupid” and urging a 2% cut to boost the economy.
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