四风-FOCUS

ETH pulled back to 4420 and added a little short position. My courage has really shrunk... I dare not go all in.

Review Summary, based on last judgment error, did not drop to 4520 under pressure. Based on market maker logic, liquidity should be controlled and will not immediately break through 4400. Then I delved into the data and found that there are 780,000 in staking withdrawals queued, with over 200 million dollars in selling pressure every day, institutions are leaving the market, and the cost of pulling up is too high, so market makers will not consider liquidity anymore; profit is the first priority. Therefore, within the 13-day queue period, market makers and institutions should not pull the market. It is controlled below 4450. The probability of a price increase is extremely low (unless there is a black swan event, or BlackRock injects net inflows at a high volume daily without regard for cost). Moreover, looking at the liquidity threshold, including contract leverage ratio, liquidity is lacking. It appears that ETH may face another death spiral. Based on institutional costs around 3800, the support line should be around 4000-4100. Within 13 days, market makers and institutions are expected to finish harvesting and complete positioning before a price increase. By the way, for friends who see this sharing, it is best not to go long in the near future. The risk is extremely high; whales and institutions are selling, and the probability of market makers liquidating long positions at 4200 is very high.

The opening position is not very good. I just looked at the liquidity threshold, and it is very likely to pull down to 4520, which is currently suppressing downward movement. Now breaking below 4400 will suppress liquidity.

519 broken hearts, entering the game again as an ant retail investor. Yesterday ETH, 4630 went short, SOL 196.69 bearish. Took half profit. Today looking at the data to short again, 4440 188 short. OI decreases, rebound weak. Continuing to hold short positions. Using this to record my operations and review.