SeanAllen

I just took the time to listen to the entire discussion today.

I was quite emotional about the space; I had never listened to a space before, and after listening this time, my biggest feeling is that the industry has really changed.

First: The attitude of the leader is really sincere. I have no vested interest with Binance, nor am I any kind of KOL, but I can feel the sincerity in the leader's words. They are genuinely listening to the voices of users, and their openness to suggesting ideas is also quite acceptable.

Moreover, during such a bad market, the leader brought in project parties and lads. I believe these people should also be resistant to this. In this situation, I personally feel that this attitude of facing problems directly shows they are genuinely putting in the effort.

After thinking about these questions, I came to the core question: What is the main contradiction that people who make money grasp? What is the "critical 20%" of making money?
The critical 20% refers to the information, nodes, and actions that can significantly increase the possibility of profits and play a decisive role.

Here are a few directions to think about:

1: What’s the current market sentiment, funding, media coverage, and heat?
1: When a track explodes, a large number of projects will often emerge, and funds and attention will quickly gather. Are there any signs of this?
2: Key signals: The track that the media/kol/institutions begin to mention repeatedly, or the tokens of a certain track begin to rise collectively. This is the 20% of information that I need to focus on.

In recent days, due to the limitations of my research and investment, I have derived three limiting problems that have been bothering me:
1: Why can some people earn a lot of money every day without spending much time on research, while I work hard every day and do not earn much? Where is the gap?
2: Why are there projects that I can only see when others release them? How did that person see them? Where is the gap?
3: Furthermore, when the same information appears before me, why do some people see it as key information, while I sometimes overlook it? Where is the gap?

1: Understanding of Limitations:

2024/12/25 I realized a problem, that after working hard for a long time, the returns don't seem significant. I've looked at many projects and written many research reports—dozens of them—but I vaguely feel that I'm missing the point. I showed my research report to an expert, and he said what I wrote was meaningless, just following the conventional method blindly. I gradually realized that my effort in researching projects and writing SOPs may be more of ineffective labor.

Currently, I focus more on studying projects regarding financing, and then deduce the rules for the next project’s token issuance based on the rules of similar projects that have already issued tokens. However, these rules don't really have any advantages; everyone can access them, and it just requires gathering more information. I've been immersed in this kind of research, looking at rules, understanding rules, analyzing project data, and executing SOPs, but I've gradually come to realize that these things are not the most crucial aspects.

On October 8, 2024, scroll announced the airdrop information. Source: https://scroll.io/blog/scr-token#scr-token-distribution
A total of 150m tokens will be airdropped, with 70m tokens in the first round and 80m to be distributed in the next year to year and a half. If calculated at a price of around 1.5, the project owner will probably give less than $100 million in airdrops.

However, the number of scroll addresses is about 4.5 million: Information source: https://www.oklink.com/zh-hans/scroll.
Assuming that there are 1 million addresses that can get the airdrop, the number of addresses that can get the airdrop is actually very small. If we follow the rules of zk, only about 600,000 users will get the airdrop in the end, then the average airdrop reward per person is only $166. This is far from the glory of the airdrop track.

I wonder if you have ever thought about this question: why do people lose more money in a bull market than in a bear market?
 
It’s like I bought atom for $15,000 and held it until now, and lost more than 90%. Here is the record at that time: https://x.com/Seanzhao1105/status/1814237471737249959
 
My feeling at the time was that I felt that everyone was talking about how great arc20 was and how it could change the world, etc. Then I watched the price go up little by little, and I finally couldn’t help it. I was afraid of missing out, so I took over at the top of the mountain with a high gas price.
 
The reason why I wanted to write an article about risk is because I have been reading recently. After reading it, I have a different understanding of risk, especially since I started IEO in 2019 and participated in many projects. Now I have some new feelings about the concept of "controlling risks".