又要到饭啦兄弟萌

Yesterday, I shorted the layer contract as soon as it was launched, and made a little profit, but lost it all later. If you lose money, you will study it, so how should you short the new currency?

The first wave of market crash is certain, but you cannot short the spot market. By the time you sign the contract, the price has already fallen a lot, and the price is halfway up the mountain. At this time, should you go short or long?
If the spot and contract prices differ greatly, how would you determine the direction?
Or wait?

If it is only listed on a small exchange, there will be benefits from listing on a large exchange. If you short it at this time, it is likely to be blown up when other large exchanges announce the listing. In this way, it is better to short it after listing on Binance, because Binance is the first exchange.

Generally speaking, having the same position size each time is relatively safer for rolling positions, for the following reasons:
Degree of risk exposure
• Same position size each time: Invest a fixed percentage of capital for each trade, for example, using 10% of total capital to open a position each time. Even if there is a judgment error, the loss is limited to that portion of the position and will not be exacerbated by subsequent operations, making the overall impact on the account capital relatively controllable. For example, with a principal of 100,000, a 10% position each time means 10,000, and if this trade incurs a loss of 10%, the loss will be 1,000 yuan.
• Rolling positions: Increasing positions based on profits. If the market trend aligns with expectations, it can amplify returns; however, if the direction reverses, the increase in position size can exponentially amplify losses. For example, if after rolling a position from an initial 10% to a total position of 20% after making a profit, a market reversal would result in losses being double the original. Moreover, if there are consecutive judgment errors and positions become too heavy after multiple rollings, the risk exposure may be too large, potentially leading to significant losses or even liquidation.