Shelly Rurup hErp

The shift in market conditions for Bitcoin. It is very indicative of the cryptocurrency market, as market funds have finally begun to view Bitcoin as digital gold and are gradually decoupling from the trends of the US stock market. Price fluctuations have quickly aligned with gold, pushing the price of Bitcoin directly up to $94,000, with a weekly increase of 12%. Although the US stock market has rebounded, the trends clearly show a significant divergence from cryptocurrencies. In terms of the US-China tariff war, the US is certainly at a disadvantage, as they heavily rely on low to medium-cost goods. Trump has also continuously released signals indicating that both sides are communicating. Initially, Trump stated that he might reduce tariffs on certain goods, and then rumors of potential tariff reductions on China were leaked through the White House and media. If the opponent does not respond or refuses, it can be dismissed as rumors to save face and not damage their own negotiating leverage. However, the ongoing tensions in the US-China tariff situation continue to be a focal point, with Wall Street hoping for signs of easing relations between the two countries. Reports indicate that China quietly canceled some tariffs on US semiconductors to relieve pressure on its domestic technology sector.

If the American economy is going to cool down, Bitcoin will also be affected, after all, when the overall environment is bad, investors' confidence is easily shaken. If the job market falters, concerns about economic recession will grow, and Bitcoin may be dragged down in the short term, but in the long run, the demand for safe-haven assets may give it a boost. Additionally, there is a Bitcoin state in Arizona. The third reading of the strategic reserve may still require a vote. If this passes, it will go to the governor for signature, making Arizona the first state in America to have a Bitcoin strategic reserve. This is not a small matter, and it's different from Trump's approach. Trump's strategy is not to sell the Bitcoin held by Americans, but also not to spend too much taxpayer money to buy it, for fear of ruining the deficit. So if this vote goes through, Bitcoin is likely to have a rally, giving bulls more confidence. It is well known that the market initially dropped due to tariffs, but after Trump's softened stance on tariffs, the market rebounded. Now it seems that Bitcoin is almost in place, while good stocks need to try harder. Tariffs are not a big problem in the short term; everyone's attention has shifted to the economy. However, after 90 days, tariffs may become a problem again, but that is three months away, so let's put it aside for now. Now the market sentiment has shifted from the messy issues of tariffs to the economic level. How Bitcoin performs depends on whether everyone's thoughts are aligned.

Trump on his private jet returning from Italy. In a shocking interview, he made astonishing remarks. He demanded that China make substantial concessions on trade issues, otherwise he would not lift tariffs on China. This statement was unexpected, as the significant rebound in the cryptocurrency market was largely attributed to the expectation that Sino-U.S. trade relations would ease. However, Trump's remarks seem to have returned the situation to square one. In the short term, the cryptocurrency market may experience significant volatility, and investors need to be highly vigilant and control risks. The official blog of the Ethereum Foundation shows that the ETH Prague upgrade will take place on May 7 at 10:05 AM, Hong Kong time at 6:05 PM! Therefore, the Ethereum upgrade has not been delayed; many people made incorrect investment decisions due to a lack of proper information sources, leading to information asymmetry. Of course, Ethereum has seen significant gains recently, and a pullback is also a normal phenomenon. A correction could actually present a good buying opportunity, holding until close to the upgrade to sell at a higher price, which still has a high probability of success. Currently, ETH has many upward and downward spikes, and the overall outlook for shorting still has a relatively high cost-performance ratio. Waiting for a rebound, it is expected to look for shorting opportunities in the 1820-1850 range. PayFi is not a gimmick; it is the next generation of financial infrastructure. It connects fiat payments with on-chain assets, breaking the boundaries between traditional finance and the crypto world. This year, the truly smart money has quietly begun to place bets.

CME Group announced that it will launch XRP futures trading on May 19, which means that Wall Street can legally enter the XRP market. More importantly, the launch of futures trading is actually a preparation for the upcoming futures and spot ETFs, so after XRP launches futures in May, it is likely to formally apply for ETFs in the second half of the year, and the outlook is quite good. Therefore, in the short term, it would be wise to look for a low entry point in the next couple of weeks and hold until May 17, which should see a small peak. To be honest, XRP is simply a crazy coin; it usually remains quiet, but once it gains momentum, it surges dramatically! Here in Asia, XRP's popularity is relatively low, but in the European and American markets, it is incredibly hot; every time there is a rise, it seems like a major trend is lurking behind! However, XRP's biggest problem is still its application scenarios. Just look at who is using XRP for payments? To be honest, almost no one! In comparison, I personally have more confidence in Solana; after all, in terms of on-chain activity, technical implementation, and overall ecosystem development, Sol is indeed much stronger and more stable! Additionally, don't forget about Ethereum! Before the Prague upgrade, ETH's momentum will definitely not be weak. According to Fibonacci analysis, the target for ETH's rebound at 0.382 can directly reach $2400! Can you keep up with this market trend?

Recently, due to the tariff war, the market has been fluctuating, but there have finally been signs of recovery. Small-cap MEME projects are still the main force in the primary market, attracting most of the traffic. However, the market lacks hot projects, and most of the liquid funds are not only flowing between top projects but also a portion remains specialized in MEME projects. With the resurgence of Binance Smart Chain's popularity this year, along with a slew of promotional activities by Binance, the hype around Binance Smart Chain has remained at a relatively high level. Compared to the SOL chain, Binance Smart Chain still falls a bit short. Although the number of MEME projects on Binance Smart Chain has increased significantly since the launch of the Four platform, it is still small compared to the pump platform. Binance still needs to work harder to catch up in this regard. From last year to this year, in addition to some frenzied meme coin explosions, there have also been many innovative mechanism projects that have attracted a lot of popularity and funds. Once they become hits, related projects emerge like bamboo shoots after rain, appearing one after another in a frenzy. Among them, there are certainly projects that ride the wave and exploit people. Now, as the enthusiasm for past new mechanism projects declines, various sectors are also settling down. Although they have made quite a few people wealthy, looking at the entire market, they have not brought significant changes to blockchain. The whole blockchain is still a game of financial capital, and the impact of technology is not as great as people imagine.

In the past week, BTC suddenly surged, breaking away from the 85k sideways level, with a continuous increase of 1000 dollars, rising to the 95k level. The week opened at 88.5k, peaked at 95.7k, and hit a low of 88.5k, with Saturday's close at 94.4k, resulting in a weekly increase of approximately 6.67%. Recently, BTC has been fluctuating around 94k, and it is normal for the market to rise for a few days before a spike in contracts. Recently, some friends asked me how to pay attention to market trends and determine when to increase positions or sell, given that BTC and ETH's ups and downs are determined by American investors. My answer is that the mainstream trading pair in the crypto market is USDT, but American investors prefer to deposit and withdraw using USDC. Therefore, fluctuations in USDC prices can indicate market trends. If one increases their position or engages in a conspiracy to buy, the obvious sign is selling USDC to exchange for USDT, which will lead to a drop in USDC prices, and BTC and ETH are likely to surge. Conversely, if USDC rises, it indicates a likely brewing bearish sentiment, or there may be a large-scale sell-off of BTC and ETH. We have experienced the worst times, and the current macro environment has recovered. Once the market continues to adjust and fully restores confidence, the situation will start to change from a rebound to a reversal. If interest rates are not cut in May, they are likely to be cut in June, which could coincide with the introduction of related policies, making the market poised for action. Therefore, the entire period of May and June is a good opportunity to accumulate positions at lower prices.

If 95k is not the peak or the peak hasn't been reached yet, then the consolidation period may be longer, and the price will oscillate while testing upward. But don't expect it to spike too high all at once, because it will be a slow grind that tires you out. Regarding the current situation, a few points need to be clarified. First of all, don't short at the top; if you're thinking about catching the peak and going all in on short positions right now? Confused, brother, the timing is wrong, the structure is also wrong, it's too early, trend-based short positions have no chance now. Secondly, we need to return to short-term trading. The wave of price action that started at 75k was a good time for long positions, and everyone made a good profit. But what about now? The structure is gone, it has turned into a short-term trader's market. Quick in and out, don’t get attached to positions. Starting next week, GDP data will become quite important. GDPNow has already lowered its expectations, and if the official data is disappointing, notable stocks may tremble, but the direction will still depend on emotional transmission. However, the current investors in Bitcoin seem quite calm, and it is estimated that it won't crash easily. Focus on short-term, watch the support at 83k and the resistance between 93k and 98k, and don’t always bet on the trend!

The market trend is really different from what everyone thought. Previously, many people believed that if the strong stocks fell, Bitcoin would not only hold steady but also rise against the trend. However, recently, the strong stocks have risen by more than 2%, and Bitcoin has not followed suit but instead experienced slight fluctuations. Next week, we will start to gamble on GDP. The latest GDPNow data has even downgraded the American GDP for the first quarter, which is a major indicator for the trading difficulty in May. Bitcoin's recent performance has indeed been somewhat laid-back; although the price has seen a slight correction, investor sentiment remains quite stable without any major ups and downs. The turnover rate has decreased, indicating that trading enthusiasm is not high. For medium to long-term investors, the support level at 83k still seems a bit precarious. The main reason is that this level has not undergone significant correction, making its foundation unstable. More and more people are accumulating positions in the range of 93k to 98k, and these individuals are quite patient. Especially those investors who did not sell at 74k are now even more composed; to put it simply, they are not short-term players. If 95k is the peak of this rebound, then the next likely scenario is a consolidation for at least two weeks. The price will oscillate around this area to shake out the uncertain players.

Since mid-March, BTC has performed better than U.S. stocks overall, reflecting a partially similar safe-haven attribute to gold. Around April 8, both BTC's RSI and MACD showed signs of bottom divergence, combined with sentiment indicators reaching extreme fear levels, forming a recent bottom. As of now, both the MACD fast line and slow line have risen above the zero axis, indicating a market trend shift from bearish to bullish. With Bitcoin's breakthrough, the overall sentiment in the crypto market has warmed up. BTC has once again broken through a key resistance level, and the market seems to gradually regain confidence. While Bitcoin has always been the focus of the market, many overlook the potential of altcoins. Historically, the explosion of altcoins has always lagged behind the rise of Bitcoin; when the market starts to heat up, it is a good time to position low-risk altcoins. For altcoins to achieve significant upward movement, we need to see actual application scenarios driving demand growth. Historically, we have only seen significant growth in altcoins during periods of ample liquidity. However, based on the indicators we track, the likelihood of significant liquidity influx in the crypto market is low. This reduces the probability of large-scale increases in altcoins in the short term. The projects that can truly succeed are those with teams that are genuinely building, not those relying on short-term hype. As the market warms up, opportunities to choose quality altcoins are gradually increasing. To truly seize investment opportunities, attention must be paid to projects that have real users, profitability, team resilience, and long-term value. We need to return to the fundamentals, as this is the right path for investing in altcoins.

After the recent chaotic antics of the Chuanzi regarding tariffs, Old Bao suddenly backed down and eased restrictions, inexplicably driving the market to rise for two consecutive days. I'm so tired of hearing about trade wars and tariff skirmishes! Speaking of Bitcoin leading the charge these days, Ethereum is also following along, nibbling on the leftovers. Retail investors complain every day that Ethereum is crawling up like a snail, but complaints aside, it's still rising. After a 32-day wait, the Ethereum spot ETF finally made a strong move. An increase of over 6,000 units in a single day, and many people have been waiting so long that their hair has turned gray! But what's the use? The idea of Ethereum breaking away from Bitcoin and flying solo is simply a pipe dream; the market's liquidity is as bad as constipation, and Ethereum can only be a tailgater to Bitcoin. Moreover, everyone should have noticed by now. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrency has surpassed 3 trillion, which looks quite intimidating, right? But getting funds to enter the market isn't that easy! This market is a cunning trickster, likely to consolidate here and then create a false breakdown. When you foolishly cut your losses, it will abruptly surge, treating you like a fool! Another thing is that the market is full of gamblers! Most people think they are the chosen ones, crazily leveraging up and fantasizing about overnight wealth. So no matter whether your position is in profit or loss now, you must set your take-profit and stop-loss levels! When it’s time to cut losses, cut losses; when it’s time to run, run. Never hold on stubbornly! Don’t think you can withstand it; this broken market specializes in punishing those who are defiant. If you dare to go head-to-head, it can leave you with nothing! In this day and age, preserving your capital is the key. Don’t be a gambler; as long as you’re alive, there’s a chance to turn things around.

Official information disclosed by TRUMP MEME states that the 'TRUMP DINNER' hosted by Trump will take place on May 22 in Washington. The first 220 TRUMP token holders will be invited, and the top 25 token holders will enjoy a private VIP reception with Trump, followed by a special VIP tour of the White House the next day. All attendees must pass a background check and undergo KYC and compliance review for their wallets. Guests are not allowed, and once the registration information is submitted, it cannot be changed. Following the announcement, TRUMP's price skyrocketed, reaching a peak of $14.37. According to monitoring, after the news of the TRUMP dinner was released, a whale spent 5 million USDC to purchase 407,467 TRUMP at a price of $12.27. Subsequently, this whale sold 407,467 TRUMP for a total of $5.73 million in less than half an hour, making a profit of $731,800 in under 30 minutes. Another long-term TRUMP liquidity provider removed liquidity from two wallets this morning around 8 AM, receiving 211,977 TRUMP and 18,376 SOL. Now, these two wallets are among the top 220 holders, giving them a chance to receive invitations to the two TRUMP dinners. This individual purchased 332,424 TRUMP at a price of $2.41 on the day of listing and added liquidity. At its peak, these tokens were worth over $24 million.

Bitcoin prices have been in a continuous downward trend since January, and the overall crypto market has remained sluggish. However, starting last night, BTC rebounded, reaching a peak price of over $93,000, which may signal that Bitcoin is starting a new long-term upward trend. The entire crypto market has also moved in sync with Bitcoin's price, with many cryptocurrencies recording double-digit increases. For a moment, voices of a bullish comeback are everywhere. What caused the crypto market to suddenly rebound significantly? How will the market trend in the future? In the early hours of today, Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods will not reach 145%, and tariffs will decrease significantly but will not be zero. When asked if he would take a tough stance against China, he said he would not. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin hinted at a loosening of tariff policies during a closed-door meeting at JPMorgan. White House Press Secretary Levitt stated at a press conference that Trump's relationship with China is moving in the right direction. Today marks a day of compromise in the market. Trump seems to have made concessions on trade policy and Powell's position, leading to a rise in stock index futures. Musk also announced he would gradually step back from the Government Efficiency Office to return to Tesla's main business. The market is like this; it will always force you to bow your head and admit defeat. The dollar continues to recover some of yesterday's losses. Meanwhile, the stock market strengthened, and there were some small purchases in the bond market. The market is eager to hear good news. Today's good news is that Trump has remained silent on trade issues. This may lead some market participants to believe that he is eager to reach an agreement and that any potential developments could reverse the market.

To be honest, Lao Bao is quite objective and responsible, but the market always thinks of him as a savior. But why should he care so much? He's just focusing on the economy and inflation, and he's doing quite well. I can only say that both Chuanzi and Lao Bao are not wrong; they're just standing in different positions. Who knows? Maybe the two of them are hiding in a villa drinking red wine and chatting. Trump slams the table and says, 'Bao Bao, I'll be the villain!' Powell smiles and replies, 'Pu Pu, how can I bear to let you carry it all alone?' We retail investors are too far from the sources of information, foolishly arguing about who is right and who is wrong, while they might be laughing at us. Back to Bitcoin, it has been fluctuating in the 83 to 87K range for almost five weeks now. This round of decline has finally allowed everyone to catch their breath and think calmly about the next steps. The fluctuations are almost at their peak now, with both bulls and bears being quite even. Personally, I still lean towards bearishness; recently, it has been rising slowly for several hours and then dropping in just a few minutes, with major movements all happening at night. The market needs to exhaust everyone's patience with both long and short positions before deciding which way to run. In the medium term, 74K is the bottom, and BlackRock has bought over 30 million dollars worth of Bitcoin, increasing their position for three consecutive days, and stablecoins are also starting to flow in. If it breaks below 83K, the bears will still have the upper hand. But if it really breaks above 87K, then we will see a wave of one-sided rebounds. The longer the fluctuations last, the less likely it is to be a bad thing for the larger trend ahead.

On April 21, the US dollar index further dropped to 98.68, gold soared to $3,355, and Bitcoin rebounded above $85,500. Trump shared insights on negotiations, emphasizing that those who have gold hold the power, which stimulated a surge in demand for precious metals. Analysts believe that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in May or June, which will drive Bitcoin to rise faster. Trump stated on social media that the golden rule of negotiation and success is that those who own gold make the rules. Additionally, he pointed out that businessmen who criticize tariffs are not good at business, but what they truly lack is political acumen. They do not understand or realize this. I am the best friend capitalism has ever had in America. Analysts noted that despite Bitcoin showing resilience, past experiences, the current economic uncertainty, and selling pressure in the market still lead investors to remain cautious, awaiting clearer entry signals. He pointed out that investments from institutions like Strategy and Tether may accelerate Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle. Bitcoin's performance remains closely linked to broader monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in May or June could inject more funds into the system, thereby driving Bitcoin to rise faster.

The Federal Reserve has long prided itself on its independence from political pressure. However, with Trump's intensified attacks on Powell's refusal to cut interest rates, this tradition is facing new pressures. On Thursday, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that if I wanted him out, he would leave quickly, believe me. The president further emphasized on his social media platform that Powell's dismissal came too slowly! This attack is one of Trump's sharpest moves to date, aimed at undermining the political independence of an institution that has historically been insulated from the White House to ensure economic stability management. Powell spoke on Wednesday against political interference, stating that the Federal Reserve will make decisions solely based on what is best for the American people. Powell said, 'This is the only thing we are supposed to do, and we will never be influenced by any political pressure. Our independence is a legal issue. We cannot be dismissed unless there is cause, and our terms are long, seemingly indefinite.' Nevertheless, this has not stopped Trump from trying to fire the Federal Reserve chairman. Trump accused Powell of failing to take sufficiently aggressive action to support economic growth, claiming that the Federal Reserve chairman is playing politics by maintaining stable interest rates.

It is said that Powell is quite tough, directly stating that we shouldn't expect them to step in to save the market! He even emphasized that the Federal Reserve will not be led by political pressure. Doesn’t this sound like an open challenge to Trump? Trump must be furious; I think he should really fire Powell and bring in someone more compliant. What good is it to keep someone like this? Just causing chaos! As soon as Powell opens his mouth, the market goes weak. Why? As mentioned before, the core of the market's sharp decline is the strong uncertainty in policy, compounded by expectations constantly being disappointed. The tariff issue has left people on edge, and at such times, we can only rely on tariff policies to solve the problems ourselves; the Federal Reserve’s interference is useless. As for what the Federal Reserve will do next, we have to wait to see the situation after the tariffs are implemented in early April. What about inflation? How is the economy doing? Didn’t Federal Reserve Governor Waller say that if the tariffs are only 10%, and there’s no significant reaction in inflation, while the economy slows down a bit, then rate cuts could be on the table? But if there’s a major shock, Powell could play the role of the white knight, not only cutting rates but also possibly unleashing big moves, like buying assets to expand the balance sheet. As for reducing the balance sheet, it will definitely stop by the end of the second quarter or at the latest the third quarter. Their usual tactic is to keep the market suppressed and not let you get too excited too early. If they start calling for rate cuts now, there won’t be any surprises when the actual cuts happen. So Powell's firmness this time around actually makes the previous speculation that rate cuts might still be possible in May or June more plausible. It's just a deliberate way to assert the Federal Reserve's authority.

The market won't reverse that quickly now, so there's no need for us to rush; we just need to be patient and wait. Don't be misled by the current fluctuations; many things haven't reached their time yet. First of all, we can't just focus on tariffs in the current market. Although tariffs are quite important, the biggest trouble for U.S. stocks or global risk assets this year is actually the chain reaction caused by the significant reduction in spending by the big players. The economy has its transmission and lagging effects; when the big players cut spending, economic growth has to slow down, leading to fewer jobs, and a slew of subsequent problems. So we need to broaden our perspective and not just focus on one point. Regarding the recent market trend, if you've made money, it's better to run quickly, regardless of what you bought, and don't keep your positions too high. Don't always think about making a bit more; taking profits when they are good is the hard truth. Don't expect any liquidity-rich market conditions this year before the Federal Reserve recognizes reality and shifts its policy. So, everyone shouldn't think the market can suddenly become bullish. Speaking of Bitcoin, the strong resistance at the daily level is just a short-term peak; it dropped from last month's 88.8k to around 87k, with specific resistance near 86.8. If it falls below 83k, it will attempt to reach 80k again, while 79k is the low point of the corrective wave.

Recently, altcoins have been experiencing a lot of issues, and it feels like the market is a bit cold. The big players seem to think that if they don't act soon, they might lose their chance. First, on April 1st, ACT, claiming to be the leader in AI memes, collapsed, dragging down a bunch of meme altcoins and kicking off various performances in the altcoin market for April. The project team attributed this avalanche to the reduction of leverage in Binance contracts and the selling by market makers. Half a month later, the price of ACT is still flat, showing no signs of recovery, and it is expected to drop again soon. Not long after, on April 13th, the big player pulled OM back to pre-liberation levels in a dramatic display.
Before the crash, OM was once ranked thirtieth in market capitalization across the network and was touted as the hot RWALayer-1 blockchain. However, the most well-known aspect of this project is still the currently popular figure in the Chinese crypto community, Ni Da, who was an early builder of OM. The direct cause of OM's collapse was reportedly due to reckless forced liquidation by a centralized exchange. However, the actual reason is said to be infighting between the project team and market makers. Recently, as more information has come to light, it seems that the project team's focus is not on developing the project, but mainly on managing the centralized exchange and maintaining market capitalization. It feels like market makers have been dropping the ball frequently lately, and it's unclear if it's intentional. An IP, which claims to have abundant funds, also collapsed by a third in the middle of the night only to quickly rebound. Some traders believe that this flash crash might have been a deliberate attempt by the project team to manipulate the market and create a short squeeze, as the price trend of the IP token is also heavily controlled by large players.

OM went from $6 to $0.5. Speaking of which, we've been in the crypto space for a long time and have seen our fair share of ups and downs. In fact, many of the knockoff projects from last year to this year have been pretty bad, but the way the market manipulators behave in these knockoff projects is even worse. If you’ve been around long enough, you must have seen many projects crash. If you’re stuck in a position, just accept it. That's how the crypto world is; you win some, you lose some. Right now, both the US stock market and Bitcoin are experiencing slight increases. Trump keeps adjusting tariffs, which feels like a smokescreen; the actual tariffs might not be that severe. The Federal Reserve's Waller has also spoken out, saying that if the average US tariff really reaches 25%, inflation could spike temporarily, but the economy would likely go into recession. If that happens, he supports quickly cutting interest rates significantly to rescue the situation. However, if tariffs are around 10%, inflation will linger, but the economic impact won't be large, so the Fed will have to be careful about cutting rates. If inflation can drop back to 2%, there might be rate cuts in the second half of the year. In short, Waller believes that if tariffs really rise to 25%, the US economy will likely collapse, and cutting rates would only delay the inevitable, not save the situation.

Now the only thing that is still being hit by tariffs is imported cars and spare parts. There is also the possibility of negotiation and easing of tariff issues with Dongda. In the next period of time, tariffs may gradually release positive effects. The tariffs on April 2 are the worst version, and there is almost no possibility of implementation. The harm of tariffs will gradually decrease. But in addition to tariffs, the economy cannot be ignored. This has also become a problem. If the economy is good, the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates. If the economy is not good, the Fed's interest rate cut means that the possibility of recession will increase. The economy will be the next headache. The focus should still be on the GDP data released at the end of April, which will be more important. Back to the big cake, the weekly U-shaped reversal trend is similar to that after 519, and the price hit a new record high. The weekly bullish engulfing, no tariff exemptions for electronic products were announced on Friday, and when the negative news can no longer break a new low, it is a sign of a market reversal. In the early stage, the weekly bulldozer-like slight increase, the main upward wave opened in the middle and late stages close to the interest rate cut, and the shipment was close to the new high before the interest rate cut. With the two days of the weekend, the bulls have strengthened a lot. Another friend began to ask if the trend has reversed? I personally think that now is the eve of a reversal. The bulls are strong, and the short-term should be switched to low-long as the main, high-short as the auxiliary, and only short large points.