小阿猫

As of April 29, 2025, Bitcoin is exhibiting a volatile yet strong trend, with prices fluctuating narrowly around $95,000, showing a slight increase of 0.5% over the past 24 hours. However, influenced by multiple factors, the market remains cautious.

**Macroeconomic Perspective**: Weak U.S. economic data poses short-term pressure: the Dallas Fed manufacturing index plummeted to -35.8, reaching a new low since May 2020, reflecting the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the real economy. Coupled with geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, market risk aversion has increased.

**Market Performance**: Bitcoin demonstrates resilience in diverging from traditional assets. Despite the S&P 500 having adjusted down by 3.66% over the past month, Bitcoin has seen a monthly increase of 8.31%, indicating that some of its safe-haven attributes have been activated, particularly attracting capital inflows in a high-volatility environment. On the technical front, Bitcoin has stabilized above the 21-week moving average and the $87,045 Fibonacci retracement level, with a medium-term target pointing towards the range of $103,000 to $108,000, but it needs to break through the whale selling pressure zone between $94,000 and $99,000 (approximately 1.76 million BTC).

**Risk Factors**: High-leverage trading during periods of low market liquidity exacerbates volatility, with over 130,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours, totaling $343 million, reflecting that short-term speculative risks remain. Additionally, the Fed's policy dilemmas and tariff uncertainties may continue to disrupt market sentiment.

In summary, Bitcoin may maintain a volatile stance in the short term, but in the long term, it is supported by institutional accumulation (such as a $3 billion inflow into spot ETFs in a single week) and an anti-inflation narrative, still possessing upside potential after a technical correction. Attention should be paid to policy turning points and breakthroughs in key technical levels.

Trump's tax reform, as the largest tax policy adjustment in the United States in nearly thirty years, has sparked widespread controversy since its implementation in 2017. Its core content includes reducing the corporate income tax from 35% to 21%, simplifying personal income tax brackets, and allowing multinational companies to repatriate overseas profits at a preferential tax rate, aiming to stimulate investment, create jobs, and attract capital back to the U.S. In the short term, the tax reform has boosted the rise of the U.S. stock market, reduced the unemployment rate to historical lows, and pushed economic growth rates above 3%, being seen as an important achievement of Trump's early administration. However, its long-term effects are highly questioned: on one hand, the actual effective tax rate reduction for corporations is limited, and a large amount of repatriated funds has not been used for productive investment but instead directed towards stock buybacks and shareholder dividends, exacerbating wealth disparity; on the other hand, the federal budget deficit is expected to increase by more than $1.4 trillion over the next decade, with the national debt-to-GDP ratio approaching historical highs, laying a debt risk for the economy. Furthermore, the global wave of competitive tax cuts triggered by the tax reform has intensified the imbalance in the international tax system, and although the 'territorial tax' system alleviates corporate tax avoidance motives, it has led to a significant shrinkage of foreign capital stock in developing countries, further tearing the global economic structure. Despite Trump’s attempts to continue and strengthen the tax reform during his second term (such as proposing to replace income tax with tariffs), its feasibility is questioned due to inflationary pressures and contradictions in fiscal sustainability. Overall, while the tax reform has temporarily boosted market confidence, it has failed to fundamentally address structural economic problems, instead highlighting the uneven distribution of policy dividends and the deep challenges of globalization governance.

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