Sell high and buy low in a volatile market, operate every day, it seems that you can make a profit from both long and short positions, but in fact, it is a foolish operation. Whenever a trend comes, you will miss it. If you want to make a lot of money, there is only one way: follow the trend. The fat man, Ouyang, Banmu, Tony, which one of them did not rise by the trend. Treat all the market conditions as trend markets, and when the trend comes, you will not only win, but also stop losses in time when you make mistakes in the volatile market. This is the most important thing in contract trading. Of course, our Liangzi is an exception. After all, he has unlimited bullets. If he fails to pass the level, he has to start over. He has countless chances to start over, but how many times do you have?
Since we've reached this point, let's make another prediction. It's definitely not a good idea to go long here; let's abandon the fantasy that this is a pullback in a bull market. We have already entered the early stages of a bear market. It's highly likely that we will continue to fluctuate at this level until later positive news stimulates a move upward, followed by a smoother drop.
Figure 1: On October 24, 2019, China aimed to make blockchain a crucial technology for independent innovation, clearly defining its main direction, increasing investment efforts, focusing on overcoming a number of key core technologies, and accelerating the innovative development of blockchain technology and industry.
Figure 2: On March 2, 2025, U.S. President Trump released a series of statements on his self-created social media platform Truth Social, announcing the promotion of establishing a "Cryptocurrency Strategic Reserve," explicitly mentioning that Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) would be included in this reserve. This news quickly triggered a significant surge in the cryptocurrency market, with the price of Bitcoin breaking $90,000 in a short time, and an increase of over 10% within 24 hours. Trump stated that this strategic reserve plan aims to enhance the cryptocurrency industry and ensure that the United States becomes a global leader in cryptocurrency. He also emphasized that this move is a response to the "years of corrupt attacks" from the Biden administration. Market analysis suggests that Trump's statements not only brought about a short-term price increase but may also prompt a reevaluation of global cryptocurrency regulatory strategies.
The two figures are already very clear; history will repeat itself. Trend reversals require exchanging time for space, using large funds to lift the bottom, rather than changing beliefs with one bullish and one bearish candle.
Famous trader Su Zhu went long on ETH at an average price of 3135 and is currently losing 1000 points.
Looking at the levels, it is highly probable that he thought a head and shoulders bottom was formed on the daily chart, and then heavily invested during a false breakout, but did not consider that the downward sloping neckline is actually a weak signal. If the key resistance line is broken but not held, it is still a waste. So you see, even famous traders make mistakes, let alone the less experienced analysts. Prices rise in a bull market and fall in a bear market, while giving retail investors a bunch of nonsensical analysis and misleading instructions.