NoBTC

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) increasing means the altcoin portfolio is definitely suffering.

But have you noticed that for the past 1-2 months, BTC.D has clearly decreased by over 5% from its peak (a 5% drop is quite significant, not negligible at all), yet the altcoin portfolio still continues to shrink, how is that possible?

So when we say BTC.D decreases -> altcoins increase, what does that mean?.
In fact, it's true that when BTC.D decreases, altcoins increase, but specifically it means an increase in market capitalization, not an increase in price.
Looking at new projects and token vesting of that size, how can prices possibly increase?

In summary: $BTC and $ETH remain the best, safest, and most sustainable choices.
If we are currently in a downtrend, BTC and ETH can absolutely hold + DCA for another 4 years, but getting involved with altcoins during a downtrend is likely to lead to losses.

I have a reasoning like this. It's just a reasoning, other experts are welcome to discuss if they like. As for the haters, just block them.

Usually, when Trump's son makes an announcement, the long-term trend is typically upward; it has been the same in the past, and it probably will be now too. But the issue lies in whether this 'dip' coincides with his announcement, which is about timing.

Typically, the market reacts by going LONG, and it may very well get killed long again. Additionally, there are negative news regarding unemployment and other factors. Plus, there's the FUD about the Chinese military approaching Fujian (near Taiwan)...

All of this bad news could make the market turn red. And that’s when the boss will say to buy the dip.

This is an image of Altcoin season operating

the scenario from last year repeats with new coins pushing up a bit and then going down

price goes up a bit to lure you in and then crashes

do you still have faith?

Anything that increases too quickly and strongly must then adjust or reverse downward, which is essential!

$ETH is no exception, with continuous long FOMO and dip buying, and signs of profit-taking from big players (good news keeps coming out but the price is no longer breaking the peak)

I still hold a portion of $ETH, because the interest rate cut story is still ongoing:

- Firstly, the FED still cannot finalize the next interest rate cut this year - the likelihood is high for September, but many factors still need to be considered.

- By the end of the year, as the FED chairman's term is ending, Trump and the new FED chairman candidates will be free to dance and make promises, reducing interest rates and easing credit for the FOMO crowd.

What needs to be recognized correctly is that despite $BTC and possibly $ETH having great growth potential due to the story of money printing like water, this will not be true for altcoins!

Because the entire market is currently in a hold mindset, the belief to hold has gradually diminished, and everyone is shifting to trading.

---> The current market is too jeet for the altcoin wave to sustain,....

---> The financial market and especially for us, the altcoin market is entering a significant recession phase.

The bottom of the financial market is when the keyword bankruptcy floods the headlines and conversations, the bottom of the crypto market is when a series of altcoin projects collapse and cease operations completely.

The market is really broken, this season everything is too difficult, although altcoins were recently up, many brothers have not yet recovered, at this point quite a few brothers have left the market.

Indeed, not everyone can survive in this market, some come, some go, and some stay.

And each cycle will unfold differently, we should not apply the old logic of previous cycles to new ones, because they are fundamentally different.

Recently, many brothers in the meme wave have switched to applying technology to meme trading and are too focused on developers; meme developers this season are just looking to farm their friends, memes belong to the community, with interesting stories that are easy to understand and humorous, then developers will dump everything, and after that, the good CTO teams combine many klos and gather shill to pump it up. It's not that developers will invest money to push it anytime soon.

Have you brothers found this market boring yet, or are you still trying to change to pursue it?

ETH "too big already" can it still rise strongly?

I know many of you might think that ETH has a market cap that is too large, how can it increase sharply like smaller altcoins?

The reality is that it's true. ETH is unlikely to surge x5 or x10 in just a few days.

However, we need to understand one thing clearly:

- $ETH is no longer a coin for "quick wins".

It has become the largest infrastructure platform in the crypto world, where most DeFi projects, stablecoins, and NFTs are built.

What is the most important thing?

ETH can still grow very strongly, it just grows in a slower, more stable way, and with less risk compared to smaller altcoins.

Here is a simple example:
• You invest in a small altcoin, you might profit quickly by 3-5 times, but it's also very easy to lose 80% overnight.

• You invest in ETH, you might profit less (for example only x2), but the risk of losing your capital decreases significantly.

This is more realistic, more manageable, and you will sleep better.

Investing is always about managing risk and balancing profit.

$ETH currently is the asset that provides the best risk/return ratio among crypto options.

2020-2021 financial peak!

Everyone is encouraging each other to hold!

.....

Until now, after most holders have lost all their money, there are people who held millions, tens of millions, and hundreds of millions of USD and also lost, so everyone has started to go learn trading!

Therefore, the market in the coming years will be very risky, as funds will concentrate on top assets, gold, valuable real estate, top stocks, $BTC,.... Because basically, aside from being the safest channel in all sectors, new traders and newcomers will also only focus on trading here!

......

Mid and low cap assets in the next 2-3 years will be extremely risky; to make a strong comeback, one must wait for the stage where most mid and low cap assets die off in droves, then it will be the ultimate pain of the market!

Prices are reacting to the scenario that the Fed will not lower interest rates in September as the deadline of August 1 approaches, and U.S. President Donald Trump has just signed an order imposing retaliatory tariffs on many countries, with new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41%. This time, there will be no postponement for negotiations.

Goods suspected of circumventing tariffs by passing through other countries will be subject to an additional 40% tariff, according to the White House.

Hawkish FED combo + PCE higher than market forecast + The market is a bit too cheerful

The FED remains too hawkish in the face of Trump's pressure, especially after the unexpected rise in PCE data supporting a tough stance: "Inflation comes from tariffs"

In the short term, we are likely to see a sideways movement followed by a correction in the market, before entering a larger bullish wave at the end of the year when the interest rate cut story returns!

With $ETH, there is still a little room for growth + investors have been heavily shorting in recent days ----> Still hoping for a rise to take out the short liquidity before entering a correction

The decline of Bitcoin price below 115,000 USD may be due to a combination of many factors. One of the main reasons is the volatility of the cryptocurrency market in general and investor sentiment. After a strong growth period, price corrections are normal.
In addition, macroeconomic factors also play an important role. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is considering monetary policies, such as raising interest rates, which could reduce the attractiveness of risky assets like Bitcoin. Global economic instability, inflation, and concerns about recession also lead investors to shift towards safer assets.
Moreover, sell pressure from miners and large institutions also contributes to this price drop. After reaching a peak, many investors take profits, creating a wave of sell-offs. The legal situation in some countries also negatively affects the market. Regulatory tightening may undermine investor confidence.
However, for many analysts, this price drop is just a part of the market cycle, and Bitcoin still has strong recovery potential in the long term.

ALTCOIN IS STILL "SILENT" DESPITE BTC AND ETH RECOVERING?

After the latest FED meeting early this morning, everything is much clearer.

1. Interest rates remain unchanged. But there is nothing to call a “sigh of relief.”

The FED still holds the interest rate at 5.25% – not increased, but there are no signals of a decrease either.

This is important, as money is still not cheap, and new capital is not easily flowing into higher-risk markets (altcoins).

At the same time, the balance sheet reduction policy (QT) continues. This means the FED is still pulling money out of the system and has not opened the liquidity pump as many had hoped.

2. Why hasn't the FED loosened?
Chairman Powell stated frankly: inflation is cooling down, but it is still not safe enough to let go.

Unexpected factors such as transportation costs, food prices, and tariffs, if they suddenly increase again, could cause everything to “reverse.”

Therefore, the current policy is to maintain stability and observe further – meaning they choose patience over haste.

3. What does this mean for the crypto market?
Currently, capital is still concentrated in places with clear intrinsic strength – such as BTC, ETH, and some top platforms with practical applications.

Meanwhile, small altcoins – which were once a “fertile ground” for strong price surges – are still left open, as there are no catalysts from public funds or new investments.

4. What scenario for September?

Currently, according to valuations from the financial market, the probability that the FED will continue to keep interest rates unchanged at the meeting on September 17 is over 50%.

Mr. Bessent is continuously pushing for regulatory easing plans for banks. The goal is to quickly address the enormous borrowing thirst of the U.S. government as buyers of U.S. bonds are disappearing.

🔶Major world economies and large asset management funds have maintained a trend for over a decade: Continuously reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, in favor of gold. And with no buyers of bonds from either inside or outside, the U.S. is in dire need of liquidity.

🔶The Fed is selling Treasuries, foreign entities are selling, and the U.S. Treasury is forced to change regulations so that commercial banks can take over from the Fed. The U.S. is urgently amending laws to give banks more financial room.

🔶Specifically, the regulation on the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) requires banks to hold capital reserves based on total assets (including U.S. bonds). The issue is that the current SLR does not differentiate between risky assets and safe assets, so government bonds are also “tied down” like credit loans.

-> The new regulation will remove U.S. bonds from SLR, freeing up a huge amount of financial space, but at the same time inflating the already stretched bubble to its maximum. Mr. Bessent hopes that long-term U.S. bonds yields will be pulled down to 0.3-0.6%, borrowing costs will decrease, and the U.S. government will breathe easier. (This is also the reason why the GENIUS stablecoin bill was rushed through, as I mentioned in the previous article).

🔶In 2018, there was a similar effort that failed because Trump did not have enough bipartisan support. Now the circumstances have changed. Interest rates continue to fall and the U.S. continues to inflate the already tight asset bubble.

The increase in money supply will lead to asset prices being revalued. Stocks, gold, Bitcoin will rise, but the prices of goods and services will also increase, leading to inflation.

Unfortunately, wages (of workers) are always the last to increase in the money pumping cycle. Companies will raise your wages only after they have had a few favorable quarters, while asset prices, goods, and services have already surged ahead.

Workers will not see their wages increase until the cost of living has skyrocketed, and the wage increases are often not enough to offset inflation.
And that is capitalism.

The cash flow is flowing back into the market ahead of the FOMC 🗓

Looking at the USDT Balance Lending & Borrowing Protocol chart, we can see that the $USDT supply from the #AAVE platform is showing signs of cooling down and reversing back into the market.

From July 16 to July 25, over 1.3B $USDT has been repaid back to the #AAVE platform from entities as well as major players in the market.

On July 25 alone, this was the day with a record cash flow since August of last year.

👉 Currently, cash flow is gradually being poured into the market ahead of the interest rate announcement, and the likelihood of the FED maintaining the current interest rates is quite high. With the good Q2 GDP situation, if the FED chairman has a "dovish" tone + cash flow from the #AAVE platform flowing back into the market, it is very likely that tonight and tomorrow we will see a strong recovery of the market.

📌 Quick summary $SUI

SUI has just broken out past the $4.05 level, with the potential to continue towards $4.24 and further if the momentum holds.

The entry level targets a retest of the breakout, with a cautious stop loss below the support zone.

Targets can extend up to $6.70 if it continues to run along the bullish structure.

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🔍 Overall technical assessment

TipRanks: RSI ~69 (neutral), MACD +0.25, most Moving Averages (MA5, MA20, MA50…) clearly signal Buy → overall technical assessment rates Buy / Strong Buy.

Investing.com:

Daily / Weekly frame: Strong Buy;

4H / 1H frame: bullish but occasionally neutral (mixed signals) — further confirmation needed from actual price action.

Token Unlock Rainbow: the price drop wave of ~44 million SUI (~1.3% of total supply, valued at $189M) may create short-term pressure, but if it is well absorbed, it could give a push for the next rally.

ETF fund: Canary Capital is filing an ETF for SUI, which if approved in 2025 will provide strong price growth momentum.

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$SUI /USDT – Breakout Watch! 🚨🔥

$SUI is fluctuating around the $3.90–$4.00 range, near the breakout zone of $4.05 — a level that many analysts believe could open the door to the next strong rally. The price has just rebounded after a previous spike, with selling pressure appearing after hitting a peak of $4.44 (CoinDesk: SUI reversed gains… ).

Price Structure & Momentum

The price increased by 15% to surpass $4.23 on July 26, with strong volume, creating momentum for the next leg up ($5.64 → $6.70 → $8) if the breakout is confirmed (CoinDesk: Sui surges 15%… ).

However, after that, the price fell and closed below $4.20, forming an initial double bottom pattern at $4.08–$4.09 (CoinDesk).

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Key Levels

• Resistance: $4.20 – $4.24 (a level that has been rejected multiple times) and $4.44 (recent peak)
• Support: $4.05 (breakout consolidation zone), and $3.31 (a deeper support zone)

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Trade Setup

• Entry Zone: $4.05 – $4.10 (retest breakout zone)
• Stop Loss: $3.95 – $3.92 (below breakout support or weekly low)
🎯 TP1: $4.20 – $4.24
🎯 TP2: $4.60 – $4.80
🎯 TP3: $5.50 – $6.70 (AB=CD target zone and upward leg according to structure analysis)

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Pro Tip:

Wait for a Daily candle to close above $4.20 with increased volume to confirm the breakout. If the price breaks below $4.05 for several consecutive sessions, this setup will be invalidated.

FOMC July - interest rates unchanged, market expectations collapse.

📌 Fed keeps interest rates at 4.25–4.5%, but this time there were 2 votes to cut from Bowman and Waller (the first time since 1993 that two members of the Board of Governors publicly opposed keeping interest rates unchanged).
-→ The Fed is polarized internally.

📌 The dot plot hasn’t changed much, indicating expectations of 2 rate cuts in 2025, but Powell doused cold water on September expectations: "The next step is largely neutral" - meaning no cuts and no increases, and very likely doing nothing at all.

📌 Mr. Powell acknowledged that Trump's tariff policy makes inflation risks harder to predict. The Fed cannot isolate the impact from tariffs, but also won't wait until everything is clear.
-→ The priority now is to control inflation expectations, regardless of public debt or politics.

📌 Fed's shocking statement: "We can handle inflation without raising interest rates."
-→ Market sentiment shifts from "Fed is about to cut" to "could have raised, but chose not to" (meaning there are no signals of any "loosening" here).

📌 Yield on US 2-year bonds surged, blowing away expectations of a rate cut in September. Futures contracts reflect a probability of keeping rates unchanged until September exceeding 55–60%.
-→ The market begins to reprice all easing expectations in H2/2025.

📌 Waller and Bowman want to cut due to concerns about a weakening labor market, but the Fed maintains its message: "If we cut early, we may not have finished battling inflation. If we cut late, it could harm employment."
-→ Mr. Powell again chooses to take a middle ground, avoiding the market trap and not yielding to Trump.

Red alert!

Read this article as soon as possible before the end of 1/8!

Profit-taking pressure has reached the highest level in history; what awaits us in the future?

On July 25, the crypto market recorded a profit-taking event from a super whale holding $BTC since 0.5$. This profit-taking event triggered a significant spike in the Net Realized Profit/Loss index, with a value reaching an all-time high of 3.7B$

This notable event serves as a test allowing MMs to gauge the current liquidity thickness, and indeed, the current liquidity is very deep and thick as it immediately absorbed all the profit-taking sell-off from the ancient super whale.

Historically, such notable events indicate the proactive behavior of optimizing profits from a group or organization ahead of sudden market fluctuations.

However, interpreting this signal requires finesse; while extreme profit-taking often coincides with peak price areas, it does not mean that large profit-taking events will quickly lead to a price decline.

This is a large supply that the market needs time to absorb; current liquidity is still thick enough for large sell-offs to continue to grind down liquidity.

Price reactions will follow immediately when liquidity is low.

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🐸 $PEPE/USDT – Breakout Watch! 🚨🔥

$PEPE is trading around $0.00001143 USDT, down about −1% in the last 24 hours and down nearly −12% over the past week, indicating weak momentum currently.

Structure on the 4H timeframe

The price is oscillating within a relatively narrow accumulation zone, with the RSI (14) currently around 51, neutral — not overbought or oversold. Stochastic and ADX give mixed signals but slightly lean towards Buy. Volume remains steady, with no spikes 🚧.

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Key Levels

• Resistance: $0.00001160 – $0.00001200 (resistance zone near yesterday's peak)
• Support: $0.00001100 – $0.00001090 (EMA99 and daily low)

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Trade Setup

• Entry Zone: $0.00001140 – $0.00001155 (resistance tail retest)
• Stop Loss: $0.00001100
🎯 TP1: $0.00001165
🎯 TP2: $0.00001200
🎯 TP3: $0.00001250 (strong breakout zone according to EMA analysis + short-term pattern)

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Pro Tip:

Wait for a 4H candle to close above the $0.00001160 level with increased volume and a significant rise in RSI (to 60+) to confirm the breakout. Avoid entering if the RSI remains around 50 without clear momentum.