Steel needs to be melted at high temperatures, and its melting point is 1538 degrees. Once ignorant thoughts are solidified, they are difficult to melt. Even if ignorant and ignorant thoughts are thrown into a 2,000-degree melting furnace, they may not be able to melt. Therefore, stay 10,000 meters away from people who are ignorant and solidified in their thinking. They are like infectious diseases, spreading stupidity everywhere, trying to find the truth and see the essence of things clearly. Arguing with ignorant people will only make you appear more ignorant.
#鲍威尔发言 I recommend a book to everyone, "The Hunters and Prey Under the Disguise of Civilization." This book discusses how, throughout global history to the present, hunters disguise themselves through civilization to prey on their targets, and it talks about this quite brutally, bloody, so those who are faint-hearted should be cautious. If you find that unsatisfying, I recommend another book, "The Food Chain Map of Human Ecological Civilization," which discusses how humans imitate nature to establish ecology and form a food chain map, also discussing it quite brutally, bloody, so those who are faint-hearted should be cautious. Introduction: The so-called class in your eyes is merely a map of the food chain in animal ecology; the so-called civilization in your eyes is merely a mask under which hunters disguise themselves. The natural way governs spring, summer, autumn, and winter; the human way controls life, aging, illness, and death. The natural way manages the seasons, while the human way controls the process of life, aging, illness, and death. Reading these two books will not overturn your worldview, but rather reshape it, allowing your perspective to be elevated, seeing humanity from a divine viewpoint, and understanding why we are called advanced animals. If these two books were placed in ancient times, regardless of the dynasty, whether in the West or the East, they would undoubtedly be the most forbidden of forbidden books and would lead to the execution of entire clans. We must think more deeply about what the meaning of human existence is: it is for hunting and being hunted, for capturing and being captured.
#美国加征关税 The pattern of global brokerage trade integration will be disrupted, forming an economic trade circle centered around geopolitical issues. In this context of conflict, many quality assets will depreciate, such as in the web3 field. Is there any type of global asset that can have strong consensus and more efficient circulation like gold? The risk reserves of sovereign funds in various countries are changing, becoming more diversified. When crises are looming, they also represent fluctuations of opportunity. History is remarkably similar; during the previous Trump administration, tariffs led to a global financial downturn. This time, since Trump announced tariffs on a global scale, the cryptocurrency market should short, but many are still holding onto their positions. What are you holding onto? This round of tariffs is more intense than before, it is global, not just a trade conflict between China and the United States. Whenever the world becomes chaotic, people are always seeking advantageous safe-haven assets to bottom-fish, in response to inflationary pressures or to hedge against other risks.
#美国加征关税 This time the global finance is about to collapse, the United States wants to reconstruct the industrial system, and Trump is the troublemaker in global politics, finance, and trade. How many people suffer from unwarranted disasters, gods fight, and the little ones suffer.
A supply chain worth one hundred billion, a market value of one trillion, a circulation rate of less than ten percent. If the deflation problem is not solved, it would be strange if this thing doesn't drop below five dollars in the long run.
Many people talk about having no connections, no background, no resources, no education, this and that, as if saying these things can earn them points. Only the weak emphasize these to gain sympathy; the strong remain silent and work with high profile. There is no fairness in the world; what is fairness? Fairness is a partial compromise of the strong towards the weak.
As long as your contract is profitable, the automatic position reduction indicator will always be on; the more profit you make, the brighter it shines, commonly known as automatic position reduction. As long as your contract incurs a loss, making that light turn on is a probabilistic event. Profit leads to automatic position reduction; losses will never lead to automatic position reduction. Those who have experienced automatic position reduction after many profits have never experienced automatic position reduction after losses. The authority of explanation lies with whoever has it; whoever says it counts.
Every transaction is a qualification for participating in wealth distribution. Trading is merely a proof that you are on the boat of wealth transfer, and it does not mean that you can profit 100%. The market is random and uncertain, and historical data can only serve as a reference. You must not treat historical data as the sole indicator.
Cognitive biases and cognitive prejudices are both forms of cognitive disorders. Cognitive bias refers to the imprecise interpretation of various information and data. Cognitive prejudice refers to the random interpretation of various information and data. Cognitive bias is an unconscious garbled behavior, while cognitive prejudice is a conscious garbled behavior. Cognition has limitations, cognition has boundaries, cognition has biases, and cognition varies in levels; all of this is quite normal, as human time and energy are extremely limited, making it impossible to understand everything. However, on your path forward, whenever you encounter cognitive obstacles, you must flatten them out, such as in trading. If you encounter various obstacles in trading, you must build bridges when you meet water and construct bridges when you meet mountains, so that you can move forward on the trading path.
#你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过? Relying solely on technical analysis cannot provide a sense of security in trading results. To achieve a sense of security in trading outcomes, even combining fundamentals, technicals, news, capital, and consensus is still far from sufficient, because this is the cryptocurrency world, this is finance, this is human nature. The market is a carrier of human nature, so you are not competing with the market, but rather with human nature. What is human nature? For example, greed is part of human nature, but if greed lacks the support of strength and boundaries, it becomes a curse. Among the vast waters, one can only drink a ladle to quench thirst; wanting to drink it all is beyond one's strength and capability, leading to either bursting from excess or drowning. Contracts, while amplifying the capital size, also proportionately amplify the speed of risk and loss.
#ETH再度冲击4K Short-term, whether long or short, the opportunities are too difficult to grasp, so try to lay out a medium to long-term plan and extend the time horizon, which allows for a more intuitive understanding of overall changes. Based on my own experience, anyone who frequently engages in short-term trading will eventually send themselves away. I used to trade short-term and researched many things, once thinking I was a short-term king, only to realize I had just happened to seize a few opportunities, and then, without any surprises, the frequent short-term trading buried me. Now, whether in spot or contracts, I resolutely do not engage in short-term trading and focus on medium to long-term strategies. If you don't open for business in March, you will eat from March when you do; if you don't open for business in three years, you will eat from three years when you do. The difficulty of short-term operations is far higher than that of medium to long-term, and countless traders in the cryptocurrency circle have ultimately lost their wealth due to frequent short-term trading, which is simply called a wealth-giving child.
#比特币四年周期将改变? If you learn and master all of this, while I can't say you'll surpass everyone, your understanding and insights into the industry will exceed those of most retail investors. I have come to realize that investing is like a race; you need to start earlier and run faster than other retail investors. For example, if others haven't bought, and you have, when others buy at a high price, you can cash out at a high price. Just look at how wealth circulates and where it circulates. If you want to make money in the cryptocurrency space, you need to be more professional than eighty percent of retail investors; you need to outperform eighty percent of retail investors to have a higher probability of achieving results. Whether in the primary market or the secondary market, retail investors are always each other's opponents. Even if two retail investors buy exactly the same spot, they are still competitors, the difference being one cashes out at a high price while the other is trapped at a high price. First, ask yourself if you are more professional than eighty percent of retail investors. If not, then learn more and strive to surpass eighty percent of retail investors. Why? According to the Pareto Principle, only twenty percent of retail investors can achieve positive results. The cryptocurrency market has risks; proceed with caution, and this does not constitute any investment advice. How to make money in the cryptocurrency space? You need to outperform eighty percent of retail investors.
Look at world history, observe historical changes, see how resources are allocated, who is in control of resources, who is distributing them, and how they are being distributed. Understand how resource allocation has evolved, from theocracy to monarchy, from monarchy to democracy. Look again at the evolution of resources and the evolution of asset forms. In this short piece of fewer than a hundred words, in-depth research can yield tens of thousands of words, or even hundreds of thousands in papers and publications. The higher-ups set the rules, the middlemen manage the rules, and the lower levels follow the rules; this is the same all over the world. In the business field, if the lower levels want to rise, they need to break the existing business models, scenarios, and services of the higher-ups; simply put, it’s called disruption.
#山寨季何时到来? When the big bull market erupts, there will definitely be a large-scale liquidation of retail investors' long contracts. The contract burden is too heavy, and the market cannot rise. Retail investors are always in a disadvantaged position. Whether it is in terms of capital, information, understanding, behavior, or means, retail investors are at the very bottom of the industry. Regarding the automatic reduction and liquidation of positions by exchanges, this will only occur in a profitable state; in a loss state, automatic reduction and liquidation never happen, which is inherently unfair. According to normal logic, if a profitable position is automatically reduced or liquidated, a corresponding losing position should also be automatically reduced or liquidated. However, in reality, such phenomena do not occur at all; the phenomenon of automatic reduction and liquidation only appears in losing positions. There should be a public blockchain specifically for matching contracts on-chain, which can connect with all contract counterparties globally, rather than being limited to counterparties of the exchange, creating an isolated island of contract trading. Regardless of which exchange conducts contracts, it should be implemented on-chain, not off-chain. As the most influential benchmark globally, Binance should deeply research on-chain scenarios for contracts.
#加密市场反弹 How to distinguish the cryptocurrency market cycle
Market performance in the early stage of the bull market:
• Moderate rise: Prices start to rise slowly from the bear market low, with low volatility. At this time, the market is still recovering confidence, and the upward momentum mainly comes from the purchase of early investors. In the early stage of the bull market, mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin began to rise, but the increase was relatively mild.
• Slight fluctuations: The overall market is in a stage of slight fluctuations, and prices have not yet reached a new high, but have shown a clear upward trend.
Volume performance:
• Increased trading volume: Trading volume has begun to increase, but has not yet reached a peak. Market activity has gradually increased, but overall trading volume is still at a medium level.
Market sentiment performance:
• Cautious optimism: Market sentiment has gradually shifted from pessimism in the bear market to optimism, but investors are still cautious, and many people are skeptical about the arrival of the bull market. Market sentiment has gradually shifted from pessimism in the bear market to cautious optimism. Investors are skeptical about the market's rise and are worried about falling again, but after seeing the continued rise in prices, some investors began to try to buy in small quantities.
• Fear and Greed Index: The Fear and Greed Index shows that greed in the market has begun to rise, but has not yet reached its peak. For example, on January 7, 2025, the Fear and Greed Index was 66.
Technology Innovation and Application Performance:
• New Technology Emergence: Technological innovation has begun to attract attention, and some new projects and applications have begun to emerge, but they have not yet been popularized on a large scale.
Policy and Regulatory Performance:
• Policy Environment Improvement: The policy environment has begun to change positively, and regulatory transparency has gradually increased, but no major policies have been introduced.
• Trading Volume: Trading volume has begun to increase slowly, but it is still at a low level. At this time, it is mainly professional investors and some early participants who are trading, and the overall market participation is not high.
• Momentum Indicator: The momentum indicator begins to show positive signals, but the upward momentum is weak. For example, the momentum indicator of Bitcoin will slowly rise from the bottom in the early stage, showing a certain upward trend, but it has not yet formed a strong upward momentum.
• Performance of Altcoins: Altcoins perform relatively weakly, and funds are mainly concentrated in mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Because the market funds are limited at this time... To be continued
The poor lose wealth for the sake of face, while the rich lose face for the sake of wealth. The poor may sacrifice wealth for dignity, while the rich may sacrifice dignity for wealth. The face of the poor is actually not worth much, but the poor often invest more expensive costs for the sake of face.
#加密市场回调 The Underlying Logic of Investment Investment Theory: Wealth Transfer Based on Value Storage and Bull-Bear Game Core Concepts · Value Storage: Investment assets serve as tools for value storage, capable of preserving or increasing the expected value of assets. Its value depends on market supply and demand, fundamental factors, and investment. Value Change: The value of assets can increase or decrease with changes in market conditions, economic environment, company performance, and other factors. Bull-Bear Game: The game between bullish (optimistic) and bearish (pessimistic) investors in the market, influencing asset prices through buying and selling transactions, thereby achieving wealth transfer. · Value Storage and Investment Choices Investors choose assets as tools for value storage based on their expectations of the future value of the assets. For example, investors may choose stocks, bonds, gold, real estate, or cryptocurrencies as value storage tools because they have certain potential for value preservation and appreciation. · Different assets have varying functions in value storage. For example, gold is seen as a safe-haven asset with relatively stable value during economic uncertainty or inflation; while stocks may appreciate during periods of company performance growth and market expansion. . Value Change and Market Dynamics · The value change of assets is influenced by a variety of factors. Fundamental factors such as a company's profitability, industry prospects, and economic policies affect the intrinsic value of assets. For example, breakthroughs in innovation and market share expansion for technology companies may drive up the value of their stocks. Market sentiment and expectations can also lead to asset price fluctuations. Investors' optimistic or pessimistic sentiments can influence asset prices through buying and selling behaviors. For example, under expectations of economic recovery, demand for risk assets increases, driving up their prices. The same applies to the cryptocurrency market. The greater the price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, the higher the efficiency of wealth transfer, achieved through different bull-bear gaming behaviors. Sometimes opportunities are created by waiting; patience is very important. Everything has its own rules, just like in the North, you cannot plant corn in winter; you must plant corn in spring and harvest in autumn.