崔得先生TRADER

BTC has been pulled up by the expectation of traditional financial interest rate cuts, and is currently under pressure from the upward trend line of the previous low! Be patient!
$BTC

BTC then rebounded but the panic index was still below 30. Use time for space!
$BTC #

BTC fell yesterday. With the rise of Dow Jones and Asian stock markets, the basic decline of BTC will not be too big! The right side continues to fluctuate. As long as traditional finance continues to rise, the probability of time changing space on the right side is high!
$BTC #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落

BTC No. 8/5 followed the collapse of the Asian market and hit the upward trend channel (yellow track) that has been constructed for a relatively large cycle since the bottom of this bear market. The overall rebound returned to the downward trend line but was hindered by the connection between the previous lows. Uptrend line.
Overall, I think a breakthrough or another retracement of the right pin low point depends on the attack and defense of the green trend line of the US stock market Dow Jones!
The CPI data released tomorrow may make a choice about the short-term direction!
Just keep an eye on the trends of U.S. stocks!
$BTC #美国CPI数据即将公布

Basically, the current trend of BTC is inseparable from the U.S. stock market. On the 8/8th, U.S. unemployment benefits applications dropped the most this year. The lower than expected rate caused the U.S. stock market to rebound rapidly. Doubts about the U.S. recession have weakened, and BTC has also rebounded significantly and returned to the previous downward trend. Line (orange in Figure 1), I think whether BTC can stand firm and continue to rise is related to the short-term trend of the U.S. stock market! I think the U.S. stock market is in the fourth wave correction wave of the main rising wave! Watch when the correction is completed!
$BTC

Looking at this massive spike in the hourly zone, BTC closed today sharply following the rebound of the US stock market Dow Jones, reaching the watershed (orange line) that was previously a downward trend.
You can pay attention to whether the closing prices in the past few days have stabilized or fallen below the downward trend line as a basis for the market outlook!
$BTC

BTC first starts with a longer time zone. This wave is matched with traditional financial non-agricultural data, the Sam Rule, worries about recession, and Japan’s interest rate hikes, triggering a crash in the Asian stock market and washing the market. However, this wave of cryptocurrency markets also collapsed, which is similar to the previous one. Before the start of the bull market, the US stock market triggered a meltdown in March 2020 and triggered the 312 crash. They are very similar in meaning. They are both complete washouts before the start of the bull market.
Of course, this incident is completely different from the background of the previous 312 epidemic. The trend of extreme panic triggered by a very small probability in an instant is indeed unpredictable for me. From the perspective of the macro cycle, this wave has indeed fallen below the BTC ETF effect in October. The upward trend channel, clean up all the positions entered by ETF! Basically, the upward trend channel of the big cycle is on the lower track, and it is still within the rising channel in the big cycle!
$BTC #加密市场反弹

ETH also broke through the mid-term uptrend channel (pink channel) that rose in October, and the long-term uptrend channel (yellow channel) also touched and broke through. The last time the same situation happened was before the rise in October. It also once broke through the long-term upward trend channel (yellow channel). Let’s see if it regains its position in the next few days!

$ETH #美国7月非农就业增长放缓

In the past, BTC hit the upward channel of a large cycle. It usually hit a stop and then started to rise. This was also a correction of a relatively large cycle. However, this time it hit the upward channel of two large cycles in a short period of time. However, it broke through the mid-term from 10 The channel has been rising since the beginning of the month, but this wave of selling has also hit the upward trend line of the larger cycle, which is consistent with the line connecting the lows of the previous period. The washout before this round of bull market is indeed more difficult! Observe the closing price in the next few days. Case!
$BTC #美国7月非农就业增长放缓

The trend of BTC in the past period of time was basically leading the risk market. What does that mean? In the past, BTC usually played a leading role in the risk market, that is, BTC would lead the US stock market and start to lead the decline. Therefore, I think the previous decline was a sign of the decline before the interest rate cut. The correction led the way. However, the non-farm payroll data has always been an important data for interest rate cuts. However, the release of the non-farm payroll data has caused the market to worry about recession. In fact, I think it is just a correction that the US stock market has risen too high. However, BTC has corrected sharply again, which is indeed unexpected. I was not expecting it, but the technique of the board and the time of the lead are all at the time when Asia gradually goes to sleep, which is generally from 11 pm to 4-5 midnight, which is similar to the previous wave of the National Day of the United States from 7/4-7/5. The methods of smashing during the holidays are exactly the same and the timeline is the same.

BTC was bullish after stepping back on the large upward trend line yesterday. Against the background of the decline in US stocks today, BTC followed the trend of panic and made a false breakout in the 4-hour time zone. The 4-hour K bar in the early morning directly returned to the false breakout, forming a short-selling trend. , the trend at the relatively large time zone level forms a technical breaking trend, triggering the entry of short-chasing positions.
It is currently reversing the previous downtrend structure and continues to be bullish after the consolidation!
$BTC #超级央行周

BTC leaked downward yesterday and stepped back on the downward trend line. After today's interest rate meeting, it stepped back on the large upward trend channel to the next level. The washout slightly exceeded expectations, but the market outlook structure has not been damaged and is still bullish!
$BTC #超级央行周

BTC fell as expected and fell back to the previous downward trend line (blue),
After sorting out the shock, we will challenge the 70,000 level again. This time the probability of breakthrough is high. The overall follow-up is bullish!

$BTC #美国政府转移BTC

Yesterday, BTC mentioned that it needs to pull back in the short-term and accumulate in the upward trend, but it did not consolidate enough and went straight up to 70,000 and was blocked, so it may do a deeper consolidation and accumulate 65000-66000 (orange path). 70,000 is The recent psychological hurdles, coupled with the large number of previous hold-ups, require more time to break through. The overall long-term cycle is still optimistic!

$BTC #比特币大会

Yesterday, Trump's speech about BTC met expectations for BTC. It will have the opportunity to be used as a national reserve in the future. Of course, it may also be an election slogan, but it is not a bad thing to have positive expectations in the short term!
During the speech, BTC fluctuated violently. After breaking through the box-shaped shock range, it was suppressed and returned to the box. In the short term, there was a pullback and consolidation and accumulation stage. If it broke through the box again, the market outlook is still promising!

$BTC #比特币大会

Despite relatively low liquidity over the weekend, BTC still continues to push up and currently breaks through the box range (purple). It will then test the downward trend line (pink) connecting the previous high points. We will see the supply situation at that time. There is a probability of breaking through the 70,000 level five times!

$BTC #比特币大会

BTC rebounded after stepping back from the first expected white arrow trend yesterday. Today, funds have a relay to break through the downward trend line (blue) connecting the previous high points. The overall situation is now near the previous high to see if it can break through, or Will it stand firm after pulling back the downward trend line?
$BTC #比特币大会

The current trend of BTC is in line with the prediction. It has fallen to the first point (white arrow), that is, after the upward trend line of a relatively large period. There are signs of funds entering the market to buy bottoms, but it depends on whether it can continue to push the market and whether it can stand firm. Daily KMA (9) 65000, otherwise you have to take the orange arrow route below!
$BTC

BTC
From the perspective of the four-hour time zone structure, the overall trend is more like a wide purple box-shaped interval with mainly oscillations. If the retracement is relatively shallow, it will touch the upward trend line (blue) of the large time zone around 63700 and then return to the upward trend.
If the correction is relatively large, as pointed by the yellow arrow, it will retrace the trend line of the previous downward structure around 62,000 and then return to the upward trend. After the overall sharp rise, it needs to be sorted out before continuing to rise.

$BTC #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易

ETH's four-hour view shows that the fund flow of ETFs that have been listed is not bad, and the market fluctuations are suppressed by the falling line (pink) in the short time zone!

$ETH #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易