白泽之光

Moving average technology is the most familiar to everyone, but there are very few people who can truly understand and apply moving average correctly. Don't look at the moving average trading techniques in the bookstores, but they are just a dictionary that you can learn by casually looking at them, and you will die as soon as you use them. Why does this happen? It's because the person who wrote the book either doesn't understand moving averages or deliberately doesn't write down the key points. People who really make money continuously will not easily write good things in books for others to read. The following aspects of the moving average are very important. 1. Average convergence degree: This does not mean that a few moving averages are close to each other. It is not like this. It needs to be like 4, 6, and 12 hour moving averages. 5 and 10 lines are all very close together and show a smooth state. Multi-level The moving averages must have the same direction. It cannot be that the 5th line is downward and the 10th line is upward. Multi-level moving average resonance is an important feature of moving average aggregation. 2. Moving average angle: When the moving average convergence is met, the angle will become very important. Theoretically, the larger the angle, the stronger the short-term market will be. 3. Moving average deviation: When the convergence and angle conditions are met, the market will often have an obvious upward or downward trend. Then the problem comes. When the 4- and 6-hour market develops well, if the weekly line deviates too far, it means that the 4- and 6-hour market will not last long. 4. Multi-period resonance: When the above three conditions are met, the market is actually already very strong. At this time, a pre-judgment question will arise, that is, how long can the market go and whether it has come to an end. What we are talking about here is the resonance relationship between large and small weeks. When there is a perfect market at the 4 or 6-hour level, but the weekly moving average does not have a long moving average arrangement, it means that this wave of market is at least not at the weekly level, and it is very likely that the market will end in a few days. If the weekly moving average can keep up at this time and is also clearly arranged in a long position, then this market may be able to run for a few weeks. If even the monthly level is bullish, congratulations, it is a bull market now. There is a crucial point in the effectiveness of the moving average: that is, the multi-level moving average resonates and rises with an angle. The greater the level of resonance, the greater the market trend. Moving averages without resonant moving averages generally have extremely limited effectiveness.It is often inaccurate. At this time, if you use the moving average as an indicator, you are courting death. In fact, when the moving average is inaccurate, other indicators are basically inaccurate.

Before talking about trading models, we need to talk about waves first. We all know that the sea has countless waves every day. The so-called waves are three feet without wind. The same goes for market conditions. Every day there are market conditions like countless small waves, which are impossible to count. The situation of three-foot waves without wind changes too quickly and in a small range, so it is impossible to predict and has no predictive value. So the countless market fluctuations every day are the same. Whenever you look at CCTV's weather forecast, you will find that CCTV's forecasts of typhoons every year are extremely accurate, and even the route levels can be calculated. The same goes for our trading. We should do this kind of regular big market level and don't do three-foot waves. Let’s talk about why you can’t do three-foot waves without wind. You must wait for strong market trends. If you want to do a good job in trading, you must achieve a large profit-loss ratio. To do this well, you have to lose less and earn more. When there is a windless three-foot wave, you will get several characteristics: 1. When it is a windless three-foot wave, your winning rate is estimated to be less than half. 2. Then you will earn 10 yuan and lose 8 yuan. Lose one and earn one, and the cycle continues and eventually you lose more and more. 3. Because the wave is small, it is easy to end, and the upward trend is short-lived. The failure rate of deducing future trends is as high as 80%. When it is a huge wave, you will get several advantages: 1. Stop loss when it fails, there is a limit. When the order is successful, the profit will continue to rise. 2. After doing it several times in a row, the principal will quickly increase. 3. During huge waves, the market will rise with obvious regularity. At this time, your success rate in deducing the future rise is as high as 80%. What is a good trading model? It is actually very simple and everyone often sees it. The simplest one is the resonant rise or fall of multi-level moving averages. The higher the level, the bigger the space. 1. Look at the chart below. The monthly, weekly, and daily moving averages are all rising. This situation is what everyone often calls a bull market. 2. If there is no trend at the monthly level and only a trend at the weekly level, then the market may last for a few weeks, but it will never last for 2 months, usually at most one month. 3. If there is no trend at the weekly level and only a trend at the daily level, then the market may last for 1-2 weeks at most and then end. 4. This is the relationship between market levels.