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Is the bear market over?
After the rebound that started in February 2023 brought Bitcoin from 15,000 to 30,000 dollars, the market began to cool down. Since last year, it has been calling attention to macro risks. Mr. Satsuma’s face felt a little pain when his short position was flat.
Looking at A16Z’s Crypto Index, after experiencing a rebound in February, the index has now returned to the bearish level of 15,000-17,000 for Bitcoin from September to November last year.
Looking at the stablecoin supply, it has continued to flow out slowly in the past few months.
The statistical caliber of stablecoins.wtf was around $127B in June
The statistical caliber after filtering by Defillama was around $124B in June
Looking at A16Z’s Crypto Index, after experiencing a rebound in February, the index has now returned to the bearish level of 15,000-17,000 for Bitcoin from September to November last year.
Looking at the stablecoin supply, it has continued to flow out slowly in the past few months.
The statistical caliber of stablecoins.wtf was around $127B in June
The statistical caliber after filtering by Defillama was around $124B in June
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Today, let’s first look at the old tune of the inversion of long-term and short-term U.S. bond interest rates:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
We knew that problems were likely to arise after the inversion ended and returned to normal, but we did not expect that this time it would be the deepest and longest inversion in more than 40 years. Since the inversion is not over, the drama will only continue to be postponed. The U.S. stock market has never collapsed at the end of an interest rate hike. They have all collapsed during the maintenance phase after the interest rate hike ends. The interest rate hike is not over yet, and there will be at least one more increase in the year. Moreover, the plateau period of maintaining high interest rates will be very long. I don’t know. For those who say that a soft landing and recession will not come, how confident are they that the risk market can hold on during this long period of high interest rate plateau?
#TheBearMarketisEnded?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
We knew that problems were likely to arise after the inversion ended and returned to normal, but we did not expect that this time it would be the deepest and longest inversion in more than 40 years. Since the inversion is not over, the drama will only continue to be postponed. The U.S. stock market has never collapsed at the end of an interest rate hike. They have all collapsed during the maintenance phase after the interest rate hike ends. The interest rate hike is not over yet, and there will be at least one more increase in the year. Moreover, the plateau period of maintaining high interest rates will be very long. I don’t know. For those who say that a soft landing and recession will not come, how confident are they that the risk market can hold on during this long period of high interest rate plateau?
#TheBearMarketisEnded?
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Speaking of lying flat, last year, looking at the macro risks, he chose to go short and flat, and how about Mr. Satsuma, who said that a recession was bound to come? Even though I have cried wolf so many times and it still hasn’t come, I still have to speak harshly while covering my red and swollen face. Teacher Satsuma looks at more than a dozen indicators every day, and the conclusion of the provincial version is... Macro risks are still accumulating, and the situation that prompted me to lie down has not changed significantly. Since the reasons remain unchanged, the decision should also be made (in the midst of suffering) Keep at it.
#macro
#macro
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