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Ethereum Holds at $2,500 Amid Volatility

On Tuesday, the price of Ethereum hovered around $2,520 due to ongoing selling from recent buyers and long-term holders. As the price approached the key resistance level of $2,500, signs of overheating began to appear in the market. Trading volume surged, primarily driven by profit-taking, leading to increased volatility and a brief spike in futures liquidation.

The average coin age (a metric that measures the time ETH stays in wallets) has decreased, reflecting a trend of investors continuously selling their tokens. Recent futures data charts show that trading activity has increased over the past day, with a higher number of liquidation orders, resulting in $71.83 million worth of assets being liquidated.

Despite these pressures, Ethereum's price remains stable. The buying volume from whales and institutional investors is comparable to that of small holders. Notably, BTCS, listed on Nasdaq, disclosed that it has purchased 3,450 ETH, while Abraxas Capital has increased its holdings to over 350,000 ETH since early May. On-chain data indicates that despite recent profit-taking by retail investors, these trades have helped stabilize the price.

Correlation of Risk Assets at Low Levels

Recent chart data shows that the RTY/SPX (comparison of high-risk stocks to the U.S. market), copper/gold, and Ethereum/Bitcoin trading pairs are all at long-term support levels. These areas previously signaled volatility during trend reversals or accelerations. The fact that multiple assets are reaching this level suggests that the overall economy is impacting the market.

Market analysts, including ShayanMarkets from CryptoQuant, believe there is a significant amount of historical buying activity around these areas. Additionally, data from IntotheBlock indicates that during this period, ETH purchases exceeded 70 million, suggesting strong market interest in maintaining upward price momentum. If prices fall below these levels, investors may react to unrealized losses, triggering greater volatility.

Currently, the RTY/SPX ratio has reached levels seen in 2020 when there were significant changes in market risk. The copper/gold ratio, which tracks the difference between cyclical and defensive assets, is near its lowest level in years. The trading price of Ethereum/Bitcoin is at the bottom of a multi-year range, indicating that Ethereum is underperforming compared to other cryptocurrencies.

BTC has broken a new high. It has broken a new high. The next step is 150,000

Bitcoin has surpassed 110,000 US dollars per coin, approximately 800,000 Chinese yuan per coin. The total market value of cryptocurrencies is 3.45 trillion US dollars, with Bitcoin accounting for 63% of the market value, approximately 2.17 trillion US dollars. Bitcoin will always remain the king.

Is it 150,000 dollars or 200,000 dollars next?

Although it only took a little over four months, Bitcoin has accomplished what many thought was impossible. Just 45 days ago, its price fell below 75,000 dollars, crashing from the historical high of over 109,000 dollars set in January. In the following hours, it struggled to bounce back to 106,000 dollars, but the bulls regained control and pushed the flight to nearly 112,000 dollars, which is the current peak.

This puts the asset into price discovery mode, meaning the following points: 1) All investors are taking profits; 2) There is no historical resistance ahead. Therefore, many well-known analysts have taken this opportunity to outline the next price targets, among them is Ali Martinez. His most optimistic prediction is that BTC will soar to nearly 150,000 dollars.

Bitcoin Cycle Top Markers

Multiple technical and on-chain indicators, such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, Pi Cycle Top, and volume trends, have historically been able to reliably predict when Bitcoin is approaching its peak.

The MVRV-Z score compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value and adjusts for volatility. A higher Z-score indicates that Bitcoin is significantly overvalued relative to its historical cost basis. When this indicator is at a historical high, the price of Bitcoin is likely to decline.

The Pi Cycle Top uses moving averages to track BTC price dynamics. When the 111-day simple moving average (111-SMA) crosses above twice the 350-day moving average (350-SMAx2), it indicates that the market is overheated. In other words, when the short-term trend catches up with the long-term trajectory, a market top is formed.

Historically, all previous Bitcoin bull markets have begun with a significant surge in MVRV Z-score and ended with the 111-SMA crossing the long-term trend line.

Additionally, a decline in volume during price increases may serve as a warning sign, often indicating a potential weakening of momentum and reversal. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) records cumulative trading volume and is a critical indicator for tracking this process. When OBV diverges from price trends, it typically signals an early reversal.

The second phase of the 2021 bull market is a great example. Despite BTC price reaching a high of $68,000 (compared to the previous historical high of $63,170), the trading volume moved in the opposite direction, dropping from 710,000 BTC to 628,000 BTC. This created a bearish divergence between price and volume, indicating a reduction in market participants supporting the rise—typical signs of weakening momentum.

Early this morning, according to OKX market data, the price of BTC once broke through 110,000 US dollars, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 3%. This also means that Bitcoin has lived up to expectations, setting a historical new high for BTC prices after 4 months.

Meanwhile, Ethereum once broke through 2,600 US dollars, currently reported at 2,580 US dollars, with a 24-hour increase of 5.04%; SOL broke through 175 US dollars, currently reported at 174.8 US dollars, with a 24-hour increase of 3.60%.

According to the latest data from 8 MarketCap, Bitcoin's market value has returned above 2.1 trillion US dollars, currently reaching 2.166 trillion US dollars, surpassing e-commerce giant Amazon, and rising to fifth place in the global asset market value ranking.

In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of 402 million US dollars, including 189 million US dollars in long liquidations and 213 million US dollars in short liquidations. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC had liquidations of 147 million US dollars, and ETH had liquidations of 111 million US dollars.

In the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has risen by about 3%, breaking the historical high of $109,458 reached earlier in the day, marking its first time exceeding the long-held peak of January 20.

As the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has increased by 17.5% year-to-date, and since dropping to $75,000 on April 7 due to U.S. President Donald Trump's implementation of comprehensive tariffs that caused a global market crash, it has risen by 47%.

Bitcoin's new peak coincides with turbulence in the U.S. stock market due to weak 20-year bond auctions, with Treasury yields soaring on May 21. The S&P 500 index dropped 80 points within half an hour, and the Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices showed similar trends, with all major U.S. indices trending downward on that day.

Bullish momentum heads towards $110,000 and above

As the market continues to rise, crypto trader Titan states that a price target of $135,000 for Bitcoin by 2025 is still entirely feasible. This prediction is based on an analysis of price trends over the past two years, focusing on support and resistance zones over a large time frame, using Fibonacci extension tools to identify potential price target areas.

On the chart, the 1.618 Fibonacci level (from the bottom to the recent wave top) currently lies in the $135,000 to $140,000 range, which reinforces the argument that the upward trend may continue.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt also noted the new highs for BTC, but he pointed out that such milestones often lack significant technical value in the context of a bull market.

Bull markets always set new highs—that's the nature of the market. Can the price of Bitcoin reach $125,000 to $150,000 by the end of August?

From a bolder perspective, technical expert Gert van Lagen expects Bitcoin to reach the range of $300,000 to $320,000. In a recent post on the X platform, he stated that BTC has broken out of a bullish amplifier pattern that has lasted for four years, characterized by diverging trend lines, with higher highs and lower lows—indicating that once the aforementioned resistance level is breached, a strong bullish cycle may be imminent.

According to Elliott Wave Theory, van Lagen believes that Bitcoin is currently in the final wave 5 of the impulse wave cycle, which means there is potential for the price to rise further by 170% to 190% in the near future.

The target for Bitcoin bulls is to break the price of $110,000

Due to the strong momentum of BTC, cryptocurrency trader Titan of Crypto points out that the price target for Bitcoin in 2025 remains $135,000. This prediction uses Fibonacci extension tools to track Bitcoin's returns against key high timeframe resistance and support levels over the past two years, determining price targets by measuring previous price fluctuations.

The 1.618 Fibonacci level extends from the low of the fluctuation to the high of the fluctuation, aligning with the potential target of $135,000 to $140,000.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt acknowledges Bitcoin's new highs, but he notes that such milestones are "technically not important" during a bull market. This trader states,

"Bull markets always set new historical highs. That’s the definition of a bull market. By the end of August, the price may break $125,000 to $150,000???"

In contrast, the price levels set by technical analyst Gert van Lagen are much higher, between $300,000 and $320,000. In a recent post on X, van Lagen noted that Bitcoin has broken out of a bullish 'megaphone' pattern that has persisted for four years, marked by trendline divergence, consistently higher highs, and consistently lower lows, indicating a significant rise may occur after breaking above resistance levels.

Analysts using Elliott Wave Theory indicate that BTC is in the final wave of the impulse cycle, supporting a bullish view of Bitcoin rising again by 170% to 190%.

Although the market is gradually heading toward prosperity, Alphractal CEO João Wedson advises investors to remain cautious and patient. This analyst points out that the BTC heatmap shows prices are moving toward high leverage areas, indicating that market makers may target overconfident traders for liquidation.

Wedson emphasizes that the public's obsession with historical highs may trap both bulls and bears. Therefore, it is crucial to "always manage risk."

Ethereum is undoubtedly struggling. Since December 2024, whenever market sentiment shifts leading to an overall decline in the cryptocurrency market, only Bitcoin has been able to bounce back to previous price levels and break through, while Ethereum has almost been unable to return to its original point after a drop.

Here is Ethereum's market performance over the past few months. In November 2024, the market was in an upward phase, with Bitcoin priced at approximately $96,405 and Ethereum at $3,703. On December 1, 2024, the market experienced a slight decline, with Bitcoin dropping to $93,557 and Ethereum falling to $3,337. Although both top cryptocurrencies reached significant price levels later that month, they failed to maintain the upward momentum and fell again.

About a month later, on January 1, 2025, Bitcoin's price was $94,500, slightly higher than the previous month, while Ethereum further declined to $3,298. By February 1, the price data showed Bitcoin significantly dropping to $84,381 and Ethereum falling to $2,236. Bitcoin reached $102,000 later that month, but Ethereum failed to bounce back to its previous highs. In fact, when Bitcoin recovered from $84,381 in February to $94,304 in April, Ethereum continued to decline and could not re-test its prior highs. In reality, the BTC/ETH ratio has widened.

Dogecoin Price Prediction: DOGE Forms Bullish Flag Pattern, Expected to Surge to $0.35
Recently, the retracement of DOGE has drawn a flag consolidation pattern on the chart. This pattern typically appears after a strong upward movement, indicating that the market is undergoing consolidation and accumulation, and after a brief rest, it is expected to continue rising.

Once the price breaks through the upper edge of the flag, successfully standing above the key resistance level of $0.24, this bullish pattern will be confirmed, opening up space for further exploration towards $0.35.

If this breakout is accompanied by an increase in volume, it will confirm that DOGE continues its bullish trend, with a potential surge to $0.35 in the short term.

This bullish flag further confirms that the whale's reduction of positions may just be a bull trap, providing off-market funds with a more cost-effective entry point, which is more favorable compared to the highs from a week ago.

Key support to watch on the downside is the $0.18 range, which was the second-high point in the previous upward wave. If the price receives technical support here and rebounds, it will validate that the current bullish structure remains strong, and the main upward wave still has momentum.

If the current market momentum continues, coupled with the enhanced practicality of Dogecoin in payment and ecological scenarios, as well as the strong community consensus behind it, the goal of DOGE reaching $1 will no longer be a “meme,” but rather a realistic medium to long-term expectation.

At the same time, as the meme coin sector makes a comeback, emerging crypto presale projects like SUBBD (SUBBD) are also receiving high attention from investors, as they possess greater potential for multiples and are seen as explosive potential coins in the next wave of the bull market.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has decreased by 3% over the past week, currently trading at $0.2205. Previously, as the meme coin craze cooled down, DOGE ended days of strong gains and above-average trading volume.

In the past 24 hours, DOGE's on-chain transaction volume reached $1.8 billion, but compared to the previous day's trading volume, it decreased by 37%, indicating a decline in market activity.

This may suggest that short-selling momentum is weakening, paving the way for a bullish trend in DOGE's price in the short term, supporting a potential rebound.

On-chain data from Santiment shows that Dogecoin whales have reduced their holdings by 170 million tokens in the past few days, cashing out over $40 million, which has put significant selling pressure on this leading meme coin.

However, this may just be a normal profit-taking operation, part of a pullback after a strong price surge. From a technical perspective, DOGE's daily chart has entered the overbought territory, and this wave of whale selling could actually help the market to adjust healthily, preparing for the next round of upward movement.

The price of Ethereum's Ether (ETH) may soon soar, as traders are betting through a bullish call spread that the asset will reach $6,000 this year. The valuation of ETH has plummeted from $4,000 in December 2024, but has started a strong rebound since May this year. As of the time of writing, the Ethereum token has risen 57% in just the past 30 days. Traders are betting that the asset will continue to rise throughout the summer and hit new highs before the end of the year.

Last week, large traders (typically institutions and high-net-worth investors) executed a bullish options spread trade on Ether. Traders selected a call option at $3,500 while shorting an equal amount of call options with a strike price of $6,000.

These bets will expire on December 26, meaning Ethereum must reach that price before then to gain rewards. Traders executed this strategy through the over-the-counter trading platform Paradigm, which was later listed on the cryptocurrency exchange Deribit. Traders executed 30,000 contracts of the $3,500/$6,000 call options spread in 10 separate trades, with an initial liability/cost slightly above $7 million.

Undeniably, the cryptocurrency market has rebounded significantly this week. After months of stagnation, changes in the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape have brought some optimism. Ethereum and Bitcoin led the rebound, with most analysts believing that the upward trend is not yet over.

Is it too early for the altcoin season?

Ethereum's performance has surpassed Bitcoin, driving ETH/BTC up 34% within a week, marking the first significant breakthrough since December 2024. This has sparked discussions about the altcoin season. However, key indicators show that the altcoin season has not yet arrived.

In 2022, Ethereum skyrocketed by 121% in just over a month, triggering the altcoin season. At that time, 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies outperformed Bitcoin, with the altcoin season index reaching 96 points. However, currently, the altcoin season index is only 25 points, with only 18% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies outperforming Bitcoin.

It may still be a few weeks away from a full altcoin breakout, but there is currently no conclusion. Bitcoin's dominance has dropped to 63%.

BTC Reaches Key Level, Altcoin Season Approaching

Arthur Hayes predicts that the altcoin market will only enter its peak season if Bitcoin breaks above $110,000. Once this level is surpassed, Bitcoin may rebound to between $150,000 and $200,000 in the summer, and profits are likely to quickly flow into altcoins.

He expects that the size of the altcoin market in 2025 will be smaller than in 2021, and points out that many old coins with high FDV and low demand may not be able to rebound.

How did altcoins perform?

In the span of five days, altcoins surged dramatically. The decline in Bitcoin's dominance and the rapid rise of TOTAL2 prove this, and we will explore it further below. BTC.D tested the resistance level around 62% in February and March, and strongly broke through this area in April.

After reaching a local high of 65.38%, BTC.D temporarily fell to 61.89%. The decline in BTC.D indicates that the market capitalization growth rate of altcoins has surpassed that of BTC.

However, in the past five days, Bitcoin's dominance has recovered — indicating that a comprehensive altcoin season has not yet arrived.

Apart from Bitcoin, the market capitalization of altcoins has once again tested the significant threshold of $1.17 trillion. Like BTC.D, TOTAL2 can also be subjected to technical analysis. In fact, we can see that the market capitalization of altcoins is on an upward trend but encountered strong resistance near the February high.

A move above $1.31 trillion would encourage altcoin investors.

However, Tether's reserve indicators have raised warning signals. As the most popular stablecoin in the market, an increase in USDT reserves indicates an increase in market purchasing power. In other words, this would be accompanied by a strong bullish market trend.

Since mid-March, Tether's reserves have been decreasing. This reflects a decline in purchasing power, while at that time, BTC's price was nearing an all-time high. The last time Tether reserves experienced such a significant decline was in June to July 2024.

In just over a month, the market capitalization of altcoins has shrunk by $275 billion, a decline of 23.5%. From February to April, the market capitalization of altcoins has dropped by 30%. Additionally, it remains unclear whether Tether reserves will continue to decline — this is an interesting factor worth monitoring.

The price of Bitcoin has reached an all-time high weekly closing price, surpassing $107,000, paving the way for new highs. Meanwhile, short sellers have intensified their actions, causing the price to fall below the opening range of the previous day, raising concerns about future price trends. On the other hand, the liquidity range of BTC has entered a critical phase, and the fierce conflict between bulls and bears may be seen as a means to compete for dominance in the coming days.

Since the price of BTC rebounded from a local low, both whales and bulls seem to have become more optimistic. As a result, more bullish traders have been given significant leverage. This has led retail investors to become bullish on Bitcoin, which strongly pushed up the price of BTC, almost reaching its peak. Worryingly, these whales have begun to take profits, which seems to be the main reason for the current decline in BTC.