Mike小麦

The data from the Planet Daily shows that the total contract position of Bitcoin has reached 74.557 billion USD, setting a new historical high.

If all goes as expected, a dramatic showdown between bulls and bears is about to unfold.

Bitcoin has just surged to 109,400, with the bears becoming the first to be used as fuel. Next, Bitcoin is expected to have some actions to entice the bulls, followed by a significant pullback to wipe out the bullish positions. $BTC

In secondary contracts, there is always only one true winner, and that is the market maker.

They are exceptionally skilled at profiting from human nature.

In theory, in the same market conditions, with the same margin and leverage, if two people take opposite positions, one of them should always make a profit.

But in reality, both of these individuals are likely to lose money.

The main reason for this situation is the manipulation by a third party, namely the market maker.

They manipulate not only the market but more importantly, human nature—when in profit, they want to earn more; when in loss, they fear liquidation and can only endure the pain of cutting losses.

Our greed and fear become the most important tools for the market makers to make money.

Therefore, our true opponent is not the person taking the opposite position, but the market maker, and even more so, ourselves.

Having played contracts for a long time, one thing has deeply resonated with me.

The awareness required for trading is not necessarily about judging news or precise technical analysis; compared to "knowing when to stop," the former is just icing on the cake.

When in profit, one should run if necessary, securing gains and not feeling regret for missing out on further profits; when in loss, if one firmly believes in their judgment, then they should bear it within their means until the situation turns around.

But while it sounds easy to say, achieving it is as difficult as climbing to the sky.

If everyone had this awareness and could achieve unity of knowledge and action, the exchanges would have long gone bankrupt, and there would be no market makers left.

$ETH In the coming time, ETH may experience a significant surge for two reasons.

First, the trends of mainstream coins are generally similar, but ETH is clearly out of sync right now and needs a corrective rise to catch up with BTC and SOL.

Second, after experiencing eight consecutive weeks of net outflows, the ETH spot ETF finally welcomed a net inflow of $157 million last week.

This is a positive signal and also indicates that market expectations are starting to show regarding the Ethereum upgrade on May 7.

This upgrade may become an opportunity for ETH to rise again.

Unfortunately, I still have two days until payday. Otherwise, ETH, please don’t rise in these two days; a slight drop would be even better. $ETH

$XRP Today, the SEC approved the ETF for XPR, which will officially launch at the end of this month.

Many friends heard the news and immediately opened long positions, only to find themselves caught in a downturn, with everyone exclaiming that the good news has already been priced in.

For this, I can only advise you not to be impatient.

XPR has achieved a 7.32% increase in about a week, and I believe the main reason for its rise is not the market expectations from the ETF, but rather the influence of this bull market, and nothing more.

In other words, the benefits of XPR from the ETF have not fully materialized yet.

Referring to BTC's performance through the ETF, it first dropped from over $40,000 to over $30,000, and then slowly rose until reaching $100,000.

The best is yet to come, so why are you in such a hurry?

#Strategy增持比特币
In the past, the trends of mainstream coins were generally similar.

Now it's different, ETH is gradually deviating from the track and moving further away from BTC.

By the way, I must say, BTC is really solid, it has become stagnant.
$BTC

$OM
From the 16th until today, OM has dropped nearly 30% from its peak, putting on a farce of crashing down and then crashing down again.

Unfortunately, I didn't have the capital to operate at that time.

For project parties that are suspected of having a bad track record, one must remain vigilant about the so-called 'good news' they release, and it is even possible to go against it completely.

If they entice with bullish sentiment, I will look for opportunities to short.

There are two reasons for this:

1. An increase is inevitable, but it won't last long.

This crash by OM will undoubtedly lead to a crisis of trust, resulting in a panic sell-off of a certain scale that is unavoidable.

Moreover, most people currently view virtual currency merely as a tool for arbitrage; they are satisfied with a quick profit from the good news and leave, with very few willing to act as diamond hands.

This is a tacit understanding and consensus formed slowly by most individuals after enduring various hardships, without needing to establish connections.

Therefore, the good news released by the OM project party will certainly attract many people to enter the market, thus pushing up the coin price.

However, people have already lost trust in them, and everyone suspects the project party will conduct a second harvesting behind the scenes, which means its upward momentum will not last long; it will quickly turn from rise to fall, becoming the domain of the bears.

2. The project party's promises seem too hypocritical.

The project party is not a charity; they are here to make money, not to give it away.

When they publish articles stating they will buy back tokens, it's equivalent to telling everyone that they are going to pump the price.

Those who believe the project party's pump are just as naive as those who enter community building, hoping that KOLs will pump the price.

The project party is clearly in the driver's seat; how could they possibly lift the sedan chair?

When they claim they will burn all team tokens, it's like cutting down the supply while giving people a reassurance - the sell-off event you are worried about will not happen again.

This seems even more unrealistic, even against human nature.

No one complains about making too much money, and no one wants to watch the meat handed to them fly away.

Therefore, the OM project party is very hypocritical. The promises they make are too far-fetched, making one suspect that they have ulterior motives.

To put it bluntly, the various good news released by the project party now, as well as the various remedial statements regarding the previous crash, are all for the convenience of better unloading and crashing in the future.

The unlocking of OM tokens is imminent; its decline has just begun.