#比特币与美国关税政策 Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has been very active, and it feels like the whole world is waiting for him. Currently, the global market is not doing well, and everyone is waiting for policies and market rescue. However, he said that Trump is unpredictable and not to expect too much from him. 周六50U拼手气红包🧧 Transmission
There are significant price differences in spot markets across different exchanges, how to arbitrage?
Taking $WCT as an example from yesterday afternoon!
The core of this arbitrage is to profit from the price difference.
This time, there are three prices: BN spot, BN contract, and a certain X spot. We need to compare whether there is a price difference between different prices and then consider arbitrage strategies.
We can create three scenarios:
1) When the BN spot price is higher than the BN contract price, can we arbitrage? 2) When the BN spot price is higher than the certain X spot price, can we arbitrage? 3) When the BN contract is nearly equal to the certain X spot price, we cannot arbitrage. ______________________
Arbitrage Strategies:
There are only two actual situations where price differences occur, so let's think about the arbitrage strategies respectively.
1) When there is a price difference between spot and contract, we can only wait for the market to automatically correct itself, and there is basically no arbitrage space.
However, there are four possible scenarios:
1. Spot rises, leading the contract price to continue rising, continue waiting for the prices to level out. 2. Spot does not rise, contract price rises, prices level out. 3. Spot falls to the contract price, after leveling out, both spot and contract prices fall together.
At this point, it's pure gambling, with a probability of 66.66% that buying spot won't incur a loss, but this does not count as arbitrage. ______________________
2) When the BN spot price is higher than the certain X spot price, the underlying logic of arbitrage is to sell high and buy low! Actual corresponding operation:
1. First, sell the BN spot, then buy the certain X spot, a single operation can increase the cryptocurrency base;
In a loop, cash out the certain X spot purchased and sell it in BN, finally selling can significantly increase the USD base, and not selling can also significantly increase the cryptocurrency base.
However, this strategy requires having WCT tokens in advance.
2. First, buy the certain X spot, then sell the BN spot, allowing the USD base to appreciate through the price difference; In a loop, cash out the USD obtained from selling BN to buy certain X spot, then cash out the spot to sell in BN, ultimately achieving significant appreciation in the USD base.
This strategy only requires assets other than WCT, suitable for most friends.
April 16 PEPE Entry 0.007064 Highest 0.0073 3.34% BTC Entry 83370 Highest 85000 1.96% SOL Entry 124.9 Highest 133.88 7.19% Space Brother's Binance Exclusive Link to Learn More 🎈币安反佣
The Federal Reserve, coldly extinguished the world's hopes
As global investors anticipated a market rescue, the Federal Reserve threw a bucket of cold water. Fed Chairman Powell stated that he would wait for the situation to become clearer before considering adjustments to the policy stance.
Powell's remarks came at a time when the U.S. stock market was falling, and what was poured onto the market was not just a 'bucket of cold water,' but even a 'bucket of ice water':
1. It was originally thought that he would take action to rescue the market because his colleagues had changed their stance the day before to 'support earlier and larger rate cuts than previously expected.' This gave the market hope, and letting that hope shatter is the most frightening thing; it would have been better not to schedule this speech.
2. Between 'the economy' and 'inflation,' Powell chose the latter. Powell said that, to some extent, the Federal Reserve's issue is like a soccer goalkeeper responding to an opponent's penalty kick. One must decide whether to dive right, focusing on inflation, or dive left, focusing on slowing growth. Powell also mentioned that tariffs might have a more lasting impact on inflation and could at least bring about temporary inflation. It is necessary to ensure that rising prices do not lead to persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve has an obligation to keep inflation expectations stable. It is clear that Powell decided to prioritize 'diving right.'
3. When asked whether there was a 'Fed put option' in the stock market, his answer was 'no.' Do not expect the Federal Reserve to bail out the market.
4. Powell also articulated the concerns that the market has always had—that tariffs could lead to slower economic growth and more stubborn inflation—and this statement from the Fed Chair confirmed all these facts.
5. The reason the Federal Reserve chose not to save the market is not that they 'do not want to,' but rather that they 'cannot,' lacking the flexibility to respond because Trump's tariffs exceeded the Fed's previous highest estimates. They fundamentally cannot cut rates when inflation is rising, considering that inflation rates are already high, and during this period, the risk of inflation expectations getting out of control is a very real danger.
Powell concluded his speech with a quote from the movie 'Spring Is Not the Season for Reading': 'Life goes by quickly...'
The Federal Reserve, coldly extinguished the world's hopes
As global investors anticipated a market rescue, the Federal Reserve threw a bucket of cold water. Fed Chairman Powell stated that he would wait for the situation to become clearer before considering adjustments to the policy stance.
Powell's remarks came at a time when the U.S. stock market was falling, and what was poured onto the market was not just a 'bucket of cold water,' but even a 'bucket of ice water':
1. It was originally thought that he would take action to rescue the market because his colleagues had changed their stance the day before to 'support earlier and larger rate cuts than previously expected.' This gave the market hope, and letting that hope shatter is the most frightening thing; it would have been better not to schedule this speech.
2. Between 'the economy' and 'inflation,' Powell chose the latter. Powell said that, to some extent, the Federal Reserve's issue is like a soccer goalkeeper responding to an opponent's penalty kick. One must decide whether to dive right, focusing on inflation, or dive left, focusing on slowing growth. Powell also mentioned that tariffs might have a more lasting impact on inflation and could at least bring about temporary inflation. It is necessary to ensure that rising prices do not lead to persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve has an obligation to keep inflation expectations stable. It is clear that Powell decided to prioritize 'diving right.'
3. When asked whether there was a 'Fed put option' in the stock market, his answer was 'no.' Do not expect the Federal Reserve to bail out the market.
4. Powell also articulated the concerns that the market has always had—that tariffs could lead to slower economic growth and more stubborn inflation—and this statement from the Fed Chair confirmed all these facts.
5. The reason the Federal Reserve chose not to save the market is not that they 'do not want to,' but rather that they 'cannot,' lacking the flexibility to respond because Trump's tariffs exceeded the Fed's previous highest estimates. They fundamentally cannot cut rates when inflation is rising, considering that inflation rates are already high, and during this period, the risk of inflation expectations getting out of control is a very real danger.
Powell concluded his speech with a quote from the movie 'Spring Is Not the Season for Reading': 'Life goes by quickly...'
The Wave of Digital Assets is Coming: Precise Insights into Wealth Opportunities
In the vast ocean of digital assets, volatility and opportunities intertwine, with each moment breeding infinite possibilities. Recently, Bitcoin (BTC) has become the market focus, with prices fiercely oscillating between the 83000 and 86000 range, making the key price level of 86000 a battleground for bulls and bears. Looking back at the last U.S. stock market crash, Bitcoin, despite holding firm for a brief period, ultimately could not escape the fate of a price correction, highlighting the profound impact of market sentiment and external factors on digital assets. However, investors should remember that patience is the key to navigating volatility. Bitcoin has tested support near 83000 three times; if it dips for the fourth time, it may be a good opportunity for bold positioning, waiting for the dawn of market reversal.
Summary of key points from yesterday's live broadcast ⚠️ Second 2️⃣ The trade war issue that everyone is very concerned about, as mentioned before, if Trump only increases tariffs by 30% to 40%, then I think this policy is scientifically feasible, it could really happen. However, now that it has increased to 100% to 200%, this policy has lost its authenticity and feasibility, and there will be a lot of room for reversals. For example, the recent statement from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that tariffs have already reached 84%, and adding more is no longer meaningful. If the U.S. continues to impose tariffs, China will no longer participate in such a farcical performance. This official statement echoes my previous point of view. Once tariffs exceed 80%, it means that trade volume will decrease by more than 90%, which is almost equivalent to stopping trade. Any further increases will have little impact 🤷♂️ So at that time I stated that Trump's actions are very likely not a genuine intention to raise tariffs, but rather a way to use tariff threats to force these countries to compromise on other issues and seek other political benefits. This is well-founded. After my statement, China announced a reciprocal increase in tariffs on the U.S., which left Trump stunned. Then, we saw Trump repeatedly stating on Twitter that he was waiting for China to call him for negotiations, but as of now, China has not made that call 😅 So in the end, the issue of tariffs is not as bad as everyone thinks; there are also signs of easing. For example, recently the U.S. has proposed to reduce tariff increases on Chinese companies in the entire Apple supply chain. All of what I said can be verified with publicly available data and news. $BTC
Hey everyone! On April 15th at 18:00, we opened a short position with #DOGE . Just this morning at 2:00 AM, the price dropped to a low of 0.150, successfully hitting TP5, and all profit targets have been achieved! Right now, we are closing most of our positions, keeping just a small remaining position to continue earning profits easily. The key point is to set the BE (break-even point) at $DOGE , and we need to keep monitoring the subsequent trends.
The days of holding altcoins are too hard. $BTC has risen, MeMe Coin has risen, new coins have risen and then fallen, it's just the altcoins in the secondary market moving downwards, getting lower and lower, wanting to cry but having no tears. Brothers, what is your altcoin holding? 一起来币安王牌KOL聊天室聊天
Click the yellow font to directly enter the Saoge Binance chat room to receive benefits.
独领风骚必暴富
--
点此立即进骚哥币安专属KOL聊天室各种福利每月发 Trading can be simple or complex! It all depends on how you operate! Everything has a basis, trading has discipline, operations have backup! Binance Square's new feature, click 'Chat' on Saoge's homepage to enter Saoge's exclusive Binance chat room! Strategies are free to view, market discussions are free, and benefits are free to claim! A sure thing is Saoge! In wind and rain, Saoge is waiting for you in the Binance chat room! $ETH
Red envelope 🧧 and peripheral lucky draw 🎟️ preview Simey闪电币安王牌KOL聊天室 Dear Tiejui, the market is ruthless. Why don‘t you come to our chat room to chat? In addition to Kol’s free strategy guidance, we also have Web3 beautiful girls to teach you how to do airdrop. Now there are more benefits when entering the group. There will be a 50U password red envelope activity this month, and we have also prepared more sets of peripherals. We will give you a lucky draw, including Binance three-piece set, water bottles, silk scarves and other peripherals. Welcome to join the group to participate in our community‘s exclusive welfare activities!!
Red envelope 🧧 and peripheral lucky draw 🎟️ preview Simey闪电币安王牌KOL聊天室 Dear Tiejui, the market is ruthless. Why don‘t you come to our chat room to chat? In addition to Kol’s free strategy guidance, we also have Web3 beautiful girls to teach you how to do airdrop. Now there are more benefits when entering the group. There will be a 50U password red envelope activity this month, and we have also prepared more sets of peripherals. We will give you a lucky draw, including Binance three-piece set, water bottles, silk scarves and other peripherals. Welcome to join the group to participate in our community‘s exclusive welfare activities!!