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$BTC retreats from $105K high as traders de-risk; inflation data eyed as next major catalyst.

Bitcoin ($BTC) saw a notable correction on May 12, falling to $102,388 after peaking at $105,819, as investors locked in profits and reduced risk exposure ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on May 13. Despite the pullback, analysts view the move as a short-term technical sell-off within a broader bullish trend.

Key Highlights:

BTC dropped 3.2%, slipping below $103K despite strong macro sentiment.

Pre-CPI de-risking and sell-wall pressure near $106K triggered the reversal.

On-chain data remains bullish, indicating healthy consolidation.

BTC is still up 9% over the past week, with accumulation trends intact.

Trade Deal Fails to Sustain Momentum

The correction followed news of a U.S.–China tariff agreement announced in Geneva. President Trump praised the deal on Truth Social, sparking a 1,000-point rally in the Dow Jones. However, Bitcoin failed to maintain momentum above $104K, suggesting the news was already priced in.

Institutional Activity and M&A Support Bullish Outlook

Despite near-term volatility, underlying fundamentals remain strong:

Strategy CEO Michael Saylor disclosed a new 13,390 BTC purchase, raising the firm’s holdings to 568,840 BTC.

KindlyMD’s stock soared 600% after merging with Nakamoto Holdings, a Bitcoin-focused firm connected to Trump’s crypto advisor David Bailey.

ETF inflows and rising corporate treasury adoption continue to support institutional interest.

On-Chain Metrics Point to Short-Term Cooling

Data from Glassnode indicates a consolidation phase:

First-Time Buyers RSI remains strong at 100, while Momentum Buyers RSI hovers near 11.

Profit-taking activity is rising, with selling pressure near $106K.

Funding rates and open interest suggest long liquidations and fresh short positioning.

BTC underperformed equities, signaling temporary bid fatigue.

CPI Report Could Be Next Market Mover

Traders are watching today’s CPI data closely. A cooler-than-expected inflation print could reignite long interest, while a hotter report may extend consolidation. Regardless, continued ETF inflows, corporate M&A activity, and favorable regulatory developments may provide fuel for Bitcoin’s next.
#BTC

Bitcoin’s price dipped below $94,000 on April 30 amid profit-taking and macroeconomic jitters, yet large-scale investors continue to accumulate, suggesting confidence in the cryptocurrency’s long-term trajectory despite near-term volatility.
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### Macroeconomic Jitters: U.S. GDP Decline Sparks Stagflation Concerns
Bitcoin slid to $93,919 following a surprise contraction in U.S. Q1 GDP, which fell -0.3% against expectations of +0.3% growth. The GDP Price Index surged to 3.7% — its highest since August 2023 — raising fears of stagflation (stagnant growth paired with high inflation). Meanwhile, March’s Core PCE inflation held steady at 2.6%, aligning with forecasts, but an upward revision to February’s data (3.0%) clouded Federal Reserve policy outlooks.
With recession odds for 2025 climbing to 67% (per Polymarket), investors appear cautious. Bitcoin’s struggle to breach the $95,000 resistance reflects this uncertainty, as markets weigh delayed rate cuts against inflation risks.
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### Profit-Taking Intensifies: $300M Sell-Off in Three Days
Data from Glassnode highlights escalating selling pressure, with Bitcoin’s spot volume delta plunging by over $300 million between April 26–29:
- April 26: -$16M
- April 27: -$30.9M
- April 28: -$76.1M
- April 29: -$193.4M
This aggressive profit-taking, marked by the steepest single-day outflow on April 29, aligns with Bitcoin’s rejection near $95,500. Declining spot volumes (7-day average) further signal weakening retail demand.
---$BTC
### Whales vs. Retail: A Divergence in Strategy
While smaller investors sell, whale addresses (holding 10,000+ BTC) are doubling down. Glassnode’s accumulation trend score for whales nears 0.95 (on a 0–1 scale), reflecting robust buying activity. In contrast:
- Mid-tier holders (10–100 BTC): Score ~0.6
- Retail-tier (1–10 BTC): Score ~0.3
- Small wallets (<1 BTC): Score ~0.2
This split mirrors early bull market cycles, where institutional players build positions during retail sell-offs, anticipating prolonged upward momentum.
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### Profit-Taking Spike: A Stress Test for the Rally
Hourly realized profits surged to $139.9 million last week — 17% above the $120 million baseline — as traders capitalized on Bitcoin’s 30% rebound from April lows. Similar profit-taking phases in March 2024 and December 2020 preceded consolidation periods and eventual new highs, particularly when whale accumulation coincided with supportive macro trends. $BTC
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### Key Takeaways
1. Macro Pressures: Stagflation risks and Fed uncertainty are driving short-term volatility, but cooling PCE inflation offers a silver lining.
2. Whale Confidence: Persistent accumulation by large holders suggests institutional faith in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
3. Critical Levels: A sustained break above $95,000 could reignite momentum toward $100,000, while failure may extend consolidation.
Bitcoin’s next move hinges on macro data (upcoming U.S. jobs reports) and whale behavior. For now, the bull market’s resilience appears intact, with volatility offering strategic entry points for patient investors.
#BTC