祝融社区行情分析

Trading is always like this. When there is a floating loss, I regret entering the market too early. When there is a floating profit, I regret not adding more positions when there was a floating loss [covering face]

BTC is testing the key resistance of 67,000. It is easy to get out of the 65,000-67,000 oscillation range here, and even 63,500 is possible.

So if you want to add long positions, or if you have short positions but no orders, you can continue to go long at these two positions of 65,000 and 63,500 once the market gives you an opportunity.

If the 1-hour candle effectively breaks through 67,200, short positions can also chase longs.
$BTC #BTC走势分析

TON daily line returns to the zero axis, you can arrange bullish orders.

Today there is a high probability that BTC will test the resistance near 72800. If the breakthrough fails, long orders will have to take profits. For short orders, see if the pattern of failed breakthrough can be shorted.
If the direct breakthrough is successful, then the market will go to btc starting with 8

ETH has not yet become strong, but this form of strength is easy to come out of. The key is to see whether the resistance of 3690, 3880-3930 can be broken through. If it breaks through, you can see ETH starting with 4, which will easily challenge the historical high of 4800 in the later period; otherwise, 3930 If the area fails to break through, long orders should take profit.
#BTC #ETH

From the BTC position, you can make a profit, and the rest for swing/long-term players can continue to follow the original plan.
Learn how to make profits in the short term

At present, the position of BTC is suppressed by the resistance zone, and there is still a counterattack to be done in 4 hours. If it can be adjusted sideways between 64500-68000, it will be conducive to continuing the price rise, and the 16-hour rebound will start.

At present, ETFs continue to have net outflows, external buying demand is decreasing, and gray selling pressure continued to increase yesterday, so there is still a chance that the daily line position will be reached. Will it eventually be handed over to the market at the daily line? For the time being, we have to play with the 4-hour reverse trend. Adjust the market price.
ETH is likely to lead the rise in the future, and ETH/BTC bottoms out at K.
Note for ETH, when the price reaches near the 6-hour position of 3600, short-term contracts must take profit at least half of the position, and long-term orders can take profit of about 30% of the position. Currently, when the price reaches the 3/4-hour counter position, as long as it does not fall below 3375 , the price still has to go up to the 6-hour position (if you are worried about profit retracement at 3 hours, short-term orders can directly take profit by half). If you want to add a position after selling out part of the long-term order, you can wait 3/6 hours for the counter-draw to end. At the same time, you can't add a position when the daily rebound pattern goes bad. #ETH $ETH

Note that just now BTC2 failed to break through 69,000 for the first time, and the large-volume pin went directly to 70,000. Here we need to prevent the risk of a correction.
66800 is the current key support. If it falls below, it will easily weaken, followed by 65500. If it falls below again, it will easily go to around 62000.

Therefore, you can consider short-term or spot position hedging here, and stop loss tonight at the pin point contract price of 70350.
Can be considered operationally
1. Wait for a weak rebound near 0.618 (half of the normal position is short near 68600), and increase the position to the normal position if it falls below 65500.
2. If the level falls below 66800, the normal position will be short by half, if the level falls below 65500, the position will be increased to the normal position.

Take profit temporarily at #BTC $BTC near 62000

Follow up on current trends

Last night, the breakthrough of 69,000 failed for the first time, and it was too fast and only stayed for 2 minutes. Last night, it was obvious that the long positions were washed out, the leverage was cleared, and the continuous rise finally led to a sharp drop of more than 10%; but as we have said, this trend is In the market, the callback and pin testing of the support area are all opportunities to go long. The rebound during the day today is pretty good. Let’s see if there will be another pin when the Beige Book of Economic Conditions is released at 3 o’clock in the morning tonight.

Current data:
1. The chip distribution below 59900-63350 forms a range support. If the price does not fall below the low point of the range, the price will continue to rise/come out of the 60000-68000 range.
2. The net outflow of ETFs last night was 311 million U.S. dollars, which shows that users of the traditional capital market are showing signs of cashing out profits. They are simply seeing BTC reaching its historical peak and choosing to sell because they are worried about a strong pressure correction. We must continue to monitor daily funds in the future. Is it a net inflow or a net outflow? If the outflow continues, the price of BTC will also be affected and fall.

From a technical perspective:
1. Last night’s pin basically cleared more than 10 times the long leverage, but the support here of 60,000 has still not fallen below, indicating that this is a strong support, and long contracts can use this as a defensive zone (if there was a call last night If you have multiple contracts near 61,000, you can set the profit protection price near 65,000)
2. After the pin is inserted, the rebound temporarily stabilizes at 0.618, which is easy to challenge the resistance near 68000 above. It is difficult to say whether the previous high energy can continue to break higher.
3. The trend of eth is relatively strong. The pin directly tests the 3200 support. It is currently rebounding to near the previous high last night. The upper part is 3960. 4120 is still the short-term target price area #BTC $BTC #ContentMining

MACD has now returned to around 52 at 32 hours. It can be used in combination with the 3-hour reverse bottom divergence signal of the main time of the decline to place long orders when the signal appears.

In addition, in the liquidation map, please note that there is a large amount of high-leverage multi-order liquidity at 40450 below.

For long orders, you can place orders between 39500 and 40500. Note that when orders are necessary, light positions in batches. For stop loss, please refer to 39000/38400.

If the stop loss is lost, place a long position of $BTC with a stop loss on the 3-day line.

BTC has entered the long position area of ​​the band (currently only light positions can be opened, and the signal on the right has not yet appeared)

For the first time, big investors on the Big B website made huge buying orders.

In the naked K structure, pay attention to whether the low support near the daily line 40230 below will be falsely broken. In addition, the futures gap is between 39300-40500. It would be best if the gap can be filled and an increase occurs.

The average price of short-term holders is 37,500. If the price of 39,300 is not maintained, the price will fall back to around 37,500-36,500.

After the short-term trend drops sharply, it is easy to adjust at the bottom. It is not recommended to go short here. $BTC #BTC

BTC naked K structure, sideways breakthrough fails, please note that if POC-VAL falls below, it is easy to go to the bottom of the sideways area, or even the 32-hour position (41000)

MACD is currently following a 3-hour retracement trend. The current weak market is above the 1-hour zero line. As long as it crosses the zero line, the 3-hour retracement trend will start.

Therefore, if you have long orders in hand, please pay attention to profit realization and order management $BTC

A sharp decline in BTC is better than a slow decline, but the sharp decline is not yet in place. It is best to test the 32-hour position (Figure 1)

It is currently falling sharply to the daily line, and the daily line is not yet safe at the moment.
This drop was a bit sharp, but it still followed the 16-hour trend as expected, and then followed the daily/32-hour trend.

The short-term trend has temporarily stopped falling, and it is easy to return to the zero axis of 1 hour and 30 minutes. When pulling back at these two times, you need to pay attention to whether it will fall back to the 32-hour position.

BTC.D3’s two daily rebounds are over and it is easy to fall to the weekly position. Therefore, altcoins have been stronger than BTC recently.
When BTC stops falling, those altcoins with long positions can continue to place short-term long orders, but don’t hold them for too long.

ETH's daily main time rebound broke through the sideways zone, and the top of the sideways zone became a strong support area. This is almost the zero axis for the next 6 hours. You can consider placing some long orders.
Is it possible to go long after the current 3-hour rebound of ETH? It is recommended to wait for 15 minutes/30 minutes to pull out the bottom #ETH $ETH

Last night, the SEC approved 11 BTC spot ETFs at one time
The news finally came to light
In the future, trading BTC will no longer be about currency speculation, but will officially enter the era of US stocks.

More traditional funds will gradually enter the BTC market and cryptocurrency market
The bull market after this round of BTC halving is definitely the last bull market in which BTC can rise several times.
In the next big bull market, it will basically be difficult to get out of the market that rises several times.

Don’t miss the opportunity after halving

But don’t chase BTC higher at the moment. After the news came through, it didn’t go straight out of the violent rise.
The news of ETF has stimulated the trend of BTC starting from June 17, 2023.

(BTC operation advice)
BTC has risen all the way to around $48,000. This area is currently considered a high-risk zone (48,000-52,000)
It is best to wait for a decent correction when buying BTC on spot (pay attention to the average position price of short-term holders) $BTC #BTC

Today's market is not easy to grasp. After last night's false drop, the pin was inserted at 42,500, and it is currently trading sideways. If it falls below the sideways market, the market will still go to the 40,000-39,500 range.
If it breaks through the sideways market, it will go to around 44,000. A large number of short positions will be liquidated at 43,700, the stop loss level.

Powell dropped a dove last night. The market expects an interest rate cut of 50 BP in May next year. The dot plot shows that interest rates will be cut by at least 75 BP next year. The general environment is favorable.
Options positions are rising and trending healthy

BTC should be careful not to effectively fall below 42500. If it falls below, it will easily cover the gap below.
Today, pay attention to the 15-minute rebound strength of BTC and the subsequent 30-minute rebound strength. There is an opportunity to push the price higher to fill the gap above. The corresponding contract price is almost around 44,000 #BTC $BTC

Resolutely don’t go short. The rapid rise has not seen the exhaustion of the potential of the bulls.

In addition, the futures market breaks through directly at the pressure level of 38,500 in the form of a gap. This is a powerful breakthrough. As long as the price does not fall back below 38,500, it is a safe rising market!

The market will continue to trade in December and stop raising interest rates. Expectations for interest rate cuts next year, as well as expectations for the approval of spot ETFs in early January. These benefits will easily continue to drive up prices this month, especially after mid-December! However, it is not recommended to increase your position or purchase more than 38K BTC#BTC $BTC

BTC has entered the short selling zone
The spot selling pressure is 38,500, and there are 350 pending orders. However, if all the sell orders at 38,500 are eaten up, the price will easily test the high point near 40,000 very quickly!

In addition, short positions in contracts are increasing.
And there is a CVD bearish divergence

Short: 38200-38500
Stop loss: 38850
Take profit: 37700-37000-35800

If 37700 is successfully reached, you can take profit of 20% of the position and place the remaining stop loss at 38500/38300$BTC #BTC

BTC has once again reached the pressure zone of the shock box. Safe trades continue to wait for short order opportunities near 38,000.
30 minutes to 45 minutes is the last key and formative rebound time. You can wait for a rebound near 37050 to see if there will be a chance to rebound to end the high altitude.
If the price does not rebound at 30-45 minutes and falls below 37000, the price will easily continue to fall and test the bottom support of the shock box again.

The sharp rise at around 2 o'clock in the morning last night was due to the news that SEC officials mentioned spot ETFs, which caused a sharp increase in FOMO sentiment (recently, the price has gone up as long as there is a little bit of good news, but the bad news has not gone down)

BTC will be weaker than the copycat, but the trend of the copycat will be stronger! But during the day, most of the copycats have returned, so there is no good entry point! Wait until tomorrow to see if there are more opportunities for a correction!

BTC is testing 0.618 here (near 36930)

Here you can pay attention to try to go short and see if the market will come back tonight near 0.618! At present, the support below the market has not fallen into place, but the recent market has been volatile and easy to move up and down, so this short order may not be very stable!

BTC
Short: 36900-37000
Stop loss: 37350
Take Profit 1: 35500
Take Profit 2: 34600
$BTC #BTC

The price fell below 36000, and the contract price last night was close to 52 in 12 hours. The price here is likely to undergo a counter-draw adjustment of 15m-30m-1h-2h, and it is easy to get out of a shock range (35200-26200). There is a high probability that the market outlook will be around 12 hours and 52 again. Therefore, long-term long orders near 12 hours continue to wait for opportunities. The news of btc spot ETF will be released in the next two days. Pay attention to whether the pin will drop again.

In addition, the trading plan is very important. As long as it is formulated, there is no need to make too many changes in the middle, unless there is a special market situation and the plan deviates.

The reason why impulsive trading always occurs is that you are too impatient. As long as you don't trade according to the plan, there is a high probability of continuous losses. The stop loss is reluctant to stop the loss, and the stop profit is reluctant to stop the profit. Even losing orders last a long time, while winning orders last a short time. As long as you go against your wrong habits and trade one day, you will definitely make a profit.

If the transaction was executed strictly in accordance with the order management and trading plan last night, there would be no loss. At most, the loss would be loss of capital and handling fees.

For example, for my own order, I entered the market with a 4-hour long order of 36,300. Last night, the price rose twice to around 52 at 30 minutes. I set a protective stop loss of 36,400. After the price fell sharply and wiped out the protective loss, it fell below 36,000 and started shorting. The trading plan is to wait for a natural rebound and then go short to the 12-hour position. The rebound near 0.618 was followed by a 5-minute counterattack. Enter the market to go short near 36250 and take profit at 34600 (the pin 36460 was inserted in the middle of the night and the take-profit was not started. Manually Take profit and exit near 35160. $BTC #BTC