The bitcoin market continues to show weakness, despite a slight recovery in trading volumes. Selling pressure remains, and interest in derivatives is declining. Options markets show high hedging activity, indicating expectations of uncertainty. Against a backdrop of low liquidity and increasing demand for hedging, the threat of price declines persists.
The cryptocurrency market is in a contraction phase after Bitcoin failed to break through the $105k mark in January. Bitcoin remains stable, while Ethereum, Solana and memecoins are facing deeper corrections. Solana, previously the leader in capital inflows, is also experiencing a significant decline. Open interest in Bitcoin futures is down 11.1%, Ethereum by 23.8%, Solana by 6.2%, and the memecoin index by 52.1%, reflecting a decline in interest in leveraged speculation.
- Bitcoin price briefly exceeded $69k, breaking significant technical and on-chain levels. - All short-term holders now have unrealized profits, which could improve market sentiment. - Open interest in futures markets hits new all-time highs, indicating speculation is on the rise.
- Demand in the cryptocurrency market has declined significantly since March 2024, when the all-time high of $73,000 was reached. - Daily new capital inflows into the Bitcoin network are around $0.73 billion, significantly lower than the peak of $2.97 billion. - The reduction in available supply, including short-term and highly liquid stocks, indicates a preference for HODLing among investors. - Activity in the futures markets has also declined, indicating a reduction in speculation and investor attention. - The Liveliness metric shows a persistent trend towards HODLing, which further narrows the available supply. - The market is experiencing a unique period of equilibrium between supply and demand, which may foreshadow increased volatility in the future.
**Cryptocurrency Market: Analysis of Current Trends**
- Current corrections in the Bitcoin market remain relatively shallow, which is in line with historical uptrends. - Positioning and behavior of short-term holders have improved, which is associated with price attempts to recover the $62.5k level. - Significant volume of open futures positions can lead to liquidation cascades in high volatility. - Despite the recent pullback to $60k, the market recovered to $63.5k by the end of the week. - The depth of corrections in the current cycle is in line with previous ones, with a maximum decline of -26%. - The $47k and $52.5k levels remain key for determining macroeconomic trends. - Speculation in the futures markets is increasing, which can increase volatility.
This report does not constitute investment advice.
- Demand for digital assets remains low, with small amounts of capital entering and exiting the market. - Investors continue to HODL, leading to a decrease in active trading. - Bitcoin price has remained stable for the past six months, indicating a possible increase in volatility in the future. - The volume of liquid coins is decreasing, while the number of long-term holders is growing. - The volume of stablecoins is increasing, reaching $160.4 billion, indicating potential purchasing power in the future. - Volatility is expected to increase due to current price stability.
- The Glassnode platform now supports over 500 new ERC-20 tokens. - This extension allows users to analyze Ethereum assets with the same depth as Bitcoin. - Includes metrics on asset fundamentals, capital expenditures, and profit and loss data. - Access to ERC-20 metrics is free for the first 30 days.
- Bitcoin network hashrate is almost at an all-time high despite miners' revenues declining. This indicates high confidence among participants in the network.
- Investor interest in exchanges is declining, trading volumes are falling, indicating a decline in activity and appetite for speculation.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are showing capital outflows, while interest in Bitcoin ETFs remains significantly higher.
**News: Bitcoin Dominance in the Cryptocurrency Market**
- Since November 2022, Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market has grown from 38% to 56%. - Long-term holders continue to accumulate and hold coins despite volatile market conditions. - Short-term holders have suffered the brunt of losses, which may indicate a possible overreaction to recent events.
**Market Analysis:**
- Ethereum dominance has decreased by 1.5%, remaining relatively stable. - Stablecoins and altcoins have decreased by 9.9% and 5.9%, respectively. - The market has shown signs of reaching equilibrium in recent months.
**Conclusion:**
- Despite market uncertainty, capital continues to flow into Bitcoin, confirming its leading position.
- After more than a decade of litigation, Mt.Gox creditors have begun to receive returned bitcoins. Of the 141,686 BTC, about 59k BTC has already been distributed through the Kraken and Bitstamp exchanges.
- Long-term investors continue to hold 45% of network wealth, above levels seen at macrocycle peaks.
- Selling pressure from long-term holders is decreasing, indicating a return to the HODLing strategy.
CME Group and Glassnode have released a joint report, Digital Assets: H1 Market Insights and Trends 2024. The report includes analysis of key developments in the digital asset market, providing institutional investors with valuable insights into the latest trends.
The report covers: market overview, analysis of capital flows and market cycles, fundamentals of the derivatives market.
Basic moments: - CME dominance in the digital asset futures market - Bull market correction - ETH/BTC ratio as an indicator of market sentiment - Comparison of Bitcoin settlement volumes with Visa and Mastercard
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The cryptocurrency market has been trading sideways since March after reaching a historical high of $73 thousand. Analysis of short-term investors shows negative demand dynamics since the beginning of May. Long-term holders, despite the fact that their share is only 4%-8% of the total, bring 30%-40% of the profit. This highlights the concentration of wealth in old coins.
Despite price volatility, investor profitability remains high, with the average profit from holding coins being around 120%. Demand is sufficient to absorb selling pressure and HODLer divestment, but not sufficient for further growth. Cash and carry trading continues, especially among institutional traders, confirming the expectation of range-bound trading for now.
Decentralized exchanges (DEX) such as Uniswap are a key element of the crypto-financial system. Uniswap, the largest DEX protocol, is known for its permissionless access and simplified user experience. The main benefits of a DEX come from the scalability of the underlying blockchain, which entails greater latency and higher transaction fees. However, unlike centralized exchanges, users retain control of their funds and transact through liquidity pools.