做空投的小别

9.13 Predict the logic of drawing doors
1.25300 has experienced many times without breaking, and bulls will habitually regard it as a stop-loss point for bullish calls.
2. After the big Yin line falls below 25300, the short sellers will think that the key support has fallen below the collective right and chase the shorts.
3. When your intention is too obvious and almost obvious, the main force can easily predict your behavior and use a small amount of funds to cut both long and short positions.
4. The downward trend of the market outlook has not changed, and it is only a matter of time before it falls below 24800.

9.8 Rebound in Downtrend
After the 1.8.17 plunge, I once said that the key words for the next month are dips and rebounds. This is basically the trend for the past half month.
2. What should be noted above is the pressure level around 28000-285000. If the market rebounds to the pressure level again and then falls back, it may form a new round of decline.

9.6 Market sentiment is depressed
1. Both the funding rate and contract positions in the current market are low, which is not conducive to the continued decline of the market.
2. The market will continue to consolidate around 25,000-28,000, and then continue to fall after the market vitality is restored.
3. It is good to make dual-currency investment during the consolidation market. The price remains unchanged and the profits continue to flow.

9.5
The point of view has not changed. The current market sentiment is relatively sluggish, it is difficult to continue to fall, and it will consolidate in the 25000-28000 area

9.4 Consolidation recovery in a downtrend
1. After BTC plummeted on August 17, it was proposed that it would consolidate and recover for several weeks. The trend in the past two weeks has confirmed this view, and it is expected that the consolidation will continue for another week or two.
2. The consolidation range is around 25,000-28,000. The upper and lower rails of the range provide short-term trading opportunities.

8.30 is just a rebound after the second test
1. Yesterday, BTC rebounded quickly after the second test. The stimulation of the news increased the intensity of the rebound, but this explosion is unsustainable.
2. The market is still rebounding in the downward trend, and the area around 28500 is the watershed.
3. Regardless of whether the market is bullish or bearish this year, the retracement range is very large, and there is no smooth unilateral trend.

Since 6.21, the market has roughly gone through 5 stages.
28000-31500 up
31800 peaked
After falling below 29500, it rebounded to 30200
30200 began to plummet
Consolidation after the plunge

These two months of tweets have almost perfectly predicted the trend of each stage,
It is easy to call long or short.
It is rare to depict the details of each stage
It is rare to predict specific time, spatial extent, and key points
It’s rare that every point of view has continuity, it’s not changing overnight

8.25 Continue to organize

1. The recent market trend can be simply understood as the consolidation and repair from the 25,000 area to the 27,000 area.
2. This is a re-accumulation of market activity and contract positions after the sharp decline. This situation will last for several weeks.
3. Short-term trading opportunities are on the upper and lower rails of the range

8.23 Second exploration in progress

1. Yesterday, the market dropped again to near the previous low and then pulled up.
2. I think the second test is not strong enough. In the next one or two weeks, if it falls below the previous low or even around 24800, it will attract funds to chase shorts, and only then can an effective rebound be formed.

In tonight’s space, many people are interested in Shanzhai. First of all, it’s not time to buy Shanzhai yet, but I’d like to share my favorite sectors.

1. New L1L2, arb.op.sui.apt and defi on it, the current market value is about 1 billion u, the peak of the bull market is over 50 billion, tvl is more than 150 billion, refer to the last round of ada, eth

2. The platform currency bgb.bit has a current market value of 600 million, and the peak of the bull market exceeded 10 billion.

Reason: Public chain/rigid demand defi and platform currency are the only profitable projects that can survive in the bear market. Hundred-fold coins have not been absent in every bull market.

3. AI sector
Most of the current market capitalization is less than 200 million, and the peak of the bull market is 5-10 billion.

Reason: This is a sector that is unique to this bull market cycle and has a grand narrative.

They all refer to the circulating market capitalization. In addition, don’t simply understand how many times it can be multiplied by one division. You must also consider the growth of the currency’s circulation in 2025.

7.31 Risks outweigh opportunities
1. The short-term rebound is expected to be blocked in the 29700-30700 area
2. No matter what, the risks of more than 30,000 BTC and more than 2,000 ETH are greater than the opportunities.

7.24 Depth callback
The decline that started at 1.31800 was at least a deep and long-lasting correction.
2. The 29500 area looked like it was going to fall below several times but it did not, which caused many people to pursue short positions at this position. We should be wary of breaking through 30500 upwards and eliminate the short positions before falling again.

7.19
1. In the short term, BTC will continue to rebound this week, and the BTC pressure will be around 31,000, especially altcoins are expected to run wild for a short time
2. In the medium and long term, after the rebound, it will enter a callback cycle

7.12 Several views on the midline

1.30000-36000 is an important pressure area. Above it is a huge holding range. It is difficult for the price to cross this range at one time.

2. Bulls end in fanaticism, and bears end in crisis; there are no signs of peaking yet. To end the rise of more than half a year, a more fanatical atmosphere is needed.

3. The main players are good at taking advantage of appropriate opportunities and pay attention to the market trends before and after the last two interest rate hikes.

7.11
The point of view has not changed. Yesterday’s rebound touched the 31,000 pressure level and then fell back. The callback continues, and the target is around 29,000

No one is paying attention to the airdrop, so I can only analyze the market!

7.10 The callback is not over yet
1.29500 is the defensive position of most short-term and long-term bulls, and it may fall below it in the next week
2. It is more inclined to short-term callback behavior, the decline will not be very deep, and the support is roughly around 29000