概率交易法则
微博同名。波浪理论践行者，概率交易法创始人（正在撰写个人交易系统书籍《概率交易法则》，敬请期待）。
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See original
— Today's Market
(1) Considered as a 3-4 adjustment, the highest will not exceed 125435, and the lowest cannot break below 73787. Since 3-4 is a horizontal adjustment, it is difficult to break new lows, thus the lowest will not be 74501.
(2) This segment of the rise is a double sawtooth, currently undergoing the Y wave, with a peak probability estimated at 85%, greater than 70% is judged to be an executable standard.
Note: The analysis and prediction are just personal interests, and there are no trading suggestions.
(2) This segment of the rise is a double sawtooth, currently undergoing the Y wave, with a peak probability estimated at 85%, greater than 70% is judged to be an executable standard.
Note: The analysis and prediction are just personal interests, and there are no trading suggestions.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) If it is a 3-4 adjustment, the maximum will not exceed 127534, and the minimum must not fall below 73787; if it is a 3-2 adjustment, it must break above 73787, and the minimum must not be lower than 54000; if it falls below 54000, it is considered to still be in the super 2 wave.
(2) Yesterday, it was mentioned that the triangle adjustment is nearing its end, and indeed, a strong surge began during the day.
(3) Currently, there has been no significant retracement before the rise begins, which is deemed an adjustment, as the first wave is a guiding wedge; do not expect too much from the peak of this rise.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely personal preferences and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) Yesterday, it was mentioned that the triangle adjustment is nearing its end, and indeed, a strong surge began during the day.
(3) Currently, there has been no significant retracement before the rise begins, which is deemed an adjustment, as the first wave is a guiding wedge; do not expect too much from the peak of this rise.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely personal preferences and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) If it is a 3-4 adjustment, the highest will not exceed 127534, and the lowest cannot break through 73787; if it is a 3-2 adjustment, it must break through 73787, and the lowest cannot be lower than 54000; if it falls below 54000, it is considered to still be in a super wave 2.
(2) After the guiding wedge, it looks very much like a triangular adjustment, which is currently nearing its end.
(3) If there is no proper pullback before the rise starts, the current rise is an adjustment, and the highest may have difficulty exceeding 0.7 times the drop from 109000, which may continue to develop towards 3-2.
Note: The prediction calculations are purely a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) After the guiding wedge, it looks very much like a triangular adjustment, which is currently nearing its end.
(3) If there is no proper pullback before the rise starts, the current rise is an adjustment, and the highest may have difficulty exceeding 0.7 times the drop from 109000, which may continue to develop towards 3-2.
Note: The prediction calculations are purely a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) If it is a 3-4 adjustment, the maximum will not exceed 127534, and the minimum cannot break 73787; if it is a 3-2 adjustment, it must break 73787, and the minimum cannot be below 54000; if it falls below 54000, it is considered to still be in a super 2 wave.
(2) Temporarily set the endpoint of the decline from 109800 at 74501.
(3) The rise from the bottom of 74501 is relatively consistent with a guiding wedge, and it may currently be undergoing a pullback of that rise.
(4) If (3) is correct, the first pullback target may be around 82000, and the second may be below 79500.
Note: The forecast calculations are for personal interest only and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) Temporarily set the endpoint of the decline from 109800 at 74501.
(3) The rise from the bottom of 74501 is relatively consistent with a guiding wedge, and it may currently be undergoing a pullback of that rise.
(4) If (3) is correct, the first pullback target may be around 82000, and the second may be below 79500.
Note: The forecast calculations are for personal interest only and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) If it's a 3-4 correction, the maximum will not break 127534, and the minimum cannot break 73787; if it's a 3-2 correction, it must break 73787, and the minimum cannot be lower than 54000; if it drops below 54000, it is considered to still be in a super 2-wave.
(2) Because there is no new low, the rise does not meet the driving force.
(3) Either a failed 5-wave structure occurred, with the endpoint at 74627 on April 9, and if this rise breaks 86671, it will be considered this possibility.
(4) Either we need to continue breaking new lows. But in any case, this is the bottom range.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely personal preferences and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) Because there is no new low, the rise does not meet the driving force.
(3) Either a failed 5-wave structure occurred, with the endpoint at 74627 on April 9, and if this rise breaks 86671, it will be considered this possibility.
(4) Either we need to continue breaking new lows. But in any case, this is the bottom range.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely personal preferences and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
If it is a 3-4 adjustment, it will not exceed 127534 at the highest and cannot go below 73787 at the lowest; if it is a 3-2 adjustment, it must exceed 73787, and the lowest cannot be below 54000; if it drops below 54000, it is considered to still be in a super wave 2.
Today it almost broke a new low, which is somewhat regrettable, just a little bit off.
The probability of an increase is estimated at 85%. There is a high likelihood of reaching a stage bottom soon, currently in the stage bottom range (the true stage bottom may drop by 10%, around 69000). Today, 75500 has 90% position.
Note: The predictive calculations are merely a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.
Today it almost broke a new low, which is somewhat regrettable, just a little bit off.
The probability of an increase is estimated at 85%. There is a high likelihood of reaching a stage bottom soon, currently in the stage bottom range (the true stage bottom may drop by 10%, around 69000). Today, 75500 has 90% position.
Note: The predictive calculations are merely a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
If it is a 3-4 adjustment, the maximum will not exceed 127534, and the minimum cannot drop below 73787; if it is a 3-2 adjustment, it must break through 73787, and the minimum cannot be lower than 54000; if it goes below 54000, it is believed to still be in a super wave 2.
The 'Three Black Crows' pattern has appeared on the 4-hour chart, indicating that the market will further decline and has not stabilized temporarily.
There is a high possibility of a recent stage bottom appearing, currently likely in the stage bottom range (the true stage bottom may float down by 10%, around 69000). If you are not too concerned about the price, you can plan to hold about one-third of your position.
The 'Three Black Crows' pattern has appeared on the 4-hour chart, indicating that the market will further decline and has not stabilized temporarily.
There is a high possibility of a recent stage bottom appearing, currently likely in the stage bottom range (the true stage bottom may float down by 10%, around 69000). If you are not too concerned about the price, you can plan to hold about one-third of your position.
See original
—Today's Market
Not a new rise, just a correction, continue to be bearish.
See original
—Today's Market
（1）If it is a 3-4 adjustment, the high will not exceed 127534, and the low must not break 73787; if it is a 3-2 adjustment, it must break 73787, and the low cannot be lower than 54000; if it falls below 54000, it is considered to still be within a super wave 2.
（2）The risk was already indicated last night, continuing to probe lower towards around 74500, and currently, there are no signs of stabilization at the smaller levels.
（3）The monthly chart shows a bearish trend, while the daily and weekly charts indicate signs of a stage bottom building, but it is not strong enough yet.
（4）The range of 76-88 has been corrected to a multi-zigzag.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely for personal interest and do not constitute trading advice.
（2）The risk was already indicated last night, continuing to probe lower towards around 74500, and currently, there are no signs of stabilization at the smaller levels.
（3）The monthly chart shows a bearish trend, while the daily and weekly charts indicate signs of a stage bottom building, but it is not strong enough yet.
（4）The range of 76-88 has been corrected to a multi-zigzag.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely for personal interest and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) If it is a 3-4 adjustment, it will not exceed 127534; if it is a 3-2 adjustment, it cannot be lower than 56000.
(2) The Nasdaq has a further downward trend. The monthly line is in a bearish trend, while the daily and weekly lines show signs of a phase of bottoming, but it is not strong enough. In addition, the last first wave is considered a guiding wedge, which adds to the difficulties.
(3) The overall cost-performance ratio is not high, control your position.
Note: The predictive calculations are merely a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) The Nasdaq has a further downward trend. The monthly line is in a bearish trend, while the daily and weekly lines show signs of a phase of bottoming, but it is not strong enough. In addition, the last first wave is considered a guiding wedge, which adds to the difficulties.
(3) The overall cost-performance ratio is not high, control your position.
Note: The predictive calculations are merely a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
—Today's Market
（1）Looking at the 3-4 adjustment, the first sub-wave (or the entirety of the adjustment) must not fall below 76600.
（2）Last time I mentioned that a large entity was needed to clarify the direction, and indeed a large bearish candle appeared shortly after.
（3）Since dropping from 88769, there has been no significant rebound. Currently, it has adjusted to 76600-88976's 0.618 level, and both bulls and bears are engaged in a fierce tug-of-war around 81500, but the bears are still very aggressive.
（4）Currently, there are signs of stabilization on the 1-hour chart, but the level is too small, and further verification is needed.
（5）From a technical perspective, it seems there may be one more decline, with the next target around 80000.
See original
— Today's Market
（1）Looking at the 3-4 adjustment, the first sub-wave (or the entire adjustment) cannot fall below 76600.
（2）The current segment coming up from 76600 is tentatively seen as a guiding wedge, and it is undergoing a pullback. Only a pullback below 84500 could lead to a better further rise; otherwise, it is considered a rebound.
（3）The bears currently have a slight upper hand and urgently need a large entity to clearly define the direction.
Note: The predictive calculations are solely a personal hobby, and there is no trading advice.
（2）The current segment coming up from 76600 is tentatively seen as a guiding wedge, and it is undergoing a pullback. Only a pullback below 84500 could lead to a better further rise; otherwise, it is considered a rebound.
（3）The bears currently have a slight upper hand and urgently need a large entity to clearly define the direction.
Note: The predictive calculations are solely a personal hobby, and there is no trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) Watch for a 3-4 adjustment; the first sub-wave (or the entire adjustment) must not fall below 76600.
(2) The current segment coming from 76600 is tentatively viewed as a guiding wedge, which is undergoing a retracement. Only a retracement below 84500 may lead to a better upward movement; otherwise, it is regarded as a rebound.
(3) Guiding wedges generally tend to lead to failed upward movements; this segment is temporarily viewed as a rebound.
Note: The predictive calculations are for personal interest only and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) The current segment coming from 76600 is tentatively viewed as a guiding wedge, which is undergoing a retracement. Only a retracement below 84500 may lead to a better upward movement; otherwise, it is regarded as a rebound.
(3) Guiding wedges generally tend to lead to failed upward movements; this segment is temporarily viewed as a rebound.
Note: The predictive calculations are for personal interest only and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
（1）Looking at a 3-4 adjustment, the first sub-wave (or the entire adjustment) cannot fall below 76600.
（2）MA20 has been above for 3 days, and the probability of it holding is quite high.
（3）The current segment coming up from 76600 looks like a guiding wedge, and the retracement after the wedge is generally large.
（4）If the guiding wedge is complete, it is likely to retrace below 83000.
Note: The forecast calculations are purely a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.
（2）MA20 has been above for 3 days, and the probability of it holding is quite high.
（3）The current segment coming up from 76600 looks like a guiding wedge, and the retracement after the wedge is generally large.
（4）If the guiding wedge is complete, it is likely to retrace below 83000.
Note: The forecast calculations are purely a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) Observing the 3-4 adjustment, as the segment from 108365 to 76600 approaches its limit, no additional sub-waves can be added; therefore, the first sub-wave cannot break below 76600.
(2) Still continuously challenging MA20.
(3) The rise from 76600 does not meet the characteristics of an impulse wave; the current first segment can only develop into a leading wedge.
(4) Exceeding (1) and (3) will develop into 3-2.
Note: The predictive calculations are solely for personal interest and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) Still continuously challenging MA20.
(3) The rise from 76600 does not meet the characteristics of an impulse wave; the current first segment can only develop into a leading wedge.
(4) Exceeding (1) and (3) will develop into 3-2.
Note: The predictive calculations are solely for personal interest and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) Looking at a 3-4 adjustment, the premise is that it cannot fall below 73787 (allowing for a new low, the low has already reached 76600). The limit is 184 days.
(2) The market is in an extremely weak position, repeatedly being pushed down near the MA20. Without a stable position above the MA20, I do not see signs of market recovery.
(3) The adjustment time at this position won't be too short. Even if there is a rise, there will be entry opportunities in the next 50 days.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) The market is in an extremely weak position, repeatedly being pushed down near the MA20. Without a stable position above the MA20, I do not see signs of market recovery.
(3) The adjustment time at this position won't be too short. Even if there is a rise, there will be entry opportunities in the next 50 days.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely a personal hobby and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) Observe the 3-4 adjustments, provided that it does not fall below 73787 (allowing for new lows, the low point has already reached 76600). The limit is 184 days.
(2) On March 11, a reminder was given that a short-term bottom was reached, leading to a near 10% rebound, which undoubtedly is like receiving free money.
(3) Although currently rising steadily, the situation is not very optimistic. It is best not to drop directly from the highest point to 3210 dollars, otherwise there is a possibility of a failed rally. The current observation point is at 81289.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely personal hobbies and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) On March 11, a reminder was given that a short-term bottom was reached, leading to a near 10% rebound, which undoubtedly is like receiving free money.
(3) Although currently rising steadily, the situation is not very optimistic. It is best not to drop directly from the highest point to 3210 dollars, otherwise there is a possibility of a failed rally. The current observation point is at 81289.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely personal hobbies and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) Watch for 3-4 adjustments, with the premise that it cannot fall below 73787 (breaking 78258 is allowed). The limit is 184 days.
(2) Last time it was mentioned that after the rebound from 81501, there would be at least one more decline, which is currently ongoing.
(3) The current pattern is likely a terminal wedge, in the 4th sub-wave rebound, and there will be one more decline after the rebound ends.
Note: Forecast calculations are purely personal interests and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) Last time it was mentioned that after the rebound from 81501, there would be at least one more decline, which is currently ongoing.
(3) The current pattern is likely a terminal wedge, in the 4th sub-wave rebound, and there will be one more decline after the rebound ends.
Note: Forecast calculations are purely personal interests and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) Look for a 3-4 adjustment, the limit is 184 days, and the current completed entire shape is a platform shape.
(2) The decline from 95000 to 81501 is more in line with the 5-wave impulse, so after the rebound from 81501, there should be at least one more decline. Currently, there are signs close to the end of the upward trend (it seems more reasonable to go once again near 93500 in terms of shape, but there are signs of starting to decline in indicators).
(3) As it is expected to be a 3-4 adjustment, it is determined that it will not break new lows, but there is a high possibility of piercing the last low point of 81501.
Note: Prediction calculations are purely personal hobbies and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) The decline from 95000 to 81501 is more in line with the 5-wave impulse, so after the rebound from 81501, there should be at least one more decline. Currently, there are signs close to the end of the upward trend (it seems more reasonable to go once again near 93500 in terms of shape, but there are signs of starting to decline in indicators).
(3) As it is expected to be a 3-4 adjustment, it is determined that it will not break new lows, but there is a high possibility of piercing the last low point of 81501.
Note: Prediction calculations are purely personal hobbies and do not constitute trading advice.
See original
— Today's Market
(1) Watch for 3-4 adjustments, the limit is 184 days, the entire pattern completed so far is a platform shape.
(2) Yesterday, I mentioned to be cautious around 89000. After breaking below, it continued to decline to around 82500, currently with no signs of stabilizing, be wary of further declines.
(3) If it falls below 81600, the likelihood of a failed rise will increase further.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely personal preferences and do not constitute trading advice.
(2) Yesterday, I mentioned to be cautious around 89000. After breaking below, it continued to decline to around 82500, currently with no signs of stabilizing, be wary of further declines.
(3) If it falls below 81600, the likelihood of a failed rise will increase further.
Note: The predictive calculations are purely personal preferences and do not constitute trading advice.
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