Is Trump's Effect Failing? Why Is This Bull Market Not Following the Script?
I originally thought that Trump's support for cryptocurrency would bring about an unprecedented bull market, but this time the script is completely different. In previous bull markets, altcoins would rise dramatically, with outside funds pouring in aggressively. However, after the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved this time, outside funds are treating Bitcoin like US stocks. In fact, Trump did attract a lot of outside funds, but this money only stayed in the first layer of the US stock market, hardly making it to the second layer like Coinbase, let alone the CEX and DEX that we deal with every day. So now, any stock related to cryptocurrency is rising, Bitcoin is soaring, and stocks like Circle and Coinbase are also skyrocketing. Many funds didn't even think about coming into the crypto space to buy altcoins because the learning curve is high and they can easily fall into traps. A few days ago, a company next door working on carbon neutrality saw us discussing crypto and eagerly asked if there were any stocks related to stablecoins to buy. I told him he could come into the crypto space to buy altcoins related to stablecoins, but he still felt stocks were more reliable. Although the A-shares have a bad reputation, ordinary people trust this more. The US stock market is the same; now the policy encourages crypto, and if there are profit expectations, funds want to enter. In previous bull markets, after Bitcoin reached new highs, the whole network was discussing it, and funds had no choice but to come to the crypto space. If they didn't want to chase high prices for Bitcoin, they could only invest in various altcoins that promise big returns, which is why the wealth effect of altcoins was particularly strong in previous bull markets.
1. Discrepancies in Fed rate cuts are increasing, with Fed officials recently expressing differing views: Barkin believes tariffs will push up inflation, and neutral interest rates may rise; Goolsbee stated that if inflation stabilizes at 2% and uncertainty is removed, the path for rate cuts will open; Daly hinted at potential rate cuts in the fall; Collins believes July's rate cut is premature. The market expects a high probability of a rate cut in September, while a July cut would be an unexpected surprise.
2. The July 9 tariff deadline is approaching, and the White House has confirmed it will not extend the tariff suspension period, leaving the final decision to Trump. If new tariffs are implemented, it could trigger a short-term market decline, so contract traders need to be cautious of risks.
3. SaharaLabsAI's IPO performance has been poor; despite a $600 million FDV doubling at the opening, it has since continued to decline, with high position contract rates reaching -2%, resulting in significant short-selling pressure and severe losses for buyers.
4. PayPal is advancing its stablecoin application; PayPal's CEO stated that they are developing real use cases for stablecoins, which could further promote the expansion of the compliant stablecoin market.
5. Progress in the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit: A U.S. judge has rejected both parties' requests to pause the appeal, demanding a quick ruling. The case still holds uncertainty in its direction.
6. Binance's token delisting has caused volatility; Binance announced the delisting of tokens such as ALPHA and BSW, with BSW surging in the short term, indicating strong market speculation.
7. Yupp AI platform's points mechanism: Backed by a16z, Coinbase, and others, Yupp AI allows users to earn points through ratings, which may be airdropped in the future, although current withdrawal earnings are limited.
8. On-chain meme coins lack hot topics; there have been few speculative targets on-chain in the past 24 hours, and the market currently lacks a clear direction.
The US and Israel join forces to end the Iranian nuclear threat, eliminating a major risk for a bull market, while Bitcoin remains unaffected by Trump's swings, with $110,000 just around the corner!
Today, both the Israeli military chief and Iranian officials confirmed that the US has indeed bombed Iran's nuclear facilities. This effectively marks the end of the war, and the market no longer needs to worry about this thunder. Looking at Bitcoin's trend, it is about to rush to $110,000 soon, so everyone, fasten your seatbelts! Bitcoin is really stable; last night, Trump was erratic, sometimes calling for peace and sometimes declaring war, which scared Ethereum and altcoins half to death, but Bitcoin remained unmoved. From the small cycle K-line, it has been climbing upward all the way, and today during the day, it has again risen above $108,000. Now that the news of the end of the war is confirmed, it is certain to rush towards $110,000 again. The current market resembles the situation when it rushed to a historic high two weeks ago, and since it has already broken through $110,000, this time it will be easier. I guess it will reach that mark by the weekend at the earliest, and by next week at the latest. Once it stabilizes at $110,000, those quality altcoins should see some upward adjustment.
Many people enter this circle with a lot of confidence. At first, they may have good luck and make a lot of money. But later, when the market changes, not only do they lose all their profits, but their principal also diminishes to almost nothing. At this point, they start to panic, only thinking about recovering their losses. Their operations become more and more chaotic, and the more anxious they become, the more mistakes they make, leading to greater losses. In the end, they ask themselves: Can I really turn this around? — To be honest, it's very difficult.
Binance will delist alpha, bsw, kmd, lever, lto today, and then all contracts skyrocketed. When delisting became a good thing? Steady brothers, don't play anymore, who knows what will happen in the next second.
1. Trump's recent comments on the Israel-Iran conflict have been inconsistent; he declared the conflict over while also suggesting it may soon reignite, denying the necessity of an agreement with Iran but planning to meet with them next week. This contradictory stance reflects the volatility of U.S. Middle East policy, and markets need to be wary of recurring geopolitical risks.
2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be "transitory," but caution is still required. He reiterated that monetary policy will not consider the issue of federal debt and acknowledged that the stablecoin industry has gradually matured, which might influence the direction of future financial regulation.
3. U.S. housing regulators plan to push for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept cryptocurrency as collateral for mortgages. If this policy is implemented, it will significantly enhance the financial application scenarios for crypto assets and may stimulate more institutional participation.
4. Following news of "cryptocurrency-backed mortgages," a surge of "House" concept meme coins has emerged on the SOL blockchain, such as #Fathouse and #Chillhouse, with short-term speculative sentiment heating up, but caution is advised due to high volatility risks.
5. Aptos Labs and Jump Crypto have jointly launched ShelbyServes, where users can register their email on the official website. This project may involve decentralized storage or financial services, making it worth long-term attention.
6. Shares of traditional financial institutions like Guotai Junan have surged, driving related crypto concept tokens (like $HSK) to follow suit. However, companies mimicking MicroStrategy's coin-holding strategy (such as SBET and SRM) have already seen corrections, and the market must be wary of valuation bubbles.
7. WLFI has hinted at opening token transfers. If a project with a valuation of $1.5 billion issues on the BNB chain, it may attract market liquidity in the short term, necessitating caution against "Pump & Dump" risks.
8. Kalshi (similar to Polymarket) has completed financing with a valuation of $1 billion, with Paradigm participating, forecasting a new round of growth in the market sector.
9. The Fragmetric Foundation announced an airdrop of FRAG tokens (accounting for 10% of total supply), targeting liquidity providers, active community users, and project holders, which may stimulate short-term staking demand.
10. The project has completed listings on multiple exchanges, and returns for users participating in new token offerings and airdrops can be significant, but caution is necessary regarding market selling pressure.
I think what is worth paying attention to now is $BROCCOLI714 , the market value is already very low, the community and retail investors have almost washed out, it's a good time to get in.
In addition, $BROCCOLIF3B 3b also has a lot of potential, with a market value of less than 10 million, plus the halo of Binance Alpha, it is definitely a good target for speculation, it has basically stopped falling now, and it can be considered to buy the dip.
EGL1 is the concept of usd1, municipal direct 70 million Market heat, posture weight pig degree key pig degree first Fourmeme exchange competition ranked first
Subsequently, there may be support from the Trump family Also expected to go on the alpha sector, pay attention to it
Bitcoin Rises to the 'Central' Level, Who Will Lead the Altcoins?
Over the past few years, the relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins has been like a village chief leading the entire village to start a business and become rich, with everyone sharing in the profits. But now the situation has changed—the Bitcoin "village chief" has been elevated to the "central" level, with a bright future ahead, while those old altcoins are like villagers forgotten in an old village, unable to keep up with the development pace of the crypto world. Last night the U.S. stock market was closed, and the crypto market also went on "holiday." The trading volume in the market has shrunk significantly, and price fluctuations have become lethargic. Bitcoin is now completely following the rhythm of the U.S. stock market, and the worst off are the old altcoins. In the past, everyone could make money together, but now Bitcoin flies high alone, while the old altcoins can only tread water. It's harsh, but this is the reality. The crypto space has indeed been a good place for ordinary people to make a comeback over the past decade, but this window won't stay open forever. Just like the top ten projects in the crypto space in 2013, aside from Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple, the other seven (PPC, NMC, FTC, NVC, XPM, MEC, QRK) have long disappeared without a trace. At this trend, in another two years, 99% of the current projects will meet the same fate—prices will go to zero and be forgotten. Therefore, we must continue to learn, especially after experiencing trends like inscriptions, MEME, and AI Agents; the pace in the crypto space is frighteningly fast, and many so-called "leading projects" can't even last three months. We must seek projects with enduring value and decisively abandon those old coins destined to be eliminated.
$SOL is continuing to consolidate above 140. This prolonged consolidation usually indicates that the subsequent adjustment space is relatively limited. It is recommended that everyone remains on the sidelines in the short term and waits for a clear break below the current consolidation range before considering entry;
$XRP is still maintaining a slight box fluctuation pattern, with neither side showing a clear advantage yet. The direction is still unclear, so it's best to hold back and observe;
$DOGE has already broken below the 0.17 support and is currently probing around 0.16. It is not advisable to enter at this time. First, wait for the adjustment cycle to end and for a trend reversal signal to appear, and consider entering after a clear turning point emerges.
Today I would like to recommend a personal investment that I am quite optimistic about.
$STX is an old coin, and from the daily chart, it has reached a low point. Currently, it seems to have stabilized, so it can be monitored!
This is the first SEC-compliant project. It has contributed 90% to the BTC ecosystem. The market share component is quite high. Combined with Grayscale holding and the new roadmap catalyst.
Additionally, funds in the Bitcoin ecosystem are starting to flow back. The potential for a rebound is still relatively large. At the current price of 0.62, it can be gradually accumulated.
For detailed updates, please follow the subsequent posts.
1. Escalation of Middle East Situation: Israeli Defense Minister clearly stated that "eliminating Khamenei" is one of the military objectives. The Trump administration is negotiating with Iran, but a decision on direct military intervention may be made within two weeks. Israel continues to receive military aid from the United States, but the U.S. Congress has yet to reach a consensus, leading to Trump's recent ambiguous stance.
2. Trump Attacks the Federal Reserve: Trump once again criticized Powell, calling him "a disgrace to America," and demanded a rate cut of 250 basis points, exacerbating the political controversy over monetary policy.
3. SaharaLabsAI New Project Results: The project was oversubscribed by 8 times, with each address receiving less than 300U. It is expected to be listed on exchanges like OKX next week, and investors are advised to proceed with caution.
4. Kraken Chain INK Token Faces Cold Reception: Market attention is low, reflecting the current financing difficulties of some infrastructure projects.
5. TON Ecosystem EVM Chain TacBuild: Offers NFT participation opportunities, but the threshold is high (30TON). The Kaito platform allows "mouth play," suitable for deep players.
6. UPTOP Presale Starts Today: Total supply of 1 billion tokens, 10% raising 1.5 million USD, expected returns of 10 times. Multiple accounts are needed to participate in advance.
7. On-chain Meme Coins Active: GOR soared to a market value of 50 million in two days, becoming a new hot target.
8. Musk's Tweet Causes Chaos: His posted Pepe meme did not form a market consensus, leading to the failure of related meme coin speculation.
9. ETH/Base Chain Meme Gains Institutional Attention: Projects like AROS (Circle's historical IP, market cap 2M) and ISHI (dog-themed, 1.3M) are favored due to their ecological construction potential.
10. Progress of Bitcoin Reserve Bill in Arizona: Passed the Senate and submitted to the House for review. If passed, it will become the second official holding state in the U.S.
11. Units Network Raises 10 Million USD: Nimbus Capital leads the investment, and the funds will be used for AI + blockchain infrastructure development.
6.19 Evening Interpretation: Why Are Altcoins Unable to Outperform Crypto Stocks in This Round of Bull Market?
The market is undergoing subtle changes. The U.S. stock market continues to rise, and the crypto stocks are also following suit, but the altcoins I hold keep declining. This round of bull market was initially driven by institutional funds, and everyone believed that once the price of Bitcoin reached a certain height, funds would naturally flow into the altcoin market. However, just as this critical point was about to arrive, the rules of the market game suddenly changed. Funds that cannot keep up with Bitcoin's surge are starting to change strategies, turning to chase crypto stocks instead. Last night, Circle's stock price surged by 34%, and Coin rose by 16%, with the bull market dividends that should belong to altcoins flowing into the stock market. As various micro-strategy imitations spring up like mushrooms, the remaining funds in the market are being rapidly locked in, making the prospects for native altcoins even dimmer. Now, any altcoin project with ambitions is seeking cooperation with traditional market institutions, either imitating Sun Yuchen's shell listing or collaborating with listed companies to launch reserve plans. After all, resources in the traditional market are limited; pioneers can share the pie, while latecomers may not even get a drop. And those old altcoins that take no action may gradually trend towards zero as the market fluctuates. This round of altcoin market is exceptionally difficult and may become the final settlement of previous altcoin bull markets, marking the official entry of the market into a new era of stock-coin linkage.
1. The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, with the dot plot indicating two possible rate cuts this year, but seven officials expect no rate cuts this year. Powell emphasizes economic uncertainty, while Trump calls for a rate cut of 200-250 basis points.
2. The situation in the Middle East remains tense: Iran refuses to surrender, Russia threatens to intervene in the conflict, and although Trump has approved plans for attacks on Iran, he still leaves room for negotiation, with the core demand being Iran's abandonment of nuclear weapons.
3. Cryptocurrency stocks perform strongly: Circle's stock hits a new high of $200, and Coinbase reaches a peak of $299.32, indicating a positive market outlook for cryptocurrency finance.
4. Trump pushes for the accelerated passage of the stablecoin bill, planning to use stablecoins to purchase government bonds, which is expected to significantly expand the stablecoin market size.
5. The SOL ecosystem is active: Fragmetric NFT is sold out, and Camp Network will open NFT minting tonight (WL 0.01ETH/public sale 0.02ETH).
6. Rotation of on-chain Meme coins: The SOL chain's $GOR (market cap over 7 million) receives Toly's interaction; stablecoin memes like USDP (which reached a market cap of 150 million) and $JPMD (2 million market cap on the Base chain) are gaining attention but are highly volatile.
7. New listings on the South Korean exchange: Upbit lists RAY, and Bithumb will list HUMA and FORT KRW trading pairs, which may trigger short-term market movements.
8. Binance lending adds new assets: TRUMP, S, PNUT, etc., included in flexible rate lending, and HOME, RESOLV open VIP loans.
The market presents a situation of policy watchfulness combined with geopolitical risks, but there are still opportunities in cryptocurrency infrastructure development and on-chain speculation. Investors should pay attention to the Federal Reserve's policy direction and developments in the Middle East, while also being cautious of high-leverage trading risks, and seize structural opportunities in the SOL ecosystem and stablecoins.
Tonight, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is basically set in stone, maintaining the current status without adjustments.
What’s really worth paying attention to is the officials' projections for future interest rates, and which way Powell's mouth really leans. If they hint at potentially lowering rates once or twice next year, or simply hold steady, combined with whether Powell is hawkish or dovish, it could send the market into chaos in no time.
Right now, let's not mess around with the market; focus on short-term trading and take profits when you can. Absolutely avoid getting too attached. Just look at the state of altcoins; they rise for a day and fall for two, clearly showing there’s no fresh capital in the market—whoever has a broader vision ends up unlucky.
There are actually traces to follow to judge whether the market is weakening.
First look at the trend line. If each rebound cannot reach the previous high, it is obvious that the bears are dominant.
Then look at the moving average suppression. The price can never stand on the MA or EMA. Every upward attack is like a deflated ball.
It is also very intuitive to observe the changes in high and low points. If the high point of each rebound is lower than the previous one, and the low point continues to move down, this is a standard falling structure.
The most obvious signal is that the short-term moving average crosses the long-term moving average to form a dead cross. At this time, it can be basically confirmed that the decline has been established.
But remember, seeing the trend is only the basic skill. The key is to rely on strict position control and stop loss discipline. Trading must be done according to the rules. Don't let your emotions lead you! If you are really unsure, click on Sister Ran's avatar!
6.18 Evening Interpretation--Genius Bill Passed, Wall Street Giants Have Laid Out in Advance
Wallets are once again under bombardment. Although Iran is currently so penetrated that it has almost lost its ability to resist, and this one-sided war seems soon to come to an end, Israel is not in a hurry to cease hostilities. Its goal is very clear—not only to pull out the tiger's teeth but also to cut off its limbs to ensure it can never pose a threat again. Israel continues to pressure the United States to provide weapons that can target underground objectives as soon as possible in order to destroy Iran's secret nuclear facilities buried dozens of meters underground. While the Trump administration hopes to end the conflict quickly, it is unwilling to bear military expenses, which is consistent with Trump's usual style—he can call for pressure but is never willing to spend money. Therefore, Trump continues to send messages to Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, claiming that his whereabouts are known and he could be eliminated at any time, attempting to force Iran to surrender unconditionally. However, Khamenei, as an 86-year-old theocratic ruler, has already entered old age, and the threat of death may have little consequence for him. Unless Iran fights until the last soldier, it is unlikely to easily capitulate. If Israel shifts from airstrikes to ground attacks, the situation may become a protracted war like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is exactly what the market least wants to see.