长阳交易日记

So smooth. Just open the position at the pin insertion point 📈
That damn feeling of being pushed back🤣
Keep the bottom position, see you at 105k!

The probability of not lowering interest rates in July according to CME has also declined. The bond and futures markets feel that old Powell is being dovish and believe that his adjustment aims to raise inflation to 2%.
In contrast, the US stock market has shown different expectations, with the Nasdaq and S&P experiencing some degree of pullback after opening, but fortunately, they started to turn positive again later in the night;
This indicates that some investors believe the Federal Reserve may continue to maintain tight monetary policy, leading to a certain level of uncertainty in the market.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate has still not increased, but rather decreased. This indicates that most investors are still uninterested in short-term price changes, even regarding old Powell's speeches. More investors seem to be focused on long-term price trends. After a prolonged period of fluctuation around 102k, a buildup has occurred centered around this level, which can serve as a short-term defensive position.

Two days later, looking back at this route
Just ask, isn’t it awesome? Is it a perfect interpretation of the script!

More and less, all taken in
If you don’t seek anything, then seek popularity! Where are the applause? 😄

About Ethereum:

To put it simply, it is indeed stronger than BTC in this round of market trends. The day before yesterday, it conducted a second test around 2400 and then continued to rebound and strengthen.
From this framework's perspective, it has indeed broken through, but I believe ETH has entered its second phase.

In the previous 📈, there was no divergence, and the current phase may produce a relatively complex structure. If there isn't a good holding cost, the experience may not be very good, so it's not easy to operate at the current price.

Due to insufficient time, similar to Bitcoin, there is currently no better direction. If it approaches 2400 again, it could be a good opportunity to build positions in the medium term.

Regarding the daily line of BTC, why is there a potential 📉 risk?

To put it simply:
The two consolidation zones that started to rise in the early stage lasted for 10 days and 15 days respectively, and finally formed an upward break. If you want to continue to rise, first of all, the time is not enough, not to mention that it is currently giving a weak signal in the small cycle, unless there are some major fundamental benefits.

Secondly, there is a lack of "new stories" to attract funds to enter the market, and tariffs are gradually becoming desensitized!

Another more important point is: the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has reached 4.5 again, which is not good news for the market😅

So at present, we can only pin our hopes on the short-term form to see if a new structure can be established!

The core idea recently is still to see the right-side low point rise, observing whether a new wave structure can be formed. In fact, there has been some weakness appearing in the 1h chart, with the previous uptrend 📈 being suppressed by the trendline, not returning to the previous strong state;

Because in this high-level fluctuation range, both bulls and bears have not experienced a large amount of turnover, and the volume is slightly insufficient, which is not conducive to subsequent breakthroughs. However, there is no need to be pessimistic; at least it won't turn into a weak structure before breaking the previous low point. Let's follow our subjective perception for now.

Bitcoin 101700-101800 has formed a wave, with the previous low point being a support, continuing to look towards 105k.

黄金和BTC市占率的相关性：

1. 黄金是美元资产的金本位，避险资产；而BTC是加密资产的币本位，加密里的避险资产，逻辑是一致的。

2.从2021年5月开始黄金和BTC.D的走势几乎是一致的，黄金下跌，BTC.D下跌，山寨上涨。

3.黄金有周线级别的见顶迹象，这会导致更多的资金转而拥抱风险资产，拥抱山寨！

Stopped the empty position and waited for multiple positions

The prices have dropped, brothers!

🈳It's gone in, nothing much to say
Subjectively still inclined to rebound and build long positions, but we must respect objective facts. Trying a short position near resistance is not a big issue and is very cost-effective.

104200 has been shorted! Target around 102k.

About the mid-cycle of BTC:
Yesterday's 📉 slightly released some volume, and if it continues to close in the red today, it might give rise to the early signs of a reversal.

Let's make the worst-case assumption: even if it does reverse, the probability is high that it won't happen all at once. After establishing a single high point, at least a top signal needs to form.

This means that on its right side, there is a high probability of needing to create another high point or a secondary high to establish the foundational conditions for a reversal, or it may break below the early morning low point;
------
The amount of chips above is not very large, so after reaching a relatively high position, I will be a bit more cautious. It has not sufficiently settled here at the moment, unless it experiences a long period of sideways movement, accumulating enough strength, and then breaks upwards; this is the state I would like to see.

However, there are already signs of weakness in the short term. What needs to be watched is whether the daily K can close in the green tomorrow morning and the breaking of the previous low point. I have updated the detailed plan in the above text, and I will not elaborate further here.
Go! Only benefits!

The short-term structure in the past couple of days has actually been quite in place. BTC rebounded after hitting a standard buying point in the early morning, currently returning above 103k. If we want to establish a new bullish structure, it will likely need to be accompanied by an upward movement of the right-side bottom.
Moreover, there is a trendline resistance above, so it is recommended to wait for a pullback. Exit quickly if it drops, and pay attention to the closing situation tomorrow morning.

Try around 104k, looking at around 102k.
Or wait for 102k to build a bottom.

As expected, buy around 101k to catch the rebound 📈
Prepare to lower the dots, Zhi Ying.

Currently, there is no systemic risk seen in the US stock market, and the same goes for the cryptocurrency market.

Although it may not be well-received, I still want to say:
The current market liquidity is insufficient to support a bull market in the entire cryptocurrency market like in 2021. At most, BTC might experience a slow bear market similar to the gold market over the past 10 years, and whether ETH can replicate this path of BTC may still depend on the thoughts of 'Wall Street'.

PS: I suggest everyone take a closer look at the data on spot ETFs; the buyers of ETFs have a high overlap with the US stock market. While they may also chase up and down, it can be observed that most investors are currently experiencing FOMO sentiment towards the market.

Top-notch, no doubt about it.
Comfortable and easy, that's how strong it is.🤣

Top-notch market feeling😁
Ethereum 2520 is again at the lowest point, no need to say more!
The condition is excessively good, let's see where it can go after the US stock market opens.

Due to the continuous horizontal bottom gradually rising + positive news, as long as the price does not fall below 102k, the overall trend will still be upward. We will still wait for the gap mentioned earlier to be filled before it naturally breaks out of the range!

We are basically at the expected position now, 103700-103800 can be a good point to buy once! Looking to see above 105000.

BTC has recently maintained a high-level consolidation. With the changes in the market, a short-term 📈 trend line has emerged. Throughout the entire oscillation process, there has not been a strong demand for retracement, and the indicators have been digested through consolidation.
If you want to bet on a left-side bearish position, it is essential to see the establishment of structure and signals confirming the bearish trend or to observe the emergence of selling points on the right side!
It is evident that during this period, there have been no favorable adjustments provided, making it difficult to grasp the timing of pullbacks within such a narrow range. The only option is to enter along the lower part of the current channel as a secondary buying point.
A better price would certainly be the starting point of the previous consolidation, but it may not be offered. We should observe and attempt in two stages!
------
Regarding the medium-term:
Currently, we are approaching a strong resistance at historical highs, and I believe it is necessary to issue some risk warnings ⚠️.
In terms of choosing medium-term orders, it actually does not support the trend's breakout space. The reason is simple: the distance from the previous high is only 5000 points. Thus, 109k is a psychological level for the market and also serves as a previous double-top resistance, with substantial selling pressure present. It does not offer much in terms of risk-reward ratio. Therefore, regarding the medium-term view, it might be worth considering building a position in Ethereum.

There is still some base position, hold on and continue to observe.
Emphasizing risk is meaningless, pick a good position, reduce the position after a rise to secure profits, isn't that more substantial than fantasizing about a pullback?

Is Ethereum flipping Solana? This is indeed happening!

In the past week, ETH has significantly outperformed SOL: not only has it risen strongly on its own, but it has also driven a collective explosion of various Ethereum ecosystem memes like Hippo, Pepe, NEIRO, forming an ecological resonance.
On the other hand, SOL's momentum is relatively weak, with a lack of price rebound and facing significant unlocking pressure from large stakes. Related addresses like FTX and Alameda continue to release selling pressure, making it difficult to see strong performance in the short term.
However, this is not just a difference in price; it's also a divergence in ecological rhythm and narrative direction.
------
The core reason is: the meme craze of SOL has become highly PVP-oriented, with a few top users becoming wealthy, but ordinary users are repeatedly hurt in high-frequency games, diluting the ecological foundation. This extreme and short-sighted approach is consuming user trust.

In contrast, Ethereum, once thought to have 'no new accumulation', is welcoming a wave of structural revaluation: American regulators are promoting stablecoin participation in the U.S. debt system, and the RWA market continues to expand. ETH, as the underlying gas asset, will directly benefit from the expansion of this realistic narrative. This is a narrative that does not harm users, is sustainable, and allows for profit-sharing, making it suitable for long-term capital entry!
------
Ethereum is currently attempting to steadily flip SOL with a threefold momentum of 'price trend + inclusive narrative + new track explosion'. This is not a short-term speculative victory, but a systematic ecological overtaking.
If the current market can stabilize and continue, it may welcome a very good turning point.