长阳Crypto

The small cycle operates around the upper half of the channel, following a conventional high-level fluctuation. The previous high point continues to act as a turnover pressure + horizontal resistance.
The upper edge of the wedge has stabilized twice, but a false breakout occurred earlier, so the validity of this structure will weaken...

The right shoulder high point of the 4-hour head and shoulders pattern has moved down, increasing uncertainty for BTC here. If it can't break higher, there is a probability of testing the neckline area downwards, making it difficult to navigate here. At least from a technical pattern perspective, it appears this way.
At this stage, the focus is on trial and error, attempting small buying points.
The lower level of 106.5k serves as the main accumulation position.

Compliance is a good thing, but let's take a closer look. Is it compliant for the exchange to allow mainland users to enter?
To be both a referee and a player while daring to confront head-on, I feel that this approach is a bit extreme.

At least we don't have to worry about safety issues; the road to compliance inevitably involves various restrictions, and during the adjustment process, the user base will definitely change, and some users who are sensitive to compliance will inevitably be lost.

There are many people watching the top, pulling in this little bit can explode to a hundred million. In fact, BTC has really not dropped much in the past two days, not even 3%. With a good fundamental background, deep corrections are not supported.

Especially since ETH takes a large share, everyone talks about being E sentinels, but in reality, they're all secretly making holes, right?
Regardless, the phase target of 2480-2580 has already been reached, so let's get back in after a correction.

Quite smooth, the pancake's 1097-1076 and Ethereum's 2480-2560, the entry and exit are just right

Reduced positions twice at a high level, maintaining a bottom position
The medium to long-term target remains unchanged!
Is it exactly the same as what was deduced in the video the day before yesterday, brothers?

The pancake has accumulated a maximum of 2149m in funds over the past 3 days, and today there are only about 1400m left, with one third having fled. Almost all spot positions have run away....
This was also the expectation given from the BTC premium index yesterday, with long-term chips choosing to exit around 110k. Next, it will be about repeatedly buying at low prices, washing until you doubt the authenticity of the bull market before continuing to push up.

The contract funds for Ether are left at about half, this time moving in the same direction as the main force, which is a rare pattern. To be honest, I'm already looking forward to next week's trend, and I am optimistic about ETH.

It is currently uncertain whether BTC has stopped falling. It may shift from the original wedge pattern to a rectangular oscillation. The short-term movement is quite complex, but the overall direction remains unchanged, looking towards breaking the previous high.

Ethereum has adjusted more deeply, testing the midline and then falling almost exactly. Furthermore, the movement during this period has been relatively regular. The lower level is still focused on the 4-hour resonance support, which also serves as the neckline area of the head and shoulders bottom.
The basic logic is explained clearly in the video, observing how the rebound strength reacts after the demand.

Buy at 2500/2490
tp: above 2580
Entertainment sharing, for reference only.

The short-term competition is intense. Momentum is slightly slowing down, but it still accompanies the trend line raising the lows, and there is a potential head and shoulders pattern in the small cycle...
Now we need to pay attention to whether the right-side low breaks below 108k. If it maintains this strong volatility during the day, my short position might exit early, after all, repeated temptations can't hold up for long~

Also about last night's non-farm data:
It has dampened the market's expectations for loose monetary policy, and at the same time, the 'Beautiful Big Bill' has basically passed, just waiting for Trump’s signature. The short-term benefits have basically been realized, and the market needs a new topic that can attract enough attention for speculation to have the momentum to completely break into the 110k range.

Today is also quite coincidental, as BTC approaches this round number, it's American Independence Day. The US stock market is closed!
Gambling enthusiasts are betting wildly, guessing high or low, repeatedly getting tricked. There are too many underlying factors pushing it; the current technical patterns feel less effective, so I’ll just continue to lay flat.

The current stage is quite repetitive, with a final bottom test before the rise. Ethereum is actually okay; it found support around the 2400 level and then rose to 2600, achieving the phase target.

However, Bitcoin has a deeper pullback, forming a structure that breaks down before rising again, and the defense isn't strong, so this short-term BTC trade swept away my profits. Quite a pity 😅

Here, we have a pullback from the top selling area. This route was actually indicated in the early hours of the day before yesterday, barely meeting expectations. But considering it has already tested the bottom, it's quite difficult to drop to 104 or 106 now, unless the data is sparse tonight.

Once it rebounds to the selling area, we will follow the original plan.
Above 109k is resistance, looking down to around 107k.

Is trading cryptocurrencies the same?
Whenever something happens in this world, the crypto world can always relate to it and even has to pay the price for it.

Last night, it broke through the short-term convergence structure, and after completing a second pullback in the early morning, it continued to rise to a high point, belonging to the structural confirmation stage. However, attention should still be paid to the plundering situation around 109k above.

On the weekly chart, with a large bullish candle closing below, the strength of the bulls is undoubtedly strong, but there has not yet been a clear breakout signal from the upper range. Therefore, it is currently only determined that a new bullish structure has formed in the small cycle, and a larger level of 📈 is not optimistic. We need to observe the breakout situation of the upper range, and it specifically needs to shift from small to large, giving a signal before following the trend.

In the previous consolidation at the top, BTC had a high turnover, with the yellow area serving as short-term chip suppression. The price reaching this range looks unchanged for a downward pullback.
The resistance area needs to undergo chip exchange ➕ wash away floating speculative positions, so the main force will digest the potential pressure above through narrow fluctuations. It is very likely that there will be another move up, and the bears should wait and not rush; if the position isn’t right, don’t act.

The main view is to make a false breakout to the selling area and then retract
(as shown in the figure) which will align better with the liquidity aspect.
So at this stage, it is first long then short.
Short target: 107k. TP: above 109k.
Entertainment sharing. For reference only~

Reviewing the past few weeks:
The main narrative has been favorable with the stablecoin bill, which hasn't provided much lifeblood to the crypto space, all the excitement has been in the stock market.

The negative news has been the Israel-Palestine war, with BTC dropping every time it escalates...
Starting this week, the main narrative will likely shift to the Great Beauty bill!
Having Trump around is just fantastic! 😂

This week just opened, BTC is testing the previous wave's high point. It seems to have risen a lot, but in reality, it is still fluctuating within a range of two points...
Here, we are looking at liquidity raids on 109k, and we need to observe price behavior; it would be best if a spike occurs.

There are many accumulated shorts, no need to rush in. Weak market conditions lead to repeated fluctuations and games, and it will always move in a direction that is easier to navigate.
Currently, this structure tends to accumulate short liquidity through long-term fluctuations, ultimately achieving a breakthrough through liquidation!

The short-term space is roughly expected to be just below 110k.
Waiting for opportunities, brothers.

BTC has been fluctuating here for four to five days, and unexpectedly rallied on Sunday
(It may also be stimulated by positive news from the futures market)

It's showing a relatively strong fluctuation; the short leverage accumulated here is almost enough, so a spike upwards is reasonable.
Another point is that the accumulated funds for Bitcoin are still present, but Ethereum has basically escaped, so the rebound for ETH lacks strength...

Currently, I still hold a bit of a base position, waiting for a better opportunity, and will follow up for confirmation after leaving the range.

It has been oscillating here for two days, slowly raising prices to digest the previous profits, and it's a bit awkward as it can't go up or down...
The 108k level has been tested several times without establishing a solid upward trend. I don't know if this is a short squeeze market that's declining sideways; we probably have to wait until next Monday's opening for direction. This complex adjustment is quite difficult to participate in.

Fortunately, it hasn't broken through the previous swing high, so there is still a potential secondary peak expectation for BTC at this position. Now, we are observing the structural confirmation point of the previous high and the consolidation starting point at 104k below.
If it pulls back down without a significant break, it still maintains the current bullish arrangement. If the breakout fails, we need to be wary of the right shoulder pattern on the 4-hour chart;

Currently, there is no second confirmation of a breakout at a high point, nor do we see a retest of the support below.

So at this stage, the core logic remains steadfastly bearish.
To be honest, the cost of trial and error is just this little bit 🤏🏻
For those still holding on, shout out to the bears! 😁

Ethereum has strengthened a bit today, feeling like it's not following the big brother anymore, and it has been shrinking in volume these past two days. I wonder if there will be any signs of a pump and dump?
The selling pressure is still quite heavy, after all, the foundation is also selling. When will Bitcoin adjust properly, and when can we consider building a position in Ethereum:

BTC is currently passively bearish, after all, not on the bullish train. Although the entry price isn't bad, it still feels like it's being roasted over fire...
Last night, I was notified to reduce a portion near 1067, glad I didn't get greedy, otherwise, I would have faced a pullback again🤣
Of course, I subjectively hope for a downward retest to 104k for a second confirmation, but that is also based on the premise that Trump isn't just talking nonsense!

I already emphasized the mid-cycle perspective the day before yesterday.
Similar to the wedge consolidation from March to November last year, we are now testing the upper range, definitely a selling zone～
So based on the technical formation, a short-term pullback is reasonable. If you don't act, you'll never find a good deal, but that's not the purpose of shipbuilding.

The view remains unchanged, looking successively at 106k/104k
For reference only

BTC is exceptionally strong today with strong continuity, and the strong horizontal resistance has been easily broken through, with no obvious pullback in sight.

I’m feeling anxious because I haven't gotten in yet!
After a volume spike pulling up from the bottom, the adjustment wasn't sufficient, so I’ve been hesitant to act since yesterday.

Currently, we are at the upper range of the medium-term wedge structure, which was highlighted as a selling zone in the last video. So at this position, let's first look for a short-term pullback, and then observe the testing situation in the lower conversion area.

Near 1077, watch out, regular dip.
Look at the 106-104 area below 📉

BTC maintains a volatile upward trend
1h tested the liquidity high point of 106.5K
(Failure to break could present potential short opportunities)

The larger pattern is a wedge with an internal consolidation pullback followed by a rebound, validating the lower support to continue challenging previous high levels, which can also be treated as a continuation of the upward trend.

If it continues to oscillate upwards during the day, the focus should shift to around 108K. As long as it stays above 103K, the structure is still considered valid. Try to avoid participating in the middle area; a good hunter must also be a good guardian.

This morning, we directly recovered to 106k, almost fully reversing the weekly K chart's decline, and Trump's rhetoric has improved.
After all, now saying there's a ceasefire has led to a positive rally, but in the short term, we still prioritize fluctuations. If there are no other negative impacts, this tail wave is basically complete; it just depends on which time point we continue to rise.

Firstly, if interest rates are cut in July, there is no doubt that 98k has already become a temporary bottom. In that case, we won't consider testing 96k, and the probability of challenging the upper edge of the wedge is relatively high.

Secondly, still from the perspective of liquidity:
The fluctuation range of 100k-110k has already seen some plundering at the bottom. Regardless of whether it's news or emotional impact, at least we've been to this position.
So after stabilizing at the 106k boundary, we still look upward towards 110k. Following the market is always the right choice; isn't our logic for previous short positions based on this foundation?

Currently, the biggest reason for a decline is the continued fighting without a ceasefire. If there’s a domestic attack in the beautiful country, then just wait for a plunge...
What does everyone think?

As for how it will specifically go in the short term, I still need to ponder a bit more. I'll discuss it in detail with everyone in the video later.

Bitcoin Public Script Fulfilled 🙋🏻‍♂️
102k-99k📉
Delicious~ Reached the first target. No need for more words!

After three consecutive waves, you've enjoyed it, right?
So next, 96k goodbye?

Recently, due to a contraction in liquidity, repeated cleaning of high leverage positions has led to a continuous reduction in the shadow lines from the daily chart perspective. In the range of 101k-96k, there is no accumulation of support, which is more favorable for the main force's control, making it significantly more challenging in the short term...

Last night saw a surge in volume with a pin bar, temporarily releasing the bearish momentum. After a pullback to the lower edge of the wedge, BTC formed a clear support-resistance exchange at 102k. A controversial point here is whether it provided a bottom signal in the early morning!

To establish a long position, two prerequisite conditions must be met;
First, it must stabilize above 102k and show structural confirmation
(for example, breaking out, then pulling back to rebound and taking out the previous high)
Secondly, a volume breakout above 103k + price closing above the 4-hour entity

There’s not much to say about the larger cycles; just look at the chart and feel it.
If the moving averages can’t hold, a deep correction is likely, but the probability is extremely low, so let’s keep that expectation here.

For those looking to catch the bottom, it’s better to observe first; there's no need to rush without a clear pattern.
At this stage, it’s still mainly about testing and error in the direction of the trend.
102k continues to be a key level; look for regular opportunities around 99k-96k.