5.2 Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market Trends: The Bull-Bear Tug of War and Opportunity Capture Behind the European Trading Session
I. Technical Analysis of the European Trading Session: Is it a Consolidation Accumulation or a Trend Reversal? During today's European trading session, Bitcoin's price formed key support around the $96,000 level, with intra-day volatility narrowing to within 3%. The candlestick pattern shows that after breaking the psychological barrier of $100,000 in mid-April, the market maintained a combination of 'long upper shadow + solid bullish candle' for three consecutive days, indicating a dynamic balance between selling pressure above and buying support. For Ethereum, the $1,800 support level has been validated again, with the hourly RSI indicator oscillating in the overbought range of 65-70, indicating a coexistence of short-term technical correction demand and buying resilience.
Long-term Driving Factors: Policy Dividends and Technological Innovation Resonance Policy Catalysts: The U.S. Treasury's draft cryptocurrency regulatory framework is about to be released, and the market anticipates that the rollout of the 'federal cryptocurrency license' will accelerate the entry of traditional financial institutions. If the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan' proposed by the Trump administration is implemented, it could trigger a wave of sovereign fund allocation. The negotiations to extend the transitional period for the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) have hit a deadlock, which may lead to increased compliance costs for European exchanges and short-term regional liquidity differentiation.
Operational Suggestions
Trend Following Strategy: Bitcoin sees $96,000 as the dividing line between bullish and bearish positions; if it stabilizes during the day, one can enter with a light position, targeting the $98,500-$100,000 range, with a stop loss set below $94,000.
For Ethereum, focus on the $1,850-$1,900 support zone; if it breaks above the $2,000 level, one can increase their position to chase the upward trend, with a defense line set at $1,780.
Risk Warning: The volatility in the expectations of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's June meeting may lead to unusual movements in the dollar index, and one must be cautious of macro risks transmitting to the cryptocurrency market. The outcome of the U.S. SEC's second trial regarding Ripple may trigger disputes over cryptocurrency securities classification, as short-term policy uncertainties remain.
The morning Bitcoin trend continues to follow the expected rhythm. Although the pullback hasn't reached the ideal range, it aligns with the robust characteristics of the bullish trend. Since our positioning, we have closely adhered to the core strategy of buying at low levels, repeatedly capturing segment profits within the oscillating range, which highlights the significant advantage of trading in the direction of the trend. The current technical framework maintains healthy development: the daily level shows a step-wise ascending pattern, with each pullback quickly reclaimed, demonstrating the main force's control ability; in the 4-hour cycle, the candlesticks are moving orderly along the short-term moving average system, the MACD indicator shows a golden cross expanding, and the volume bars continue to release red signal bars.
The short-term structure shows that the price of the coin has formed a strong support platform at the 98500 level. If it can stabilize at this position in the afternoon, it is expected to further challenge the integer level of 99800-100000.
Operational suggestion: Investors who already hold long positions in the 96000 range can reduce their positions by 30% at the current price, with the remaining position setting a trailing stop loss at 98500, targeting the upper resistance level; those who have not entered the market can add positions when the coin price stabilizes in the 98500-98800 area during pullbacks, with a uniform stop loss set below 98000.
Regarding Ethereum, it continues to maintain a correlated upward pattern. Pay attention to the breakout situation of the 1840-1860 oscillating range during the day. If it stabilizes above 1860, it can be viewed as a new round of rally signal, at which point additional long positions can target the psychological level of 2000.
Be cautious, as there is a possibility of market volatility on Friday, and it is advised to strictly control position leverage and use dynamic take profit measures to cope with potential fluctuations.
The long position strategy laid out last night has once again validated the market's resilience. Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a retracement after breaking through the $97,000 level, but quickly stabilized around the support level of $96,122 in the morning, then rebounded to $97,260, realizing a profit margin of a thousand points. This article combines technical analysis and market sentiment to interpret the current market direction and operational ideas.
1. Market Review and Trend Analysis Bitcoin (BTC): Yesterday's daily line closed with a solid bullish candle, breaking through the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range, and the 4-hour chart shows consecutive bullish patterns. The price briefly retraced to confirm support at the mid-line after touching $97,000, and the upper boundary has shifted to $99,000. Short-term indicators like MACD show a continued golden cross, while RSI is neutrally strong (52), indicating that bullish momentum has not diminished. Ethereum (ETH): Similarly, it has formed a rebound pattern from the bottom, with a strong bullish daily candle and limited retracement. The hourly chart shows a strong support zone formed in the $1,830-$1,800 range, with short-term resistance to watch at the $1,900 level. The SKDJ indicator shows that after correcting the overbought area, there is still potential for upward movement.
2. Key Driving Factors Technical Breakthrough: BTC effectively held the psychological level of $96,000, triggering market followers to enter, with increased volume indicating the establishment of a reversal trend. Market Sentiment: There are clear signs of continuous inflows from institutional funds. CoinDesk data shows a net inflow of $120 million yesterday, driving short-term premiums up. Macroeconomic Expectations: After the dovish Federal Reserve minutes were released, the US dollar index has been weakly fluctuating, providing safe-haven premium space for crypto assets.
3. Operational Strategy Bitcoin: Long position range: Accumulate long positions in batches during the retracement of $96,700-$96,200, with a stop loss at $95,500 and a target of $98,800-$99,000.
Short position plan: If it breaks through $99,000, one can chase long to $100,000, with a stop loss at $98,500; if it faces pressure at $99,000, one can lightly short with a target looking back at $98,000.
Ethereum: Long position range: Enter the $1,820-$1,800 range, with a stop loss at $1,780 and a target of $1,900, looking for a breakout to $1,950.
Risk Control: If ETH breaks below the $1,800 support, then adjust the strategy to focus on the $1,760-$1,780 oscillation range.
Analysis of Big Cake and Aunt (ETH) market conditions after April 30, maintaining a primary tone of fluctuation and adjustment.
Big Cake (BTC) Market Analysis
Short-term Structure: The 4-hour level is still in a converging triangle fluctuation range, with upper pressure in the 95000-96000 area and lower support in the 94000-93500 area. The hourly chart shows the coin price fluctuating around the middle track, with frequent alternation of long and short positions, but unable to break through key resistance/support levels. Technical indicators (such as MACD, KDJ) are pointing down in the short term, suggesting further pullback risk around 94000, but beware of a quick rebound (such as the TD9 structure suggesting potential rebound at 4/8 AM).
Operation Strategy: Intraday short-term: Maintain high sell low buy in the 95000-94000 range, after breaking through, lightly follow the trend to chase orders (stop loss 200-300 points).
Key Level Game: If it touches near 96000, try a short position, target 94500-94000; if it breaks below 94000, short-term support to watch is 93500, if broken look towards 93000.
Aunt (ETH) Market Analysis
Short-term Structure: The hourly chart shows a fluctuation range of 1810-1785, with upper pressure at 1810-1830 and lower support at 1780-1750. There is a risk of a top divergence at the 15-minute level, with a high probability of a short-term pullback, but breaking below 1750 may trigger further decline to 1700. Mid-term Trend: The exchange rate has broken the daily upward trend line, with a continuation of the weak pattern and lack of strength in rebounds. Focus on the battle for long and short positions in the 1750-1800 range.
Operation Strategy: Intraday short-term: Lightly short near 1810, stop loss at 1830, target 1780-1750; if breaking below 1750, can chase shorts to 1700, stop loss at 1770.
Long Position Opportunity: If quickly pulling back to 1780-1750 finds support, can take a short position, target 1810-1830 (strict stop loss at 1730).
The morning long strategy was perfectly realized, the precise judgment of the low position in the morning led to decisive layout of long positions successfully captured a space of 946 points and exited [celebrate][celebrate][celebrate]#SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 $BTC #币安Alpha上新 #Strategy增持比特币
Continue to maintain morning thoughts Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin fell back under pressure above 95,000 as expected, starting a retracement adjustment from the 95,400 line, with a morning low touching around 93,900. Overall, it maintained a box fluctuation pattern between 93,000 and 96,000. Recently, the market has shown typical range consolidation characteristics in the absence of significant news and macro narratives for support, with the larger bullish trend in the technical structure remaining unchanged, but short-term momentum is insufficient, leading to limited intraday fluctuations. If following a high sell and low buy strategy, one could gain swing profits at both ends of the range.
2. Technical Analysis Daily Level: Bitcoin is still in a high-level fluctuation and repetition phase, with the MA200 moving average (currently around 92,000) providing strong support. The MACD indicator in the attached chart maintains a golden cross, but the red bar momentum is shrinking, suggesting that bulls need to accumulate strength. 4-Hour Cycle: Prices fluctuate along the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the KDJ indicator is consolidating near the 50 axis, indicating unclear short-term direction. The area below 93,000-93,500 forms a dense support zone, while the resistance above is at 95,500-96,000.
3. Operational Strategy Suggestion Intraday Main Strategy
Continue the high sell and low buy approach, key operation for long positions: Build positions in batches in the area of 93,000-93,500, stop loss at 92,000, target 95,500-96,000.
Short position area: Lightly enter near 96,000, stop loss at 96,500, target 94,000 breakout follow-up: If effectively breaking through 96,000, then look up at 98,000; if breaking below 92,000, then turn to bearish thinking #币安Alpha上新 #Strategy增持比特币 #SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批
Yesterday, the Bitcoin price fell back as expected, under pressure above 95,000. It started to retract from the 95,400 level, reaching a low of around 93,900 in the morning, maintaining an overall range of 93,000-96,000 in a box-like oscillation pattern. Recently, the market has shown typical range consolidation characteristics due to the lack of significant news and macro narrative support. The larger technical structure remains in a bullish trend, but the short-term momentum is insufficient, leading to limited intraday volatility. If following a high sell-low buy strategy, one can obtain swing profits at both ends of the range.
2. Technical Analysis Daily Level: Bitcoin is still in a high-level oscillation phase. The MA200 moving average (currently around 92,000) provides strong support, and the MACD indicator maintains a golden cross, but the red histogram's momentum is shrinking, suggesting that bulls need to build strength. 4-hour cycle: Prices oscillate along the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the KDJ indicator is near the 50 axis, indicating unclear short-term direction. The area of 93,000-93,500 forms a dense support zone below, while resistance is at 95,500-96,000 above.
3. Operational Strategy Suggested Main Strategy for the Day
Continue to follow the high sell-low buy idea, focusing on positional trades. Long position area: Build positions in batches between 93,000-93,500, stop loss at 92,000, target at 95,500-96,000.
Short position area: Lightly enter near 96,000, stop loss at 96,500, target at 94,000. Follow-up on breakouts: If it effectively breaks above 96,000, then look to 98,000; if it drops below 92,000, shift to a bearish mindset.
On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency market continued its volatile pattern, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) maintaining daily fluctuations within a thousand-point range, exhibiting box-like oscillation characteristics. The morning strategy recommended high short positions after the market rebound, with short-term operations focused on the edges of the range. Although the cumulative profits from each operation were limited, the compounding effect was significant. Current technical structure shows that BTC has encountered resistance as it continuously rebounds to the 95500-96000 area, with bullish momentum weakening, but the support below is solid and the lows are rising (e.g., 93000-93500), indicating that the market has entered a typical bullish correction phase. The extension of the oscillation cycle is beneficial for solidifying the bottom foundation and building momentum for the subsequent trend.
The market is currently in a technical recovery window, with frequent switches between long and short positions for Bitcoin, while overall maintaining an upward trend framework. The extension of the oscillation cycle helps to digest short-term overbought pressure and solidify the bottom structure. Investors need to focus on key support and resistance levels, primarily engaging in range trading, while also being alert to potential disruptions to the market from global macro risks (such as interest rate policies and geopolitical events). From a medium-term perspective, if BTC can effectively stabilize above 93000, the probability of breaking new highs in the future still exists.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: The hourly chart shows a rhythm of oscillation and upward movement, with rising lows constituting bullish correction characteristics, maintaining range operation logic before breaking out.
Trading Suggestions:
High Short Strategy: Light short positions when rebounding to the 95000-95500 area, stop loss above 96000, target 93000-93500.
Low Long Strategy: Gradually accumulate long positions when retracing to the 93000-93500 range, stop loss below 92500, target 95000-95500.
Breakout Response: If there is an effective breakout above 96000 or a drop below 92500, adjust the direction accordingly and pay attention to trend continuation signals.
Ethereum Technical Analysis: Resistance level: 1830-1850 (core pressure zone for the day) Support level: 1700-1730 (defensive range below)
Trend Judgment: In sync with BTC rhythm, focus on selling high and buying low in the short term, and adjust strategy after breaking above 1850 or dropping below 1700.
Trading Suggestions: Range operation: short positions under pressure in the 1830-1850 area, stop loss at 1870, target 1700-1730; after stabilizing upon retracing to the support zone, take long positions, stop loss at 1680, target near 1830.
Yesterday evening's prediction suggested a bullish target near 93000 for Bitcoin, looking towards 95000, which has successfully been reached. As always, it's a matter of validating the thought process ahead of the market's movements.
Without further ado, let's look at today's content.
Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin rebounded above 94000, reaching near the previous support point, with the market showing a pattern of narrow adjustments at high levels. Combining technical analysis with recent trends, the current market remains primarily in a continuation of the oscillation range.
Technical Analysis:
Daily Level: The oscillation range remains unbroken, with resistance on rebounds.
After several days of fluctuation, the daily price of Bitcoin has once again touched the critical resistance level of 96000 but has not formed an effective breakthrough. Recently, the price has consistently oscillated around the 90000-95500 range, indicating that the market's tug-of-war between bulls and bears is still ongoing. The daily MACD indicator shows a narrowing convergence, while the KDJ three lines are turning down from a high position, suggesting insufficient upward momentum in the short term and a need for a pullback.
Ethereum (ETH) is also under pressure.
Ethereum's movements are correlated with Bitcoin, with the current price hovering in the 1815-1830 range. The four-hour chart shows that after breaking below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, the rebound was hindered, with the MACD forming a death cross and the green bars expanding, indicating short-term bearish dominance. Key support is noted at the 1750 line; if broken, it may exacerbate the downward space.
Operational Suggestions:
Bitcoin High Short Entry Point: Enter light short positions in the 95200-95500 range.
Target: Around 93500 (if broken, can look down to 92000) Stop loss: Above 96000 (to prevent sudden breakthroughs).
Ethereum Synchronize High Short Entry Point: Enter short positions in the 1815-1830 range.
Target: Around 1750 (if broken, can look down to 1720).
Yesterday evening's forecast suggested a bullish target near 93,000 with a view to reach 95,000, which has now been successfully achieved. As always, every time is a verification of the idea ahead of the market.
Without further ado, let's look at today's content.
Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin rebounded again to above 94,000, reaching near the previous starting point, with the market showing a pattern of narrow adjustments at high levels. Combining technical analysis with recent trends, the current market primarily continues in a range of fluctuations.
Technical Analysis:
Daily Level: Range not broken, rebound under pressure.
After several days of pulling, Bitcoin's daily chart has once again touched the critical resistance level of 96,000, but has not formed an effective breakthrough. Recently, the price has been oscillating around the 90,000-95,500 range, indicating that the market's long and short battles are still ongoing. The daily MACD indicator has contracted and is consolidating, while the KDJ three lines have turned down from a high position, suggesting insufficient upward momentum in the short term, with a need for a pullback.
Ethereum (ETH) is under similar pressure.
The price movement of Ethereum is correlated with Bitcoin, currently hovering in the range of 1,815-1,830. The four-hour chart shows that after breaking below the middle Bollinger band, the rebound was hindered, with MACD forming a death cross and green bars expanding, indicating short-term bearish dominance. Support below is focused on the 1,750 level; if it breaks, it could exacerbate the downside.
Operational Suggestions:
For Bitcoin: High short entry points are in the range of 95,200-95,500 for light short positions.
Target: Around 93,500 (if it breaks, can look down to 92,000). Stop loss: Above 96,000 (to prevent sudden breakthroughs).
For Ethereum: Simultaneous high short entry points are in the range of 1,815-1,830 for short positions.
Target: Around 1,750 (if it breaks, can look down to 1,720).
Yesterday evening's forecast provided a long target near 93000 for Bitcoin, looking towards 95000, which has now been successfully reached. It's still the same saying: every time, the ideas are ahead and the market follows.
Without further ado, let's look at today's content.
Yesterday, the Bitcoin price rebounded again above 94000, reaching near the previous starting point, with the market showing a pattern of narrow adjustments at high levels. Combining technical analysis and recent trends, the current market still primarily continues within a range of fluctuations.
Technical Analysis:
Daily Level: The fluctuation range has not been broken, and rebounds are under pressure.
The daily chart of Bitcoin, after several days of pulling, once again touched the critical resistance level of 96000 but failed to form an effective breakthrough. Recently, the price has been fluctuating around the range of 90000-95500, indicating that the market's tug-of-war between bulls and bears is still ongoing. The daily MACD indicator is showing a contraction and convergence, while the KDJ three lines have turned down from a high position, suggesting insufficient upward momentum in the short term and a need for a pullback.
Ethereum (ETH) is also under pressure.
The price movement of Ethereum is correlated with Bitcoin, with the current price hovering around the range of 1815-1830. The four-hour chart shows that after the price fell below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, the rebound was blocked. The MACD has formed a death cross and the green bars are expanding, indicating a short-term bearish advantage. The support below is focused on the line of 1750; if it breaks down, it could exacerbate the downward space.
Operation Suggestions:
Bitcoin Long-term layout entry point: Light short positions between 95200-95500
Target: Around 93500 (if it breaks, it could look down to 92000) Stop-loss: Above 96000 (to prevent sudden breakthroughs)
Ethereum Synchronous high short entry point: Short positions between 1815-1830
Target: Around 1750 (if it breaks, it could look down to 1720)
Bitcoin: It is recommended to continue holding long positions, with the stop-loss adjusted to $90,500 and a target of $94,000-$95,000; if it falls below $88,500, then shift to a wait-and-see approach.
Ethereum: Current long positions can be held, pay attention to the breakout at $1,780, if it stabilizes, then increase the position to around $1,830, with a stop-loss set at $1,680.