子歌

#BTC#ETHrebound is brewing, don’t be too pessimistic and wait for the flowers to bloom. The surge in the oracle market represents the growth of on-chain demand. In the long run, we are in a bull market, and the adjustment and shock stage is a good time to make arrangements.

#BTC #link
I don’t know how many people are short-term in this wave, but what trading needs more is to pay attention to yourself.

Just like the main wave in January this year, not many people would believe it. It wasn’t long before I wrote the recommendation. I kept pushing and calling for the bottom. I even sent private messages to my friends to buy the bottom. But I’m not sure how many people actually bought the bottom.

Just like this time, it started out as fake news, but it turned out to be real. I guess there were fewer people on the bus this time. Fortunately, my good friends and I gave Zi Ge a strategy, so I drove more seats this time. Around 28200, I wish everyone fortune.

#BTC #ETH
Even a trader with many years of trading training will be affected by subjective assumptions and misjudge the market.

Let's take a look at the two particularly classic "fake news" market trends in the past year. When the market fluctuates greatly, it is difficult for traders not to enter the market, because fluctuations create profits, and the consequences of entering the market are basically explosive. warehouse closing

One is the rumored acquisition of FTX by Binance on November 9, 2022, which was later rejected. The second is the news that the Bitcoin ETF was passed on October 17, 2023, which was later confirmed as false news.

What the two news have in common is that there is a huge amount of up and down market movements, and at the critical time when the trend is about to reverse, it is difficult for traders who follow the trend not to enter the market, let alone ordinary retail investors facing huge fluctuations. Participant

People can never be objective and calm all the time - because the joy, anger, sorrow and joy of the moment are already the whole meaning of life, and this is the wonderful thing about the world. Let’s take a look at the two unhuman openings of the program. Only the program can be objective and cold-blooded

#DXY The U.S. dollar index, which we are most worried about, is currently moving in a worse direction.

After successfully getting rid of the descending triangle on the weekly line, it chose to go upward. This is the worst trend for the global capital market, especially risk assets will face greater pressure on the U.S. index.

Judging from the trend, global traders still expect that the Federal Reserve has not completed raising interest rates, and the U.S. index continues to rise, which is bound to slow down the rise of various financial assets.

In hindsight, the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate of 4.34% in October 2022 and 4.1% in March 2023 may not be the “correct” frame of reference. Because economic fundamentals and the end point of the Fed's interest rate hikes clearly exceeded consensus expectations at the time, we cannot go back to history to correct mistakes.

A review of the shape of the 10-year U.S. bond yields in the 12 times the Federal Reserve raised interest rates since 1958 shows that the high point of the 10-year U.S. bond interest rates this time appeared "too early."

A review of the U.S. economic cycle and monetary policy history over the past 60 years will reveal that during the period when the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes, U.S. bond interest rates generally showed three forms: (1) downward trend; (2) upward fluctuation; (3) high and volatile (W type).

Among them, trend decline dominates, followed by upward fluctuations, and finally high shocks. Combining the economic fundamentals and the Federal Reserve's policy stance, we can see that inflation is the core conflict and financial risk events are important turning point signals.

Overseas events & data: U.S. consumption growth in July exceeded expectations, Japan's core inflation rebounded U.S. consumption growth in July exceeded expectations. U.S. retail sales in July recorded a month-on-month growth rate of 0.7%, which was expected to be 0.4%. The year-on-year growth rate was 3.2%, compared with the previous value of 1.6%. The growth rates of both goods and food services improved, with food services rising to 12% year-on-year, up from 9.5% in the previous year, and retail sales of goods rising to 2% year-on-year, down from 0.5% in the previous year. The growth rate of automobile consumption among durable goods has improved, with a growth rate of 7.4% in July, compared with 5.8% in the previous month. The month-on-month growth rate of non-durable goods has generally improved.

Japan's headline inflation was unchanged from the previous reading in July, but super core inflation rebounded. Japan's CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in July, unchanged from the previous reading. Core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, down from the previous value of 3.3%, in line with expectations. "Super core CPI," which excludes food and energy prices, rose 4.3% year-over-year, up from 4.2% in the previous month. Service CPI growth rate increased from 1.6% to 2%.

U.S. housing starts and building permits rebounded. The U.S. NAHB housing market index fell back to 50 in August from a previous reading of 56, marking its first decline this year. The number of new housing starts in the United States was 1.45 million units, compared with 1.398 million units in the previous period, rising to 4% month-on-month, and -12% in the previous month, and rising to 6% year-on-year, and -10% in the previous month. In the United States, 1.442 million building permits were approved in July, compared with the previous value of 1.441 million units. As of August 17, U.S. 30-year mortgage rates rose to 7.1%, an increase of 40BP from 6.7% at the end of June.

Have U.S. bond rates peaked? The fluctuation of long-term U.S. bond interest rates has been a focus of market attention recently.

Can the 10-year U.S. bond rate break through the October 2022 high of 4.34%, and what is the new high?

A review of the 12 Fed interest rate hike cycles in the past 60 years will reveal that the high point of long-term interest rates often occurs around the time the Fed last raises interest rates. What needs to be asked is, is 4.34% a reasonable reference frame? What are the characteristics of the shape of U.S. debt after the Federal Reserve suspended raising interest rates?

Hot thoughts: Have U.S. bond interest rates peaked? What will U.S. bond interest rates look like after the Federal Reserve suspends interest rate increases?

The starting point of this round of rising U.S. bond interest rates is around May 10, which mainly reflects the resilience of the economy and the easing of the impact of the SVB incident. The rise in U.S. bond interest rates since early August has been compounded by disturbances in supply and demand factors.

The U.S. Treasury Department's regular third-quarter refinancing meeting significantly increased the scale of net financing and increased the share of medium- and long-term bond issuance, triggering an increase in long-term U.S. bond interest rates. During the session on August 17, the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate once rose to 4.33%, which was only 1bp away from the high of 4.34% in October 2022. From experience, it is reasonable for the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate to return to 4.3% or even exceed the previous high of 4.34%. On the contrary, the rationality of 4.34% as a high point must be questioned. Because, on the one hand, the high of 4.34% occurred against the background of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates three times in a row by 75bp, but at that time, all parties’ expectations for the U.S. economy were pessimistic; on the other hand, compared with the SEP in September 2022, The federal funds rate target for 2023 was raised by 100bp.

Although I know that#BLZwill continue to rise, it is not easy to start after participating several times. Zhuang Taiyao, who trades BLZ, has a very bad position holding experience for contract users and it is difficult to hold on to this trend.

Turn back in three steps. If the stop loss is set smaller, it will be hit every time. If the stop loss is set larger, the fluctuation will be a bit unbearable.

On the other hand, look at #YGG, which has pulled 4 times before. The rise has been completed in one go, and the position holding experience is very good.#BLZAir Force may have to be exposed again.

#binance Thoughts on Binance’s recent strong counterfeit transactions, such as the previous#YGGand the current #BLZ. The current funding rate of BLZ is -2.5%, and settlement is once every 4 hours. I wonder if you have noticed that the previous YGG It is also the top funding rate. Who is short selling at a rate of 2.5% for 4 hours?

Wouldn't it be better to simply collect the funding rate of 2.5% six times a day? There is nothing new in the world. Every time the top fund rate of the copycat is accompanied by exploding the short position, it then chooses to go down. For the current blz, even if it is short with double the leverage, can you know where its top is.

I admit that blz will eventually return to dust, and it will fall back to where it rose from. But can you be sure whether it will rise by 100% and then fall again? No, the profit and loss ratio of short selling is actually very poor. Instead of going short, look for the next long #BLZ

Ether follows the big pie, fluctuates slightly and rebounds steadily. The upper pressure level is 1849, 1886, 1930, and the lower support level is 1710, waiting for the opportunity to rebound. #ETH #BTC

The trend of the US dollar index and the yuan may predict another interest rate hike. Several corollaries:

The Fed will raise interest rates again

Inflation in the United States may not drop to near the 2% level before the epidemic

The future development of the United States may be high inflation (3%) and high growth rate

The 0% interest rate level will no longer be seen in the short term, and the era of super water release may be gone forever. The possible situation is: high growth rate, high inflation (3%), appropriate interest rate level (3%)

3200 A shares, 29000 big pie #BTC , it is the time when the fragrance is getting more and more fragrant. Don’t ask again at that time, what to do and you are short again. The low-level mistakes in January cannot happen again. There are many similar pitfalls. This shows that there is a high probability that you like to be cheated. #ETH

When inflation was high last year, Powell jumped out and said that inflation was controllable and there would be no rush to raise interest rates. Eventually, it recorded the highest inflation record in recent decades.

The fastest rate increase in history was unprecedented. Now Powell has jumped out and said that interest rates will be raised in the future because inflation is still too high.

At the end of the battle, the strength is no longer enough. The biggest risk now is the risk of missing the vehicle, the risk of not being in the car. #BTC

It is indeed difficult to go short. I just closed my short order yesterday. I have basically made no money from shorting for two months, and I am still at a slight loss.

Therefore, at the end of the bear and the beginning of the bull, the best operation method is actually spot, and keep buying spot, ignoring small-level fluctuations for almost three months. It seems that we are choosing to use the horizontal trend to replace the downward trend, thinking that the estimated time The node was at the end of June, but it was started early. The plan could not keep up with the changes, so we had to start preparing for the layout of so many orders. #BTC

#ETH The weekly level exchange rate began to reverse, reversing the downward trend. When the ETH exchange rate goes higher, in conjunction with the current shock of the U pair, it is a sign of ETH's strength. ETH must arrange a market change in June. Let’s see if the east wind of the US stock market can blow into the currency circle this month.

#EDU has taken the lead in getting out of the bullish market and is now out of the shock range. If there is a counterattack here, it will be a good opportunity to get on board with a high profit-loss ratio.#SUIis weaker than EDU. For #binance Singapore dollars, a month or so of washing time is basically enough. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the price of $1.

#BTC #ETH The time for market change is approaching. Pay attention to the closing situation of BTC here to see if it can effectively stabilize the 28000 mentioned before. After a month of fluctuations around 27,000, it has yet to effectively fall below the right shoulder of the large head and shoulders top, and there are sufficient fluctuations and changes of hands here. The direction choice at this time should expect higher returns. If the linkage between BTC and gold fails, it will be revealed soon whether it will switch to the linkage between BTC and US stocks, thus starting the second round of gains.

This is a popular copycat that was very popular before and has a very good growth rate. Let’s take a look at the current trend#FTM#FET#APT#OP Friends, can you feel the current market atmosphere from the picture? It really fits the saying: outdated Internet celebrities are not as good as dogs.

Don’t forget the market reaction after the last two cycles of interest rate hikes, especially what happened after 2000 and 2006. Against the background of the current U.S. banking crisis, U.S. stocks are showing a prominent feature: the concentration of the stock market continues to increase, and technology The ratio of market value of stocks to non-tech stocks has hit an all-time high.

Although there have been breakthroughs in the AI ​​field in the technology industry this year, and the balance sheets of large technology leaders are indeed relatively stable, the phenomenon of the market "width" being extremely compressed to a few stocks may imply a lot of investment The person’s “seeking stability” mentality. This deserves everyone’s vigilance. If the internal and external political and economic environment shows a clear downward trend, how much risk are we willing to take to pick up steel?

#LTCBTC If you have large funds in the circle, you can try to figure out the exchange rate of LTC. I don’t think the exchange rate of LTC here can beat it, and the further you go, the greater the advantage of this exchange rate will be as the halving approaches. There is still a neutral shock here, and the day of market change is not far away. After that, there will be a larger fluctuation. Everyone should be on board with this wave.

#BTC When Bitcoin enters the beginning of the cycle from 2023 to 2025, there is no doubt that this is the relative bottom position. It is very cost-effective for long-term spot positions. In the stage of bull-bear conversion, the trend is often hazy, but for fixed investment For the party, the more it falls, the more investment it should make. The four seasons have reincarnations and the economy has cycles. It is still in the rebound stage of the bear market, and the next market will be very torturous. It is better to wait and see the opportunities around October and November. This may be a good time for players who love to play shock. People's psychology is probably that since the interest rate hike has reached its peak, it's time to cut interest rates, so buy risky assets. Next, I found out whether such high interest rates meant that the economy was about to decline, the company was not operating well, and the stock price was about to fall. In the end, it was discovered that the economy was really in recession and the real bull market would not come until the central bank started QE.