先生之势M

The big pancake broke through its historical high last night. Up until now, various data has been released. On the surface, it looks strong, but I have hidden concerns:
(Note that this is not a bearish signal, but a reminder to be prepared for potential downside.)
1️⃣ The breakthrough happened without volume, and the trading volume is even smaller than in previous days, unlike the usual 'explosive volume confirmation' structure of a main upward trend;
2️⃣ The funding rate is still low, contract sentiment is tepid, and while CVD has risen, it is not explosive;
3️⃣ The pullback after last night's drop has exaggerated the decline in spot premiums.
(Note that the funds driving BTC and the funds driving altcoins are two separate waves of capital.)

The historical high should be the market's heaviest resistance zone. If the breakthrough does not rely on volume for endorsement, it could be a false breakout.
I prefer to view it as slow growth, building momentum, rather than a stable trend.

The structure hasn't broken down, and the trend hasn't turned bearish;
but without volume, I won't pursue high positions in the mid-cycle. At least for this week, we need to observe.

Currently, a whale on the BTC chain holds a long position worth 1.1 billion...
According to the current liquidation data on Hyperliquid, positions exceeding 200 BTC and with liquidation prices within 20,000 dollars above or below the current price range are attracting attention across the network for this long position valued at 1.1 billion dollars!

Meanwhile, the on-chain shorts are currently... generally in a defensive state, with liquidity distribution being quite scattered, and a considerable number of positions have very high liquidation prices. This has led to the current on-chain futures market's short leverage being significantly lower than that of the long!

The average long leverage is around 25 times, while the average short leverage is around 18 times.

It is clear that the existence of this massive long position has raised the average leverage for longs... and its likely aim is to eat away at the short liquidity defense that has accumulated 4,500 BTC around the 112k area above.

Therefore, the current target price may be tested multiple times here.

Currently, the sentiment in the futures market is entirely maintained by this one long position; if it closes, the price will drop, and if it doesn't close, there is still hope for the price to continue rising... #比特币突破11万美元

As Bitcoin breaks through its previous high, ETH and altcoins are gradually showing signs of improvement.

From the perspective of altcoins, we still hope that BTC can give altcoins a bit more time.

Excessive volatility or rising BTC prices will make the market more anxious in the current environment.

Currently, the altcoin market is in a stage of tension with a hint of hope. [sigh][sigh]#比特币突破11万美元

5.22 Market Dynamics:

1. BTC took 4 months to break the new high; now there are no pressure points above, it just depends on how to play it, after all, the target has been achieved;
2. ETH ultimately remains subdued; despite BTC reaching new highs, it still hasn't broken 2600, so stay highly attentive;

2: Nasdaq-listed blockchain company BTCS increased its Ethereum holdings worth 8.42 million USD, strengthening its Ethereum strategic layout;

3: Canary Digital updates Solana ETF application documents, modifying the product name;

4. Former FOX reporter: The "GENIUS Act" has passed the motion for a vote and is entering the amendment process;

5. World Liberty Financial supports BUILDon, promoting USD1 as the base trading pair;
This B isn't a conspiracy, I can't believe it; everyone started shouting from 20m, then 2 days later went to alpha, and that same night worldlibertyfi bought in—a complete strategy, the Trump family made a fortune;

6. Santori from Pantera Capital: The Solana strategy of DeFi Development Corp outperforms traditional ETFs through staking and DeFi participation; #比特币突破11万美元

A few hundred points away from Bitcoin's new high, why is there a continuous flow of short positions?

Because the price increase is not supported by good news...

Why are those going long hesitant?

Also because there is no supporting good news...

So, for now, we just need to wait for a piece of good news that can stimulate emotions, and the price will stop rising...

Because people will only believe what they want to believe, and the market's liquidity operation logic is exactly the opposite~#BTC再创新高

Still, the trend is more comfortable to hold onto.
Although the position ratio is not high, it is highly cost-effective.
Let's see if we can reach a new high together again tonight.
There’s no need to strategize over the remaining few hundred points.
Take a good rest and relax those tense nerves from the past few days. No positions, no predictions, just watching.
Feel free to share, just for entertainment reference. #BTC挑战11万大关

Recently emphasized repeatedly to participate in dealing with the current BTC market using a short cycle, gaining another 1k space.
The current tolerance rate is too low, lacking structure.
Eat a bowl of lobster noodles and leave [Go for it][Go for it]
Freely share, just for entertainment reference. #BTC挑战11万大关

The macro-level stablecoin legislation is still having an impact on the market, and prior to this, the market did not fully anticipate or price it in. In fact, this somewhat overturns my previous statement about the short-term fuel shortage issue.

However, there is a detail that needs to be considered: currently, the so-called stock-bond-exchange trinity has only the stock market left. If the stock market is 'hit hard' and enters a short-term period of high volatility 📉, can the crypto sector, led by Bitcoin, continue to move against the tide as it did last night, and keep rising?

My personal view is that although the technical breakout seems optimistic from the chart's perspective, the external environment still lacks optimistic factors. As we approach previous highs, I need to be increasingly cautious 📈.

(p: It's neither Du nor Kong, let's play around with short cycles for now. Currently preparing diligently; when the transformation ends, we will play the mid-term trend with larger waves.)#特朗普晚宴 #GENIUS稳定币法案

Currently observing the liquidity of Bitcoin futures from a micro perspective:
It seems that the futures bulls and bears are both trying hard to pull...
When it retraced to the lower liquidation zone, it was caught by a large amount of buying, so the bullish liquidation market was not triggered.
When it moved up into the short liquidation zone, there was also some selling, causing the price not to directly go into a bearish liquidation.

Therefore, there are two explanations presented in the video:
1: The short-term turnover rate is too high, and the market is gradually shifting towards a large amount of short-term trading sentiment. (This is also what I have been encouraging everyone to do)
2: The market wants to undergo the liquidation process, but the liquidity on both sides is not sufficient, and the fuel is lacking.

So in terms of small structure, I still lean towards the probability of channel oscillation upwards. Of course, this usually comes with a setup, and the previous trends have surely witnessed this. This kind of structure has no margin for error, so regardless of whether the holding direction is right or wrong, there is no need for a big picture, using a very small stop-loss ratio to strive for a larger space.

Feel free to share, for entertainment reference. (The red falling line mentioned yesterday represents the medium-term bias. Today, we are discussing the short-term.)#BTC挑战11万大关

5.21 Market Dynamics:

1. BTC is moving towards new highs, unfazed by external factors. Even if your altcoin leader drops, I continue to rise;
ETH is consolidating at high levels with various positive news emerging, but the founders' coins are always moving, which inadvertently causes panic among everyone;

2: Max Resnick plans to build Solana into a decentralized Nasdaq;

3. CME Group's XRP futures had a trading volume exceeding $19 million on the first day, outperforming Solana;

4. New York City will establish a Digital Asset Advisory Committee to explore on-chain applications for government affairs;

5. Bitwise plans to launch three income-oriented ETFs exposed to crypto assets;

6. Musk: Advancing the lawsuit against OpenAI, Starlink may possibly go public in the future;

7. Bloomberg analyst: 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have surpassed 5%, which may signal resistance for highly speculative cryptocurrencies; #GENIUS稳定币法案

Brother JIMMT's daily BTC script chart is really about to burn out my CPU....

The movement above the trend line is surprisingly in line with his judgment; once it plays out, this art is complete.

Dragon's breath, truly honored! #BTC挑战11万大关

Sorry, guys.
I've secretly done another order [doge][doge]
The fuel above is insufficient, so let me temporarily be the fuel for Duotou.
Currently 104k, let's first do 1.5k space to eat some crayfish. [污][污]#Strategy增持比特币 $BTC

For short cycles, medium cycles, and long-term trends, I don't know how everyone understands it.
My understanding is:

Short cycles, even medium cycles, can be driven by events, such as Trump's tariffs, the US-China game, Moody's ratings, Bessen's speeches; essentially, it is no different from a CPI data release or whether a Bitcoin reserve bill passes in the news;

However, from a broader long-term perspective, the trend is developing in the direction it was originally meant to go. For instance, how do we characterize this Bitcoin rebound as so fierce? Is it a rebound or a reversal?

At least currently, I don't see a strong upward driving force like when the ETF was approved or the expectations of interest rate cuts two years ago;

Moreover, while trading, we also need to consider the current price. When ETFs and interest rate cut expectations started to drive, Bitcoin's price was around 30,000, and when Trump's market exploded, Bitcoin was around 55,000. Now, Bitcoin has risen from 75,000 to 100,000;

I think it's possible for Bitcoin's price to break through previous highs from this position, but it's just a bait for more buyers. To maintain a long bull market upward, the amount of funds needed to buy will increase exponentially;

Is there money in the market? I've said before, yes, but currently, I still haven't found a reason for this money to enter the market, which is the basic logic for my judgment on this round of market.

Giant whales use a large amount of foam to break on the water's surface to gather fish schools in one location, and then open their giant mouths to eat the panicked little fish.

Recognizing the breaking of foam and the gathering of crowds is the best strategy for little fish to avoid being eaten.

To all little fish #Strategy增持比特币

5/20 Analysis of Two Structures for BTC Mid-Term: Ultimately Targeting 123k

The first structure is a black falling line that continuously adds fuel, breaking through in a choppy upward manner.

The second structure is a red falling line: at this stage, due to the high leverage ratio, we will first execute a liquidity move before proceeding upward.

Although the red falling line is subjective and leans left, I still prefer it in the short term. The core reason is that I haven't seen any positive news at the spot level.

The breakdown of the short cycle structure also signifies the emergence of a new direction, and I expect it to conclude within this week.

Feel free to share; this is for entertainment reference only. #Strategy增持比特币

5.20 Market Dynamics：

1. BTC has stabilized to an outrageous level, and the recent US stock market has been unable to influence Bitcoin's trend, only ETH can have an impact;
Yesterday, it was suspected that large holders of ETH took profits and exited, after the market declined, a new round of large holders took over, seeing no points for speculation in the market, only able to operate secretly;

2. The US Department of Justice has launched an investigation into the Coinbase data breach incident;

3. USDC issuer Circle is considering an IPO or selling for $5 billion to Ripple or Coinbase;

4. Cryptocurrency lending institution Genesis is suing its parent company DCG, seeking to recover $1 billion in transfers made before bankruptcy;

5. BithumbOfficial's market share has risen to 25%, planning for an IPO by the end of the year; this proportion is unknown who presented it, completely disregarding other exchanges?

6. The SEC has delayed the review of the Bitwise Solana ETF and 21Shares Core Solana ETF listing applications;

7. SEC: Will promote the drafting of rules related to crypto assets; #Strategy增持比特币

Due to the minor price fluctuations and support reactions, and the fact that the lows are still being elevated, we should still view this with a range-bound mindset, so the short positions have all been exited near 102600.

My short-term trading is not as frequent as that of other experts. I take opportunities when they arise, and if there are none, I just play; I believe this rhythm suits my logic better, rather than being based on subjective speculation.

This range-bound market may be facing its end this week, and moving forward, I will try to avoid short-term trading as liquidity has accumulated by at least 50%. I will wait for the next breakthrough or breakdown of this range and prepare to enter a trend trade on the right side!

Those who are familiar with me should understand that I am a loyal mid-to-long term supporter of Ethereum. I rarely encourage my friends to do short-term trades in ETH in videos or posts.

Because I understand that if the altcoin season really comes, Ethereum, as the leader, will definitely be the first to explode, and then it will be a sky-high frenzy. Regardless of whether you have a broader vision or not, there is a risk of profit withdrawal or loss on positions.
If there is no altcoin season and it’s just a script for a rebound, then there’s even less need to hold short-term. With the same holdings, I can invest in other mainstream chains with endorsements for a better risk-reward ratio.
The recent market performance has been terrifying; one could say that unless you are exceptionally lucky, it’s very difficult to make a profit.

In the past month, whales have accumulated over 450,000 ETH.

Now, don’t be scared by the short-term pullbacks; all your chips will go to the big whales. I can only tell you that many known large holders have recently changed some of their Ethereum positions.

The fundamentals have changed, and if you don’t change your thinking, you will get hit. Those who have waited so long just to invest during one or two small pullbacks will not make big money! #Strategy增持比特币 #BTC挑战11万大关

BTC has returned to the 4h channel after reaching a high, as well as within the 1h small cycle structure. It was mentioned that 📉 breaking 104k we are mainly short in the small cycle.

It can be seen that the rising trend line under normal coordinates has been tested once, and currently this trend line basically coincides with the middle track;

Therefore, the thought process can be much clearer:

As long as the middle track support is effective, the bullish trend still exists;

If the price breaks below the middle track and trend line, but does not break the range support, it will continue to oscillate;

Breaking below the middle track, trend line, and the current lower range indicates the end of the bullish trend;

If the bullish trend ends, then the price is likely to go to the average support zone below the 4h channel and the next demand area, which is the 92k~94k range. #Strategy增持比特币 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC

This is heaven chasing after feeding me.
Those who have a follow-up video can leave a bottom position at the second target. #BTC挑战11万大关 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC