先生之势M

About 【shib】

No more fuss, after giving my thoughts yesterday, I received a 10% expectation in the early morning.

Later, after confirming that there is a supply-demand relationship with Bitcoin, I will provide information about other potential altcoins.
Feel free to share, don't take it too seriously.

This surge in a stealthy manner has only one uncomfortable aspect: during the rapid ascent in the small scale, the spot premium did not increase significantly, but only started to rise after a pullback and fluctuation once new highs were broken.

Although the shorts above 110k have officially been liquidated, my feeling is that everyone is re-establishing short positions! Haha

The theoretical logic for shorting is there:
1: In principle, the technical pattern also conforms to a double top formation and liquidity grab behavior.
2: From the perspective of liquidity, as long as it is given some time, it will gradually gather! In the short term, it only needs to experience a period of fluctuating pullback to attract more and more shorts into the market.

However, I personally feel that if we follow this Siamese reasoning, once the spot premium starts to grow, it will increase the leverage for bulls, and the re-entering short positions will become the target for a new round of liquidation.
The best path at this stage is to provide a fluctuation adjustment under the current supply zone pressure, allowing for the turnover and catch-up of altcoins, and then wash out the shorts upward...

In simple terms, theory tells me there are opportunities for vacancies, but my intuition tells me that bulls should hold on first and just do a risk-free reduction…
#BTC再创新高

BTC

Ultimately, it broke through. The script given yesterday has been continuously validated, and the sentiment is very appropriate.

The rest will be left to time to see if it can stand above 110500. If it stabilizes, I'll just hold on.
Feel free to share. #BTC再创新高

Currently, there are two paths with more controversial points in the small structure:

1: The black Siamese directly breaks through 110500 after completing the wedge structure adjustment, continuing the upward movement of the large C wave.

2: The red Siamese, on the liquidity level, considers the decrease in spot premiums and the divergence in positions. At the same time, the uncertainty guided by the macro environment leads to a potential expectation of a pullback, followed by an upward movement. #突破交易策略

In mid-July, another CPI data will be released. If a 10% tariff can bring a certain level of inflation, then a tariff exceeding 10% will only bring greater pressure.

The potential concerns arising from this data must also be taken into account...

If these concerns can be properly resolved, then the technical trend can continue; if risks are exposed, the market may need to undergo another round of correction...

From a technical perspective, the structure of BTC remains intact, the trend is bullish, and there is a 60% probability of breaking through this supply zone;

However, regardless of whether it breaks through or corrects, the bullish trend on a larger time scale is still long-term and has not yet been disrupted.

So, in terms of trading strategy, if the daily supply zone can achieve an effective breakout, then one can go long on the right side up to 114k or above;

I have prepared different trading plans for all possible paths under various conditions, now we just wait for the market to give signals! #非农就业数据来袭

Since '98, it can be considered a zigzag pattern of 535 as a rebound.

This rebound indicates the start of the final wave of the big C wave based on the breakdown of the wedge structure.

Now that it has risen above the wedge structure, the trend can be held long, just carry a break-even bamboo shoot for a risk-free position. #美股代币化

The logic of the video is very clear, discussing the issue from three perspectives. Did not disappoint..#美股代币化

1: The mid-term structure of BTC has not changed much, the main focus is on how to navigate the middle of wave C. If it goes smoothly, it will complete the pullback and then go up directly; if not, there will be many consolidations.

2: It is uncertain whether this downward wave will extend. For the short structure, just pay attention to the break of the current wedge guide. There are two small buying zones below, and if you don't want to go back and forth, just wait for the lower dip. #Solana质押型ETF

This week's BTC futures market liquidity historical map update!

Surprisingly, in the last 10 days, BTC has hardly undergone any large-scale liquidation trends. During upward tests, it just touches the liquidation zone and then retreats; during downward tests, it also does not reach any significant long liquidation zone...

Looking back at historical data, basically whenever there is a similar situation...

It always results in a 20% fluctuation...

Moreover, the trend is predominantly in favor of the prevailing direction...

So for the upcoming week, my strategy has fundamentally changed; I will not engage in short-term trades anymore and will prepare for the next wave of trend movements!

Given the current state of liquidity distribution, as long as there are no major negative external factors, I will continue to stand on the bullish side...#Strategy增持比特币

Video Supplement Update Points:
K-Line Pattern:

Last night's decline broke through the core range, which is concerning; after all, the daily and weekly close would be quite unfortunate.

The daily line quickly rebounded above the 100K support after falling to EMA99,
The weekly line also did not effectively break down, it was a close call,
As long as we rebound, there is still room for maneuver, and the main force also does not want to break down, causing everyone to lose confidence and triggering a sell-off; sometimes the main force can be caught off guard by a chain reaction.

Currently, the Middle East situation this week is particularly critical; to be honest, as long as it does not continue to escalate or reveal new black swans, I feel it's all a trap for shorting, it's all an opportunity for large players to pick up bargains, and retail investors will just obediently hand over their chips.

Liquidity Level:

The long liquidity above 100K has been completely cleared out; currently, only 97,500 still has a little bit left, while the short liquidity above 110K has once again become the focus;

This is not implying that prices will skyrocket, but if prices rebound from this bottom, then the short liquidity above 110K will become the target.

As for whether prices have bottomed out or will form an expanding structure, I cannot predict for the time being.

Wave Structure:

If we follow a wave pattern, then a rebound to around 102,700 is very reasonable, plus the CME chart gap top is also around 103,000, and the EMA pressure is also at that position! This is also the point mentioned in the video that needs attention in the short term.
The 4-hour neckline should be observed for reactions after breaking above 103K; if this happens, then focus on 104-106K.

Three perspectives on the current Bitcoin structure; if you don't understand, take a serious look.

The current small-level structure cannot provide a subjective directional view at all, because both long and short liquidity in the futures market continue to accumulate. In this range, it is difficult to go long or short.

There is no probabilistic advantage in the data...

The trend of BTC spot premium in the last two months gives me a feeling that spot is trying hard to buy in, but the results are not ideal, leading to a gradual depletion of buying power...

Meanwhile, the futures market has gradually become more optimistic about the future market from the beginning when it was not favorable...

Thus, it can be inferred that the final breakout method in this range is likely to be led by futures (including false breakouts), followed by a new trend moving downward...

The market is very realistic: buy more when it rises, wait when it is sideways, and run when it falls.

Beliefs are worthless; only systems that can be monetized have a future.

Retail investors really can't crash the market; they are just caught in a vicious cycle of losses... #鲍威尔发言

The recent structure seems to have fallen into a chaotic state. Both bulls and bears are the same.....

Among the top 10 positions on Hype, 5 whales are long and 5 are short...

The fact that such top positions show a dilemma also means that the main players have not yet made up their minds or are waiting for liquidity to accumulate.

At the same time, it proves that the short-term structure is easily guided by fundamentals.

Since that's the case, retail investors can only look for a sense of presence within technical patterns.

These two empty trades feel very heavy!

With the structure in such a vague state, we can only take small segments, after all, there is data released in the early morning.

Continuously warming up #GENIUS稳定币法案

The liquidity structure that deserves attention is the long-short ratio of large holders, which is currently in a historically high fluctuation area. The attitude of large holders represents the main rhythm of the market.

It is clearly visible that when the price drops and breaks below 105K, the overall market sentiment shifts from bearish to bullish.
Above 105K -- there are more short positions.
Below 105K -- the number of long positions increases.
This is a signal of 'sentiment direction switch' → previous wait-and-see/bearish sentiment quickly tilts towards bullish.

In terms of large holders' positions, the long positions have not decreased, indicating that the 'heavily invested long funds' have not exited during this pullback.

In terms of structure: the main positions have not decreased, and new long positions are entering the market.
In terms of sentiment: the onlookers are becoming proactive, and bullish sentiment is spreading.
In terms of time: in the past 12 hours, there has been a characteristic of 'collective side-switching' among long positions.

Comprehensive judgment: Long positions are still in control of the rhythm; the real offensive usually starts when sentiment is most hesitant. #我的交易风格

When you are asking "Is there still a altcoin season?",

the teams behind altcoins are selling their altcoins for Bitcoin.

There is a set of deep logic to consider:

A true altcoin season begins not when people shout, but when the project teams themselves are unwilling to exchange their tokens...#GENIUS稳定币法案

6.18 Market Dynamics:

1. BTC is dragged down by the US stock market, honestly going down, there are too many factors to consider, so many positive aspects still can't withstand external negative pressures;

2. ETH is strong but has increased volatility, with significant ups and downs, it remains to be seen if it can hold up, 2500 is a critical level;

3. SOL rebounded yesterday after pumpfun was banned, this morning it was directly bombed towards breaking 140, currently rebounding, always a lagging presence, not sure if it will work this time;

VanEck Solana ETF has been listed on the DTCC list;
Many positives, but no significant price movement;

4. The US Senate passed the GENIUS Act;

5. Digital ophthalmology company Eyenovia invested 50 million USD to establish HYPE reserves;
Now all kinds of reserves are coming in, I wouldn't be surprised if a meme reserve comes next;

6. Trump will sign an executive order to extend the TikTok sale deadline by 90 days;

7. Liu Qiangdong: JD will apply for a stablecoin license in major currency countries around the world;
It seems everyone knows that stablecoins can make money; #美联储FOMC会议

This week's first blood came a bit late, but the good thing is that the community reacted in time.

Sure enough, the market will torment people until they're out of patience, then kick them a couple more times to continue the torment.

Recently, this stupid trend has indeed been frustrating, the trend strategy has lost two big waves in a row to these two old idiots (in the US)...

Fortunately, the position isn't heavy, let's hope for a continued recovery…#美联储FOMC会议

Report on altcoins:

The market value exchange rate has retreated for several consecutive weeks,
now it is approaching the previous low again. Will this continue within this week? I believe we need about a month to observe:

If we understand this from a liquidity perspective:

The reason why altcoin season couldn't come before is that the on-chain market absorbed too much speculative liquidity, and now the on-chain market is no longer that active, Pumpfun's issuance is also starting to face resistance...

If altcoin season doesn't come again, it really can't be explained!

Since the beginning of the year, the total amount of stablecoins has been continuously increasing, and even if this liquidity is dispersed, a part of it should have entered the market by now?

Next, I don't expect anything, just hope BTC can oscillate well for 1-2 months, and then break out into a new high market, allowing altcoins to absorb some liquidity for about 3 weeks, leading to a small altcoin season.

Apart from this, I ask for nothing else! #美联储FOMC会议

6.17 Market Dynamics:

1. BTC has directly plunged in small increments under the shadow of conflict, it has dropped in the recent hour, not too bad, let's see if anyone jumps in to trade later;

2. ETH has recently been targeted for shorting, while some are eyeing long positions, providing sufficient liquidity; both bulls and bears have traders making waves;

3. SOL is very weak; it performed strongly yesterday but collapsed immediately, pumpfun has been shut down, shouldn't you be happy about it;

4. US media: Trump calls for readiness in the war room; and urges evacuation from Tehran, leading to safe-haven buying and rising gold prices;

5. Cantor Fitzgerald is optimistic about Solana as a treasury asset, superior to Ethereum;

6. Arkham: FTX withdrew 252,847 SOL from Coinbase Prime, worth 39.72 million USD;

7. European Commission: Reports about the EU accepting 10% US tariffs are speculative and do not reflect the current discussion status;

#以色列伊朗冲突