小麦老师-猫妖

1. Unable to recognize the nature of the industry and have blind faith in too many projects. At the current stage, at least 90% of blockchain projects are a TV series based on illusions and lies. All we have to do is recognize the illusion, get involved, and then get out of the game before the illusion becomes public knowledge.

2. Disrespect the market, gamble with high leverage, and think it is easy to make money in the currency circle. Please remember: the market is always right! With one risk and one profit, the currency circle can allow you to quickly complete your initial accumulation, and it can also quickly make you bankrupt. If you don't respect the market and don't have awe of the market, the market will definitely make you pay the price.

July 8, 2023

After the release of the non-farm data, Mr. Xiaomai believes that the United States has only slowed down the recession, but has not changed the outcome of the recession. Although inflation has fallen now, the economy and employment are still strong, and core inflation is still very high, which is still a long way from the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve. He believes that if the Federal Reserve wants to see inflation return to its target, it must continue to raise interest rates, even at the cost of causing the economy to fall into a downturn for a period of time. CME's probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July has not only not decreased, but has risen to nearly 95%. The Federal Reserve has basically set the tone for raising interest rates in July, and it can be said that it has little to do with the non-farm data, so we will not discuss the non-farm data much. The US CPI data for June will be released next Wednesday. Compared with non-farm, CPI, especially core CPI, will be more important now.

July 6, 2023

There is still a certain correlation between the current currency market and the macro economy, and they are not completely independent markets. From the perspective of liquidity and sentiment, whether the Federal Reserve adopts a tightening attitude will still have a non-negligible impact on changes in the overall market environment. Although the currency market is still decoupled from the US stock market, this does not mean that the currency market can be separated from the macroeconomics. Emotional impact.

The minutes of the June interest rate meeting recently released by the Federal Reserve directly affect the probability of another interest rate hike in July. It can be said that a July interest rate hike is a high probability event. According to Mr. Wheat’s personal experience, whenever the Federal Reserve chooses to suspend interest rate hikes, it usually has a positive effect on market sentiment. However, if only one interest rate hike is suspended, it will obviously have more negative effects than positive effects on the currency market. Because once the suspension of interest rate hikes continues in July, there will be no interest rate hikes for three consecutive months, which will have an effect on increasing market capitalization confidence. If the Fed chooses to raise interest rates in July, market confidence will be shaken because the dot plot shows that the Fed still has a chance of raising interest rates.

July 3, 2023 Since the news of BlackRock’s application for a BTC spot trust was announced in mid-June, causing the price of BTC to rise above US$30,000, until the past two weeks, the price of BTC has maintained a slight fluctuation at this stage and has not occurred. There are clear signs of a breakthrough. Judging from the trading volume, the trading volume this time is not even higher than the trading volume explosion caused by the Silicon Valley Bank explosion, technology stock earnings reports and the continuous thunderstorms of regional banks. From this, we can see the current liquidity of the currency market. Still at a very low level. At present, BTC and ETH have not yet solved the liquidity problem in essence. The shortage of funds and the lack of narrative in the industry itself are still the reasons for the price increase. This does not mean that the prices of BTC and ETH will not rise, but that from Judging from the trend, if there is no continued positive stimulus, the range of price changes will still be limited. Before there is a clear rejection from the SEC or the emergence of bad information, the probability of bargain hunting funds continuing to hold positions will be higher. According to Teacher Xiaomai’s experience, every July It is an information month. July is not only a game month for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but also a month for the release of second-quarter financial reports. The rise in US stocks and even technology stocks after the first quarter is because the financial reports were better than expected, which drove the rise of BTC and ETH. Whether this financial report can continue the next rise in U.S. stocks depends on this month's data. If the Fed does not choose to raise interest rates in July, the market will speculate that the Fed will not continue to raise interest rates. 5.25% will be the final interest rate. If the Fed continues to raise interest rates in July, the market will focus on the dot plot in September. superior. Now the market is focusing more attention on several large funds’ applications for BTC trusts and spot ETFs. Both loss-making and profit-making position holders have opportunities to gamble, so don’t give up the chips in your hands easily. From a technical point of view, Ether 1850 will intervene in the spot downward, and the market will be close to the moving average to intervene in the spot. If it can reach 29500, it will be a good opportunity.

June 29, 2023

Recently, the departure of funds from the currency market has accelerated, and insufficient liquidity has become the main reason for limiting price increases. The decoupling of the currency market from the U.S. stock market does not affect the midline flow of the market. In addition to the CFTC and SEC's supervision of market makers, the cause of the lack of liquidity cannot be ignored. The macro market sentiment cannot be ignored. In addition, Teacher Xiaomai teaches you a way to judge the purchasing power of the market: look at the trading volume of BTC and ETH in CMC. It can be seen that the trading volume of BTC and ETH is falling every day. The decrease in the market value of stable coins reflects the decrease in purchasing power.

June 28, 2023

From a technical point of view, the current market belongs to the bullish trend after 27500, which is mainly along the trend, but there are two options for going long.

The first is the callback to allow space adjustment, and the 27500-29000 range is long in batches; the second is the sideways trading to allow time adjustment. If it is still sideways after the 29th, go long first. At present, the price is still consolidating above 29800, with 29500 below and 31000 above. There is a high probability of entering the box range. Teacher Wheat recommends paying attention to the follow-up 29500 puncture and retrieval opportunities for longs. Pay attention to the high altitude of the box and the low longs. Currently, continue to focus on 31000 to suppress shorts. Ether 1900 suppresses shorting, look at 29800-29500-28500, and Ether looks at 1840-1820-1800. The current market is still experiencing unresolved liquidity issues, slow fluctuations, and sideways trading. We should remain unchanged in response to all changes.

June 27, 2023

Bitcoin has remained above 30,000 for many days, which is still very strong. It can be speculated that the subsequent correction will not be too large. It can be seen from the trend of US stocks last night that US stocks have entered a comprehensive correction trend. Although the currency market and US stocks are still temporarily decoupled, we still need to pay attention.

From a technical point of view, after the weekly positive line of Bitcoin, the daily EMA is golden cross, which is a bullish trend. However, do not operate too hastily and wait for the global market to adjust. There is a high probability that the follow-up will still be a monkey market, and there will be a correction before the delivery at the end of the month around the 29th. It’s basically over. Just look for opportunities to go long and get on the spot. According to Mr. Wheat’s experience, in the monkey market, you should refer to EMA trading to buy or sell as close to the moving average as possible. At present, it is best to wait for a retracement or to buy close to the moving average after moving up. The callback target is in the 27500-28400 range. If there is a subsequent breakthrough, 31,000 may be a new high.

June 26, 2023

With the opening of CME on Monday morning, there is no gap from the daily line. The reason why we look at the daily gap is because the daily gap seems to be the most intuitive and effective. From the current point of view, there is a gap between US$21,150 and US$20,300 on March 13, 2023 that has not been filled. According to Teacher Xiaomai’s experience, the gap is generally filled with the highest probability that week. If it is not filled that week, it will be filled later. Not sure, it may be very long or very short, there is no pattern.

By observing the long-term daily line, we can observe that in the three years from 2020 to now, there are still two gaps on the daily line that have not been filled. One is the 21,150 mentioned above, and the other is 35,300 to 34,500 on May 6, 2022. Of course, it has not yet been determined when the gap will be filled, but many gap theorists believe that the gap of around 35,000 will be achieved by this rise. Returning to today's daily line, according to the rules of previous observations, there is a high probability that this gap will be filled within this week, but it cannot be ruled out that it will be by inserting pins. This can be used as a reference to analyze the trend in recent days. .

June 24, 2023

The past week has been basically dominated by news. I think everyone should know the reasons for these increases. First, the SEC cracked down on Binance and Coinbase, and supported EDX Markets, an exchange that meets SEC requirements. As for the BTC spot ETF applied by BlackRock, which caused#BTCto directly break through 30,000 US dollars from 26,000, it will take some time to know the SEC’s final decision. If passed, GBTC and GBTC will have a better transfer plan. Last night Volatility Shares announced the launch of the 2x leveraged BTC strategy ETF, which once again drove market sentiment and pulled BTC to 31,400. It is the only fund in the United States that provides twice the return rate of BTC, and will be officially launched on June 27.

June 22, 2023

We all know that the market value of stablecoins reflects the purchasing power. The market value of the four main stablecoins has increased by nearly 120 million US dollars in the past 48 hours, which is a very good start. Through the judgment of Mr. Wheat’s experience, we can know that USDT’s active time zone is mainly in Europe, and USDC’s main trading time zone in the United States is more active. By observing the current rising momentum, it is not difficult to find that USDT has been the main force in buying in the long term, and USDC represents Not only has the market value of U.S. stock funds been shrinking, but also the purchasing power has continued to decline. This time, the benefits come entirely from the U.S. market. The main period of increase in BTC and ETH was also in the United States, so we need to focus on whether there are any significant changes in U.S. funds. Variety. By observing the trading volume of the exchange, we found that the trading volume continues to rise, which shows that the current sentiment is still very good, and the number of bottom-buying users is increasing. But this amount of funds is not large at least from now on. This is probably just the beginning. After all, it has only been two days so far. More attention is needed in the following time, especially the weekend is coming soon, next Tuesday. The capital and transaction data may be more representative.

June 21, 2023

I believe everyone has seen how fierce the currency market's rise was last night, and Teacher Xiaomai also knows what everyone is thinking, especially when the Nasdaq 100, led by technology stocks that have been doing well recently, has fallen by nearly 1%, but BTC and ETH have Decoupling has risen against the trend, and there is a reason for this.

Just at 23:02 GMT+8 on June 20, 2023, it was announced that a new cryptocurrency exchange supported by companies such as Citadel Securities, Fidelity Digital Assets and Schwab was online. The exchange stated that it would use a new third party Transactions are conducted in the form of custody and do not touch user assets. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has long criticized existing crypto platforms for failing to separate different parts of their businesses, such as custody, market making and trading, which can lead to conflicts of interest. This is exactly what the SEC needs, and it is currently being hyped in the English community, which is why there was a wave of pulls last night. And investors generally believe that the main reason why BTC exceeded 27,000 US dollars is that the BTC trust applied for by BlackRock will be successful. Currently, there are great expectations in the market for the successful application of BlackRock, especially if BlackRock succeeds, it will also provide a shortcut for Grayscale.

June 20, 2023 In terms of news, yesterday in Teacher Xiaomai’s sharing, we mentioned that the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate increases in June. According to current analysis, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July is as high as 70%. In the stage of excessive interest rate hike to suspension of interest rate hike, the short-term sentiment during this period is positive. However, it is necessary to distinguish between suspending interest rate hikes and skipping interest rate hikes. Therefore, if it is skipped, it will still have a certain impact on market sentiment. But if it is true that there is no interest rate hike in July and there is no interest rate meeting in August, it will be equivalent to three months. There will be no change in interest rates for months. Judging from historical experience, the risk of a suspension of interest rate hikes for more than three months is that the market is almost always in an upward trend. Mr. Wheat speculated that although Powell’s speech on Wednesday night may not reveal the Fed’s interest rate hike plan in July, if it is too hawkish, it will definitely increase the market’s expectations of a July interest rate hike. For risk markets, Not friendly. Regarding the expected issuance of US$100 billion in U.S. debt in June (the government’s cash balance is expected to be around US$400 billion at the end of June), the impact on the market will be relatively small, and large-scale trillion-level debt will be issued in the second half of the year. There are still ten days until the delivery of monthly and quarterly options. If the price of 25,000 cannot be achieved before delivery, the bulls will win. Therefore, the long-short game will continue to intensify in the next few days. Be sure to stop losses and control risks when participating in the market. measure. After BlackRock submitted a Bitcoin ETF application yesterday, Fidelity is also considering acquiring Grayscale or applying for a Bitcoin spot ETF. It has a certain promoting effect on the Bitcoin market. Recently, the currency market has decoupled from the U.S. stock market. When U.S. stocks rise, the currency market may not necessarily follow suit. This is because the price of the currency market is restricted by liquidity. It will be difficult for the currency market to return to a complete state before the liquidity problem is solved. independence. But if the U.S. stock market rises very well and the sentiment is greatly boosted, even if it is not good for the currency market, it is definitely not bad and is better than the decline of the U.S. stock market. From a technical point of view, the highest rebound today is 27179, which is close to the upper resistance range. Next, watch more and place less orders, reduce the frequency of transactions, and take profit appropriately for long orders in spot or contract. Observe whether the next 27380 breaks through. You can use this pressure level Light warehouse test. To sum up, hold the spot and pick up bargaining chips. The contract is close to 27380 to take profit and the 26000 support level. Touch 26000 to buy as low as possible.

June 19, 2023

Sentiment has been much better recently. The Western Hemisphere is still in a weekend state. The decline in the three major stock index futures is likely to be a continuation of the remarks made by former Federal Reserve officials last weekend about the possibility of resuming interest rate hikes in July. At present, whether to raise interest rates in July is still the focus of the game, and suspending interest rate increases has a positive effect on the risk market compared with interest rate cuts. Although the current interest rate hike is temporarily suspended, judging from the dot plot and the voting results at the Fed's interest rate meeting, continuing to raise interest rates is not a bluff. Although the market has long been prepared for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates, if it really resumes raising interest rates in July, it will still have a blow to market sentiment.