老周pro

October has always been the best month for Bitcoin performance?

Today I saw a statement saying that October has always been the best month for Bitcoin performance. Historically, there have indeed been a few years like this; I remember that it started rising in October for several months. So will it be the same this year? This needs to be analyzed based on the actual situation, after all, we cannot blindly apply historical experience.

Rising for several months starting in October, creating a big bull market, has indeed happened. But first, that was when Bitcoin's price was still low, and when the price was low, there was more room for it to rise, but now Bitcoin has already surpassed $100,000. Second, if it rises starting in October, then there must be a significant decline in the preceding months, but this year there hasn’t been; this year has shown a slow rising trend overall.

In fact, it started rising from April this year, and it has been more than half a year. Even if it doesn’t rise anymore, now is the best time to short; whether it rises or not doesn’t matter, the key is whether your judgment was correct?

Some people say that ETH will break through 5000 again in October, is this credible?

Not credible. Since April, the time has been too long. The first quarter was a decline, the second and third quarters maintained an upward trend, and the fourth quarter may be somewhat similar to the first quarter.

Currently, the conditions for a major bull market are not in place. You could argue that there are many positive factors, including interest rate cuts, but they are completely ineffective. After the interest rate cut in September, the market has been falling, raising suspicions that the main players are using good news to sell off.

Many people believe that the bull market is still ongoing because ETH's growth is too low and insufficient, but the market is never what you think, but rather what it thinks.

From the monthly chart perspective, since ETH did not rise straight from 5000 to 7000, it indicates a lack of momentum, and we should not be overly optimistic.

By the end of this year, ETH is expected to maintain around 3500.

$ETH eth surged and then retraced today, expected to maintain fluctuations in the short term.

eth surged to around 4140 this morning, an outcome that was anticipated a few days ago. It was mentioned earlier that this rebound was expected to reach 4100-4200.

In the short term, there will still be fluctuations, but if it stays above 4040, it indicates that the bulls are in control.

If it breaks below 4040, a short position can be considered around 4000.

Long position on ETH increased from 4000 to 4139

Now preparing to short. $ETH

$ETH 0928eth early market maintains a slow rebound. If it doesn't break below 3980, continue to hold long positions.

The cost of the previous long positions was at 3950. It has been slowly moving upwards these past two days, but it hasn't shot up immediately, nor has it broken below the 3800 level.

Time has come to the end of September. Since the drop on September 13, it has already fallen for two weeks. It can't go down further, but the probability of a significant rise is also very low.

Currently, the trend is within expectations, just a rebound from the oversold low of 3815 on the 26th, looking up between 4100 and 4200. It's hard to grasp the timing, the latest thought is to give it a week, meaning until October 3rd or 4th, to maintain between 3800-4200 for such a long week.

How exactly it will move is unknown. Anyway, the long position at 3950 can take profit at 4100-4200. Later, there may be opportunities to short between 4100-4200, but that's a matter for the future.

Currently, just focus on whether the 3980 level on the 1-hour timeframe can hold steady. As long as this level doesn't break, it will continue to move upwards in the short term.

$ETH 0927eth midday The rhythm of the weekend is a rebound, with prices under pressure from the 10-day moving average.

The lowest point yesterday was around 3800, and eth has maintained a rebound since yesterday's daytime.

The time window, starting from yesterday, is expected to maintain a rebound within three days.

The next high point may be in the new week. This means looking for high points in the morning of the 29th.

Currently, the rebound is determined by pressure from the 10-day moving average, in the range of 4100 to 4200, and opportunities to take profits on long positions at 3950 can be sought.

$BTC 0927btc Morning market didn't rise much, looking at 112000

Compared to the second coin, it has risen less. The cost of yesterday's long position is 109386, just hold on, a little rise is still a rise.

Currently, the market is rebounding, and when btc finally rises, the rebound may end. This is the grasp of market rhythm. As long as btc does not fall below 108000 in the past two days, it is healthy.

Continue to hold the long position at 109386, take profit at 112000, and stop loss at 108000.

The stop loss setting depends on your own tolerance range and volatility.

$ETH 0927eth Early Trading Breaks 4000, Reaches 4200

Last night around 3950, indicated a one-hour level rebound. This morning, it has already broken 4000.

On the 4-hour level, it is currently at the middle track. This place is probably not the top; if we place pressure on the upper track, it will be around 4200.

Continue to hold the long position above 3950, take profit at 4200. Stop loss at 3800.

In terms of time, limited within two days of the weekend.

$ETH 0926eth Evening Market

Ethereum, it's late in the evening, if it can stay at 3950 by 12 o'clock, it would be nice to take a leap and see 4200.

Let the bulls make some profit.

Buy at 3950-4200 Stop loss at 3800

It has fallen for two weeks in a row, let's take a breather with the $, then continue to drop.

$ETH 0926eth The daytime market for ETH is too sluggish, but I still have a positive outlook for a rebound.

I still believe that ETH can rebound, at least breaking through 4000 again; it would be great if it could reach the 4200 position.

It has fallen for too long, and the bullish sentiment has collapsed. The first drop below 4000 caused panic, with a low of 3815.

Looking at the hourly chart, the lows are constantly rising. If nothing unexpected happens, the evening session today will likely break upward.

$BTC 0926btc 1-hour level long position (109323-113000)

Severely oversold, take a short-term long position.

Enter directly at the current price of 109323, aiming for 113000, with a price increase range of about 3%. Stop loss at 107000.

If you've taken the position, follow me, and I will keep track.

$BNB 0926bnb Short Long (950-1050)

As the market declines, there was a period of panic. However, Old Zhou noticed that bnb only reached a new high on September 21st this month, making it a strong coin. Currently, there is significant support near the middle Bollinger band (950) on the daily chart, allowing for a short long position.

Short Long (950-1050), with a time limit of 3 days. Stop loss at 930, take profit at your discretion.

$BTC 0926btc Market panic, shorts should pay attention to rebound risks

Recently, shorts have been enjoying themselves, but I need to remind you that there is a risk of a rebound due to short-term overselling. Previously, I predicted that in early October it would drop to 100,000, which does not mean there won't be a rebound in the short term.

Let's take a look at the rebound demand. This morning's lowest was 108631. Considering the daily middle track (114000) pressure, calculating 108631-114000 shows a 5% range. Lao Zhou believes the extreme pressure point for the rebound is 114000.

If your short position average price is above 114000, it’s not a big problem. If your long position is stuck, you may consider reducing your position during the rebound.

$ETH 0926eth 空头短期（本周末）注意超跌反弹风险

eth最近一路下跌，虽然我前面给的点位是跌到3500，但这需要时间，预计是在10月上旬。那么随着本周破位4000，最低来到了3800一线。如果你的空单均价在4300以上，继续持有风险不大。但如何你是无脑空或者浮盈加仓，一定要注意超跌反弹风险。

随着eth跌到3815一线，日线rsi到了30，日线从9月13日到本周末，连跌两周。短期内（三到五天）有反弹风险，如果周末反弹到4000以上，但没有超过4300，我们继续看空。

0926btc

The weekly line has broken the middle track support, and the bulls are completely exhausted.

This week can be said to be very critical. The failure of the BTC weekly line's middle track support means the market has chosen to decline.

With this week's unsupported decline, the lower position is at the 100,000 integer threshold, which happens to be at the lower Bollinger Band position, also at the end of June this year.

So the bears can take profit here at 100,000.

With three months left this year, I am not optimistic. If there is a rebound, short it.

0926btc/eth

Yesterday reiterated that at least until the end of next week, short selling is possible. This morning, the market continues to decline.

Hold the short position for btc, target 100,000

Hold the short position for eth, target 3,500

For rebounds, use the upper and middle bands of the four-hour Bollinger Bands as resistance.

The best indicator for this week and next week is the 4-hour resistance level.

Indicators are not omnipotent, but they are quite accurate during a one-way market. Since it has been predicted that this week and next week will be a one-way bearish trend, the 4-hour resistance level is the high short position, and the rebound generally does not exceed the upper Bollinger band of 4 hours; sometimes the middle band can also become resistance, depending on market sentiment.

btc stop loss at 115000, eth stop loss at 4300. If there is no stop loss hit, continue to hold the short position.

0925 Evening Review

The BTC 4-hour short strategy given at noon today has successfully materialized in the evening. BTC broke down around 9 PM and then rebounded. The short strategy remains unchanged, aiming to see 100,000 within 10 days.

As for ETH, after breaking 4000, we are looking at 3500, which is currently also fine.

Note, after floating profits, do not randomly increase positions to avoid profit retracement. Set a target and take profit once it is achieved.

Thoughts on BTC's Bear Market (Taking Precautions)

I am the old Zhou who likes to think.

Sometimes trading isn't about how many screens you have, or how diligent you are. It's about closing your eyes and thinking quietly.

If the BTC bull market is over, I mean if, how should we respond?

There are only two paths: shorting + minimizing losses in a bear market.

At the peak of 120,000 BTC, how much does it need to drop to be considered the bottom? According to historical patterns, it needs to drop by 75%. This time, who knows. In terms of time, there isn't much left this year, so it's unlikely to drop completely. Let’s also consider next year. This means the sunlight of the bull market may only appear at the end of 2026.

Overall, anything below 40,000 can be considered the bottom. I don't know which month next year it will hit the bottom, but starting to go long from 2027 should be fine.

Of course, it might not be like that in reality; who knows about such distant matters. The key is to focus on doing well now.

The best short-selling period for ETH in the second half of the year (9.20-10.20)

I also like rises, but from April 10 until now, it's been almost half a year, and ETH has barely broken the previous high.

What is a trend? It's the result of the market's collective force. Time has been given, good news has been given, but unfortunately, it doesn't perform well. It has risen, but we are not satisfied with the extent of the rise, but what can you do?

ETH has been oscillating in a range since August 24. Looking at the timeline, it oscillated for a month, dropped for a month, and in total, that makes two months, bringing us to mid to late October, completely crushing the bulls' momentum.

There will be a rate cut at the end of October, and there may be a rebound after the cut.

So, the best short-selling period for ETH in the second half of the year is from 9.20 to 10.20.

This is just a prediction. If it reverses above the 4500 level, this prediction will fail. The take-profit level below is 3500.