Leo-StarCapital

20250421$BTC
After the Easter holiday, the US dollar index opened at 6 a.m. with a sharp drop, hitting a 3-year low, possibly due to panic selling of the dollar by hedge funds triggered by Trump's plan to fire Powell, while excessive gold prices have led to capital flowing into BTC. BTC briefly retraced as it approached the previous high of 88500, with the 30-minute chart showing no divergence, making it difficult to fall back to the previous central upper limit of 85000. A pullback to the 86200-85300 range is an opportunity to build positions, waiting for the next positive breakthrough to challenge the previous high and impact the 92700 bull-bear dividing line.

20250505 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
Chuan City is undoubtedly clear, price fluctuations depend entirely on Trump, tariff panic reignites, MACD opens downward, looks like the trend will likely test the bull-bear boundary. Tonight, as long as the service industry PMI stays above the boom-bust line, the impact is expected to be minimal. Focus on the progress of the new round of strategy financing to buy coins.
Intraday trading plan: Short position small 5000U in hand, rebound at 94400 continue short, take profit at 93100, reverse to go long at 92900.

20250504 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
There were no significant macro events yesterday, and BTC pulled back to 95700 as expected, fluctuating in a narrow range. The MACD has shown a bottom divergence; as long as it doesn't drop to 95400, maintain a bullish operation.
Intraday trading plan: Long at 95700, short at 97300; if it drops to 95400, switch from long to short, targeting 93000.

20250503 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
Employment stability and expectations for interest rate cuts decline, the probability of BTC breaking the 100,000 mark decreases, China-US negotiations will start, but whether an agreement can be reached has significant uncertainty in both time and space. 4-hour level top divergence, bulls can gradually exit and observe.
Intraday trading plan: buy at 95700, sell at 97300, if it drops below 95400, continue to sell, target price 93000.

20250502 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
The penetration rate of BTC in traditional financial institutions has further increased, and the strategy has once again launched a mindless coin-buying machine. The Trump team is also continuously hinting at tax cuts. BTC successfully broke through the oscillation center yesterday, entering a new round of increase, with a key resistance level at 98800. Today's focus is on non-farm payroll data and the potential announcement of the US-India tariff agreement. An employment report that meets or slightly falls below expectations, or a trade agreement with a minimum tariff below 10%, will allow BTC to break the resistance level and challenge the 100,000 mark.

20250501 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
Last night's GDP data showed negative growth, below expectations, mainly due to companies rushing to import in anticipation of tariffs, resulting in a 5% reduction in net exports' contribution to GDP. However, consumer spending still grew by 1.8%, and business equipment spending increased by 22.5%. The negative impact is limited; BTC quickly rebounded after a sharp decline following Trump's speech. Subsequently, the stronger-than-expected personal spending growth and the steadily declining inflation further boosted market confidence. Currently, BTC has fully recovered from the drop and continues to oscillate in the 94600-95300 range, awaiting the crucial non-farm payroll data on Friday.

20250430 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
SEC slightly exceeded expectations and postponed the approval of Ethereum ETF staking; Trump's speech also did not provide much incremental future outlook. BTC remains within the fluctuation range of 93700-95500. Regarding the market direction, today we need to focus on the GDP data at 20:30 and the PCE data at 22:00. Additionally, due to enterprises' rush to import under tariff pressure, the US trade deficit in March expanded to a record $162 billion, which is expected to significantly drag down GDP. More attention needs to be paid to consumption and investment levels, including whether personal spending has significantly decreased.

20250429 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
Last night's upward momentum was interrupted by the Treasury Secretary's speech. After a pullback, it rebounded on favorable fiscal loan data and state-level reserves. Currently, it remains in high-level consolidation with a gradual upward trend in the oscillation center. Tonight at 23:00, we will welcome the first key event of the week #特朗普百日集会 , especially Trump's speech at 6:00, where the future outlook on trade policy is of utmost importance. Contract players are advised to hedge and seek opportunities on the right side.

20250428 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
On Sunday, Trump mentioned again the tax cuts to release purchasing power, while tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine issue continue to pull at the market. The 92800 bull-bear boundary is unbreakable. The market waits for this week's intensive important events and data to determine whether to continue the upward push to 100,000, trading within the 93600-94800 range for fluctuations during the day.
On Tuesday, Trump's 100-day rally regarding the outlook on tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine issue;
On Wednesday, GDP and core PCE data;
On Friday, non-farm payroll data.

20250427 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
There were no special macro events yesterday. Although there has been some progress in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, the market remains skeptical and does not respond easily; unless a comprehensive ceasefire is ultimately reached, it is not advisable to bet too much. BTC rose as expected and then pulled back healthily. From a short-term perspective, there is still room for a decline. The strong support at the lower edge of the 93000-93300 central range, with chips/liquidation/K-line/order book, can be used to open positions.

20250426 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
Inflation expectations decline, market confidence rebounds, BTC successfully breaks through the 95000 integer level, but upward momentum begins to weaken, and is affected by Trump's tariff remarks, retreating back to the fluctuation center of 93300-94500. It is expected to maintain fluctuations over the weekend, and before the positive impact of next week's non-farm payrolls tests the 100000 mark, it still needs to first pull back to probe the lower edge of the 93300 center.

20250425 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
BTC continues to fluctuate at a high level, altcoins are taking off. Federal Reserve officials' speeches have generally turned dovish, stating that tariffs have a limited impact on inflation, emphasizing the need to pay attention to unemployment risks. Next Friday's non-farm data, which is expected to be in line with or slightly below expectations, could trigger expectations for a non-recessionary rate cut, potentially reigniting Bitcoin's surge towards 100,000. Key focuses for the day: 1-year inflation expectations and SEC roundtable meeting (focusing on custody arrangements of traditional financial institutions and ETF approvals).

20250424 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
PMI data raises concerns about stagflation, after a short-term pullback in BTC, it quickly surged again following consecutive statements from the White House expressing a stance on easing tariffs with China, overall still consolidating at a high level. So as long as Trump doesn't go back on his word, BTC will once again challenge 100,000 after liquidity improves. Currently, BTC can be operated on a fluctuation basis, and ETF concept coins can be positioned at a low level around 92,000. Tomorrow's topic for the new SEC chairman is unavoidable: the backlog of ETF applications.

20250423 Bitcoin Diary #BTC
Trump's one-time veto of the Federal Reserve's independence and the two major negative factors of the China-US trade war have allowed BTC to successfully stand around 92800, the dividing line between bulls and bears. There is no doubt, the bull is returning quickly. The MACD is opening upwards, and the multiple moving averages are supporting it. As long as Trump doesn't change his stance again, the next resistance level is between 98800 and 100000. After Trump's statement, the increase was limited, with a large number of bulls taking profits, which is clearly market manipulation and insider trading.

20250422 bit diary #BTC
The BTC price has diverged significantly from the 30-minute line near the previous high. The negative impact of the Fed's independence will be far greater than the positive impact of the interest rate cut. The US market is not optimistic at present. At the same time, we need to pay close attention to Tesla’s quarterly performance guidance tonight. Under the expectation of tariffs, costs will rise and gross profit margins will decline, and the probability of negative news is relatively high. It is recommended to stop profit in time, as the 88888 Asian bosses’ favorite points are unlikely to be broken.

After the bottom rebound of BTC, it has been oscillating continuously in the 83000-85000 range for over a week. Last Tuesday, it broke through under pressure for the first time and quickly fell back. Today, the second breakthrough encountered a normal pullback at the previous high. The marginal impact of tariffs is weakening. Unless we see substantial inflation rebound or economic recession on the macro data level, the 'stagflation' expectations are unlikely to push BTC further down. With the gradual improvement of macro liquidity, the market outlook for May/June is relatively optimistic. If the next China-US trade is favorable, there is a high probability it will test the key bull-bear boundary at 92700, while 73000 is undoubtedly the extreme bearish iron bottom. #加密市场反弹