Danny03min

Analyze SOL

In May, SOL attracted investor attention with strong trading volumes, and the market's expectations for its monthly closing price showed a tug-of-war pattern between bulls and bears.

$190 has become the mainstream expectation: There is a 71% probability betting that the closing price will be close to $190, supported by over $310,000 in trading volume.

Significant bull-bear divergence: The expectation for $210 has a probability of 34% (trading volume of $187,000), reflecting some optimistic sentiment; however, the hedging bets for $140 have reached $364,000 (probability of 18%), indicating market concerns over correction risks. At extreme price levels, $250 (7%) and $300 (1%) have low probabilities, but the trading volumes are considerable, implying speculation or diversified betting intentions.

Technical indicators are signaling short-term caution: Currently, SOL is priced at $179.64 (with a 24-hour increase of over 3%), and while the MACD remains positive, historical patterns often accompany corrections. The $184 resistance level and the $178/$173.90 support levels form a short-term trading range.

Amidst the interplay of market sentiment and technical indicators, whether SOL can break through resistance and continue its upward trend will depend on observing the bull-bear capital dynamics and the digestion of overbought signals.

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$BTC

The short-term trend of Bitcoin has formed a downward channel. Once it falls below 100,000 USD, it is very likely to drop to the target of 93,000 USD, which is also the CME gap position.

Bitcoin Bull and Bear Cycle Judgment Techniques

1. Cycle Patterns and Historical Experience
Bitcoin's cycle is approximately 4 years long and is highly correlated with the 'halving event'.
For example: after the bull market in 2017, there was a bear market in 2018; after the bull market in 2021, there was a bear market in 2022; a new cycle will begin in 2024. Bear Market Traps: In the middle of a bull market, there are often prolonged deep corrections lasting about 9 months (like in March 2025, which is the 6th month), during which prices fluctuate sharply, but the long-term trend remains unchanged.

Market Sentiment and Participant Behavior
Retail Investor Sentiment:
The latter part of a bull market is often accompanied by FOMO sentiment, with a surge in discussions on social media, while the bottom of a bear market sees little interest, and the crypto space can feel 'lifeless'.

Institutional Movements:
Continuous accumulation by institutional funds (like Grayscale and MicroStrategy) is a signal for a bull market to start, while large-scale sell-offs or the disappearance of premiums may indicate a turning point.

2. Capital Flow and Policy Influence
Macroeconomics and Liquidity
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy directly affects market risk appetite.
For example, after the slowdown in interest rate hikes in 2023, funds flowed back into high-risk assets, pushing Bitcoin to rebound from $16,000.
When global inflation expectations rise, Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attributes are highlighted, attracting safe-haven funds.

Regulatory Policies
The regulatory stance of various countries towards cryptocurrencies (such as ETF approvals and trading bans) can have short-term impacts on prices, but the long-term trend towards compliance will attract more institutional participation.

3. Practical Strategies and Timing
Bear Market Bottom:
During market lull periods, gradually accumulate BTC, ETH, and other mainstream coins, avoiding chasing prices up and down.
Bull Market Phase:
Early Stage: Focus on BTC and ETH
Mid Stage: Allocate to strong public chains like SOL and AVAX
Late Stage: Be cautious of altcoin bubbles, and take profits in a timely manner.
Risk Control: Avoid heavy investments in altcoins, as their life cycles are short and their volatility is high; most go to zero after a bull market. Set stop-loss lines; if BTC drops more than 10% in a single day without a rebound, be cautious of a trend reversal.

Summary: The Bitcoin bull and bear cycles need to be comprehensively judged in conjunction with technical indicators, market sentiment, and capital movement across multiple dimensions. Currently (May 2025), the market is in a mid-adjustment phase of a bull market, and it is advised to remain cautiously optimistic and pay attention to capital movements.

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