Exclusive sharing from Bit Eagle: The ETF imitation season is coming, will XRP surge?
In the past few days, it has been widely circulated online that "the US SEC approved the XRP spot ETF" This led to a short-term increase of 5% in XRP price 📈, but after a small rise, it quickly fell back as everyone realized the mistake 🤦♂️
What are the three new ETFs for XRP? These ETFs do not directly buy XRP but bet on futures price fluctuations. ProShares in the US is launching on April 30: 📈 2x Long Futures ETF 📉 1x Short Futures ETF 📉 2x Short Futures ETF
🏦 Current status of XRP ETFs There are already 4 XRP ETFs in the US: all are futures, none are spot. On April 25, the XRP spot ETF has been launched in Brazil. On May 19, XRP futures will be listed on the Chicago Exchange, possibly paving the way for the spot ETF.
🚀 So when will the SEC approve the spot ETF? Companies like Grayscale are applying, but the SEC has not given any indication yet.
Currently, the ETF imitation season is approaching, with over 70 ETF applications, and everyone is betting that the new SEC chairman will approve them. XRP, Sol, and LTC are the focus of the next wave, while Doge, Bonk, and PENGU are also jumping on the ETF bandwagon, likely to be a way to exploit investors.
XRP Market Cap: $134.5 billion SOL Market Cap: $76.9 billion If all are approved for ETFs, looking at market cap and ecological advantages, SOL may have greater potential for price increase in the future.
Exclusive analysis by Bit Eagle: $BTC 📉 The stock of BTC on exchanges has fallen to a 6-year low (the lowest since 2018)
Institutions are going on a buying spree: After the election, US-listed companies have hoarded 350,000 BTC, making BTC increasingly scarce every day.
What does this mean? ✅ Whales and institutions are entering a coin hoarding mode, preparing for the subsequent market trend. ✅ BTC is being withdrawn from exchanges, the supply of BTC on exchanges is decreasing, and the imbalance of supply and demand may drive BTC prices up.
Brothers, bull markets are born in doubt and grow in hesitation. BTC is essential for a bull market; you must hold it and buy in batches when the price is low.
Good morning, brothers. Yesterday, a big bullish candle changed our beliefs. Many brothers have changed their views and started to inject more capital to continue the push. Is this appropriate? How will the market move next?
First of all, gold seems to have stopped rising. The target price of $3500 we mentioned last week has been hit precisely. After hitting $3500, gold entered a phase of significant volatility. According to our previous analysis, the bullish trend in gold is nearing its end. Some funds and attention will flow into BTC, bringing positive news.
Various signs indicate that sovereign wealth funds and listed companies, along with American elites, are increasing their BTC holdings through ETFs and the spot market, while retail investors are selling BTC. Currently, countries like El Salvador and Bhutan have included Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves. More details on the U.S. BTC strategic reserves will emerge in May, bringing positive news. Some state governments in the U.S. are also pushing related legislation, and they may not start buying this year, but many states will begin to purchase BTC next year.
From on-chain data, BTC has been flowing out of exchanges from yesterday to today, but stablecoins are also flowing out. Altcoins are still risky; if BTC corrects, altcoins may suffer damage. Therefore, we advise everyone not to chase after some skyrocketing meme coins. Instead, consider shorting.
Currently, we recommend holding over 50% of your position in BTC, and altcoin positions should not exceed 30%. Just be patient and hold on, and wait for the rise! Brothers who haven't gotten in should not buy all at once. Be cautious of corrections and consider buying in batches daily.
Bit Eagle Analysis: The Elites of America and the Global Big Capital's Clear Layout
Big news today: Cantor Group is close to reaching a $3 billion crypto investment cooperation with SoftBank and Tether. What is the background of this Cantor Group? It was established by the son of the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, a guy named Brandon Lutnick.
They have set up a new company called 21 Capital, raising funds from investors to buy BTC. This company aims to profit from the appreciation of BTC. Tether is contributing $1.5 billion worth of BTC, which is already available and not purchased. SoftBank is investing $900 million to buy BTC, which is direct purchase funds. An additional $600 million comes from other investors, who will use this money to go all in on buying.
We can see that various elites in the U.S. and global big capital are all starting to increase their holdings, so what reason do we have not to accumulate some BTC?
Good morning, brothers. A strong bullish candlestick has completely changed the sentiment. Even those who have been saying that BTC will drop to 60,000 have come to privately ask: Can we still get in now?
Despite emphasizing the need to position ourselves and not to sell at the bottom, some brothers are still making contrary moves. With this significant rise, it is advised that those who are out wait for a few points of pullback before getting in, otherwise, you might chase in only to see a pullback, unable to hold and forced to sell at a loss again as it starts to rise. Unless you know the trend and can hold for the long term.
For this major rise, several factors: (1) Whales continue to accumulate, and there is a supply shortage of BTC on exchanges. Over 15,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges last week. On Monday and Tuesday, ETFs invested 1 billion USD to buy the dip in BTC.
(2) Trump stated yesterday that he has no plans to fire Powell. This eased market panic, leading to a significant rise in both BTC and US stocks.
(3) Major developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation! Reports say that Putin is willing to negotiate with Trump for a ceasefire, with Crimea becoming a bargaining chip. If the war ceases, it will be beneficial for risk assets like BTC.
The advice for everyone now is to remain patient and not to be impulsive. A new trend is forming. $BTC $ETH
Good morning, brothers. Last night, the U.S. stock market plummeted, but BTC rose unusually, which is a bit uncommon.
On-chain data shows that over 4,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges. The accumulation by whales has become increasingly evident.
Why did the U.S. stock market drop significantly again? Because yesterday, Trump started a crazy tirade, continuously attacking Federal Reserve Chairman Powell online for not lowering interest rates, causing panic in the market.
Previously, we also hoped Powell would lower interest rates, as this would benefit the crypto space. But with Trump causing chaos like this, if he were to use some means to fire Powell, then it would actually be a major negative for the crypto space.
This is because it represents a threat to the long-standing independence of the Federal Reserve. This would disrupt the operation of the global financial system. Global investors would sell off every American asset they hold, leading to a crash in the U.S. stock market and bonds. BTC would also be affected and could plummet (possibly falling before rising).
The reason BTC surged yesterday is still what we mentioned before: Gold, as the ultimate safe haven, has risen sharply for some time. However, there are huge profits being taken, and a large number of people are taking loans to buy gold. This means we are almost at the top. Whether those who have made money want to take profits, or those who haven’t made money want to make money, there will be some attention and funds flowing into BTC.
Despite the positive trend, we must not forget the risks, such as the breakdown of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, or Israel attacking Iran, etc.
Bitcoin Eagle 🦅 4.20 Accurate Market Analysis @everyone
Brothers, good morning on the weekend. Recently, some altcoins have rebounded to some extent, and BTC seems to have stabilized at $85,000. Is a major rebound coming?
First, let's look at a few trends.
(1) Yesterday, Bitcoin mining difficulty was adjusted up by 1.42% to 123.23 T, setting a new historical high. During this round of decline, it once fell below the BTC shutdown price, but we did not see miners liquidating; they are still rushing to earn money and continue mining. The total network hashrate is continuously increasing, and the average mining cost of BTC today is $90,000. This means that the BTC we buy on exchanges is cheaper than what the average miner spends to mine it. Given this situation, do you think it will rise or fall later?
(2) In the past week, there was a net outflow of over 15,000 Bitcoins from exchanges. Large holders are still accumulating coins; according to on-chain data, whales holding over 10,000 BTC are still buying in large amounts, and small holders are starting to reduce their selling.
(3) Surveys show Trump's approval rating has fallen to the lowest point of his presidency. His tariff policies are not winning public support; people in the U.S. can't even afford eggs. So Trump must be under pressure; this week he stated that the U.S.-Japan negotiations reportedly achieved 'significant progress.' He is 'very confident' about reaching an agreement with the EU, and also mentioned he is preparing to reach an agreement with China. Once these agreements are made, breaking $90,000 for BTC will be easy.
So let's patiently hold our spot positions and wait for a breakthrough, don't cut losses at the bottom, and don't lose hope! Recommended BTC position over 50%, altcoins no more than 30% position.
The current price of ETH is $1600, back to the price of 2022. This means holding ETH for 3 years has yielded no return. If you bought at around $4000, you are down 60%. So we have to ask, can we still buy it?
A few months before the big drop, there were several analyses targeting ETH, encouraging everyone to swap ETH for BTC.
Now that it has dropped, ETH is still not the best choice.
First, let's compare ETH and SOL. Currently, the fundamentals of ETH are not as good as SOL, yet its market cap is 3 times that of SOL. ETH is valued at $200 billion, while SOL is at $70 billion.
Secondly, ETH's ETF has been approved, and the positive news has been released, but SOL's ETF is still in the pipeline, and the positive news has not yet been released.
So buying ETH is not as good as buying SOL.
Next, let's compare ETH and BTC. BTC has been included in the U.S. strategic reserves, while ETH has not. BTC has digital gold attributes, low inflation, and it is getting lower. The POW mechanism requires mining, which is costly, and miners have machine and electricity costs. But after ETH transitioned from POW to POS, staking can yield ETH, resulting in higher inflation and lower costs for ETH.
So buying ETH is not as good as buying BTC.
Overall, despite the significant drop, investing in ETH is not the best choice. Those holding ETH can exchange it for BTC or SOL (BTC is more stable).
Good morning, brothers. Last night the US stock market slightly declined. BTC still looks relatively strong.
The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this summer. The next big surge in BTC may come from a tariff agreement being reached and other countries starting to treat BTC as a strategic reserve.
Altcoins are a bit weak; altcoins without fundamentals find it hard to hold on. Hype has strong fundamentals and, as the leading chain, is still rising. Bera has dropped a bit again today; brothers holding it should first swap to BTC to hold on and avoid further losses from altcoin declines during this period. Yesterday we analyzed ETH, which is not the best bottom fishing choice. Brothers holding it may consider swapping to BTC or SOL.
BTC is expected to reach $130,000 this year. However, we cannot rule out black swan events in between, such as Israel launching airstrikes on Iran. So brothers trading contracts must set stop-loss orders properly.
The current price of ETH is $1600, back to the price in 2022 This means holding ETH for 3 years has yielded no returns If purchased around $4000, it has lost 60% So we must ask, can we still buy it?
A few months before the big drop, several analyses regarding ETH were released, encouraging everyone to swap ETH for BTC
Now that it has dropped, ETH is still not the best choice
First, let's compare ETH and SOL Firstly, the fundamentals of ETH are currently not as good as SOL, but its market cap is 3 times that of SOL ETH is 200 billion USD, SOL is 70 billion USD
Secondly, ETH's ETF has been approved, and the positive news has been released But SOL's ETF is still on the way, and positive news has not been released yet
So buying ETH is not as good as buying SOL
Next, we compare ETH and BTC BTC has been included in the U.S. strategic reserves, but ETH has not BTC has digital gold properties, low inflation, and it is getting lower The POW mechanism requires mining, which has high costs, as miners have machine and electricity costs But after ETH transitioned from POW to POS, staking can yield ETH This leads to higher inflation for ETH and lower costs
So buying ETH is not as good as buying BTC
In summary, despite the significant drop, investing in ETH is not the best choice Those holding ETH can swap for BTC or SOL (BTC is more stable)
Good morning, brothers. Last night, BTC rebounded strongly. It was again our sleeping time. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke, and then there was a sharp drop in BTC by 2%. Powell reiterated that Trump's policies are changing every day, Do not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to save the market. He mentioned ensuring that tariffs do not lead to more persistent inflation.
Now it's good news. At least for the next 5-6-7 months, there will be no interest rate cuts.
I thought BTC would crash heavily, But it seems quite resilient and has started to rebound again. I checked the on-chain data; it continues to flow out of exchanges. 5000 BTC flowed out yesterday, and the whales are still accumulating.
Gold has risen too sharply, and now there are people taking loans to buy gold. They didn't buy gold when it was falling, nor did they buy in previous years. Only when it skyrockets do they take loans to chase it. This is the same in any financial market: buying high and selling low. It indicates we are not far from the top.
We mentioned before that after a sharp rise in gold, Some funds will shift to BTC, driving BTC up significantly.
However, the U.S. tariff negotiations and other macro events Will cause market fluctuations. At least there will be a month of consolidation, Market recovery will not be so quick. During this time, the secondary market is hard to operate, It is recommended to focus on regular investment and accumulation of coins. Then use small funds to participate in the primary market games: Yesterday, Bitcoin Eagle meme coins tripled 3 times, and 1 went up 5 times. Brothers who haven’t joined, find the link to join and fight together.
Bitcoin Eagle analysis is for reference only, Investment carries risks, please invest with spare money, and think independently. $BTC
Good morning, brothers. Last night, the U.S. stock market went from rise -> fall -> close up. The BTC trend is similar.
Trump has changed his stance again, suddenly easing up, considering a temporary exemption for auto tariffs, bringing a slight positive. At the same time, he has initiated a 232 investigation, proposing tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, bringing negative news.
These are just the surface appearances in a chaotic situation. Essentially, the world is becoming more chaotic, risks are increasing, and U.S. policy is unpredictable. The attraction of dollar assets is declining, gold is rising, BTC is benefiting from this and is also building momentum.
Yesterday, over 5,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges, with Binance accounting for 3,000 and other exchanges for 2,000. This indicates that there is still significant capital accumulating BTC at the bottom.
When the 90-day equivalent tariff suspension period ends, there may be a “principled agreement” in the U.S., allowing the U.S. and partner countries to move forward. No matter what, it will be better than the current situation!
Our market prediction: Within half a month to a month, the market will still be volatile, After the volatility period ends, BTC is expected to break 100,000 in May or June. It is advised that BTC positions should be larger than altcoins, exceeding 50%. Some brothers ask if there is a wealth code, BTC is the wealth code. It's just that people are unwilling to buy.
Good morning, brothers. Last week we experienced a world-changing event! Trump announced exaggerated tariffs, and the U.S. is decoupling from the entire world, resulting in a historically rare sell-off of dollar assets! U.S. stocks plummeted, and U.S. Treasury bonds fell for five consecutive days, with the dollar sharply depreciating. Trump, this character, has truly brought the country to its knees.
Against the backdrop of the world abandoning the dollar, spot gold broke through 3240 and continued to hit new highs, BTC also gained, currently rebounding to above $84000.
Many people hope the Federal Reserve will intervene, but the Federal Reserve remains unmoved, as steady as an old dog, but if they decide to cut rates by 25 basis points, BTC will quickly return to $100,000.
Yesterday, the U.S. suddenly exempted tariffs on electronic products like phones and computers, which was a positive signal, but Trump immediately countered last night: saying he wants to review the entire electronics supply chain, and in the future will impose tariffs specifically on semiconductors, causing BTC to drop again to $83000.
BTC benefits from two points: (1) The decline in the dollar's status and the loss of appeal of U.S. Treasuries, everyone needs a more stable investment target.
(2) This year, the Federal Reserve may cut rates more than twice to respond to the potential collapse of the U.S. economy.
Long-term layout, continuously optimistic, but the market is not a one-time success; there will be many twists and turns in between. It will still need a 2-3 week consolidation period before BTC can break out into a new situation that makes everyone shout 'bull market.'
Investing involves risks; please invest with spare money and think independently.
Good morning, brothers. This morning, BTC briefly broke through $86,000.
Currently, the U.S. government has made a "180-degree turn" on tariff policies.
Yesterday, the U.S. exempted some goods from "reciprocal tariffs," exempting electronics such as smartphones, computers, and chips from the so-called "reciprocal tariffs." Documents show that the exempted products apply to electronics entering the U.S. after April 5, and those who have already paid the "reciprocal tariffs" can seek refunds. This measure may alleviate the price increase pressure faced by U.S. consumers to some extent, and it will benefit companies like Apple and Samsung.
Previously, various U.S. assets plummeted, causing panic among people, Trump's approval ratings fell rapidly, even die-hard fans like Musk came out to oppose him! So Trump is under pressure and has started to lower tariffs.
At the same time, the U.S. is negotiating with different countries to lower tariffs, so there will be various good news in the future. Therefore, we judge that the overall market trend is positive. If there are no other issues, BTC should be able to return to $100,000 in May.
But we must be wary of a few black swans in the meantime. Just like Trump suddenly imposing tariffs, causing a huge drop in the global financial market. Some negative events may occur suddenly. We must understand that investing is not smooth sailing and carries risks.
(1) The U.S. is negotiating with Iran to cancel the nuclear program. If Iran refuses, there may be a war where Israel and the U.S. bomb Iran. This situation could lead to a 10% drop in BTC, with a current probability of 20%.
(2) Mentougou suddenly selling coins, with a probability of 30%. Selling over a billion dollars worth of BTC now is difficult for the market to absorb, leading to a 5% drop in BTC.
Investing carries risks, please invest with spare money and make independent decisions $BTC $ETH
Bit Eagle Exclusive Analysis: The Relationship Between Whale Proportion and BTC Price
The above chart shows the whale proportion below, and the BTC price above. The more whales accumulate, the higher the whale proportion. Once the accumulation reaches a certain proportion, for example 0.5, BTC generally starts to rise significantly #BTC走势分析 $ETH $ETH
Good afternoon, brothers The market has recovered a bit these past few days, better than we expected
What do we think about the future market? Actually, the analysis in the past few days has been written down Overall, it is still on the rise But we need to be careful of Trump causing a drop in the middle
Currently, U.S.-China tariffs are as high as 125% Tariffs from other countries are over 30% The U.S. is negotiating with different countries to lower tariffs So there will be different good news ahead
At the same time, the dollar is falling, and gold is rising In the short term, as a risk asset, BTC will definitely follow the U.S. stock market down, But gold keeps rising sharply, with more and more profit-taking, Fewer and fewer people are willing to buy in, So when gold rises to $3500, some funds may allocate to BTC Combined with the details of the U.S. BTC strategic reserve coming out in May In the second half of the year, it may reach $120,000
It is recommended to allocate in spot, and focus on work and life without too much worry But if using contracts, if there’s a drop in the middle, and liquidation happens with no coins left, No matter how much the market rises afterward, it will have nothing to do with us
There were rumors yesterday that tariffs would be temporarily suspended for 30 days, leading to a market recovery. But later, Trump delivered three consecutive blows: refusing to stop tariffs + angrily criticizing allies + threatening additional retaliatory tariffs. The market dipped again.
However, overall it's still okay, the US stock market seems to have stabilized, BTC has also returned to $80,000.
Coinbase saw outflows of over 8,000 BTC yesterday, with whales buying the dip again.
Strategy Situation: (1) No BTC purchases in the past week (2) Average purchase price is $67,458, currently up 10% (3) Since Trump won the election in November 2024, Strategy has bought 276,000 BTC at an average price of $93,228, worth $25.73 billion.
Next, we need to see if the US tariff situation eases, for example, reaching agreements with certain countries to reduce tariffs. This would help the market recover and avoid a bear trend.
Currently, the fundamentals of BTC are stronger than ever, there's no reason to be too pessimistic.
Post-Bottom Scenario: 1. Wait 1-2 more months, the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates. 2. The US negotiates with major countries to lower tariffs. 3. The US BTC strategic reserves reveal more measures.
Currently, during this period of panic, cutting losses is unnecessary, we are very close to the bottom. The stock market and crypto market, based on the above three major events, will regain vitality. Remember, surviving is key, deleverage, and hold spot.
Brothers, in less than 24 hours, Trump's tariffs are about to be announced. During this period, the global financial markets have been shrouded in fear. Stock markets in various countries have plummeted, cryptocurrency markets have collapsed, only gold has surged.
Last night, many meme coins on Binance crashed, this morning, Mask dropped by 30%, all due to panic selling by large holders, caused by the lack of market liquidity.
The announcement from the White House Rose Garden is scheduled to be released at 4:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, but earlier, the U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the corresponding tariff measures would be announced at 3:00 AM.
Anyway, it's tonight!
As the tariffs are about to land, the market faces another wave of panic. Market volatility is increasing, during this period if trading contracts, both long and short positions may be liquidated.
In summary: Now is the stage to patiently wait for the tariffs to land and for market recovery. After the tariffs are announced, it will be a bearish outcome. If it exceeds market expectations, there may be a slight drop, but it will quickly recover. If it falls below market expectations, it will surge significantly.
Yesterday we mentioned that although the market is in a pessimistic state, we must see the turning point: During the recent decline, whales have shown no signs of exiting, USDT issuer Tether purchased 8,888 BTC in the first quarter. Yesterday, Trump’s son established a U.S. Bitcoin company. Strategy bought 22,048 BTC last week, totaling $1.92 billion, at an average price of $86,969. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has a fund called Maelstrom that is steadily increasing its BTC and some altcoin holdings. $BTC $XRP $
Good afternoon, brothers. In yesterday's analysis, we mentioned: The market is in a period of fluctuation, and a major reversal will not come particularly quickly. When more people lose confidence, a big bullish candle will change their beliefs.
Last night, a big bullish candle really came, BTC once broke through $87,000, What exactly happened? How will it go in the future, and what should we do?
Last night, the Federal Reserve also hinted at another 50 basis point rate cut in 2025. Igniting market sentiment! The Federal Reserve didn't say it, but Wall Street has already heard what it wants to hear. If the economic situation deteriorates, the Federal Reserve will take action to cut rates, A rate cut in June is still possible. Good for US stocks and the crypto market, US stocks also rebounded significantly.
Regarding ETFs, just as Bit Eagle analyzed a few days ago, Funds are starting to flow in positively. On the 17th, $270 million flowed in, and on the 18th, $209 million flowed in. Yesterday, $11.8 million flowed in (data from BlackRock has not yet been released).
During this big drop, Trump's side took the opportunity to get in, Buying cheap chips around $80,000. Next, we are about to enter a new phase: Trump will use policies and the Federal Reserve's rate cut narrative to drive the market up.
What we need to do: Do not hold an empty position, do not short, and hold patiently.
Good morning, brothers. Yesterday, there was widespread panic during the day, and after the U.S. stock market opened in the evening, there was a significant drop, causing extreme panic. Many brothers couldn't sleep well.
Yesterday, I analyzed the reasons for the decline, and also examined the subsequent trends and strategies.
Today, I want to emphasize again
The crypto summit on the 7th may bring the following news, which is positive for the crypto market to start rebounding: (1) Introduction of a zero capital gains tax policy (2) More information on strategic reserves
Additionally, considering the following situations: (1) The current average mining cost of BTC is above $83,000, and miners are already at a loss. (2) On-chain data shows that BTC has still been flowing out of exchanges these past two days. (3) The Nasdaq index has declined for three consecutive weeks. (4) Those who bought in the last three months are all losing money, and there are not many profit-taking positions left, which weakens the selling pressure.
Current on-chain data shows that BTC reserves in exchanges have decreased to levels seen a month ago. This is a good sign; there is no need to panic.
In investing, it is important to establish your own logical system, combining others' analyses, such as Bit Eagle's analysis, to form an independent judgment of the market. Otherwise, you will fall into emotional trading, making trades based on feelings. If trading based on feelings could make money, then everyone in the world would be Buffett.
Yesterday and today are both risk periods; do not panic sell at the bottom, be patient and hold for a rebound, the long-term outlook remains bullish.