囍铅华

The crash of 2.3 has dealt a heavy blow to small investors; no one expected the new year of 2025 to start this way. It has severely undermined the confidence of the bulls. The sharp withdrawal of profits and various uncertainties in the information landscape have put people's minds to a severe test. To be honest, I have been repeatedly thinking over the past two days whether to liquidate everything and exit, saving some strength for the bear market of 2026. Although in 2024, I withdrew quite a bit at high points (the household's internal consumption and expenses are almost dealt with), there is still a considerable portion of altcoin holdings whose recent profits have all returned to the average price of 2022 or even lower. At this moment, liquidating feels unsatisfactory, so I might as well comfort myself and hold on; if the bull market cycle really ends unusually early, I will accept it.

I still prefer the bear market before each halving. In a bear market, you can hold quality assets at very low prices, and profits are easier to maximize during the transition between bulls and bears. The latter half of this bull market happens to coincide with the transition and stabilization of new and old powers in the United States, as well as the high control of capital led by Musk, greatly increasing the risks of short to medium-term trading. For now, I can only continue to endure.

Since April 2024, I have traveled through a large part of China, making six or seven trips back and forth to Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, and I am tired of it. Almost every time there is a crash, I am on the journey, unable to enjoy sightseeing, and I have not truly relaxed.

I have not touched a computer for 13 months, and I am preparing to buy a new one to get back to coding when I have time, shifting my focus during this sluggish market. After the divorce, although I am free, my heart has become fragile. Many years ago, my greatest wish was to achieve financial freedom and then get divorced. Although this bull market has allowed me to achieve that, I leave with a scarred heart, filled with melancholy wherever I go, and not happiness.

Having persisted for so long in one go, I am really a bit tired. If I were to fall asleep and never wake up, it would rather be a kind of relief.

[Looking forward to the general direction of the second half of the year] Looking forward is generally regarded as a boost for entertainment purposes only.

After the wash in April, BTC is now in a good upward structure. The upper track of the boll of the weekly MACD has extended to around 80,250, which is the new high point of the next 10,000-point space. The weekly oscillation in the large box of 73,800-55,600 has lasted for 13 weeks. I personally think that it will fluctuate for 3-4 weeks at most, and then a new round of unilateral rise will begin, with the target of 80,000 US dollars. In the short term, the price is suppressed, mainly due to the suppression of the hawkish voice of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, the price would have stabilized at 73,800 and hit the 80,000 mark. Because the interest rate cut in September is getting closer, the market is generally bullish, and China's bank interest rates are constantly falling. The idle funds of the middle class and above are so hot. Among all the financial assets in the world, BTC undoubtedly has the highest annual return rate. It is the long-term No. 1 and has a terrifying potential for growth. It can be seen that the Fed is deliberately suppressing its price, otherwise it will rise faster. The next climax will inevitably be during the US election. It will rise at the end of the year, and breaking 100,000 US dollars is an inevitable trend. Next year, it may reach the second peak of the double-peak bull market, and the price will inevitably move to the 12-150,000 US dollar range, and then this round of bull market cycle will end.

Compared with the same period, ETH has a stronger upward trend than BTC. At present, without much negative impact, 3660 has formed a gold support. I believe it will soon stand on 4,000 US dollars and move towards the goal of 5,000 US dollars. The price is expected to reach 6-8k US dollars in the third and fourth quarters.

Sol is the new favorite of Wall Street capital in this round of bear-bull cycle. The short-term contract profit effect has always been very strong. From 32 US dollars in October last year to 206 US dollars this year, it has been long, with thousands of large and small transactions. It can be said that its sheepskin has been plucked to bleed. Twitter was also popular because of it. This coin will continue to do so. After the sideways fluctuations in the second quarter, Sol is ready to go. If Sol breaks above 200 again, it will directly break through the highest point of the previous bull market of 250 and reach 300. I believe that the highest point of this bull market should be between 800-3000 US dollars. Its trend is a replica of the previous round of ETH. The future is promising!

I heard that Mr. Banmuxia suffered a floating loss of 70% this time.

My first reaction was that it was unlikely, could it be fake news?

Because his main position should still be big cakes, the retracement is not very large.

In front of the demigod, I dare not act rashly.

Just because many people have experienced large retracements recently, let me talk about my own thoughts.

There are generally two situations for large retracements in accounts during this period.

The first is gamblers who do contracts. Unfortunately, they use unreasonable positions to open more and do not have reasonable stop losses.

The second position ratio is not mainstream, and they cannot resist risks. They are all heavily invested in some weak cottages, and the decline has reached 70% or even 80%.

I have nothing to say about the former.

Remember that I sent a tweet at the beginning of the month, clearly telling you that April is an article with great volatility.

You can see 50,000 and 80,000. Don't use any leverage, it will lure you into long and short positions until you cry.

During this period, you ignore all pressure levels and rise, and ignore all support levels.

The feeling of heaven and hell in one thought, do you feel it?

Since the ETF was passed, the rhythm of the market has become extremely chaotic.

Countless historical experience laws have been broken, leaving us in the wind.

I can actually understand why many people are trapped at high positions.

Because there is no exception in history, after the price breaks through the previous high, it is followed by the crazy cottage season.

I still remember that countless people told you in early March that the cottage season is coming soon, and it is too late to get on the train.

When the group is crazy, we as individuals are swept up, what is wrong?

Now that countries have passed ETFs one after another, this round of bull market is destined to continue for a long time.

The plunge in the past few days should be called the cottage 312 and the cottage 519. The big cake is actually just a simple callback.

At the same time, I also have a thought, that is, why the cottage and the big cake are in completely different states?

Because the passage of ETFs has injected a steady stream of fresh water into the big cake, and these fresh waters are locked in the big cake.

Unlike institutions and individuals, their funds are first bought into high-quality assets.

Therefore, the increase in the liquidity of the big cake and the lack of liquidity of the cottage are two coexisting current situations.

✅Unfinished next one

The 12-hour level returned to zero and started the 4- and 6-hour level pullback. The 1-day line's downward momentum weakened, and finally received 183 (168+17), and the resistance returned to 186 again. I breathed a sigh of relief. This means that 168 is the recent low. If it falls back to 170-168 again in the future, it will still be a chance to buy the bottom.

Every time the market is very weak, so weak that you want to open a short position, hold back and divert your attention to buy spot. Usually it won't take long before the market changes.