操舟若神
山高万仞，只登一步；此心光明，未来可期！
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The strategic reserves have all been signed, what else is there to worry about? Before Trump leaves office, there will be no mid-term selling. The U.S. government previously had nearly 200,000 BTC, close to 17 billion USD in potential selling pressure. Now that this deal is signed, that risk is eliminated. The BTC collected later will also enter the strategic reserves. Isn't this a form of implicit deflation? Only inflow, no outflow!
Short-term bearish, long-term bullish! As the strategic reserves at the state level are gradually passed, it will be real money being spent on this, which is a continuous increase, with demand exceeding the daily supply of 450 BTC!
It's like putting it into a black hole address, at the state level, ETF, and other countries following suit to build strategic reserves. While doing deflation, they are also increasing the supply. Once BTC is pushed to hundreds of thousands of USD, before Trump leaves office, they will sell part of it to alleviate a certain percentage of the debt owed to the U.S. Treasury.
We will specifically see the direction of the crypto summit tomorrow; there could be a reversal at any moment. Don’t let temporary fluctuations trick you into losing your core assets!
Fox Business News reporter Eleanor Terrett posted on platform X, stating that Trump's executive order established two different digital asset storage mechanisms:
1. Strategic Reserve, which only stores Bitcoin (BTC). The initial funding source comes from the approximately 200,000 Bitcoins obtained by the government through criminal and civil confiscations over the years. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick are authorized to explore ways to acquire more Bitcoin without increasing taxpayer burden, positioning it as a national-level digital value reserve.
2. Digital Asset Stockpile, which includes other digital assets besides Bitcoin—possibly including XRP, ADA, ETH, and SOL among others. The Treasury is responsible for “responsible management” of the digital assets held by the government. The government will only explore budget-neutral methods to purchase more Bitcoin and will not actively seek to increase the quantity of other digital assets in the stockpile. The executive order also requires a comprehensive audit of all digital assets currently held by the government to ensure asset management transparency.
#白宫首届加密货币峰会 #美国加密战略储备 #加密市场反弹
Short-term bearish, long-term bullish! As the strategic reserves at the state level are gradually passed, it will be real money being spent on this, which is a continuous increase, with demand exceeding the daily supply of 450 BTC!
It's like putting it into a black hole address, at the state level, ETF, and other countries following suit to build strategic reserves. While doing deflation, they are also increasing the supply. Once BTC is pushed to hundreds of thousands of USD, before Trump leaves office, they will sell part of it to alleviate a certain percentage of the debt owed to the U.S. Treasury.
We will specifically see the direction of the crypto summit tomorrow; there could be a reversal at any moment. Don’t let temporary fluctuations trick you into losing your core assets!
Fox Business News reporter Eleanor Terrett posted on platform X, stating that Trump's executive order established two different digital asset storage mechanisms:
1. Strategic Reserve, which only stores Bitcoin (BTC). The initial funding source comes from the approximately 200,000 Bitcoins obtained by the government through criminal and civil confiscations over the years. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick are authorized to explore ways to acquire more Bitcoin without increasing taxpayer burden, positioning it as a national-level digital value reserve.
2. Digital Asset Stockpile, which includes other digital assets besides Bitcoin—possibly including XRP, ADA, ETH, and SOL among others. The Treasury is responsible for “responsible management” of the digital assets held by the government. The government will only explore budget-neutral methods to purchase more Bitcoin and will not actively seek to increase the quantity of other digital assets in the stockpile. The executive order also requires a comprehensive audit of all digital assets currently held by the government to ensure asset management transparency.
#白宫首届加密货币峰会 #美国加密战略储备 #加密市场反弹
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After experiencing 2 rounds of bull and bear cycles, an 8-year veteran analyzes the layout strategy for altcoin season.
The altcoin season has officially begun. BTC's market cap percentage is declining; institutions are buying BTC while retail investors are entering altcoins.
The layout strategy for altcoin season is as follows:
Diversify layout across sectors and spread investments; if one side is dim, the other side may shine.
Six major popular sectors
1. Meme sector (In the last bull market, I invested in Doge, made ten times profit, then bought Shib. After earning from Shib, I diversified into animal coins, buying Big Pig and RACA. The asset peak for the meme sector reached over 5 million. Small investments can yield high returns. The layout strategy for the meme sector is strong narratives, strong players, and a thick pool.)
2. DeFi sector (The leader is UNI; other DEXs on different chains are also good. This time, the SOL chain's RAY, which I invested in, has significantly outperformed UNI. A sector can be paired with one leader + 2 dark horse coins to increase overall return rates. The subdomain RWA is also good.)
The layout strategy for altcoin season is as follows:
Diversify layout across sectors and spread investments; if one side is dim, the other side may shine.
Six major popular sectors
1. Meme sector (In the last bull market, I invested in Doge, made ten times profit, then bought Shib. After earning from Shib, I diversified into animal coins, buying Big Pig and RACA. The asset peak for the meme sector reached over 5 million. Small investments can yield high returns. The layout strategy for the meme sector is strong narratives, strong players, and a thick pool.)
2. DeFi sector (The leader is UNI; other DEXs on different chains are also good. This time, the SOL chain's RAY, which I invested in, has significantly outperformed UNI. A sector can be paired with one leader + 2 dark horse coins to increase overall return rates. The subdomain RWA is also good.)
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Hold steady $DOT , obtain ETF through reduction
On March 7, the SEC's official website showed that 21Shares has submitted an updated version of its spot Polkadot ETF S-1 application to the SEC.
On March 7, the SEC's official website showed that 21Shares has submitted an updated version of its spot Polkadot ETF S-1 application to the SEC.
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Hold steady $APT , apply for ETF successfully, hold steady Move language family, $MOVE , $SUI
On March 6, Bitwise officially submitted the S-1 application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to register for the potential launch of the Aptos ETF, marking the first step towards launching the Aptos ETF in the U.S. market. Aptos is seeking to launch a U.S.-listed ETF in collaboration with major asset management companies, making Aptos one of the few cryptocurrency protocols globally to achieve this milestone. Prior to this, Bitwise had already launched the Aptos Staking ETP on the Swiss Stock Exchange in November 2024, enabling staking of Aptos tokens.
On March 6, Bitwise officially submitted the S-1 application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to register for the potential launch of the Aptos ETF, marking the first step towards launching the Aptos ETF in the U.S. market. Aptos is seeking to launch a U.S.-listed ETF in collaboration with major asset management companies, making Aptos one of the few cryptocurrency protocols globally to achieve this milestone. Prior to this, Bitwise had already launched the Aptos Staking ETP on the Swiss Stock Exchange in November 2024, enabling staking of Aptos tokens.
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Hold $APT . According to market news, Bitwise Aptos ETF has been registered in Delaware, USA.
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Hold steady $DOT , Nasdaq has submitted the 19b-4 application document for the Grayscale DOT ETF (Grayscale Polkadot Trust).
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Recent BTC price trend: Hold steady and wait for new highs before reducing positions by a certain percentage
1. FTX paid compensation funds on the 18th, entered the market, and brought incremental funds
2. Michigan proposed to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, becoming the 20th state to promote crypto reserve legislation! Strategic reserves bring new incremental demand
3. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict ended and peace talks began
4. The recent major negative factors have landed, Japan has raised interest rates, the United States has not cut interest rates, Trump's tariffs, non-agricultural data, CPI data and other uncertainties have landed one after another
5. ETFs will resume net inflows next week
It is tentatively scheduled to reduce positions by a certain percentage before the US interest rate meeting in March!
1. FTX paid compensation funds on the 18th, entered the market, and brought incremental funds
2. Michigan proposed to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, becoming the 20th state to promote crypto reserve legislation! Strategic reserves bring new incremental demand
3. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict ended and peace talks began
4. The recent major negative factors have landed, Japan has raised interest rates, the United States has not cut interest rates, Trump's tariffs, non-agricultural data, CPI data and other uncertainties have landed one after another
5. ETFs will resume net inflows next week
It is tentatively scheduled to reduce positions by a certain percentage before the US interest rate meeting in March!
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There was selling pressure on ETFs at that time. Trump's policy is beneficial in the medium and long term.
分析师舒琴
--
Trump takes office, will the cryptocurrency market surge tonight? Let me share my opinion.
1. First of all, let's refer to similar positive events. There was a similar market in January last year. On January 11, 2024, Bitcoin ETF was approved and listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Bitcoin suddenly pulled a line up, and then the positive news was exhausted and began to pull back for 2 weeks. Then there was the Cancun upgrade of ETH in March, and ETH+BTC both took off.
If this positive event also follows this rule, then BTC will suddenly pull a line tonight, and then pull back for 2 weeks, and may pull back by 10-20%, and then continue to rise with the Prague upgrade in March.
2. But will Bitcoin definitely start to plummet after the positive news is exhausted? We can refer to the market when Trump won the election on November 6. At that time, the cryptocurrency market did not plummet, but accelerated its rise from 60,000 to 100,000.
The difference is that ETF is a deterministic positive, and people have already priced in, so the currency price starts to pull back after the positive news is exhausted. Trump's victory is not very certain. This is a sudden positive news, which was not expected by the public (Price in), so it started to surge.
Then the focus tonight is whether Trump will mention the positive news related to Bitcoin. If not, BTC may really pull back. If he does, especially if he plans to build a Bitcoin reserve, I believe BTC will be very scary.
My personal operation is that in view of the current surge in the currency circle, I will take profit of high-risk contract positions tonight, clear all Doge, and see if there is a chance of a pullback before entering the market, while the spot/2x positions will be kept in case there is no pullback and it goes straight to the sky, especially ETH, waiting for Prague upgrade.
I think it's better for everyone to listen to Trump's speech tonight and operate more in real time.
In the short term, Sol took profit at nearly 300 yesterday, saying that there would be a pullback before taking it up. As a result, it fell to 229 this morning, which was really a pleasant surprise.
In addition, our BTC contract was opened at 103,000, and ETH was bottomed at 3,200. We still performed well in this volatile market. Benqin updates the operation in real time every day~
1. First of all, let's refer to similar positive events. There was a similar market in January last year. On January 11, 2024, Bitcoin ETF was approved and listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Bitcoin suddenly pulled a line up, and then the positive news was exhausted and began to pull back for 2 weeks. Then there was the Cancun upgrade of ETH in March, and ETH+BTC both took off.
If this positive event also follows this rule, then BTC will suddenly pull a line tonight, and then pull back for 2 weeks, and may pull back by 10-20%, and then continue to rise with the Prague upgrade in March.
2. But will Bitcoin definitely start to plummet after the positive news is exhausted? We can refer to the market when Trump won the election on November 6. At that time, the cryptocurrency market did not plummet, but accelerated its rise from 60,000 to 100,000.
The difference is that ETF is a deterministic positive, and people have already priced in, so the currency price starts to pull back after the positive news is exhausted. Trump's victory is not very certain. This is a sudden positive news, which was not expected by the public (Price in), so it started to surge.
Then the focus tonight is whether Trump will mention the positive news related to Bitcoin. If not, BTC may really pull back. If he does, especially if he plans to build a Bitcoin reserve, I believe BTC will be very scary.
My personal operation is that in view of the current surge in the currency circle, I will take profit of high-risk contract positions tonight, clear all Doge, and see if there is a chance of a pullback before entering the market, while the spot/2x positions will be kept in case there is no pullback and it goes straight to the sky, especially ETH, waiting for Prague upgrade.
I think it's better for everyone to listen to Trump's speech tonight and operate more in real time.
In the short term, Sol took profit at nearly 300 yesterday, saying that there would be a pullback before taking it up. As a result, it fell to 229 this morning, which was really a pleasant surprise.
In addition, our BTC contract was opened at 103,000, and ETH was bottomed at 3,200. We still performed well in this volatile market. Benqin updates the operation in real time every day~
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Get Trump into office
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First, observe the situation after Trump takes office on January 20 and whether to reduce positions. The Japan meeting on January 24 poses interest rate risks, do not be fully invested.
The probability of the U.S. establishing a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025 is 48%. According to ChainCatcher reports, the prediction market Polymarket data shows that the probability of the U.S. establishing a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025 is 48%. This prediction contract has a trading volume of $121,145 and will expire at the end of 2025.
The probability of the U.S. establishing a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025 is 48%. According to ChainCatcher reports, the prediction market Polymarket data shows that the probability of the U.S. establishing a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025 is 48%. This prediction contract has a trading volume of $121,145 and will expire at the end of 2025.
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Enduring until Trump takes office
Quoted content has been removed
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$BIO
Caution with spot trading, airdrop premium is too high, currently experiencing a sell-off, 50% of public offering is directly unlocked, the remaining 50% is unlocked monthly.
There are two rounds of private placement, raising a total of 2.3 million USD, with valuations of 35 million USD and 69 million USD respectively; there are three rounds of public offering (i.e., BIO Genesis auction), raising a total of 27.9 million USD, with valuations of 85 million USD / 142 million USD / 219 million USD in the three rounds.
Private placement investors: account for 13.60% of total supply; public offering investors: account for 20.00% of total supply. The costs are as follows: Private Placement · Pre-seed round: cost approximately 0.01054 USD, current floating profit 91.62 times;
In the seed round: cost approximately 0.02078 USD, current floating profit 46.48 times;
Public Offering · Round 1: cost approximately 0.0256 USD, current floating profit 37.73 times; ·
Round 2: cost approximately 0.04277 USD, current floating profit 22.58 times; ·
Round 3: cost approximately 0.06596 USD, current floating profit 14.64 times.
Caution with spot trading, airdrop premium is too high, currently experiencing a sell-off, 50% of public offering is directly unlocked, the remaining 50% is unlocked monthly.
There are two rounds of private placement, raising a total of 2.3 million USD, with valuations of 35 million USD and 69 million USD respectively; there are three rounds of public offering (i.e., BIO Genesis auction), raising a total of 27.9 million USD, with valuations of 85 million USD / 142 million USD / 219 million USD in the three rounds.
Private placement investors: account for 13.60% of total supply; public offering investors: account for 20.00% of total supply. The costs are as follows: Private Placement · Pre-seed round: cost approximately 0.01054 USD, current floating profit 91.62 times;
In the seed round: cost approximately 0.02078 USD, current floating profit 46.48 times;
Public Offering · Round 1: cost approximately 0.0256 USD, current floating profit 37.73 times; ·
Round 2: cost approximately 0.04277 USD, current floating profit 22.58 times; ·
Round 3: cost approximately 0.06596 USD, current floating profit 14.64 times.
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This operation is possible
$BIO very comfortable, opened a small position with ten times leverage this morning, made 150%, reduced position once for every 20% profit, so爽了
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Comrades, the Wind Has Changed!
January 4, 2025
[1] Fundamental Analysis
1. Focus on Global Financial Data and Events:
(1) On January 29, 2025, Today's Probability of No Interest Rate Cut: 89.3% (Pay Attention to Risks in Late January, Hedge in Advance)
(2) Geopolitics: Israel and Hamas Attend Ceasefire Negotiations in Doha. (Today's Gold Price: 2639.5U)
(3) USD/JPY Exchange Rate: 157.29 (Interest Rate Hike Risk at the End of January, Interest Rate Spread Trading, Hedge in Advance)
(4) Non-Farm Payroll Data Arrives on January 10th (Uncertainty Risk, Observe Market 1-3 Days in Advance to Hedge a Certain Proportion of Positions)
(5) On January 4th, according to official news, MicroStrategy is seeking to raise $2 billion by selling preferred stock to advance its previously announced '21/21 Plan' to raise $42 billion over three years for purchasing Bitcoin.
[1] Fundamental Analysis
1. Focus on Global Financial Data and Events:
(1) On January 29, 2025, Today's Probability of No Interest Rate Cut: 89.3% (Pay Attention to Risks in Late January, Hedge in Advance)
(2) Geopolitics: Israel and Hamas Attend Ceasefire Negotiations in Doha. (Today's Gold Price: 2639.5U)
(3) USD/JPY Exchange Rate: 157.29 (Interest Rate Hike Risk at the End of January, Interest Rate Spread Trading, Hedge in Advance)
(4) Non-Farm Payroll Data Arrives on January 10th (Uncertainty Risk, Observe Market 1-3 Days in Advance to Hedge a Certain Proportion of Positions)
(5) On January 4th, according to official news, MicroStrategy is seeking to raise $2 billion by selling preferred stock to advance its previously announced '21/21 Plan' to raise $42 billion over three years for purchasing Bitcoin.
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Misleading students, FTX's money has started to accompany them
$ETH
Ether late night analysis
Brothers, I really didn't expect it to rise all the way without looking back. The general trend was indeed bearish at that time.
Now the brothers who are short, hold on, don't cut your losses, it depends on whether it can be adjusted tonight.
I will send the exact profit point when it is adjusted. The big cake drives the second cake to keep pulling. It is impossible not to pull it all the way to the highest rise so that the longs can keep making profits.
Then the brothers who are short will be trapped. It will definitely fall at that time, and then directly plunge. At that time, I will tell you exactly where to close.
3599 is a very strong resistance level.
I will continue to post and tell you the points. Hold firmly and don't panic.
Follow my ideas, basically eat meat every day, no one is invincible here.
I have many years of real trading experience, experienced three rounds of bull and bear alternations, and five years of contract experience in professional unwinding. If you like Xiao Qin, please pay attention.
$ETH
Ether late night analysis
Brothers, I really didn't expect it to rise all the way without looking back. The general trend was indeed bearish at that time.
Now the brothers who are short, hold on, don't cut your losses, it depends on whether it can be adjusted tonight.
I will send the exact profit point when it is adjusted. The big cake drives the second cake to keep pulling. It is impossible not to pull it all the way to the highest rise so that the longs can keep making profits.
Then the brothers who are short will be trapped. It will definitely fall at that time, and then directly plunge. At that time, I will tell you exactly where to close.
3599 is a very strong resistance level.
I will continue to post and tell you the points. Hold firmly and don't panic.
Follow my ideas, basically eat meat every day, no one is invincible here.
I have many years of real trading experience, experienced three rounds of bull and bear alternations, and five years of contract experience in professional unwinding. If you like Xiao Qin, please pay attention.
$ETH
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Three major incremental funds have arrived. FTX officially begins compensation of 16 billion U, institutions resume large ETF net inflow, and MSTR continues to purchase 2 billion U worth of $BTC
On January 4, according to official news, the FTX debtor reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025. To qualify for distribution, customers and other creditors must complete pre-distribution conditions, including selecting a distribution agent on the FTX debtor customer portal page. The initial distribution will be made to holders with approved claims in the plan within 60 days after the effective date (January 3, 2025). According to the FTX plan, the first batch of 'Convenience Classes' users will receive compensation first, including users with claims of $50,000 or less. Registration and payment dates for other categories of claims will be announced later. The FTX debtor reminds customers to always be vigilant against phishing emails that may look like FTX debtors, as well as scam websites that may appear to be from channels resembling the FTX debtor customer portal.
On January 4, according to Farside Investors data, ARK's ARKB had a net inflow of $222 million yesterday, and Bitwise's BITB had a net inflow of $61.1 million. In addition, VanEck's HODL had a net inflow of $5.6 million, and Grayscale's mini BTC had a net inflow of $8.7 million.
#FTT赔款 #BTC走势分析 #ETFvsBTC
MicroStrategy announced plans to issue up to $2 billion in perpetual preferred shares through a public underwriting. (At current prices, this could buy over 20,000 BTC)
The preferred shares may have features such as being convertible to Class A common stock, paying cash dividends, and having redemption provisions. This fundraising is part of the company's '21/21 Plan,' aimed at strengthening the balance sheet and further increasing Bitcoin holdings.
The issuance is expected to take place in the first quarter of 2025, but whether it will proceed and the final terms will depend on market and other factors, and the company may not pursue this issuance.
On January 4, according to official news, the FTX debtor reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025. To qualify for distribution, customers and other creditors must complete pre-distribution conditions, including selecting a distribution agent on the FTX debtor customer portal page. The initial distribution will be made to holders with approved claims in the plan within 60 days after the effective date (January 3, 2025). According to the FTX plan, the first batch of 'Convenience Classes' users will receive compensation first, including users with claims of $50,000 or less. Registration and payment dates for other categories of claims will be announced later. The FTX debtor reminds customers to always be vigilant against phishing emails that may look like FTX debtors, as well as scam websites that may appear to be from channels resembling the FTX debtor customer portal.
On January 4, according to Farside Investors data, ARK's ARKB had a net inflow of $222 million yesterday, and Bitwise's BITB had a net inflow of $61.1 million. In addition, VanEck's HODL had a net inflow of $5.6 million, and Grayscale's mini BTC had a net inflow of $8.7 million.
#FTT赔款 #BTC走势分析 #ETFvsBTC
MicroStrategy announced plans to issue up to $2 billion in perpetual preferred shares through a public underwriting. (At current prices, this could buy over 20,000 BTC)
The preferred shares may have features such as being convertible to Class A common stock, paying cash dividends, and having redemption provisions. This fundraising is part of the company's '21/21 Plan,' aimed at strengthening the balance sheet and further increasing Bitcoin holdings.
The issuance is expected to take place in the first quarter of 2025, but whether it will proceed and the final terms will depend on market and other factors, and the company may not pursue this issuance.
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#BIO Pulling out the shorts
1. The first wave of selling pressure from the public offering and Binance airdrop has been exhausted
2. Binance 8:15 contract
3. Institutional endorsement, Binance Labs investment
4. Desci track leader, temporarily looking at 1U start
1. The first wave of selling pressure from the public offering and Binance airdrop has been exhausted
2. Binance 8:15 contract
3. Institutional endorsement, Binance Labs investment
4. Desci track leader, temporarily looking at 1U start
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January 3, 2025
[I] Fundamental analysis
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) January 29, 2025, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 88.8% (pay attention to risks in late January and avoid risks in advance)
(2) Geopolitics: US media reported a secret meeting at the White House: If Iran accelerates the development of nuclear facilities, Biden may launch a strike before leaving office. (Today's gold price is 2659.8U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 157.25 (There is a risk of interest rate hike at the end of January, carry trading, early risk aversion)
(4) Non-agricultural data on January 10th (uncertainty risk)
[II] On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 74 (up 4 from yesterday), BTC funding rate 0.01%, Google search trend 29, option pain point 97000U
(2) ETF dynamics: BTC negative inflow of 2620 yesterday; ETH resumed negative inflow of 21,300 (pay attention to risks)
(3) Mining data analysis: 878.74eh/s, handling fee 4.39 gas: 3 S19 shutdown coin price: 63788-92324U
(5) BTC market value accounts for 56.17% (down 0.02% from yesterday), ETH market value accounts for 12.22%, and the altcoin rebounded and followed the rise;
(6) Review of the main logic of today's fluctuations: daily line breakthrough, liquidity recovery after New Year's Day
(7) BTC support level: 95105-95529 BTC pressure level: 97930-98381
(8) USDC Treasury minted a total of 400 million USDC this morning. Subsequently, it transferred 300 million USDC to Coinbase.
(9) Trading philosophy: follow conscience, butcher the cow, follow the trend, and don't be tempted by the rise and fall of the coin price!
Today's trading technique: plan before you act. Calm down before trading, light incense, sit quietly for 15 minutes to think about the trading strategy, drink tea until your mind is clear, write the trading plan in your mind into a document, send it to CHATGPT, apply Bayesian theorem to analyze the probability of winning, and ask whether the altcoin to be built can outperform the cyclical growth of BTC!
【Three】
Main potential positives in the near future
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (effective on January 3, 16 billion U)
2. Liquidity recovery after New Year's Day (institutions start new fiscal year layout)
3. MicroStrategy continues to resume coin purchases after the holiday (19,400 BTC purchased last week)
Main potential negatives in the near future
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Uncertainty before non-agricultural data (January 10, observe the market 3-5 days in advance)
#BIO将上线币安 #2025有哪些关键叙事？ #MicroStrategy增持BTC
[I] Fundamental analysis
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) January 29, 2025, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 88.8% (pay attention to risks in late January and avoid risks in advance)
(2) Geopolitics: US media reported a secret meeting at the White House: If Iran accelerates the development of nuclear facilities, Biden may launch a strike before leaving office. (Today's gold price is 2659.8U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 157.25 (There is a risk of interest rate hike at the end of January, carry trading, early risk aversion)
(4) Non-agricultural data on January 10th (uncertainty risk)
[II] On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 74 (up 4 from yesterday), BTC funding rate 0.01%, Google search trend 29, option pain point 97000U
(2) ETF dynamics: BTC negative inflow of 2620 yesterday; ETH resumed negative inflow of 21,300 (pay attention to risks)
(3) Mining data analysis: 878.74eh/s, handling fee 4.39 gas: 3 S19 shutdown coin price: 63788-92324U
(5) BTC market value accounts for 56.17% (down 0.02% from yesterday), ETH market value accounts for 12.22%, and the altcoin rebounded and followed the rise;
(6) Review of the main logic of today's fluctuations: daily line breakthrough, liquidity recovery after New Year's Day
(7) BTC support level: 95105-95529 BTC pressure level: 97930-98381
(8) USDC Treasury minted a total of 400 million USDC this morning. Subsequently, it transferred 300 million USDC to Coinbase.
(9) Trading philosophy: follow conscience, butcher the cow, follow the trend, and don't be tempted by the rise and fall of the coin price!
Today's trading technique: plan before you act. Calm down before trading, light incense, sit quietly for 15 minutes to think about the trading strategy, drink tea until your mind is clear, write the trading plan in your mind into a document, send it to CHATGPT, apply Bayesian theorem to analyze the probability of winning, and ask whether the altcoin to be built can outperform the cyclical growth of BTC!
【Three】
Main potential positives in the near future
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (effective on January 3, 16 billion U)
2. Liquidity recovery after New Year's Day (institutions start new fiscal year layout)
3. MicroStrategy continues to resume coin purchases after the holiday (19,400 BTC purchased last week)
Main potential negatives in the near future
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Uncertainty before non-agricultural data (January 10, observe the market 3-5 days in advance)
#BIO将上线币安 #2025有哪些关键叙事？ #MicroStrategy增持BTC
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January 2, 2025
[I] Fundamental analysis
Crypto insider, butchering the cow 1/1
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 88.8% (pay attention to risks in late January, hedge in advance)
(2) Geopolitical: The risk of a larger-scale conflict in the Middle East in 2025 is rising (today's gold price is 2633.14U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 156.87 (there is a risk of interest rate hikes at the end of January, carry trading, hedge in advance)
(4) Non-agricultural data is coming on Friday (uncertainty risk)
II On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 70 (up 4 from yesterday), BTC funding rate 0.01%, Google search trend 29
(2) ETF dynamics: BTC resumed inflow of 57.15 on Tuesday; ETH resumed net inflow of 10,700 (depending on the net inflow on Thursday, adjusting the strategy)
(3) Mining data analysis: 878.74eh/s, handling fee 4.39 gas:3 S19 shutdown coin price: 63788-92324U
(5) BTC market value accounts for 56.19% (down 0.6% from yesterday), ETH market value accounts for 12.25%, and the altcoin rebounded and followed the rise;
(6) Review of the main logic of today's fluctuations: Reversal after New Year's Day, whether it is really a change in the market will be confirmed after the opening of the US stock market in the evening
(7) Take profit 97500U, stop loss 94789 (depending on the opening of the US stock market)
(8) Trading philosophy: Follow your conscience, butcher an ox, follow the trend, and don’t be tempted by the rise and fall of the currency price!
Today's trading technique: plan before you act. Calm down before trading, light incense, sit quietly for 15 minutes to think about trading strategies, drink tea until your mind is clear, write the trading plan in your mind into a document, send it to CHATGPT, and apply Bayes' theorem to analyze the probability of winning
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (effective on January 3, 16 billion U)
2. Liquidity recovery after New Year's Day (institutions start new fiscal year layout)
3. Microstrategy continues to resume coin purchases after the holiday (19,400 BTC were purchased last week)
Recent potential negatives
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Uncertainty before non-agricultural data
Small order test risk
#比特币走势观察 #2025有哪些关键叙事？
[I] Fundamental analysis
Crypto insider, butchering the cow 1/1
I Focus on global financial data and events:
(1) January 29, 25, the probability of no interest rate cut today is 88.8% (pay attention to risks in late January, hedge in advance)
(2) Geopolitical: The risk of a larger-scale conflict in the Middle East in 2025 is rising (today's gold price is 2633.14U)
(3) US-Japan exchange rate: 156.87 (there is a risk of interest rate hikes at the end of January, carry trading, hedge in advance)
(4) Non-agricultural data is coming on Friday (uncertainty risk)
II On-chain data and market sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 70 (up 4 from yesterday), BTC funding rate 0.01%, Google search trend 29
(2) ETF dynamics: BTC resumed inflow of 57.15 on Tuesday; ETH resumed net inflow of 10,700 (depending on the net inflow on Thursday, adjusting the strategy)
(3) Mining data analysis: 878.74eh/s, handling fee 4.39 gas:3 S19 shutdown coin price: 63788-92324U
(5) BTC market value accounts for 56.19% (down 0.6% from yesterday), ETH market value accounts for 12.25%, and the altcoin rebounded and followed the rise;
(6) Review of the main logic of today's fluctuations: Reversal after New Year's Day, whether it is really a change in the market will be confirmed after the opening of the US stock market in the evening
(7) Take profit 97500U, stop loss 94789 (depending on the opening of the US stock market)
(8) Trading philosophy: Follow your conscience, butcher an ox, follow the trend, and don’t be tempted by the rise and fall of the currency price!
Today's trading technique: plan before you act. Calm down before trading, light incense, sit quietly for 15 minutes to think about trading strategies, drink tea until your mind is clear, write the trading plan in your mind into a document, send it to CHATGPT, and apply Bayes' theorem to analyze the probability of winning
Recent potential positives
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (effective on January 3, 16 billion U)
2. Liquidity recovery after New Year's Day (institutions start new fiscal year layout)
3. Microstrategy continues to resume coin purchases after the holiday (19,400 BTC were purchased last week)
Recent potential negatives
1. Japan's next interest rate hike backstab (January/March)
2. The United States suspends interest rate cuts (January)
3. Uncertainty before non-agricultural data
Small order test risk
#比特币走势观察 #2025有哪些关键叙事？
See original
2025 Year Start of a Bull Market
Crypto Insider, Butcher Dissects the Beef 1/1
One Focus on Global Economic Data and Events:
(1) January 29, 2025, today the probability of not lowering interest rates is 90.4% (be cautious of risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Stable (Today's gold price 2624.63 USD)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.87 (risk of interest rate hike at the end of January)
Two On-Chain Data and Market Sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 66, Google search trend 29
(2) ETF dynamics: Yesterday BTC inflow recovered to 57.15; ETH net inflow recovered to 10,700
(3) Mining data analysis: 878.74 EH/s, transaction fee 4.39, gas: 3, S19 shutdown coin price: 63788-92324 USD
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.001% (normal)
(5) BTC market cap share: 56.8%
(6) Today's volatility main logic review: US stock market correction, institutional ETF dumping, New Year's Day low-volume market
(8) Trading philosophy: Be true to your conscience, nothing exists outside your mind, go with the trend, don't be swayed by price fluctuations!
Today's trading technique: The mountain is high and steep, but only one step to climb! Approaching the end of the adjustment, first establish a bottom position, then gradually correct to a reasonable holding range, keep spot error within 10%, mainstream contract error within 3%, altcoin contract error within 5%
Recent Potential Positive Factors
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (effective January 3, 16 billion USD)
2. Liquidity recovery after New Year (institutions beginning to layout for the new fiscal year)
3. MicroStrategy continues to purchase coins after the holiday (last week purchased 19,400 BTC)
Recent Potential Negative Factors
1. Japan's next interest rate hike betrayal (January/March)
2. The US pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Uncertainty before non-farm payroll data
#2025有哪些关键叙事？ #比特币战略储备 #2025比特币价格预测
Crypto Insider, Butcher Dissects the Beef 1/1
One Focus on Global Economic Data and Events:
(1) January 29, 2025, today the probability of not lowering interest rates is 90.4% (be cautious of risks in late January)
(2) Geopolitics: Stable (Today's gold price 2624.63 USD)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.87 (risk of interest rate hike at the end of January)
Two On-Chain Data and Market Sentiment:
(1) Market sentiment analysis: 66, Google search trend 29
(2) ETF dynamics: Yesterday BTC inflow recovered to 57.15; ETH net inflow recovered to 10,700
(3) Mining data analysis: 878.74 EH/s, transaction fee 4.39, gas: 3, S19 shutdown coin price: 63788-92324 USD
(4) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.001% (normal)
(5) BTC market cap share: 56.8%
(6) Today's volatility main logic review: US stock market correction, institutional ETF dumping, New Year's Day low-volume market
(8) Trading philosophy: Be true to your conscience, nothing exists outside your mind, go with the trend, don't be swayed by price fluctuations!
Today's trading technique: The mountain is high and steep, but only one step to climb! Approaching the end of the adjustment, first establish a bottom position, then gradually correct to a reasonable holding range, keep spot error within 10%, mainstream contract error within 3%, altcoin contract error within 5%
Recent Potential Positive Factors
1. FTX compensation funds entering the market (effective January 3, 16 billion USD)
2. Liquidity recovery after New Year (institutions beginning to layout for the new fiscal year)
3. MicroStrategy continues to purchase coins after the holiday (last week purchased 19,400 BTC)
Recent Potential Negative Factors
1. Japan's next interest rate hike betrayal (January/March)
2. The US pauses interest rate cuts (January)
3. Uncertainty before non-farm payroll data
#2025有哪些关键叙事？ #比特币战略储备 #2025比特币价格预测
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