熟透的苦瓜

什么是交易纪律？什么是执行力？为什么我们不停的犯下相同的错误？核心问题就是认知出错，存在侥幸心理，对市场太天真。没有意识到市场是动态的，不停变换的。一根大k线就能打破结构，三根k线就能改变信仰。这不是笑话，这是冰冷的现实！

做交易就要认清楚自己，明白自己有几斤几两，明白自己的定位了再谈其它。你一个散户韭菜，顶天也就用到4小时周期，基本上就是拿1小时图做交易，15分钟进出。可你动不动就去看日线，周线，月线，有什么意义吗？那是庄家看的！是用来做布局的。你看那么远干嘛？
你为什么会去扛单，你为什么会爆仓？不就是你看了更大级别时间周期，固执的认为价格还没有走完。

很多人都在用指标，但是指标是有延迟的，甚至有时候指标还是相反的。指标最大的作用是用来估测大概的顶部区域和底部区域。在这个范围内通过仓位管理来建仓或者止盈。而不是非要找个精确的爆发点位。更不能去寻找交易圣杯！你以为换一种指标就能发财？天真！

止损，我们应该设置最大止损位（割肉线）在应该设置在形态反转的可能位置。你应该在这个位置画个标记，到这个位置了，含泪都要咬牙割肉走人！
再根据自己能承受的亏损来设置止损线做停止。
很多人都不设止损，妄图通过锁仓来扛回来。多空双开就是左脑打右脑，你对市场的判断解读力能支撑你这么干吗？我见过太多人锁到心烦气躁后一口气唆一边后最终大爆仓。

来到这个市场总想着从底部多上来，从顶部空下去。妄图从鱼头吃到鱼尾！多空双开我也不能说你错。多头趋势去做空，空头趋势去做多，性价比是最低的。在多头趋势的下跌是给你减仓用的，你要盯紧止跌位置进场。空头趋势上涨同样是用来止盈的。你要是非要买在最低点，卖在最高点，你纯属和自己过不去

Clearly a bunch of gamblers, yet they flatter themselves by calling themselves traders.

Imagine the United States as a retired senior official with a vast political network and significant social security funds, but whose descendants are ungrateful. Now this old official is nearing death, and his descendants are in a panic, trying various methods. Ultimately, they gave this old man an experimental drug injection and a breath of concentrated oxygen. The old man woke up again, and this family's human nuclear bomb came back to life. Therefore, from the perspective of the old man's descendants, this is a significant advantage. However, from the perspective of outsiders, it is quite the opposite.

It sounds like she thinks the United States can escape a global nuclear strike. The current nuclear strike is that if I am attacked, I will retaliate fully and drag everyone down with me. The Earth is about to be doomed, and you're going to buy stocks??? That's crazy.

As the heavens move vigorously, a gentleman should continuously strive for self-improvement. When trading cryptocurrencies, don't get caught up in long or short positions; just go with the flow. If there's a bullish trend, go long. If there's a bearish trend, go short. Don't miss out on a bullish trend to go short. Don't miss out on a bearish trend to go long. You will never know where the market will go; predicting trends is like trying to perform a miracle, you're more shameless than flipping a coin.

Only with clear thoughts and timely turns can one escape the sea of suffering.

Today's decline should be caused by Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond surged 2% (inversely, higher yields indicate more selling). This is a slap in the face to the Trump administration. According to Trump's antics, there will definitely be a series of positive news released later. I've written a script for Trump. 1. First, secretly find someone to deal with Moody's and ask them to change it back. Can't solve the squid problem and can't handle you, Moody? 2. Send a tweet saying that a visit to China is planned. Regardless of whether the visit happens or not, use this positive news to offset the impact of Moody's downgrade. 3. Work with Powell on some PR strategies, letting some big-mouthed Fed officials make some irresponsible predictions, with various positive forecasts emerging. 4. Various big shots come out to say there are no problems with the U.S. economy, "Lumber, no problem! You have to believe in America, don’t run away, folks!"

Today the Greed Index is 76, indicating a rational bullish state. It hasn't reached the crazy bullish level of 90 yet. I remember last year when the price reached 105,000, the Greed Index soared to 90! Over the years, I have generally followed this indicator for the big trends. The only time I broke this habit was during Trump’s presidency; I went against it and heavily invested, which led to a massive liquidation after last year.

The method is quite simple, let me share it with you.
When the Greed Index reaches extreme greed at 90, on the daily chart, draw a line at the highest price point, using this price as a sell signal, meaning that once the price exceeds this line, I will reduce my position on the highs. However, based on the past few years of experience, once the Greed Index exceeds 90, it will enter the final frenzy state, and the price will continue to rise as if it has taken a spring tonic. Entering the final feast!

Generally, I am using the RSI indicator on the daily chart, and when it is overbought at 80, I will reduce my position to only 20% for betting on the final peak. Then I start to short with a Martingale strategy, shorting on the highs and gradually building a short position.

When the Fear Index enters extreme fear at 10, I similarly draw a line at the lowest price point that spans the entire chart, using this price as a buy signal. From then on, as long as the price drops below this line, I will short and reduce my position on the lows. Similarly, I will also start to go long and gradually build my long position.
I usually wait for the RSI to be oversold at 20 on the daily chart, and then I will short until I only have 20% left. Then I will start the Martingale strategy to go long.

Over the years, as long as I follow this pattern, I haven't encountered major issues.
Instead, every time I go against this rule to chase longs or shorts, I incur the most significant losses.

In trading, it’s impossible to buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point; that’s unrealistic.
Moreover, the dealer's layout is always long-term.

There’s a saying: bulls kill bulls, bears kill bears. This means that after bulls become greedy, they will become extremely greedy again. After bears experience fear, they will become extremely fearful.

There are no wounds that cannot be healed, no despair that cannot end; everything lost will return in another way. The things we care about, the places we get entangled in, the past we cannot let go of, may seem insignificant when we look back many years later. Look at those white clouds, gathering and dispersing, dispersing and gathering again. Look at those roses, blooming this year, blooming again next year.

Therefore, some past events need to be learned to let go of, some mistakes need to be learned to forgive oneself, and some hardships need to be learned to release oneself.

Look forward, be brave, my friends.

As a retail investor, you will always be the last to know the news, and it's the news that others want you to know! As an ignorant commoner, what makes you think you can predict the market? Is Trump your dad? Or is Powell your uncle? In this highly speculative market where there are no legal prohibitions, you're looking for fairness? Seeking regulation? That's just laughable. 🤣

Who told you that if the Nasdaq fell -2.5% on Monday, it would definitely crash on Tuesday? Can't it rise +2.5% on Tuesday? The Nasdaq fell so much on Monday, yet Bitcoin went up, what does that indicate? It indicates that insider trading is buying up stocks. Everyone with insider information is busy going long. Retail investors are still foolishly asking why it went up? 🤣, still firmly believing this is a manipulation to drive up prices for selling.
Now you're left dumbfounded for shorting, right? 🤣

You can't even predict whether the next candlestick will be red or green, so what makes you so sure about how things will go from here?

The market is always right; the mistake is yours!
Don't ask why it went up or why it went down.

If you can master the art of chasing highs and cutting losses, you are already quite impressive.

(Original, welcome to reprint or quote, please do not modify directly, thank you)
Use the mindset of war to create a trading plan. Trading is like an endless battlefield, where both sides continuously invest or consume various resources until one side falls.
Since the market is like a battlefield, there must be strategic expectations, tactical mid-term goals, and short-term goals on the battlefield. Therefore, in relation to the trading market, we must first have expected maximum goals and expected maximum losses. Secondly, we need to have combat means and self-rescue measures. Only then can we consider beliefs, ideals, or obsessions as psychological means.

Therefore, the daily and weekly highs and lows + divergences = expected strategic objectives (direction starting point). The 4-hour chart represents tactical objectives (direction), the 1-hour chart represents combat methods (fluctuations). The 15-minute to 1-minute charts represent the individual battlefield skills of the trader (indicator techniques).
In other words, your capital determines what level of commander you are or what level of soldier you are.

Thus, self-awareness is a crucial element.
If you are a soldier with small capital but are thinking about how to deploy troops like a general, trying to predict battlefield dynamics from the general's perspective to survive and get promoted, you are overthinking and looking too far ahead. You should first focus on how to survive tomorrow.

So, you can guess what the entire battlefield looks like and go with the flow. This growth can be slow and steady through spot trading or fast and explosive through high-leverage trading. Regardless of the method, as long as you grow and survive until the end, you are the victor, taking your spoils and leaving the battlefield for good, returning to enjoy your happy remainder of life.

Strive to live in this market, and only by firmly believing that this market can save you can you persist.

Now, let me share my specific method. This is not trading advice; you are responsible for your profits and losses. (Note: Do not use spot trading thinking for futures trading, because spot trading can exchange time, while futures trading exchanges life.)

Draw lines on the chart, using different lines and text to outline your plan, seeing it every day and flexibly and stubbornly executing it. Secure your stop-loss belt.

Learn to make your chart speak.
That's all.
Good luck.

Don't approach contracts with a spot mindset!!! I believe most people coming here are likely poor, and they come to this world's most risky trading market for high-risk assets with the idea of making a quick buck in the short term! Therefore, trading contracts with small amounts for large gains is the inevitable choice. There's nothing to be ashamed of; if you want to make money, don't hesitate! As long as the account is growing positively, it's fine. So, if you should go long, go long; if the direction changes, cut losses. If you should go short, go short; let it die. Instead of holding onto a position!
This is asking for death!

The market is chaotic! You can only respond passively.
You can guess what the future situation may be, but it doesn't mean it will definitely be that way.
So, after placing an order, set your take profit and stop loss, then don’t watch the market. Either take a small loss or a small profit. If you’re unwilling, just set a stop loss and take profits manually.
The scariest thing is not cutting losses when you're down, averaging down to a larger loss, and ultimately holding on until you’re completely wiped out!!!

Back to spot trading, some say that spot trading won’t lead to liquidation, and that’s true. But have you considered the time cost? Have you considered the capital cost? These sunk costs are invisible; they do exist!!!

Therefore, the logic of trading is very important.

Whether it’s stocks, futures of bulk commodities, gold, or foreign exchange, they all have fundamental values and trading logic. Only the cryptocurrency market is a global extreme risk market with no fundamental value or logic left, just speculation. You could say that if you come to this market, don’t talk about value investing; that’s like burning paper at a grave, fooling ghosts!

Since that’s the case, you should be making U.S. dollars; what are you doing holding onto coins?
The market manipulators love you fools who are always going long and always tearfully emotional.
Who can you move besides yourself? Besides disappointing your family, you disappoint many others.

Even now, many people still hold onto illusions, still carving the boat to seek the sword, clutching some data saying the bull is still there. I don't know what they truly think deep down?

Is the bull still there? Discussing this is meaningless. Holding onto a few broken data points and insisting that the bull is still there; fine, show your positions and profits.
Don’t say you’re going long while secretly shorting.

Are you playing with fools?

He, go away.

Warning ⚠️ (Reminding you to run, first hit the US stock market and then smash the cryptocurrency circle, do you think the rabbit is joking with you?) This is an article I posted earlier, I'm reposting it now,
still the familiar formula and familiar taste. Wherever the United States supports, China will give you a critical hit. After reaching a high in the cryptocurrency market in 2021, the Chinese government first expelled the computing power, then sold off the large amount of cryptocurrency held by the government, sending the cryptocurrency market into a bear market. Later, they announced that trading cryptocurrencies was illegal, directly pushing the cryptocurrency market into a long bear phase.

Let's take a look at the methods of deepseek, which are similar. First, they published hardware made with second-rate graphics cards and open-source software, proving that low-cost hardware + high-efficiency algorithms = most functions. They have washed out the bubble of AI in the US stock market. I speculate that China may announce some breakthrough in chip technology to strike against ASML.

Summary. Virtual currency is a government work plan of Trump, and the Chinese government is definitely brewing how to give the cryptocurrency market a heavy blow!

Everyone, be mentally prepared.
Get ready to escape the top.

"One Reluctance and One Greed"
Hurrying and stumbling on the road of trading. Panicked and drowned in the hustle and bustle of the sea of ​​coins, I have walked so far without realizing it.
Reality is so heartbreaking and helpless. 1 part of luck, 99 parts of thousands of cuts, I don't know how much silver I can get in exchange.
If the heart is not dead, the Tao will not be born, and if the desire is not extinguished, the Tao will not exist; if the heart is not bitter, the wisdom will not be opened, and if the body is not bitter, the fortune will not be thick;
No one's dissuasion will run you to enlightenment. The only things that can really make you wake up from a dream and see through the world are the losses you have suffered and the walls you have hit!
Only by putting yourself in a dead end and then surviving, and being trapped in a dead end and then surviving, can you climb up from the sea of ​​corpses and blood.
People cannot be awakened, and people can only wake up in pain. Whether you are awakened by punishment, awakened by shock, or awakened by a fall.

The road of trading is cruel and rich, with such contradictions and turbulent fluctuations, but it is full of fatal attraction.

Too much helplessness...

One unwillingness, one greed. When can I get ashore?

"Walking on Thin Ice, When Can I Get Ashore?"
The writing ends here. It's just a dream, and I am content with mediocrity. I would like to dedicate this article to all my friends who are walking alone.

The first half of life has ended, but there are still parents' kindness to be repaid, children's responsibilities to be fulfilled, and husbands and wives' wishes to be fulfilled. When will life get ashore? Everything I see is at a loss. Looking back on the past, I am grateful for my family's support and their support every time I was in desperate situations.

Life is often difficult, but the courage to turn the page and restart is not often there. I have been dealing with my inner heart for forty-three years, chasing dreams and ideals, hitting the wall several times, and finally I don't know when I can get ashore. Abandon it, but only seek peace with what comes.

Life is gentle. If it rains, let it go. Life stops and starts, one mountain after another, countless moments of insisting with tears, can only grit your teeth and insist. I don’t think I’m an excellent person, nor do I have enough financial knowledge and skills. I’ve been stumbling along the way, and I’ve never let myself go.

I’ve been writing short articles in the square for a while, and I don’t care about the praise or criticism of others, or the gains or losses. I’ve never taken orders, sold memberships, or cut leeks. I’m just entertaining myself and selling wine.

Here, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to all my friends for their company through this article.

Life is not easy, let’s encourage each other, and wish you all the best

"How Can Anyone Know Your Suffering"
How can anyone know your suffering, how can anyone understand your difficulties, how can anyone empathize with you and fully understand your pain.

We each have our own loneliness, we each have our own pain, we each have our own bitterness.

We stumbled all the way to the distance.

We are not unaware that this is a cannibalistic market, we are not unaware of what the ending here will be.

If we can make money in reality, I will not come to this shitty market.

What else can we do?

Some people come here with the money from the likes of food delivery

Some people come here with the money left by working frugally

Some people come here with mortgaged houses to seek a turnaround

Some people come here with online loans

Some people even come here with the money from selling their bodies

Here, more people come here with their own meager savings

Here,...

Here,
More people laugh at you as a rookie, insult you as a gambler,

Some people eat your blood-stained steamed buns but laugh at you for not having enough money to stop losses
Some people here even say that investing is risky, and taking orders is risky. If you lose, you don’t get compensation, but if you win, you have to share.

There are too many confused people here.
There are too many lost people here.

Is this hell or heaven?

《Salted Fish's Journey》

When I cross this mountain, I will tell you about my unbearable experience

That was the first time I encountered that mountain

Naturally, I couldn't listen to good advice

There are many people in the world who return empty-handed and lose interest.

Every night I lost, I was willing to do so

Later, I finally crossed that mountain

Only then did I find that the green water flows forever, the south wind remains the same,

Everything I see is myself

The mountain is still the same mountain, but the water is not the same water as before.

I am not the same person as before

When I cross this mountain,

I will tell you about my unbearable experience

"Xianyu Xinlu" Don't pursue a sense of security
1. We must accept the uncertainty of the market, the market's confusion and inexplicable.

2. We cannot pursue a sense of security in this highly uncertain market, it is immoral.

3. Don't pursue the best buying point and the highest selling point. No one knows what the result will be except the dealer.

4. Don't challenge the market with your ignorance and arrogance, it is meaningless.

5. The fundamental reason why you are nervous, indecisive, and trembling is that you are afraid of losing!

6. You must accept your stupidity and ignorance, try to reconcile with yourself, and accept your mediocrity.

7. Always remember that the indicator is a product delayed after the price has gone! You must accept the error of the indicator.

8. Choose a trading method that suits your personality, don't envy others, and don't think that he and I can do it.

9. Don't trust others casually. Maybe 99 people in the group are all agents, and you are the only one who is real!

10. The mistake is not in technology, but in your stubborn concept.

(Xianyu Xinlu) 《Waiting for the Wind》
Many people don't know how to take advantage of the east wind, but always choose to act recklessly when there is no opportunity, often accomplishing nothing, and finally only moving themselves.

Waiting for the wind.
Chasing dreams does not depend on how old you are, or whether you are brave or timid, passionate or indifferent.

Perhaps, everyone has a rough and sad period in their hearts. Maybe you have been glorious, or maybe you have been in a trough. Life cannot be smooth sailing. As long as you are not really at a dead end and want to jump off the building, you may stop and rest, change to a trading method that suits your heart, and respect yourself.

Waiting for the wind.
The road under your feet is important to take one step at a time. There are always people who expect to double the money they buy tomorrow, and they don't even look at the spot, and the contract 100 times can't stop it. You are too impatient. Maybe you do have many unavoidable difficulties that require you to quickly grow your wealth. However, if you run too fast, you will often fall half to death. Don't have survivor bias, always thinking that you can also get the wealth shown by some survivors who have survived a narrow escape.

Wait for the wind to come.
Actively pursue the direction of the wind, and opportunities are often obtained by your own initiative. How can you know where the points come from if you don't try.
There is no right or wrong in this market. If you think that the market that does not follow the routine is wrong, then you must be wrong.
Use countless small positions to try and make mistakes, and you will always think of the right one. Wait for the wind to come, won't you rise?

Wait for the wind to come

Let's encourage each other

"Salted Fish's Journey" (Be true to your heart and be determined)
The market is like a big river, vast and surging, flowing endlessly. Countless people make a living on the river. In the deep water of the river, there are luxury cruise ships singing and dancing; there are towering cargo ships loaded with containers; there are speedboats flying and cutting through the waves.
In the middle water area of ​​the river, there are passenger ships full of workers; there are roll-on/roll-off ships climbing with black smoke; there are empty ships running fast.
On the nearshore of the river, there are people driving broken boats to pull nets to catch fish; there are small sampans and light boats rippling;
On the shore, there are people fishing, playing in the water, swimming, and picking up water plants.
However, you have never seen the bottom of the water, where corpses are rolling.
Everyone has his own way in the river and uses his own tools to move forward, no matter what kind of...

You said that what I should consider is whether I can use the river to reach my destination, instead of considering where others' destination is!

Be yourself, don't be too picky.
Be confident, respect your heart, and be determined.

"Salted Fish Heart" (Choose to respect your own heart)

People often say that character determines destiny, so in this circle, character also determines how you operate.
The difference in everyone's personality will inevitably affect everyone's mentality and cognition.
Some people have a calm personality. Mount Tai collapses in front of them but their appearance remains unchanged. An elk thrives on the left but does not blink. It can be stable and not fluctuate due to price fluctuations.
Some people have an impatient personality, and their hatred will eventually return to the sea, while the bright moon will be ruthless but rise to the sky. When the price is guaranteed to be oversold, my mood will rise and fall completely with the price.
Some people are fond of taking the wrong side of things, and are accustomed to licking blood with the tip of a knife, destroying everything, leaving no way out for themselves, and pursuing a manly man. Either get rich or lose suddenly.
However, the vast majority of people in the world are ordinary people who pursue stability and don't mind taking risks occasionally.
More people are mediocre and are ultimately led by price. My mood is constantly going up and down, left and right. Hahaha when it rises, Ma sells batch when it falls.

Since everyone has different personalities, you must choose a trading method that suits you. Choose a method that matches your personality.
It is absolutely impossible to say that this method is good today and that style will be good tomorrow. The big cake is good, the second cake is good, the copycat is good, the local dog is good, and I want to play with the airdrop. The left wants it too, the right wants it too. Bulls eat too, and bears eat too. The end result is a confused mind and a haggard heart.

Only do what you can understand, accept your losses, and earn the money you know. Abandoning greed and fear is the enlightenment of this circle!
If you can't earn even small amounts of money stably, then when the opportunity comes, don't think too hard. If you make a lot of money due to luck, you will inevitably lose an even bigger amount of money due to luck.

The big tree in the sky also grows up day by day from the saplings. Masters also come out through hardships and hard work.

Only through self-crossing can we achieve success.

All gentlemen encourage each other.