万里—老陈

Looking back at the mid-year stage of the bull and bear markets in previous years.

The mid-year stage of each year is very painful for secondary investors, even miserable. A large number of speculators will appear in the market at this time, resulting in a local dog craze and a hot trading circle (including the blockchain game craze) in the mid-year stage.

This situation has different meanings for the bull and bear stages. The bear market is naturally a pure harvest, while the bull market can refer to the mid-year stage of 21. I believe that the enthusiasm of the zoo is still vivid in the minds of those who have experienced it.

The bull market stage can better stimulate short-term liquidity and meet the high wealth efficiency conditions of going out of the circle, introducing sufficient blood into the market to lay the foundation for subsequent pull-ups (such as stimulating ETFs).

History will not repeat itself, but it will follow the same rhyme. The zoo is a thing of the past. It is not known whether the next one will be a botanical garden or something else.

The bull market seems short but is actually very long. The behemoth of hundreds of billions has not yet appeared. There are enough opportunities in the future. Only by formulating a long-term holding plan can we see a more distant future.

The big cake fell in the morning and completed the gate. There was a reminder yesterday. Returning to the 6W platform before the data is released is nothing more than a long-short game. The current position is suitable for starting a new round of decline or jumping again.

The release of the small non-agricultural data in the evening will have a certain impact on the market, but the current market will no longer pay for a single data, unless it is extremely good or bad and can change the expectation of interest rate cuts. So far, the cold winter is still there. In this incremental narrative bull, the stock competition caused by the disappearance of incremental growth is extremely cruel. The market size is getting bigger and bigger. Whether the Ethereum ETF can attract effective incremental growth is still doubtful, but it is certain that the two windows will be the two largest water diversion channels in the market after the interest rate cut.

The intraday support of big cake is 59700, and the support of Ethereum is 3305.

Although Bitcoin has a tendency to draw a door, the current downward space is limited. We need to focus on the ADP data tomorrow night and the subsequent non-agricultural data on Friday. The changes in the expectation of interest rate cuts will dominate the recent market. Although it is difficult to usher in interest rate cuts in August and September, it will lay a solid foundation for the main upward wave in November and December.

At present, most cottages have returned to the previous bottom consolidation area. Even if the market is now in a long-short swing stage, the appropriate intervention at this time is very cost-effective, mainly in waves. With the relative silence of the market, speculators will emerge one after another, and then promote a new round of cottage sector rotation. In addition to the individual coins shared yesterday, the previous strong sectors such as AI concept and chain game sectors can also be focused on.

Bitcoin intraday support 61800, Ethereum 3405.

Bitcoin is recovering, and altcoins are taking a breather. Some altcoins are expected to rebound in the short term. Focus on Ethereum and SOL ecosystems, and pay attention to ZK, CKB, SSV, JTO, and BB. Mainly in the band.

Poor in May, desperate in June, and turning over in July correspond to the current market. The market was in a correction stage throughout June, and the copycats experienced a large-scale cleanup. So far, Bitcoin has been consolidating at a high level above 6W for 4 months. There is still a third wave in the general trend. Combined with the macro changes in the second half of the year, the opening of the third wave will eventually see a six-digit Bitcoin.

After breaking 6W, Bitcoin ushered in a round of repair market at the weekend. It is not difficult to see the behavior of rat warehouses from the trend. Although it has rebounded, it is still in a downward trend. It is not advisable to be optimistic before it breaks.

This week's macro changes are large. The new interest rate cut expectations in the second half of the year will start from this Friday, and there is an impact from the Ethereum ETF.

This round of rebound ended very quickly. Bitcoin has just fallen below the 64,000 mark. Compared with Ethereum, Bitcoin is too weak. When the expected good news is approaching, there is a risk-averse sentiment of Bitcoin switching to Ethereum.

The current wide range of fluctuations is very similar to absorbing funds. The retail investors' ability to take over below 65,000 is very weak, but the turnover of 70,000-60,000 has been expanding. Now it is not difficult to see that large institutions are taking over. This bull market with high institutional participation has been breaking the conventional perception of the market.

Although the market is still weak at this stage, the rebound expectations of 68,500 and 3,780 remain unchanged. The market welcomed the approval of Ethereum 19b-4 today last month, and now it is not far from the market's expected approval of S-1.

Wanli short-term copycat sharing: ZK

Although it has a bad reputation, there is no problem with the project, and pulling the market is justice. After going online, the market is obviously protected, and the support below 0.2 is strong. It is expected to usher in a large increase in the rebound stage of the market.

Current position: 0.21

Expected position: 0.23-0.25

At the current position, you can intervene with a light position and cover the position at 0.2.

Stop loss reference: 0.192, 0.185.

The volatility is large when it is just launched, the risk factor is high, and the profit and loss are at your own risk.

Bitcoin rebounded after dropping to 64,600 in the morning, which is exactly the support level given yesterday. In the current rebound stage, you can buy altcoins appropriately, mainly in the short term. The current market reaction is relatively slow, and the rebound of oversold altcoins will be more violent.

Bitcoin 68,500, Ethereum 3,780 rebound expectations remain unchanged, and the intraday support is 65,800, 3,580.

619000 Miles High-quality Copycat Research Report

Target: IMX

Sector: L2

Market consensus: L2 leader

Current market value: 2.2 billion

Current position: 1.59

Expected high point: 8-10

Start-up period: 10-12 months

Reasonable intervention position: 1-1.3

Growth space: 500%-700%

IMX has been online for nearly two years, and the ecology has been tepid, but each round of market has a very high outbreak. Strong endorsement has laid the foundation for consensus. The release in the past two years has been close to full circulation, and the ecological narrative has not yet exploded. In the second half of the bull market environment, it is expected to reach a new high, and the market value will exceed 10 billion.

Intervene at a reasonable position, with a risk factor of 25%.

Bitcoin daily line recovered 65 again, and Ethereum strongly recovered 3500 driven by expected positive news. It has bottomed out again and cannot fall any more. Moreover, Bitcoin did not reach the new high of US stocks this time. After a month, the expected time for the final approval of Ethereum ETF is coming soon. Bulls have a certain chance to counterattack. Now it is recommended to implement a low-long strategy and hold spot and wait and see.

The view of the main downward trend in the middle of the year has not changed. The opening of the main downward wave also requires a certain opportunity. There is no possibility for Bitcoin to reach a new high in the mid-year environment. Just wait for the final positive news of Ethereum to be released. Bitcoin intraday support is 64600. Ethereum 3480. This round of rebound is expected to be 68500 for Bitcoin and 3780 for Ethereum.

61,800 Miles of High-Quality Copycat Research Report

Target: PEPE

Sector: MEME

Market consensus: New MEME leader

Current market value: 4.77 billion

Current position: 0.0000107

Expected high point: 0.00003

Start-up period: September-November

Reasonable intervention position: 0.000007

Growth space: 400%

As long as you think it is still in a bull market, the certainty of choosing MEME or chain game leaders is very high. These two sectors do not need narratives, and there is no narrative brewing. Therefore, the new is more obvious in these two sectors.

Intervene at a reasonable position, with a risk factor of 30%.

Wanli High-quality Copycat Research Report

Target: NOT

Sector: Chain Games

Market consensus: New Chain Games Leader

Current market value: 1.84 billion

Current position: 0.018

Expected high point: 0.08-0.1

Growth space: 600%-1000%

Start-up cycle: 8-10 months

Reasonable intervention position: 0.009-0.011

The market has always adhered to the principle of speculating on new but not old, especially MEME and chain games, two sectors with great wealth effects, which can quickly gather consensus in any environment and accelerate the whole process once it starts.

But it is certain that it is not a reasonable intervention position at present, and there is a large room for callback. The risk factor is 40%.

The mid-year crypto winter has arrived. In addition to the mainstream consensus, the copycat consensus has collapsed under the sharp retracement. The chain, the first level, and the second level have not been spared from the all-round attack. The bull market cleaning has begun. We are likely to encounter another round of deep cleaning before the repair.

The view of the main downward trend of the big cake in the middle of the year remains unchanged. Yesterday, I said that there may be positive news in the market in the near future, but in the current environment, even if the good news is exhausted, the main downward situation of Ethereum cannot be changed. Even long-term high-level consolidation will gradually loosen the chips of the cycle participants, thereby inducing a larger profit-taking understanding. Deep cleaning may also start at this time, such as breaking 65,60.

Unlike the previous bull market, the participation of institutions in this round is too high, and large rises and falls are the norm.

In the case of lack of liquidity over the weekend, Bitcoin is relatively strong compared to Ethereum, mainly due to the expected positive support of ETFs, but the current macro environment still has negatives to digest.

No matter what positives Ethereum has, Bitcoin's dominant position cannot be shaken. Before returning to 685, the short-term view remains unchanged. At this stage, short-term operations can be selected to wait for the end of the 65-67 range game.

ETH is strong again, and the LSD track rebounds. Another signal may appear. The SEC's attitude towards Ethereum pledge has changed, which can directly change the short-term supply and demand relationship. The double benefits of pledge + approval are potential opportunities for a substantial increase. Although it is a matter of sooner or later, it is necessary to consider whether it will happen at this stage.

The approval of Ethereum ETF is expected to be advanced to early July. The continuous net inflow stage of Bitcoin has ended. The game of big funds in the 65-67 range is obvious. The market currently has no positive news stimulus in the short term except for the expected positive support of Ethereum ETF, and the overall trend is downward.

With the approval of Bitcoin ETF, the volume is getting bigger and bigger, and the game of big funds is more obvious, especially the repeated large adjustments of 60,000 to 70,000. Retail investors have completely lost their ability to undertake, and the bargaining power of the market has quietly shifted. I believe that the subsequent market can climb to a higher peak under the promotion of BlackRock. Not referring to the present.

Bitcoin's view remains unchanged. Although 65-67 is the key range for big funds to play games at present, below 685 is the main field for short positions, which is suitable for high-sell or high-sell and low-buy.

ETH's ETF has been expected to pass, and the next step is to wait for approval, which is expected to be before August. After Bitcoin reached the bottom of the range, it ushered in the expected good news. The position of 65-67 is obviously the key position for big funds to play.

The heat of the cottage industry has gradually dissipated, and the emotions brought by the original rotation of MEME and blockchain games have also subsided. At this stage, there is no sustainable hot spot in the market. The cottage industry continues to be in a round-trip state until the next round of MEME and blockchain games.

Although there are expected benefits now, the long-short watershed of 68,500 for Bitcoin has been broken. Before returning to 685, it is still the home of the shorts. The pledge of ETH has not been released. If it fails to meet market expectations, it will lead to a waterfall.

Ethereum ETF S-1 has just given a clear answer that the SEC will approve it in the summer, which means before August.

It feels like news about the Ethereum ETF’s follow-up filing S-1 will be out soon.

Last night, we talked about CPI, the number of interest rate cuts, and Powell's speech. The three signals are good news and bad news. If nothing unexpected happens, the mid-year winter has begun.

The next sudden positive news may still be the Ethereum ETF, but the approval of S-1 before the interest rate cut signal is not believed to bring a large increase. It is likely to replicate the trend after the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, first wash the market and wait for the interest rate cut signal to appear before violently pulling up.

As for the sudden interest rate cut, it is basically impossible before September. Under the influence of macroeconomics, the market will continue to fall in the middle of the year.

Tonight, both CPI and resolutions have signals of interest rate cuts. These two events have a great impact on the mid-year market. Whether the big cake can return to above 7W in the short term also depends on whether there are positive signals tonight.

CPI is lower than expected, interest rates are cut twice or more, and Powell is not rolling meat. These are all positive signals. If two of the above signals appear, it means that the negative impact has been realized, and the correction ends and the bulls rebound. If one or none of them appears, the negative impact will continue to be digested.

This round of correction started after the release of the big non-agricultural data last Friday. The positive of slightly rising unemployment and the negative of a sharp rebound in employment have made the market pessimistic about the interest rate cut. The current correction is only a pricing behavior of the market, so tonight's signal determines whether a new round of rise or fall will begin.