Crypto芒果

SOL fell with the market, the minor support at 168 has been broken, and potential support below to watch is around 148.

It is not advisable to open long positions at the moment; you may wait to try entering when it reaches the support level at 148.

BTC is still in a period of pricing logic oscillation, conservative funds are the first to withdraw from the more volatile ETH and altcoins due to risk aversion demand, which may be the main reason for ETH's decline.

After rising to 106,000 early in the morning, the pancake retraced to 103,000, capturing a space of over 2,000.

In the morning, it rebounded to 107,000, close to the target, and as we approach the panic day of May 19, there may be a sell-off, indicating that the short-term upward trend may be coming to an end.

Strategy:
Medium to long term: Hold short positions at 107,000, targeting a drop to 97,000;

Short term: Short in the range of 106,500-107,000, targeting 103,500-104,000, with Ethereum operating in sync.

Currently USELESS has become the new leader of BONK, various types of 'nihilistic' tokens have emerged:
- Fartcoin (Financial Nihilism)

- Housecoin (Real Estate Nihilism, claiming one coin one house)

- NEET (Employment Nihilism, lying flat theme)

- DRA (Pension Nihilism, decentralized crypto pension)

Useless focuses on the concept of 'everything is worthless', reflecting the spread of market nihilism.

Recently, BNB has shown strong performance, maintaining at 644 USD.

Bulls are holding the key level, although they have not broken through 675 USD, they are poised for action.

The 20-day moving average is trending upwards, and the RSI shows buying pressure is dominant, with a bullish target of 745 USD.

Be wary of falling below the 20-day moving average of 629 USD; if broken, it may retest the support at the 50-day moving average of 604 USD.

According to The Defiant, the Brazilian publicly traded company Méliuz has purchased $28.4 million worth of Bitcoin, becoming the first company in Brazil to implement a Bitcoin financial strategy, which has been approved by a high vote from the company's shareholders.

May 16 Pancake Trend:
Fluctuation range 102500-104000, 4-hour high drop shows selling pressure.

Indicators bearish dominance (1-hour KDJ death cross, MACD not turning bullish, Bollinger Bands close to the lower track).

Breaking 102500 or probing 101000/95000.

Short-term strategy:
- Rebound at 104500+ short, target 102000-101500;

- Pullback at 102500 stabilize light position long, target 104000-105000.

Points to Bet on a Coin:
1. Most people short when afraid of heights

2. Participants at all stages claim to be profitable

3. Profit makers threaten to sell

4. Out-of-circle popularity

5. No clear APR expectations

6. (Appendix) Koreans promote liquidity

No guarantee of victory, but if a few points are met, it can be tried.

Cryptocurrency prices are fluctuating at a high level, with opportunities for both bulls and bears during the day.

Operations revolve around the range: short Bitcoin at 104000-104500, target 103000-102000;

short Ether at 2565-2580, target 2530-2500.

Focus on short positions, flexibly switch between long and short, strictly control position size and set stop-losses.

No participation in any short-term market opportunities from June to September. The big opportunities in copycat markets (continuous trends) only appear during the rise of Bitcoin, and the big market in December 2024 is the target.

Next, continue researching projects and patiently wait!

ETH Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
Current ETH price is running to the $2600 key resistance zone. From a technical perspective, this position may become an important node for the bearish forces to initiate a counterattack.

Combining the liquidity characteristics of the market on Friday evening and short-term trend signals, it is expected that the market will break the recent weak oscillation pattern and start a new round of directional selection.

Trading Suggestions:
Short Position Setup: Aggressive traders may attempt to short near the $2600 area with a light position, while conservative traders should wait for price rebound confirmation of resistance before entering, with a stop-loss reference above $2650.

Target Outlook: Short-term support below to focus on the $2400 level. If bearish forces continue to be released, further testing of the validity of this support position cannot be ruled out.

Risk Warning: Market volatility is influenced by multiple factors. It is recommended to strictly control positions and closely monitor evening capital flows and the interaction effect with Bitcoin, adjusting strategies as needed.

Bitcoin Ecosystem Rebound:

Expected Repair as the Main Focus, Sustainability in Doubt The current Bitcoin ecosystem rebound is more of an emotional repair under low valuations and weak expectations, rather than a trend reversal, facing multiple structural constraints in the medium term;

Development Progress Lagging BRC-20, Runes and other projects are progressing slowly, failing to form a complete system, with a lack of infrastructure leading to insufficient ecological synergy.

Core Projects GitHub Update Frequency Declining, Developer Activity Significantly Lower than Ethereum, Solana and other chains, the cooling of the technical community weakens long-term expectations.

Funds are refocusing on deeply undervalued assets at style switching nodes, releasing phase elasticity, but lacking fundamental support.

Conclusion: The rebound can be driven by emotions, but the continuation of the trend relies on substantial product implementation, user growth data, and community confidence rebuilding.

If there are no solid developments in the future, short-term elasticity is unlikely to convert into a medium to long-term independent market.

Four Key Factors for Ethereum's Target of $3000 Current Market Situation:

ETH increased by 5.63% to above $2500, with the market focusing on whether it can break through the $3000 barrier, mainly influenced by the following factors:
1. Capital Game Pattern Traditional investors selling off led to a net outflow of $10.83 million in spot ETH ETFs, but institutions are increasing their positions against the trend, becoming the main force behind the rise.

Key Variable: If ETF capital flow turns positive (from outflow to inflow), it will inject incremental capital momentum into the upward trend.

2. Supply and Demand Structure Supports The reserve of ETH on exchanges is 19.1 million coins, significantly reducing selling pressure; the expansion of the DeFi and NFT ecosystems is driving demand.

Logical Chain: Supply contraction + demand growth → supply-demand imbalance → price upward support.

3. Key Level Effect After breaking through $2700, market bullish sentiment has intensified, making this level a key point for long-short games: if it holds, it strengthens breakout expectations and attracts chasing funds;

if it fails to hold, it may trigger profit-taking, delaying the upward trend.

4. Technical Upgrade Implementation The Pectra upgrade enhances network scalability and security (such as validator staking limits, Blob data processing optimization).

Conversion Conditions: It relies on the rapid landing of ecological applications (such as dApp growth, user increase) to convert technical advantages into price driving forces.

Conclusion: If institutional capital continues to flow in, and the supply-demand structure is further optimized, combined with key level breakthroughs and ecological landing resonance, ETH is expected to challenge the $3000 level in the short term.

Market Judgment: Short-term trend weakening, but the support below has not been broken, significant decline space is limited.

Key Levels: Short-term resistance at 1040, support level to be observed.

Trading Strategy: Mainly short positions, with some long positions as a supplement.

Afternoon Suggestion: If Bitcoin rebounds above 1035, consider shorting, targeting the resistance around 1040 for breakthrough situation, stop loss set above 1045.

On May 13, SOL strongly broke through the 180 level, and the next day, bears counterattacked, causing the price to quickly drop below 175.

Future trends should focus on two key signals:
Effective support at 160: 160 (20-day moving average) is an important defense line. If SOL stabilizes and rebounds here, it suggests that the bulls still have room to build strength and may aim for the 210 high;

Downward break risk: If it falls below 160, the previous break above 180 may be a "false breakout," and the price could further drop to 155.

Market Analysis: The movement of Bitcoin and Ethereum is strongly correlated, both currently showing weakness, with significant resistance above, and a short-term trend leaning bearish.

Trading Advice: Ethereum (ETH): Short near 2650, with the first target at 2500;

If it breaks down, look further down to 2370, with a stop-loss above 2700.

Key Altcoin Spot Sell Suggestions (Target Price):

SUI: 4.85-5.00 DOGE: 0.3685 (Weekly MACD is about to golden cross, can pay attention to trend continuation)

FET: 1.35 ADA: 1.085 XRP: 2.95-3.00

The above are suggested selling prices, long-term holders can adjust strategies based on personal judgment.

Analysis of the Whole Process of the Dealer's Control

1. In-depth Analysis: Researching market data, policy trends, and investor sentiment to identify target assets, planning the control cycle and strategy.

2. Discreet Position Building: Using dispersed accounts and multiple small transactions to quietly accumulate shares during market downturns, avoiding significant price fluctuations that reveal intentions.

3. Testing the Market: Conducting small buy and sell transactions to test market support and trend-following behavior, assessing the difficulty of subsequent operations.

4. Sideways Consolidation: Controlling prices through wash trading and order cancellations to wear down retail investors' patience and force out floating shares.

5. Initial Price Increase: Slightly raising prices to attract technical traders and trend followers while continuing to accumulate shares.

6. Aggressive Washing: Creating panic-induced declines or severe fluctuations to force retail investors to relinquish their shares, clearing unstable positions.

7. Violent Price Surge: Rapidly and significantly increasing prices to attract a large influx of chasing funds, creating an illusion of a bull market.

8. High-Price Distribution: Gradually distributing shares to chasing retail investors during market euphoria to realize profits.

9. Brief Rebound: Slightly raising prices after selling shares to entice bottom-fishing funds, laying the groundwork for a second round of selling or crashing.

10. Frantic Dumping: Selling remaining shares at any cost, triggering panic-induced market declines to re-establish positions at low prices, starting the next cycle.

Early morning verification of the short-long strategy was successful, Bitcoin gained over 800 points, and Ethereum gained over 60 points; recent long and short layout yields are considerable.

Current coin price is on the verge of breaking through, maintaining a large-scale oscillation in the technical aspect.

In the morning, bulls are weak, high-level consolidation may continue, and pullbacks are part of the bullish correction.

Today, the short-term outlook looks for oscillation recovery, suggestions:
Buy Bitcoin at 102500-103000, target 105000.

Buy Ethereum at 2550-2570, target 2650-2700, adjust take profit flexibly based on the pattern.

After the AI hype subsides, the NFT and gaming sectors may rise in succession.

RARE, as a strong coin in the NFT sector, has recently broken new highs on the daily chart due to its clean holding structure and the accumulation of main forces, and is currently in a good opportunity for positioning.

From a long-term perspective, its target price is expected to reach 0.5-0.8, which is worth paying attention to.