Rui

The long road to Xiongguan is really like iron, but now we are crossing it from the beginning (April 24)
The market sentiment is declining, short-term hot spots are not sustainable except for PEPE, and the market makers of ARB and ID have completed a market-making cycle. As for the broader market, it is in a macro-backed interest rate hike conversion cycle. Historically, it generally rises first and then falls. The currency circle will theoretically amplify this fluctuation.
In terms of short-term hot spots, ARB should have completed the first wave of market trends. Currently, it only has the opportunity to follow the market. ID market makers have completed the delivery of the first wave of goods. In theory, there should be opportunities for the second wave. With the help of exchanges, Meme has shown a trend of scattered flowers, but most of them are thunderous but not rainy. The market logic may be shifting to OG, a more sustainable capital market.

The random flowers are becoming more and more charming, and only in Asakusa can there be no horseshoes (April 17)
The market has entered a white-hot stage. ARB and ID are the earliest indicators. ARB's chips are relatively scattered. It is more like project parties and market makers forcing a wave to seize the market position (the logic of this part was mentioned before). By the third After a target, you should wash the market and look at the overall situation. ID is more interesting. It means that IEO must pull the market, and the volatility will be higher.
Generally speaking, after the first wave of leading gains ends, it will start to rise disorderly, and then start to fluctuate and pull back, so we have seen the strength of CTSI and Celr. But most of these are just independent quotes, and the corresponding volumes are not high. Also in terms of rates, some cottages are overheated.
Looking at the market's sideways correction, there are independent hot spots for copycats.

"Pedestrians on the road want to die" April 3
The liquidity of the market has reached its lowest level. From Sunday morning to Monday morning, the Binance BTC exchange only had less than 1 billion US dollars left, and only a handful of them can exceed 100 million. MASK, CFX and other strong market makers are washing the volume. They all stopped firing, which shows the low trading desire.
Due to insufficient trading volume, the price of BTC fluctuates in a narrow range (27-28.5K). The next stage of the market may be driven by US stocks. This week’s non-agricultural sector and April’s earnings season may be the driving force for the market.
As the Nasdaq returned above 12K, ETH and altcoins failed to keep up due to liquidity and deposits and withdrawals, and BTC, which has the strongest chips, was the strongest. In the short term, the size transformation still depends on liquidity.
In addition, when the small cycle is weak-strong, it is still a good trading idea to follow the strong Alts of the previous period on the right side.

There is no way out yet (March 27)
The liquidity of the market continues to deplete. From yesterday morning to this morning, btc was 1.6B and ETH was 600M. The only Alts above 100M were Mask and XRP. That means altcoin trading sentiment has reached its lowest point. All altcoins are paper tigers with this level of liquidity.
Arb completely misjudged. No one except professional studios was happy in this TGE incident. So far, only 30% of ARB has not been traded. The market has taken over 800M. This part of the money needs to be spit out before it can flow back to Alts on. But it is more likely that Arb and Alts fell together due to extremely low liquidity.
We are still not optimistic about the short term, and strong events are needed to stimulate the market, otherwise all the gains will be just chestnuts from the fire.

First of all, there was a misjudgment here a few days ago. The market liquidity did not have a profit-making effect due to the ARB airdrop, but instead caused the market to lose blood (shrinking liquidity). It is similar to the situation at the end of February and early March. At that time, ETH was trading around 1550 for a long time, and then plummeted to around 1250 due to the crisis as the banking crisis recovered. Will it be the same script this time?
If not, what event will stimulate the money back?

1. For ARB, if the bleeding market continues, when Vol drops to 200Mln or even less than 100Mln, it may be a good opportunity.
2. The money on the sidelines in the market has increased, but the wild dealers have not taken any action. For other non-ARB copycats, an opportunity is needed, either another round of sharp declines or an event to stimulate the market.

Finally, let’s talk about Arb. The short-term over-the-counter price is expected to be around 1.3, which corresponds to FDV13B. MC is calculated as 7.15B (ranked 12th) based on 55% circulation. The actual circulation is 1.3B (airdrop selling), which means that only about 400M is needed. The price can be stabilized if the funds recognize the price of 1.3 after going online. 400M is an achievable level in the current market, so this price estimate is relatively reasonable in the short term.
From a larger perspective, if the market continues to rise, when the first wave of washout ends, there is a probability of impact to Layer 2 (top ten MC), and maintaining the first position of Layer 2 MC is a strategic success. .
From the perspective of a market maker, such a large project is more about maintaining liquidity, but does not require excessive guidance on prices.

What happened last night (continued):
The currency went up first and then fell. It pulled very hard before the decision was announced, but started to rise and fall after it was announced, indicating that there was a lot of short-term speculation, and then the market passively completed a reshuffle (following the decline in US stocks). ) fell to Coinbase, and the negative news came out. There was still no extra chips to smash the market, but it was a short-term pullback. This purely emotion-driven posture shows that the main chips in the market throughout the night did not have much willingness to trade, which means that events caused by the Federal Reserve are unlikely to be a catalyst for the market in the short term. Then if Bitcoin fluctuates around 27-28K, there should be altcoins. Otherwise, when the market fluctuates at high levels and lows and liquidity continues to deplete, downside risks will have to be considered.

What happened last night:
The Fed finally chose to raise interest rates by 25BP, and said in a subsequent press conference that it would not cut interest rates during the year, which actually means that it has begun to relax. The market will start to speculate on interest rate cuts in the third quarter at the latest. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index has returned to 100, indicating that the market is not optimistic about expectations for continued interest rate increases. Yellen, on the other hand, was more amusing and told a ghost story about not considering full deposit insurance, which caused the second round of slump in small bank stocks. The fundamental problem caused by high interest rates was not solved, but it only added fuel to the fire.
Brother Sun and Coinbase in the currency circle were investigated, and WSJ hacked Tether again. It is a boring thing. It doesn’t matter whether Brother Sun has something to do. Brother Sun will solve it. There is a high probability that CB will have to fight with the SEC at the court level. (80% win, 20% lose, but the period will be long).

The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve to give an answer, and does not believe that the Federal Reserve will exceed expectations. The probability of maintaining 25% will continue to depend on economic data feedback.
If it is 0, everyone will worry that there is a big thunder in the banking industry that has not yet exploded. The result is that the CPI will continue to rise, and risk and risk aversion may rise together. This is also the most ferocious situation of the game. (Of course, this is expected to be a strong positive for Crypto, especially Alts).
If it is 50, the Fed will trigger a short-term panic, but if that happens, the market will fall sharply first and then wait for Powell to speak.
I don’t think there will be a big market tonight, but there may be Alts fluctuations after the high-volatility market. It can happen either up or down. Pay attention to the ones that started to move last night.

The apes on both sides of the Taiwan Strait can't stop crying, and the boat has passed the Ten Thousand Mountains (March 20)

1. The macro link is about 60%, which will stimulate market sentiment but will not affect the market direction. This wave of capital growth is very healthy (depending on funding rates and liquidity). Sentiment and capital are in place here. It doesn’t matter whether the Fed’s 3000E is QE or not. We’ll wait until the boots fall.

2. BTCD accounts for 46%, sucking blood. In the short term, retail investors rush to copycats too quickly, and bankers cannot keep up with the rhythm. Instead, they are waiting for a correction to wash the market.

In the short term, pay attention to the concept of hot money speculation after the correction, GDC/BTC DEFI/LSD, etc.

The focus of the ARB narrative is that short-term off-market expectations are extremely high, airdrops are very scattered, and in the short term, we will see whether altcoins will be attracted. 55% circulation (actual 20%) at the mid-term opening means the ambition to be in the top ten (2-3U).