RainingFire火雨

There is no problem with rebound in the short term, and 59000-61000 is the expected target range.
But this wave of deep decline trend line break is really ugly. I tend to think that the bull market is still there, but it is difficult to have a definite signal in the short term, unless it rises back above 64500, a gain of nearly 10000u, and the oscillating rise is much healthier than the violent pull.
Avoid contracts in the near future. There is still a possibility of falling below 50000 for a second test in the short term.

I think the voices that BTC will fall to around 50,000 are too consistent. Although the market is indeed very weak, I can't help but complain in my heart, will this point that is about to become a consensus really provide everyone with an opportunity to get on the golden pit as expected...
(A sudden fragment of thinking while playing with cats🤔)

BTC's recent trend is not very good, with large volume falling and small volume rebounding, and repeated shocks are annoying.
But there is no obvious negative news in the macro sense. US stocks are rising, the US dollar is falling, and ETFs have ended the long-lasting net outflow and started to turn inflows. The only explanation is that large funds are moving for unknown reasons.
So it is actually difficult to bet on a clear long-short direction here, because there are too few deterministic factors, and the naked K strategy should have been tortured and lost patience in the past few days.
I still tend to be bullish. The chips near 5.6w are well held. It is relatively healthy to hold 30% to half of the spot. The current position is not worth all-in.

Regarding the market trend, I think BTC6w is bound to break in the long term. As for where it will break effectively, I can’t see it so far at present. I can only say that this is the beginning of a weekly level retracement. But in the short term, I think it will rebound recently. There are 3 reasons:
1. Long leverage was cleared for two consecutive days over the weekend, and the funding rate turned from red to green.
2. The war did not expand and escalate as expected.
3. KOL teachers who saw BTC at 8w a week ago have collectively started to see 5w or even 4w.
So I bought a little spot from the weekend to today. Ideally, I will wait for a rebound of more than 10% here. If it does not reach the point, I will break directly and then continue to take it depending on the situation. I think the current market environment is extremely unfriendly to contracts, and there is no need to gamble on contracts.

A brief analysis of Launchpool's new project Omni in plain language:
This project is an Ethereum cross-chain operation protocol that provides an infrastructure layer for many Layer2 Rollups on Ethereum, and then aggregates them into a common platform to enable developers to carry out unified cross-chain development of the application layer.
There are many interoperability protocols like Omni at present, but one of the highlights of Omni is that it is the first to implement interoperability customization standards in the Ethereum ecosystem, which also helps to solve the liquidity problem of Layer2 and is an industry-based underlying technology optimization solution.
Looking forward, there are also many application scenarios that can be used, such as cross-rollup related financial products, mining and coin minting, etc.
Back to this Launchpool event, because this project belongs to the underlying technology protocol, not an application layer product, the price of Omni that everyone is concerned about is closely related to the usage rate of Omni Network. The Omni coin itself can be distributed to the relayers of Rollup transactions as a payment mechanism, and it is also the network gas on EVM. In layman's terms, the more people use it, the more valuable it is, and vice versa, the coin price will be sluggish. According to the white paper, tokens will be released in stages, but the market will soon face the BTC halving and there will be unpredictable fluctuations. Therefore, you can use the coins obtained from mining to observe the market trends before deciding whether to mine, withdraw and sell or take a long-term approach.

The OTC price of u has soared, breaking 7.5+ in the early morning, and the demand has soared.
Whether it is the demand for margin replenishment or the motivation of the bottom-fishing army, the current market sentiment is not pessimistic. Although some people have liquidated their positions/large floating losses, the activity is still there. I checked Twitter this morning, and the screen was full of jokes and KOLs calling for bottom-fishing everywhere.
I am not saying that it will continue to fall further, and I also feel that the voices that BTC will fall by 52,000-54,000 are a bit too consistent from my personal sense, and it may not really fall to this extent. But at present, I think the market sentiment is really good. The cottage seems to have fallen badly, but once it enters the repair, the rebound will also be very fierce. This is the motivation for many people to rush to replenish their positions.
What is really grinding is that it has been slowly falling here for two months, wearing out the patience of those who are anxious to get their money back.
Wealth does not come in a hurry, and I encourage you.

A comment not related to technical analysis: BTC started from 26,000 last year and has been pulled all the way to a new high. There has been almost no weekly level correction in the middle. The market has been pulled back countless times based on pure indicators and even shocks. It is still in the top shock range. The altcoins fell sharply, but they also rose more fiercely before. $OP , which has been criticized for being weak for a long time, rose from 0.9 to 4.8, and $ARB , which has been abandoned by many people, also rose from 0.7 to 2.4, not to mention the top memes like $PEPE , which was washed out by such a deep drop yesterday, and the profit from the starting point is still 5 times. What does this mean? Looking at the weekly chart, it is not a big drop at all, but people are crying and shouting everywhere, and nearly 1 billion US dollars have been liquidated. Many kols encouraged their friends in the group with tears in their eyes, saying that this is the "last drop". Now the market's standard for the last drop is so low. Suppose there really is a market situation similar to 312 and 519, how many people will still be alive in this market?

BTC has completed the second round of inducement and started to fall, but in fact, it is still fluctuating at a high level in the 4H, and there is no trend of deep correction for the time being. The short-term limit support is around 61,000. I personally think that the probability of a big rebound is not high at present, because the previous waves of fluctuations repeatedly rushed to 70,000, cultivating the inertia of long-term profit when the market falls, so I think it will continue to fall here. Of course, BTC is the mildest, and the cottage is terrible. Many cottages are even close to the position when BTC was launched in October last year.

After researching the new launchpool project etena, I found that the timing of this project's launch is very clever.
As we all know, since February and March this year, the extreme tilt of bullish sentiment has led to a surge in long-selling rates, which has increased the yields of many quantitative teams, spot and current rate arbitrage, and the familiar USDT high-value financial management on exchanges. Its underlying assets are also a structure that aggregates multiple arbitrage products.
The Ethena project, on the surface, is an Ethereum stablecoin. The actual core is an arbitrage product, that is, a spot hedging contract with short orders. The profit and loss is balanced through an algorithm. The income comes from the long-term fee rate. This is a balance in the current bull market atmosphere. The dual advantages of high returns + financial security.
So I think this project has stepped into a good time point, because arbitrage income is inherently unstable. Some time ago, BTC fell from 7.3 to 6.1, and the rate visible to the naked eye quickly balanced, and then returned to the level as it rose. to a high position. The sUSDe Apy announced by the project team in the picture is 35.4%, but the annualized arbitrage rate was only 15% last year, but it can reach more than 100% from February to March.
As for the currency price expectations, if the market rises in the future, then ENA still has potential. Aevo quotes 1u, and the initial liquidity is 9.5%. I think 0.2-1 is a reasonable price, but if it falls below 0.2, you must be careful, because According to project financing valuation, 0.2 is a relatively conservative bottom price.

Some thoughts on the future environment:
The arrival of this bull market is far faster than imagined. In 2022, the main theme was still that the bear would grow throughout 23. Who knew that the bear would only stay for a short time, especially the bear market of eth. Looking at the review, it only arrived in December 21. The first half of June 2022 was a bearish one.
The suspension of interest rate hikes is the background, and the benefits of ETFs are the switch. After the funds flow in, the recovery of the entire market will be driven by the pull of Bitcoin. Of course, the selectivity of funds can still be seen in this process. Many coins have not actually increased much this year. , not as good as the level of the 21-year bull top. Due to the rise of sol this round, many old coins may never turn around again.
In the future, I think the BNB ecology and the SOL ecology need to be paid close attention to. In addition to the higher long-term value of the platform currency, the rise of the ecological currency is often a compound result, that is, SOL’s meme lineup and BNB’s golden shovel method. These two sectors It is worth making some arrangements on the position, namely SOL’s new meme + BNB’s lunchpad.

Although ETH's short-term fluctuations are different from BTC's, there are still some similarities between the 3-day line on the daily chart and the 8-hour structure of BTC. That is, there is a deep retracement and then a top pressure to form a top three, so there is such a trend of thinking. That is, short-term pull-up, but back below the blue zone, it can be judged that it is a false breakout and the downtrend will continue.
Note that this judgment needs to be established in the structure of "up and then down" to be valid. It is just a potential possibility. Recently, the bulls and bears are very different, so be cautious when placing orders.

BTC performed poorly after the adoption of etf. Coupled with the accelerated rise of eth, the exchange rate rebounded sharply. BTC fell back to 42,000 after hitting 49,000, which is also a reasonable range. There was a second analysis when it fell to 40,000, and it is still This possibility cannot be ruled out. If BTC's weekly chart closes negative and has a long upper shadow tomorrow, then next week will be a good opportunity to add to the spot position. On the other hand, if it stands firm at 42,000, it will rise again.
ETH is currently on a correction, with short-term support at 2480. At present, 2720 is still not the top, and the pressure level is about 2850. When it is in place, we will see the opportunity for a sharp correction, which will coincide with a wave of market washout before the Cancun upgrade.

Everyone’s attention is focused on BTC. At this time, you can pay attention to a very interesting coin: XEC.
As a fork and split coin of BCH, it has been trading sideways for a year and a half at the bottom, and has basically become a forgotten asset. It has started to increase significantly in the second half of 2023. It is most likely to attract funds, and it is expected to be inscribed in the future. Direction and smart contract narratives are the topic of hype.
From a technical point of view, the weekly trend reversed, but tonight the gains were recovered as the market fell. It has reached a suitable position for stocking up. However, it should be noted that XEC’s market value is still very small, with a market value of only US$700 million. The banker's control of the market will be very awkward. It used to be able to trade sideways for a year and a half. Now even if it starts, it may not directly pull the market. The time cost must be considered. As a lottery currency, XEC is much more reliable than the local dog.

Tonight's plunge is not exaggerated in terms of magnitude. Bitcoin has only recovered the gains of the previous few days. It once again held the position of 40,000 and rebounded strongly. From the perspective of the daily line, it is still a normal shock.
The price of Shanzhai has been relatively large, but before that, Shanzhai has already experienced an exaggerated surge. If it were not for chasing bulls at a high level, even the price of Shanzhai is not very low at present, and it is not at a suitable position for a heavy position.
The liquidation volume is not small, and the overall situation is still based on the current atmosphere of long-term bullishness. There is one data that needs to be paid attention to here. The stop loss level of a large number of low-multiple orders is 39,000-40,000. These are large positions and low-multiple bets. If it breaks through 48,000, the position for building a position is also relatively good. The current retracement fluctuations cannot be eliminated. Once it continues to explore new lows, this part of the order will be damaged, and then it will be a good opportunity to start placing spot positions.
It’s worth buying if the contract dies and the spot price crashes.

At the daily closing of BTC, the rebound is still relatively weak, temporarily supporting the 0.618 line, but there is no strong demand, so the volume and price have not kept up. Currently, it is still seen as a box shock between 25-28. If the 0.618 line falls below, then we should focus on the response of around 25.3, which is probably in the 4-hour demand zone.

The current market is affected by the news and will continue to fluctuate at least this week. Usually this kind of volatile market will last longer than expected and will not choose a direction quickly. There are basically only short-term opportunities in the near future, and trend orders are based on the current position. It's not cost-effective.

BTC has currently fallen below the triangle convergence structure, and has not stopped its decline quickly since Monday. If the daily neckline continues to fall below, 25,000 will be more dangerous, and has already touched the lower boundary of the channel of this upward trend.

At present, there is a narrowing at the previous low, but there is no strong demand, and there is still a possibility of a rebound. However, the power of the bulls has been exhausted in the difference of 30,000. It is impossible to achieve the previous large V. At least it needs to stabilize sideways and then shrink before it is possible to discuss whether there is an opportunity to rise again. But whether it is BTC or ETH, the daily double top has appeared, and a large-scale short trend is basically inevitable.

Both Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI will have large fluctuations in the market. Combined with the rise in U.S. bond yields and the rebound in dxy, there is a high probability that monetary policy will continue in the previous direction.

I have been bearish until today, the market has gone down, and I don’t have any special feelings in my heart. First of all, I still don’t think this is the end point of long and short positions, and it is definitely not recommended to chase short positions. There is no problem in starting to place spot positions in batches here, but be careful with contracts.

Currently, BTC has directly penetrated the important support range of 20370-21500, and the long structure has been destroyed. After entering the 19200-21500 box, if the non-agricultural data is not good or other negative events occur and continue to push the market downward, a right shoulder pattern may appear, probably at the 18500 position. Before that, 19200 still had some support.

It is still my previous point of view. If non-agricultural stocks give a chance to rebound and repair, it will save the lives of many troops and leave the market in time to ensure safety.

Currently, there is an inversion between short-term and long-term income in the U.S. Treasury yields, and the magnitude is quite serious. It has not happened many times in history, and it has already shown the early signs of economic recession.

The probability of raising interest rates to 50 basis points in March has increased to 77%, so the terminal interest rate will rise to 5.25%. If the interest rate is increased by 25 basis points in each of the next two months, it will reach 5.75%, so the US dollar still has a greater There is a huge positive space, and it can be foreseen that DXY will still rise in the future, which is very detrimental to the stock market and the currency circle.

Therefore, based on the premise of "pursuing vague correctness", a relatively good layout cycle may appear in July. Before this, all rebounds are hunting grounds for short-term trading.

As the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March increases, many people's fantasies have been shattered by the Federal Reserve, and the market has reacted accordingly. BTC and ETH are currently under pressure, rising horizontally, and altcoins are under pressure. Fall deeper. My view has been long-term bearish since January, so it is not easy to persist all the way. However, at this time, I still do not think this is the time when shorts will decisively control the market, and the possibility of rebound still exists. But what is different from the last time BTC fell to 21,500 is that the cost-effectiveness of going long on callbacks has become increasingly lower. If a rebound occurs here, it may actually be the last resort for those who have developed a long thinking since January. opportunity for escape.

In addition, altcoins are bound to be more volatile during rebound cycles and are not worth betting on.

The volatile market in February is still continuing in early March, and currently BTC and ETH are still above the trend line support. Due to the unexpected impact of the previous PCE data, everyone is no longer optimistic about the next CPI data. Inflation has slowed down and may even rebound. Expectations for a 50 basis point interest rate hike in March have increased significantly. Therefore, the market is in a pessimistic mood. It also directly led to the decline of US stocks. BTC has downside risks.

The current market is extremely unfriendly to contracts. Although the short-term bull trend has not changed for the time being, this one-step, three-turn-back approach will wear down the funds of short-term traders. At this stage, it is better to wait and see with a short position. Even for spot prices, it is recommended to use the signal on the right side as the entry indicator. The probability of being trapped on the left side is relatively high.