JZL Capital

1. Summary of industry trends

The crypto market has maintained a narrow range this week, and the trend continues to decouple from the Nasdaq. As of writing on May 28, the price of BTC was around 27130, with a rebound of about 1.47% during the week, with an amplitude of only 6%; the price of Ethereum was near 1840, with an increase of about 2% during the week, with an amplitude of only 6.1%. In the past two weeks, the market has been extremely sluggish, with both amplitude and trading volume falling. Taking Binance as an example, the BTC/USDT spot trading volume shrank to only US$6 billion. Even when the BTC price was only around 17,000 during the deep bear stage in January this year, the single-week trading volume of this variety was as high as US$18.7 billion. From this point of view, the crypto market makers that have withdrawn due to US regulations since May have had a huge impact on market activity.

1. Summary of industry trends



The crypto market showed a clear upward trend last week. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum broke through the shock range of the previous two weeks and reached highs in the past 11 months. The overall trend is outperforming the US stock market. Among them, Ethereum has successfully passed the Shanghai upgrade. In this upgrade, 18.1496 million ETH will be unlocked, with a total value of about 35 billion US dollars. Different from what we understand as unlocking and withdrawing coins, unlocking the ETH pledged in the beacon chain and withdrawing it is actually a process in which a node unstakes and exits the node. Therefore, it involves the consensus of node exit and queuing. Therefore, according to actual calculation, every day At most, nearly $200 million of ETH will enter liquidity, so the selling pressure on the market will be limited. The current average deposit price of all pledged ETH is US$2,136, which corresponds to the current price being in a loss state. It is foreseeable that there will be strong pressure on ETH above and below the loss line.

1. Summary of industry trends



The crypto market fluctuated little last week, continuing its previous shrinking and shock trend. The overall trend is similar to that of U.S. stocks. As of writing on April 9, Bitcoin was trading at 27878, down 1.04% during the week; Ethereum was trading at 1836, up 2.42% during the week. While BTC was trading sideways, Ethereum made up some gains, but other Altcoins performed generally. BTC’s market share fell by 0.64%, the ETH/BTC exchange rate pair rose by 3.48%, and the total crypto market value fell by 0.31%. It is still in the Bitcoin Season.



In terms of U.S. stocks, the U.S. stock market was closed on Good Friday last Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.63%, the S&P rose by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell by 1.1%. The overall fluctuations were not significant. However, the S&P 500 Index has already faced important early resistance. Whether a successful breakthrough is still unknown.

1. Summary of industry trends

The crypto market fluctuated little last week, continuing its previous shrinking and oscillating trend. The overall trend was similar to that of U.S. stocks, but the trend during the week underperformed U.S. stocks. As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 28373, up 1.45% during the week; Ethereum closed at 1817, up 2.51% during the week. What is slightly different from last week's market is that this week's total crypto market value increased by 1.23% during the week, Ethereum exceeded BTC by about 1.05% during the week, and small currencies also slightly made up for the gains while BTC was trading sideways.

Market trading volume continued to be sluggish, with the entire market trading volume declining. Taking Binance as an example, the trading volume of BTCUSDT spot trading pairs during the week was only 13.2 billion, which was a sharp drop from 95.3 billion and 40.1 billion in the previous two weeks. In addition to the impact of Binance's cancellation of BTCUSDT spot trading on the fee-free policy, the withdrawal of market makers is also a major reason. Mainly due to previous bank bankruptcies, market makers are subject to restrictions on U.S. dollar exchange channels.

1. Summary of industry trends

Last week, the crypto market began to recover after experiencing a wave of historical gains. The trading volume dropped by nearly 50% within a week, and the market trading volume was mainly concentrated in the Bitcoin market. There was little market movement in small currencies. The overall trend was similar to that of the U.S. stock market. The trend underperformed U.S. stocks during the week. As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 27803.3, up 0.92% during the week, with an amplitude of 1.87%; Ethereum closed at 1762.85, down 1.71% during the week, with an amplitude of 1.63%. The market seems to be booming in recent weeks, but due to limited funds in the market as a whole and continuous net outflows, funds can only rotate to one or a few sectors. Although Bitcoin rose nearly 1% last week, the overall crypto market value is only 0.3%. The increase indicates that other currencies are relatively weak. Another index that reflects the market share of altcoin is the Alcoin Index. This is also an indicator that reflects market sentiment. The lower the index, the more serious Bitcoin is. The current monthly index is close to 2020 November’s value was the lowest in more than two years.

1. Summary of industry trends

The crypto market performed extremely well this week. Bitcoin was once again labeled as digital gold after a storm in many traditional financial markets. The trading volume of centralized exchanges soared to the highest this year, 46 billion USD. Bitcoin during the week The increase is also one of the best weeks in the history of Bitcoin (Beijing time statistics). As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 28021.92, successfully reaching the target position of 28000, rising 35.34% during the week, with an amplitude of 36.49%; Ethereum closed at At 1818.63, it rose 23.16% during the week, with an amplitude of 26.17%. The sharp rise in Bitcoin last week also caused the BTC Dominance index to soar, from 43% to more than 47%. Usually this represents two signals, either a healthy market is in an upward channel, because it indicates that the market The bubble in is relatively low; or it means that the market is at extreme risk and the copycats are sold sharply. This kind of phenomenon has happened in the past crypto market. At present, the market is more inclined to the former. If the Federal Reserve gives dovish remarks this week , the market will continue to grow.

1. Summary of industry trends

The overall trend of the crypto market last week was similar to that of the U.S. stock market. It fluctuated and fell in the middle of the week due to the expected impact of non-agricultural data. On Friday, it fell sharply with the U.S. stock market due to factors such as Silicon Valley Bank and the unexpected non-agricultural data. However, the trading volume was still relatively active. The market was in a few days. There was a strong bargaining sentiment in every integer position. Even after the USDC de-anchoring crisis occurred at the weekend, the market did not show panic. Except for USDC de-anchoring, the mainstream currencies did not fall significantly. On the contrary, Bitcoin The position of 20000 has been supported. As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 20308.21, down 9.28% during the week, with an amplitude of 13.67%; Ethereum continued to perform due to Bitcoin, closing at 1463.46, down 7.21% during the week, with an amplitude of 13.78%. The main negative effects last week still came from the traditional market. Whether it was non-farm data, bank bankruptcy, or Biden’s announcement of a 25% minimum tax on the rich in the United States, they all had negative effects to varying degrees, but what followed should be the Fed’s 3 The interest rate hike in March will be determined at 25 basis points, otherwise the multiple blows to the market will easily have an unpredictable impact. Then there is the impact of the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank on USDC and Circle. As the second consecutive savings bank to fail, we have to question Circle’s caution in selecting reserves. In addition, due to the influence of USDC, the price of USDT against USD has soared. Currently, USDT in the OTC market is about 7.1 yuan, while USD is only 6.91. More information about stablecoins will be introduced below.

1. Summary of industry trends

The crypto market went out of its own way last week, outperforming U.S. stocks in the first half of the week. The crypto market showed signs of stabilizing despite the continued decline in U.S. stocks. However, when U.S. stocks rose sharply on Thursday and Friday, the crypto market instead fell sharply on Friday. There was a sharp decline, with Bitcoin's single-day decline reaching about 4.5%, and it continued to languish and fluctuate over the weekend. As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 22444.39, down 3.48% during the week, with an amplitude of 9.08%; Ethereum's performance was still due to Bitcoin, closing at 1570.92, down 2.23% during the week, with an amplitude of 9.83%. At the same time, the trading volume of centralized exchanges has experienced a significant decline this week, falling by 30% to 20+ Billion USD. The main black swan moment in the crypto market this week came from the sudden collapse of crypto-friendly bank Silvergate. This black swan began with a news from Bloomberg that Silvergate had postponed its financial report disclosure date, making the outside world doubt its possible losses in the crypto market. It exceeded the previously announced US$1 billion and doubted its ability to continue operating, which caused its stock price to fall off a cliff that day, with a closing drop of an astonishing 58%. The impact on the currency circle is that Silvergate has cooperated with several heavyweight institutions in the crypto market, including Circle, the USDC issuer. Silvergate is USDC’s USD collateral collection channel, which means that part of USDC’s reserves exist. Silvergate was invested in Silvergate, but the specific proportion is unknown; another point is that part of the USDC reserve fund is invested by the treasury fund and managed by BlackRock. BlackRock also invested in Silvergate in January, which directly fell by 65%, which also made people worry about its reserves. Fortunately, USDC has relevant cooperation with 8 Canadian banks, so Silvergate is unlikely to account for an excessively high proportion. Currently, USDC has deleted Silvergate from the cooperation list and is looking for a new partner. At present, it seems that this incident has a limited impact on the crypto market. The decline may also be an opportunity for airdrops to hit the market, and it has not had a substantial impact on USDC at the center of the vortex. Will continue to follow up.

Inspired by Aristotle's thoughts, JZL Garden created 2,000 Avatars with different attributes. We will start from his youth and continue to launch other series of NFTs to show his life.

The second issue of JZL Garden’s “Dandelion” series of NFT: calls for the spirit of egalitarianism and advocates a beautiful vision of diversity and inclusion.



Narrative:

Breaking Social Barriers: Tolerance and Diversity

In the 1960s, Martin Luther King's nonviolent protests and the passage of the Civil Rights Act marked the beginning of people's attention and thinking about past discrimination against racial, gender, religious and other groups in order to achieve a more just and equal society. . Over time, this awareness began to spread around the world and became a general consensus in society. People are beginning to explore how to better support diversity and inclusion and better understand and respect the values ​​and perspectives of different people. This transformation is not just a legal change, but also a social and cultural change, laying the foundation for a better, equal and inclusive future.

1. Overview of DeFi options library

DeFi Option Vaults (DOV), also known as Theta Vaults, refers to users depositing funds into corresponding Vaults. The protocol automatically sells fixed-term European options in the market based on a pre-set strategy and transfers the accumulated option fees. Revenues are distributed to users.

This model is similar to a DeFi income aggregator, eliminating the need for users to research and combine relatively complex option strategies on their own, expanding the user base of options and structured products, and lowering barriers (such as qualified investor qualifications).

Through Vaults aggregation, users can also save gas fees for on-chain activities.

1. Structured Product Overview

Structured products generally refer to financial instruments whose performance is linked to underlying assets, products or indexes. They are usually combined with underlying financial instruments and financial derivatives to meet asset allocation needs. The objects linked to structured products are generally risky assets and need to bear market risks. Return risks arising from volatility.

Generally speaking, the terms of structured products are relatively flexible, and different linked targets, terms, risk returns can be designed according to the individual needs of investors. In addition, for investors, it may be relatively flexible in terms of compliance and accounting treatment.

1. Summary of industry trends

Last week, the market followed the correction of U.S. stocks, and the trend was weaker than that of U.S. stocks. Bitcoin began to fall continuously on Tuesday after touching the 25,000 resistance level many times at the beginning of the week. The trading volume of centralized exchanges also slightly pulled back, but The Block’s statistical caliber It is a 7-day moving average, so the current trading volume correction reflects more of the decline in Bitcoin trading volume during the period of 24,000-25,000 for several days last week. As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 23254.69, down 4.24% during the week, with an amplitude of 10.48%; Ethereum closed at 1606.8, down 4.35% during the week, with an amplitude of 9.68%. Last week, Coinbase emphasized in its official tweet that the 23rd is an important day, but the actual news is that they launched their own layer 2 network-Base. Base is a layer-2 network protocol based on Optimism, aiming to develop a secure, low-cost, crypto-economic ecosystem with 1 billion users. Base is currently able to connect to Goerli for protocol interaction through the Ethereum test, and can conduct mint commemorating NFT on its main network. Although Base has claimed that it has no plans to issue tokens, the interaction with Base is still ongoing on the test chain. In full swing.

1. Summary of industry trends

The crypto market showed great resilience and elasticity last week. From Monday to Wednesday, Bitcoin rose by 12% during the rise in US stocks. On Friday, it began to follow the correction of US stocks, but on Saturday, domestic time, it withstood the pressure of the continued correction of US stocks and completed its rebound. , and continued to rise slightly over the weekend, and also completed a strong breakthrough on the weekly line. The trading volume of the exchange continued to rise to 33 Billion USD. As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 24901.2, up 13.47% during the week, with an amplitude of 17.83%; Ethereum closed at At 1696.07, it rose 12.08% during the week and the amplitude was 18.55%. The news this week is actually not very good, but rather negative. First, the SEC sued Paxos for issuing BUSD as an unregistered security. Then Paxos announced the end of its partnership with Binance on BUSD and gave BUSD one year. It will be fully supported and redeemable until 2024. In addition, there are rumors that Binance will delist Altcoin in the United States. However, this rumor has been refuted by CZ. Coinbase stated in its official Twitter statement that stablecoins are not securities. , but a fairer and more efficient financial tool. Perhaps the current functions and popularity of stablecoins have affected the legal currency itself to a certain extent, and what will follow will be a greater degree of supervision. Coinbase also expressed its welcome to regulatory agencies and policies Framers have conversations about this.

1. Summary of industry trends

Industry News

Last week, the crypto market followed the U.S. stock market and had a major correction. It closed for 8 consecutive trading days and had a large decline on Thursday and Friday. The market is still in the game of raising interest rates in the next few months, but the overall upward trend has not been affected. Breaking through, Bitcoin has also been supported at 21,500. Exchange liquidity is still at recent highs, with no obvious fluctuations, and trading volume fluctuating around 30 billion. As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 21938, down 4.32% during the week, with an amplitude of 8.73%; Ethereum closed at 1538.29, down 5.58% during the week, with an amplitude as high as 12.55%. Another reason for this round of crypto market decline is that Coinbase CEO tweeted rumors that the SEC intends to cancel cryptocurrency pledge services for U.S. retail investors. This rumor has not been confirmed but it once set off a "American 94" in the market. slogan. We should treat this FUD rationally. The SEC's attack on Kraken this time mainly lies in the false promotion of the annualized return rate of pledges. It provides pledge services and uses this as a name to create a model of absorbing savings and raising interest rates. From the perspective of market performance, this incident was a big thunder but little rain, and it did not have much impact on the price. It also shows that market participants are currently very "educated".

In this study, we will

Share the comparison and business chain analysis of the three leading digital asset management companies and exchanges licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.

Consolidate and record interviews with a Hong Kong professional law firm and compliance personnel regarding the Hong Kong No. 1479 license.

Analysis of VASP virtual asset service provider license

Analyze CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF & Ethereum Futures ETF application path

1. Licensing case of leading digital asset management company Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission

Case sharing 1:

Xinhuo Technology license holder:#L4& L9

At present, New Huo Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited, a subsidiary of New Huo Technology, has successfully obtained Type 4 (providing advice on securities) issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. and a Category 9 (providing asset management) license; Xinhuo Asset Management (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. also obtained a money services business registration license (MSB) issued by the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Agency (FinCEN); obtained the Canadian Financial Transaction and Report Analysis Center MSB license issued by (FINTRAC).

1. Summary of industry trends

Industry News

The crypto market experienced a slight correction last week. The correction mainly occurred after the release of Friday’s larger-than-expected non-agricultural data. The market may be worried about repeated inflation. At the same time, it can be regarded as a technical correction after a month of consecutive gains. Exchange liquidity is still at There is no obvious fluctuation at the recent high, and the trading volume fluctuates around 30 billion. As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 23113.69, down 2.65% during the week, with an amplitude of 7.50%; Ethereum closed at 1643.4, down 0.07% during the week, with an amplitude as high as 10% .

Looking at U.S. stocks, the Federal Reserve's first interest rate meeting in 2023 ended last week. In line with market expectations, it raised interest rates by 0.25%, bringing interest rates to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. The meeting statement pointed out that employment growth has been strong in recent months, the unemployment rate has remained low, and inflation has eased but remains high. The Federal Open Committee insists on maintaining the 2% inflation target and will continue to raise interest rates and continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and assets. Mortgage-backed securities, the two major tools of raising interest rates and shrinking balance sheets, will continue. Powell then delivered a speech at 14:30 EST. In today's speech, Powell repeatedly mentioned price stability, determined to reduce inflation to below 2%, and mentioned that large and rapid interest rate increases should be transformed into small interest rate increases. This statement could be interpreted as dovish by providing the committee with more time to analyze the effects of raising interest rates. The market began to surge after Powell's speech, which directly consolidated the technical pattern of U.S. stocks' rebound and bottoming. The S&P quickly reached and stood firm on the annual line, and the Nasdaq also touched the annual line pressure and had a certain probability of breaking through. The non-farm payrolls were announced on Friday. The number of non-agricultural employment surged by 517,000, far exceeding the expectation of 185,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate hit a 53-year low of 3.4%. However, the hot labor market did not cause too much of a blow to the market. , on the contrary, the Nasdaq still ended with a positive line after many repetitions during the day, which represents the resilience of the market rebound. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that service inflation will rise due to rising wages, causing the market to worry about recurring inflation. We can wait until the February inflation data to find out.

1. Summary of industry trends

Industry News

This month is an unprecedented month for the crypto market. Bitcoin has risen from around US$16,500 at the beginning of the month to over US$23,000 in less than 4 weeks. The return rate within the month is close to 40%, which is basically the best value in ten years. The best "January" is that market transactions are extremely active, and the transaction volume has increased from 11 billion at the beginning of the year to more than 33 billion. As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 23557.96, an increase of 12% in two weeks; Ethereum closed at 1614.92, Up 4.05% in two weeks. Looking back at the entire industry over the past year, this bear market has passed the most painful and rapid decline stage after experiencing two major black swan events. The market is also in a stage of gradually restoring confidence, looking for new narrative logic, and The rectification stage. Major institutions have also become more active and have published articles looking forward to the future. The keywords for 2023 are still concentrated on ZK Layer 2, parallel computing (APT, SUI), MEV, decentralized exchanges and Ethereum upgrades. wait. The narrative has also settled from the more superficial gameFi, metaverse, etc. to the underlying technology and infrastructure. The market is also re-laying the foundation for the next round of bull market.

1. Policy Overview

As the largest financial trading market in Asia, Hong Kong is an important bridge for many mainland financial institutions to seek external development. Compared with the difficulty of applying for a financial license in the mainland, the Hong Kong securities and futures market adopts an access system. As long as you meet the requirements of the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission, you can apply. Among the 10 types of licenses managed by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission, each type of license corresponds to a piece of business. To engage in corresponding business, you must obtain the corresponding license. Only after obtaining the license can you become a licensed person specified by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission.

License No. 1–10

2. License classification

Note: This article was written on January 12, 2023. The data may deviate from the current market conditions.

1. Macro

Macroeconomic data and events have a greater impact on the market, and there will be violent fluctuations when the data is released.

inflation

In 2022, affected by easing, war, and supply chains, U.S. inflation will hit a 40-year high. From the data point of view, inflation has peaked, but it is still far away from the Fed's 2% to 3% target.

Update: At 21:30 on January 12, Beijing time, the annual U.S. CPI rate in December was 6.5%, in line with expectations, and the core CPI rate of 5.7% was in line with expectations. Inflation has fallen further, and it is expected that the positive impact of relevant data will gradually decrease in 2023.

1. Summary of industry trends

Industry News

Last week, the crypto market rose sharply following the U.S. stock market. Bitcoin rose more than 5% for three consecutive trading days after strongly breaking through the weekly line on Wednesday. This led to a big rebound in the entire crypto market, and the trading volume also increased significantly. It rose from less than 10 billion U.S. dollars last week to 20 billion U.S. dollars. The market's long-short ratio quickly reversed, causing the liquidation of 100 million U.S. dollars in short positions (the liquidation data in 24 hours on January 14 was 650 million U.S. dollars). As of writing, Bitcoin closed at 20783.38, up 21.68% during the week, with an amplitude of 24.45%; Ethereum closed at 1552.81, up 20.37% during the week, with an amplitude of 24.03%. Last week's rise was first of all a big blow to the short side. Binance's contract positions fell by nearly 15% in a short period of time. This was basically a decrease in positions caused by short stop losses or liquidation. However, from the perspective of stablecoins, the main driving force for this rise is no obvious inflow of mainstream stablecoins. The supply of stablecoins this week is basically the same as last week. Therefore, this rise is mainly driven by existing funds. There is no new capital inflow for the time being. At the same time, there are voices in the market saying that CME Bitcoin futures positions increased by US$250 million last week, which may be one of the main drivers of this increase.