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Bitcoin Halving Cycle Curse: Has This Bull Market Really Ended?
Bitcoin Halving Cycle Deep Dive: Historical Patterns and the Current Reality's Intense Collision------This article purely extrapolates from Bitcoin's historical halving cycles, which involve numerous uncertainties and should be viewed rationally!
Dear friends, today we analyze whether the bull market will end or continue through the Bitcoin halving cycle. According to historical patterns, when exactly is the bottom of this cycle? And what does the current rebound after breaking 100000 mean?
1. Accurate Review of Historical Cycles and Future Extrapolation First of all, we must acknowledge the regularity of historical data, but we also need to see the subtle differences within it:
Midnight highlights Ethereum, as seen in the chart below, it has clearly formed a standard head and shoulders pattern. After testing the neckline area of 3030 in the evening, it continued to decline, indicating that the head and shoulders pattern is established. During the day, we suggested a short at 2950 and added positions at 3030, with an average price around 2990. In the live session, we advised everyone to add positions again around 2915 and reminded everyone to reduce positions by 80% (short-term) at the 2840 area. Thus, the midnight strategy still leans bearish. You can refer to this
$ETH . The current resistance is near 2915, which was a previous minor support. If it breaks down, it has a chance of becoming resistance. Additionally, the 2960 area is a Fibonacci 0.38 resistance, along with the head and shoulders neckline at 3000 and 3030. Everyone can gradually lay out short positions, and stop-loss should be set above 3090. For those trading short-term, pay attention to whether 3030 can again hold resistance. If it unexpectedly breaks through, set a stop-loss at 50% around 3065 or exit directly (in my opinion, the recent high will only reach around 3050). Targets to focus on are the areas below 2840 and 2750 (reduce positions by 80%). The remaining positions can be gambled around 2620~2600 and extreme spikes near 2440.
$BTC . During the day, we advised everyone to short around 87500~88100, which was stopped out at 89500 during the evening spike. Subsequent messages also indicated that 90500~91000 would be the next resistance. After the price touched around 90400, it began to pull back to the current price of around 86300. Therefore, at midnight, everyone can focus on the upper area of 87800~88100~88800 to gradually lay out short positions. Stop-loss should be placed above 89800, with the target continuing to focus on around 86300~85600~83800 (reduce positions by 80%). The remaining positions can be gambled around the extreme positions of 80600 and 78500, near 70800.
The above is just Jiang Feng's personal opinion. The market is ever-changing and has many uncertainties, so please pay attention to risk control. Profit and loss are your own responsibility! #ETH走势分析
江枫资本
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In the end, it just can't hold up anymore. I have to say this market is a bit of a dog. After finishing short positions, it's time to go long again. In the live stream, I let the $ETH 2950 short position add to the position at the 3030 head and shoulders neckline, with an average price around 2990. After the four-hour closing around 2915, I told the brothers in the live stream to add to their positions again directly. Now we've come to the 2840 level. Short-term players should reduce their positions, and those who need to take profits should take profits. For those who added positions around 2915, now is the time to reduce all added positions. Long-term friends should pay attention to the next key resistance around 2750. No matter what, we need to reduce 80% of our positions here, and the remaining base position can be used to gamble in the 2620 to 2600 area! Congratulations to those who persisted until the end! #ETH走势分析
In the end, it just can't hold up anymore. I have to say this market is a bit of a dog. After finishing short positions, it's time to go long again. In the live stream, I let the $ETH 2950 short position add to the position at the 3030 head and shoulders neckline, with an average price around 2990. After the four-hour closing around 2915, I told the brothers in the live stream to add to their positions again directly. Now we've come to the 2840 level. Short-term players should reduce their positions, and those who need to take profits should take profits. For those who added positions around 2915, now is the time to reduce all added positions. Long-term friends should pay attention to the next key resistance around 2750. No matter what, we need to reduce 80% of our positions here, and the remaining base position can be used to gamble in the 2620 to 2600 area! Congratulations to those who persisted until the end! #ETH走势分析
江枫资本
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Bearish
Ethereum surged to 3030, which is also our position for adding to our holdings, and has now started to retrace. The average price is around 2990, and it has also come below 2900, which helps to recover some of the losses. Let's be patient for now. Those with heavy positions should consider reducing their holdings. If it effectively breaks 2915, there is still a chance to test 2750. Bears, don't be timid! #ETH走势分析
Ethereum surged to 3030, which is also our position for adding to our holdings, and has now started to retrace. The average price is around 2990, and it has also come below 2900, which helps to recover some of the losses. Let's be patient for now. Those with heavy positions should consider reducing their holdings. If it effectively breaks 2915, there is still a chance to test 2750. Bears, don't be timid! #ETH走势分析
江枫资本
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Bearish
Unfortunately, the short position of the pancake has been stopped out today, with resistance near 90500 ~9 1 0 0 0 above. Currently, the head position of Ethereum at 2950 is waiting to be replenished at 3030~3060. Everyone should pay attention and control their positions. This sudden big bullish move caught us a bit off guard, and the computer lost connection, interrupting the live broadcast. After fixing it, we will start again, #ETH走势分析
Unfortunately, the short position of the pancake has been stopped out today, with resistance near 90500 ~9 1 0 0 0 above. Currently, the head position of Ethereum at 2950 is waiting to be replenished at 3030~3060. Everyone should pay attention and control their positions. This sudden big bullish move caught us a bit off guard, and the computer lost connection, interrupting the live broadcast. After fixing it, we will start again, #ETH走势分析
江枫资本
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BTC rebound weakly hindered at 88000, ETH3000 ceiling-level pressure, where is the bottom of the bear market?
Under the dual impact of macro pressure and institutional selling, the crypto market experienced a collapse-like decline followed by a rebound that faced resistance at the psychological barrier of 88000 USD. Ethereum's rebound was hindered by the key support at 3000 USD. Market sentiment has reached a freezing point, and the trend is clearly bearish; any rebound is an opportunity to short in line with the trend. During this period, we shorted from 94000, then to 92800, 92300, and along with yesterday's 87500~88100~89200 shorts, we have received market validation one by one. After the latest data was released, it touched 87700 and directly dropped to around 86000. Short-term players made a comfortable gain of about 1500 points. The subsequent price started to rebound but only reached 88100 before facing downward pressure. The current average price is around 87800, and currently at the 86400 level, there is still some profit space! Ethereum has been suggested for shorting at 3000~3030~3060, but unfortunately, it started to retrace near the highest point of around 2982. We then advised to directly chase 3000 to add to the position at 2945, and it is still being held!
Intraday thoughts $ETH 2950 first position has been entered, add positions near 2980~3060, $BTC 87000 first position has been entered, if it can go to 88000 ~89000 then it’s fine to add positions in batches, the rest will follow the article👌lock in for 21:00 in the evening, see you in the live broadcast room #ETH走势分析
江枫资本
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BTC rebound weakly hindered at 88000, ETH3000 ceiling-level pressure, where is the bottom of the bear market?
Under the dual impact of macro pressure and institutional selling, the crypto market experienced a collapse-like decline followed by a rebound that faced resistance at the psychological barrier of 88000 USD. Ethereum's rebound was hindered by the key support at 3000 USD. Market sentiment has reached a freezing point, and the trend is clearly bearish; any rebound is an opportunity to short in line with the trend. During this period, we shorted from 94000, then to 92800, 92300, and along with yesterday's 87500~88100~89200 shorts, we have received market validation one by one. After the latest data was released, it touched 87700 and directly dropped to around 86000. Short-term players made a comfortable gain of about 1500 points. The subsequent price started to rebound but only reached 88100 before facing downward pressure. The current average price is around 87800, and currently at the 86400 level, there is still some profit space! Ethereum has been suggested for shorting at 3000~3030~3060, but unfortunately, it started to retrace near the highest point of around 2982. We then advised to directly chase 3000 to add to the position at 2945, and it is still being held!
BTC rebound weakly hindered at 88000, ETH3000 ceiling-level pressure, where is the bottom of the bear market?
Under the dual impact of macro pressure and institutional selling, the crypto market experienced a collapse-like decline followed by a rebound that faced resistance at the psychological barrier of 88000 USD. Ethereum's rebound was hindered by the key support at 3000 USD. Market sentiment has reached a freezing point, and the trend is clearly bearish; any rebound is an opportunity to short in line with the trend. During this period, we shorted from 94000, then to 92800, 92300, and along with yesterday's 87500~88100~89200 shorts, we have received market validation one by one. After the latest data was released, it touched 87700 and directly dropped to around 86000. Short-term players made a comfortable gain of about 1500 points. The subsequent price started to rebound but only reached 88100 before facing downward pressure. The current average price is around 87800, and currently at the 86400 level, there is still some profit space! Ethereum has been suggested for shorting at 3000~3030~3060, but unfortunately, it started to retrace near the highest point of around 2982. We then advised to directly chase 3000 to add to the position at 2945, and it is still being held!
Midnight Bitcoin Market Brief --- Bitcoin near 88000 is an important watershed for cost rounds, and both long and short positions are about to trigger.
During the day, we reached $BTC 87500 ~88100 ~89200 short positions. After the evening data was released, it peaked around 87770 and began to pull back, with a low reaching 86000. For short-term players, 1500 points is enough to eat. The price surged again to around 88143, currently averaging around 87800. The trend of $ETH today is relatively weak, with a maximum only reaching around 2982. The short positions around 3000 failed to enter, and the live room let everyone chase the initial short around 2945. If you came in, just be patient and wait; the midnight strategy continues to favor shorts!
Bitcoin's upper resistance near 88100 has currently become an important support level, as well as a watershed for long and short positions, so this is a crucial position. It is also near the Fibonacci retracement at 0.618 and the previous expansion line resistance. It can be said to be a key ceiling level of resistance. If the price can stabilize above 88000 USD, accompanied by an increase in trading volume, this could potentially become a key support level. It may touch the next resistance area of 92000-94000 (probability 30%). Focus on participating in high shorts around 88100 in the evening, and to prevent false breaks, you can appropriately add once near the next resistance level of 89000. The stop loss should be set above 90000, and the target should focus on the lower levels around 86000 and 83800, which include psychological support from previous lows and the convergence of the 100-week moving average and the long-term upward trend line, regarded as the most critical structural support. Once this support is lost, it may open up larger downside space, with targets possibly pointing to 74500 USD. (Recommendation: reduce positions by 80% at 838 and then gamble on 80600~78500~74500.)
Ethereum currently still faces strong pressure around 3000, 3030, and 3060. From the four-hour chart, a standard head and shoulders pattern can be seen. The upper area around 3000 ~3060 is the neckline area, which is worth considering for participating in high shorts. The midnight strategy can continue to focus on these positions for high shorts! The stop loss needs to be placed above 3130, with targets focusing on around 2915~2850~2800, and reducing positions near 2750 by 80%, to gamble around 2620 and 2440 (positions should be controlled within an acceptable wide stop loss!).
The above is only Jiang Feng's personal opinion for reference; profits and losses are at your own risk! #美国非农数据超预期
Data release slightly increased, our $BTC 87500 nearby short positions continued to decline, with a minimum reaching around 86000, $ETH 3000~30300~3060 short but the highest only came to 2982 before probing down to the 2885 line. The live broadcast asked everyone to chase short positions at 2945, let's wait patiently first. If the price unexpectedly rebounds, everyone can replenish positions in batches according to the original strategy! Join the live broadcast for a discussion on the subsequent trends! #美国非农数据超预期
江枫资本
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Bearish
December 16, $BTC $ETH Market Analysis Summary
The previous article mentioned that based on macro news and technical analysis, it is highly likely that the subsequent market will continue to maintain a bearish trend. We won't elaborate further here. Friends who want to check the trading logic can refer to the previous article. Here, we will directly share the entry and exit points!
Ethereum focus: short in batches around 3000~3030~3060, target 2915~2750 (reduce position by 80%) and then look for trades around 2620 and 2440, with defense set above 3095 (specific stop-loss points will be updated in real time)
Bitcoin focus above: short in batches around 87500~88100~89200, target around 85000~83800 (reduce position by 80%) and look for trades around 80600~78500 and 70800! (It may not reach, but reducing position by 80% and keeping some for another trade is still possible!)
The above is just Jiang Feng's personal opinion for reference, profits and losses are at your own risk! #ETH走势分析
The previous article mentioned that based on macro news and technical analysis, it is highly likely that the subsequent market will continue to maintain a bearish trend. We won't elaborate further here. Friends who want to check the trading logic can refer to the previous article. Here, we will directly share the entry and exit points!
Ethereum focus: short in batches around 3000~3030~3060, target 2915~2750 (reduce position by 80%) and then look for trades around 2620 and 2440, with defense set above 3095 (specific stop-loss points will be updated in real time)
Bitcoin focus above: short in batches around 87500~88100~89200, target around 85000~83800 (reduce position by 80%) and look for trades around 80600~78500 and 70800! (It may not reach, but reducing position by 80% and keeping some for another trade is still possible!)
The above is just Jiang Feng's personal opinion for reference, profits and losses are at your own risk! #ETH走势分析
江枫资本
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Japan shifts to tightening, and above $87000 may be a good shorting opportunity
Writing while monitoring the market is not easy; composing a comprehensive market analysis article from macroeconomic to technical aspects takes about 4 to 5 hours, unlike those KOLs who easily copy points everywhere. I hope everyone can like and support each other! Thank you 🙏 Now let's move on to today's topic: The Bank of Japan is about to make its most aggressive interest rate decision in 30 years, tightening the liquidity faucet for global risk assets. The price of Bitcoin appears to be on the verge of collapse under the dual pressures of macroeconomic stress and technical resistance. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a 30-year high this week, with market predictions placing the probability at 97%. This key macro decision is impacting the price of Bitcoin.
Japan shifts to tightening, and above $87000 may be a good shorting opportunity
Writing while monitoring the market is not easy; composing a comprehensive market analysis article from macroeconomic to technical aspects takes about 4 to 5 hours, unlike those KOLs who easily copy points everywhere. I hope everyone can like and support each other! Thank you 🙏 Now let's move on to today's topic: The Bank of Japan is about to make its most aggressive interest rate decision in 30 years, tightening the liquidity faucet for global risk assets. The price of Bitcoin appears to be on the verge of collapse under the dual pressures of macroeconomic stress and technical resistance. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a 30-year high this week, with market predictions placing the probability at 97%. This key macro decision is impacting the price of Bitcoin.
In the square, we bury ourselves in drawing K lines and analyzing the market, while they look up and perform "Storytelling".
The louder they tear, the more traffic increases. The more detailed our calculations, the colder the page.
Last night, after the Nth revision of the technical analysis report, I verified the holding data of the resistance level at 90 4 0 0 USD and the strong support level of 3 1 5 0 ~3 1 7 5 three times before clicking publish. Scrolling through the square, the trending topics on the homepage were: "A certain big shot and a certain god confronting each other from afar, Season 3," "Shocking secrets: What did those two top streamers actually say in the live broadcast?", "Don’t regret not watching: The love story of KOLs."
I stared at the reading count of my article, like staring at a straight line so smooth it feels despairing.
Here’s an absurd equation: A detailed macro review + three technical indicators cross-validation + clear stop-loss and take-profit points ≈ A few likes. A conversation screenshot with no beginning or end + a suggestive line of "You know what I mean" + @two big V accounts that can't stand each other = A traffic frenzy.
It seems we are participating in a wrong exam. The exam paper's title is "In-depth Analysis of Fundamentals and Technicals," but some found that submitting a blank paper and starting a fight in the exam room can earn applause and attention from the audience. As a result, those who answer questions seriously seem both lonely and a bit foolish.
The algorithm of the square may love "the warmth of human activity." Precise charts are too cold, and rigorous logic is too quiet. However, gossip and mutual tearing have warmth, sound, and a sense of drama filled with grievances and grudges, which is the most humanly satisfying kind of "爽文." Traffic is like a crowd chasing after excitement; wherever the volume is loud and the drama is rich, they flock there.
So, those of us who are still analyzing techniques, looking at data, and calculating points, are we like traditional craftsmen in the digital age? Holding on to skills that seem a bit clumsy to others, believing that the market will ultimately reward clarity and patience, rather than mere noise.
But occasionally, we wonder: in this square, when the depth of "analysis" is forever defeated by the breadth of "plot," is our persistence in "seriousness" a background or a trump card?
If you resonate with this, feel free to give a like or leave your thoughts. At the very least, we can let this river of "serious people" know of each other's existence. #加密市场观察
The stock market is the best place to see yourself clearly.
Chasing highs is because you cannot suppress your greed, while selling off is because you cannot withstand your fear. You dare to go all in simply because of your inherent gambling nature, and you stubbornly hold on to your losses because you are afraid to admit your failures.
Perhaps every operation you make is imprinted with the fundamental colors of your personality, and every profit and loss precisely reflects the causality of your understanding. When your trading frequency gradually decreases, and you can calm down and patiently wait for that moment of certainty to appear, you have freed yourself from the restlessness of trading.
When you calmly let go of 20 opportunities in a row, just to grasp that perfect rhythm that resonates with your understanding, you have truly broken the thief in your heart when you place your order again. The stock market is not lacking in opportunities; even if you just missed one, don’t rush. Opportunities are like buses; another good one will soon emerge.
I believe that stock trading is the inner practice of a monk; your greed, fear, and foolishness will be fully displayed in the market's fluctuations. And the process from self-discovery to self-awareness may also be the most important meaning of life. #巨鲸动向 #BinanceABCs
Ethereum peaked at 3177, the live broadcast provided the entry point at 3150~3175 just right to get in, and then it dropped all the way down to around 2985 now, achieving the first and second targets. Appropriately reduce positions to aim for the final target around 2940. Congratulations to friends watching the live broadcast today, closed eyes picked up over 170 points! Use invitation code: BTC20242 to register. Click on the homepage to join the chat room to discuss daily trading strategies together! #ETH走势分析 $ETH
Brother Ma Ji has been liquidated again. Is there any hedging, trying to gain traffic? Otherwise, I really can't think of why every time I invest more, it crashes! How much U is needed to blow up? If it really doesn't work, I will operate for you. I will take a 70% loss, and you will bear the 30%. If there's a profit, you will take 70%! #ETH走势分析